eMjae Frazier performs on the floor exercise at the 2024 Super 16

Data Deep Dive: Simulating the 2024 National Championships

Now that regionals competition has wrapped up, we ran another 10,000 simulations of our postseason model, this time featuring only the eight teams that have punched their tickets to nationals, to get updated probabilities for each to bring home the title. For background on the model methodology and to view the pre-regionals results, see our article on the 2024 postseason simulator. For these runs, we lowered the impact of injured athletes, weighted more recent scores more heavily than scores from earlier in the season, and also prioritized road scores over home scores. For the first time, we also tracked how often individuals won each title over the course of the 10,000 runs!

Team Results

Semifinal Team Finalist Top 3 Top 2 Champion

Based on the numbers above, it’s clear that the second semifinal is expected to be more competitive than the first, mainly for the second advancement spot after Oklahoma. In the first semifinal, the odds are particularly poor for Stanford to advance, likely due to early season performances that linger in our model despite our methodology of more heavily weighing the recent meets. But the Cardinal already overcame long odds to make it this far, and it’s possible it happens again. Arkansas is given just below a 10% chance to advance to the final in our model, but the Razorbacks are peaking at the right time and could be dangerous should other teams falter.

For the evening session, the simulation predicts a closer race for the second qualifying position between the two survivors of the Gainesville regional, Florida (45%) and Utah (42%). Florida outscored Utah in both rounds of the regional, especially in the final where the Utes struggled, so it’s unsurprising to see the odds slightly in the Gators’ favor. Don’t discount Alabama either; the 13% odds to advance may seem small, but the Crimson Tide finished ahead of the Gators at the SEC championship and are capable of doing it again.

Looking at the championship predictions, two-time reigning champion Oklahoma is unsurprisingly the heavy favorite, coming out on top in 82% of simulations. LSU is the only other team with at least a 10% chance in our model, and California is in third with just below 5%. These two teams have proven they can reach the same enormous totals OU has been putting up for much of the season, so if they bring their A-games on the day of the final, we could be in for an exciting finish.

Individual Results

Haleigh Bryant25.24%Haleigh Bryant21.84%Jordan Bowers20.83%Ragan Smith36.94%Jade Carey24.01%
Jordan Bowers22.27%Mya Hooten13.69%Audrey Davis16.73%Maile O'Keefe15.73%Raena Worley23.75%
Jade Carey16.23%Sierra Brooks12.80%Haleigh Bryant14.94%Konnor McClain11.82%Gabby Wilson19.43%
eMjae Frazier8.02%Mya Lauzon11.09%Leanne Wong12.27%Mya Lauzon10.29%Jordan Bowers14.19%
Leanne Wong7.29%Katherine LeVasseur7.99%Mara Titarsolej9.42%Ava Siegfeldt8.76%Aleah Finnegan13.09%
Katherine LeVasseur5.72%Jordan Bowers6.35%Jade Carey7.40%Abby Paulson7.02%Chae Campbell11.28%
Luisa Blanco4.79%Jaedyn Rucker5.05%Gabby Perea5.88%Haleigh Bryant6.52%Haleigh Bryant8.95%
Mya Lauzon4.21%Luisa Blanco4.67%Lily Smith5.69%Chloe Widner5.97%Sierra Brooks6.00%
Faith Torrez2.64%Victoria Nguyen3.90%Grace McCallum5.04%Faith Torrez4.09%Grace McCallum5.78%
Anya Pilgrim2.41%Lilly Hudson3.90%eMjae Frazier4.35%eMjae Frazier3.73%Chloe Widner5.18%

New for this year, we have the top 10 finishers on each event! In the all-around, it should be a surprise to no one to see Haleigh Bryant top the list, considering her season low is 39.525 and she’s given us the highest total of the season in her 39.925 on March 8. Jordan Bowers matched that number on March 23 and has been consistently excellent throughout the season, so she follows closely in the odds. Bryant is also in the top 10 in the odds on every individual event, and Bowers in all but beam. Floor looks to be the most wide-open event, with six individuals given at least a 10% chance of taking home the title.

Want to try this simulation yourself?

You're in luck! Click the simulate button below, and tables will appear showing the results of both semifinals and Four on the Floor! We've also added in individual event winners using the scores from the teams and individual qualifiers. Click the button again to run a new simulation. Counts of wins will show up under the "Win Count" header. Be sure to share your results on social media!


Win Counts

READ THIS NEXT: Judge’s Inquiry: Breaking Down Every Perfect 10 From Regionals

Simulation script and article by Jenna King; on-page simulation by Izzi Baskin


  1. I am confused, how can the percentages for the top 10 individual winners on FX add to over 130%? The top 6 alone add to over 100%. BB adds to over 100% also. And then on vault, the total for the top 10 is low, but I guess there could be a bunch of people winning 1 – 2% of the time?

    1. There can be ties for titles, so more than one person can win. That means percentages don’t necessarily need to add to 100%.

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