Kiya Johnson at the 2024 Women's Gymnastics National Championship

Data Deep Dive: Simulating the 2024 National Final

After a shocking day of semifinals, we’re doing something we’ve never done before: updating our simulator for Four on the Floor. Oklahoma was previously given over 80% chance to win the national title, so the Sooners’ absence in the final has an astronomical impact on our model. We’ve re-run the simulator 10,000 times and added scores from the semifinal into the pool of scores available to the model. We did not change any parameters from our post-regionals run, with later season scores being prioritized over early season, scores from injured athletes being less likely to be chosen, and road scores being more likely to be used than home scores.

Team Results

The table below shows the percentage of model runs in which each team won the national title.

TeamPercentage of runs
No. 2 LSU53.22%
No. 3 California24.64%
No. 4 Florida12.51%
No. 5 Utah9.63%

It’s not surprising to see LSU emerge as the favorite in these results, given that the Tigers posted the highest score in the semifinal and now have eight 198-plus team scores on the season, including six of their last seven meets. Cal is capable of matching LSU’s scores but has not been as consistent over the last month, posting only one score over 198.000 in its last five meets. Florida and Utah’s chances may seem small from these results, but they are also more than capable of beating LSU and Cal if they hit to their fullest potential; in fact, Florida has a win over LSU on its resume this season, as does Utah over Cal.

As we saw yesterday, winning a title ultimately comes down to who hits well on the day; what happened earlier in the season doesn’t matter. Our model attempts to quantify how likely it is that each team will live up to its potential, and those numbers favor LSU at the moment. If all four teams have a good day, it should be an extremely close and exciting meet.

Want to try this simulation yourself?

You're in luck! Click the simulate button below, and your Four on the Floor outcome will appear below! Click the button again to run a new simulation. Counts of wins will show up under the "Win Count" header. Be sure to share your results on social media!


Win Counts

READ THIS NEXT: Projected 2024 NCAA Nationals All-Americans

Simulation script and article by Jenna King; on-page simulation by Izzi Baskin and Jenna King

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