Week 10 is where postseason dreams start becoming reality—or slipping away. Regional qualifying scenarios are tightening across NCGA, senior nights are adding emotion to already high-stakes matchups, and top-10 SEC showdowns could reshape the national pecking order. From the automatic bids on the line at NCGA regionals to a heavyweight clash between LSU and Florida in Gainesville, every routine carries added weight. With simulations highlighting just how slim the margins are between advancing and going home—or between statement win and missed opportunity—here’s what to watch as the regular season barrels toward its conclusion.
Must-Watch Meets
NCGA-East Regional
Saturday, March 7 at 5 p.m. ET | Free live stream
Prediction: 48.5% Brockport, 35.0% Cortland, 9.8% Ursinus, 4.0% Rhode Island College, 2.5% Ithaca, 0.1% Others
If the past few years have proven anything, nothing is written in stone until the very last salute, as the top two teams will automatically qualify alongside a smattering of individuals. The Golden Eagles qualified over Cortland last year by nearly half a point, but both Cortland and at-large qualifier Rhode Island College outperformed them at nationals. This year, Ursinus is the one most likely to apply pressure for its piece of the ticket.
Erin Roe has been lighting up the Ursinus record book, most recently notching not only a new record for the Bears but an NCGA-East all-around record with a 38.950 (which is also the second-highest in NCGA history), making Ursinus a very real threat. But, should the Bears miss out as a team, an outstanding performance from Roe should send her to nationals as an individual. Rhode Island College’s Payton Greene and Aaliyah Krause will be very nearby if not. Grace Murray of Ithaca should punch her ticket on vault as well as floor, alongside Jillian Freyman. Murray made history this season as the first Ithacan to compete a front-handspring front pike half.
Notes about the predictions: We see a 45% chance that Brockport and Cortland are the two automatic qualifiers to NCGA nationals. However, there’s a 25% chance that Ursinus dethrones one of the top two here. Ursinus only has an outside chance of getting an at-large bid to nationals, so its best bet is getting in the top two at regionals. Winning on bars would give it the best chance of doing so.
NCGA-West Regional
Saturday, March 7 at 7 p.m. ET | Paid live stream
Prediction: 56.3% UW-Oshkosh, 22.1% UW-La Crosse, 21.5% UW-Whitewater, 0.1% Others
Winona State will host the springboard for automatic entry to the postseason for two of the three most dominant teams across not only the West but the entire NCGA in Oshkosh, La Crosse, and Whitewater. Those who follow the West closely will feel a sense of deja vu, as those three teams have found themselves atop the West the past two seasons after regionals. For those just joining, welcome to the home of DIII teams that comfortably and handily defeat programs outside of their division.
As of now, there are just two contenders, both from Gustavus Adolphus, vying for the singular automatic all-around spot in the West, Cara Wong and Zara Reboks. Frankie Jo MacAskill, from host Winona, could also very well clinch a ticket to nationals—she’s leading floor in the West—as should teammates Taylor Magierka or Gabby Kraft. The schedule, as of Tuesday afternoon, has Oshkosh closing out the night session on beam, La Crosse wrapping up on floor, and Whitewater finishing on bars. Eau Claire, the most likely to give any of those teams a run for their money, will be in the late session as well.
Notes about the predictions: There is a 99% chance the automatic qualifiers out of this session will be two of UWO, UWL, and UWW, but which two is up for grabs. Each of these three teams have an event that they are the favorite on: UWO on vault, UWL on beam, and UWW on floor. La Crosse and Whitewater have the widest range of predicted scores on bars and beam, respectively. Either team winning on its own inconsistent event would make it a favorite to win this regional.
LSU at Florida
Sunday, March 8 at 6 p.m. ET | SECN
Prediction: 53.9% Florida, 46.1% LSU
A senior night showdown caps the weekend as Florida hosts LSU in the O’Dome. LSU arrives after a demanding double-meet weekend, edging Alabama by just under four tenths in a dual before capturing the Purple & Gold Challenge title with its third 198 of the season against Alabama, Arizona, and North Carolina. Kailin Chio saw her vault stick streak end but responded with back-to-back perfect 10s on beam and a career high on bars.
Florida counters with momentum of its own after setting a program record on beam, punctuated by Skye Blakely’s first career perfect 10. Vault, however, remains the lingering concern; another sub-49 rotation cost the Gators a chance at their first 198 since January. LSU is seeking its first win in Gainesville since 2018, while Florida looks to avenge last season’s narrow dual-meet loss decided by just one tenth. With senior night emotion in play, expect intensity—and little margin for error—between two national title contenders.
Notes about the predictions: This No. 2 vs. No. 4 matchup leans slightly toward the home team, Florida, though its win probability has dipped steadily since week one. If Florida posts another sub-49 vault score—its third in four weeks—LSU’s chances of victory jump to 86%.
Upset Alert
Minnesota at North Carolina
Friday, March 6 at 7 p.m. ET | ACCNX
Prediction: 84% Minnesota, 16.1% North Carolina
North Carolina has embodied consistency this season, scoring in the 196s every week until narrowly missing that mark last time out. Minnesota, meanwhile, has experienced more fluctuation. The Golden Gophers are coming off a season high and have shown the ability to post big numbers, but they’ve also been vulnerable to shakier performances on the road. On paper, a hit meet favors Minnesota comfortably—but North Carolina is well-positioned to capitalize on mistakes and will be motivated to rebound.
This matchup also highlights an impressive freshman class. Sydney Seabrooks continues to shine, adding another 9.950 on floor last week. At the Minnesota Big Four, Arianna Ostrum captured the all-around title. While Ostrum and Seabrooks draw much of the attention, the steady contributions of Lacie Saltzmann and Anna Pearl Stanley could prove just as pivotal.
Notes about the predictions: Minnesota holds the advantage on every event except vault, where the teams are evenly matched. North Carolina has surpassed 49.000 on all four events twice this season; repeating that would boost its win probability to 37%. Matching the 49.125-plus standard it achieved two weeks ago would flip the outlook entirely, giving the Tar Heels a 62% chance at the upset.
Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.
There’s Other Stuff Happening Too
We’d be remiss to let a preview for week two go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.
- Oklahoma travels to Arkansas for the Razorbacks’ senior night; Arkansas saw its first perfect 10 ever scored by Morgan Price at its last home outing, so another could definitely be on deck in the last home meet of the year.
- UCLA and Stanford are both having impressive seasons due in large part to Jordan Chiles and Ana Bărbosu, respectively; those athletes have a history you may have heard of, and this is their first time meeting since Paris.
- Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, and Pittsburgh convene for Elevate the Stage Huntsville, always a fun quad meet that should be especially competitive this year.
- Fisk, Wilberforce, and William & Mary meet for the HBCU Classic on Sunday, the last one to feature Fisk before the program is discontinued.
Fantasy Corner
If you’re diving into fantasy gymnastics this year, you’re aiming to crush it—right? Fantasy Central has you covered with smart tips and strategic insights all season long. Tara Graeve and data editor Dara Tan will keep you up to speed on injuries, scoring trends, under-the-radar waiver wire gems, and everything else you need to stay ahead of the competition.
CGN Pick’em
Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks, then tune into the meets to see how well you do!
How to Watch
Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.
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Article by the editors of College Gym News
