Nine weeks of the regular season have come and gone, leaving only three before conference championships and postseason selection. Like it or not, it’s already time to start looking at the regionals qualification bubble, and this year things look a little different with the changes in NQS calculation. As a reminder, the new postseason-qualifying NQS is calculated using a maximum of five home meets (if there are more than five, only the lowest five are included), all road meets, dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the remainder. A team must have at least five road scores and nine overall scores by the end of conference championships to qualify to the postseason. For full details on the postseason format, see our Resources page on the topic.
Each year in this series, we take a look at each “bubble” team’s highest possible NQS after the coming weekend’s slate and discuss what they’ll need to do to finish in the top 36 and make regionals. With the changes to NQS, we’ll also calculate each team’s lowest possible NQS, since the new calculation makes it possible for a team’s NQS to decrease as well as increase. This week, we’ll stick only to team discussion, adding in potential individual qualifiers next week.
Let’s start with a postseason bracket projection based on current standings. Teams in bold are located within 400 miles of a host site, so we have placed them accordingly (geography does not matter for the top 16 seeds). The remaining teams were placed using a mixture of geography and conference alignment while attempting to keep the playing field as level as possible.
Note: While official rankings are released each Monday, we are using unofficial NQS rankings following the March 2 Utah State at Southern Utah meet throughout this article. In addition, we are using the officially documented NQS formula for Weeks 7+, which states that only five home scores should be included at this point in the season. This affects Missouri, which currently has six home scores. Road To Nationals has Missouri ranked No. 7, but dropping the extra home score results in a No. 8 ranking.
Lexington
Baton Rouge
Tempe
Corvallis
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Florida
8. Missouri
7. Arkansas
6. Georgia
5. UCLA
9. Michigan
10. Stanford
11. Michigan State
12. Utah
16. Penn State
15. California
14. Clemson
13. Minnesota
20. Ohio State
17. Auburn
19. Iowa
18. North Carolina
22. Kentucky
21. N.C. State
23. Denver
24. BYU
28. Utah State
27. Maryland
26. Southern Utah
25. Oregon State
33. Central Michigan
31. Nebraska
30. Arizona
29. San Jose State
35. Penn
34. Air Force
32. Arizona State
36. Washington
In past years, we’ve seen several examples where geographical proximity to a regionals host has caused teams ranked higher than No. 29 to compete in the play-in round, but this year the chances of that appear to be small. Lexington is within 400 miles of numerous gymnastics programs, but at the moment, the majority of them are ranked either in the top 16 or outside the top 36. The other three regional hosts have very few teams located within 400 miles, so it’s unlikely we will see geography wreak havoc on the bracket this year. On the flip side, that makes the bracket more difficult to predict, especially with only one host currently ranked in the top 16; the above bracket is only a guess at what the committee might do if the decisions were to be made today, so it is by no means set in stone. Note that the official NCAA mileage calculator is no longer available to the public, so we used Google Maps to determine which programs are within 400 miles of host sites; this may not exactly match the NCAA’s numbers.
Overall NQS Picture
Above is a chart showing each of the top 45 teams’ current NQS, minimum possible NQS after this weekend, and maximum possible NQS after this weekend. We’ll reference this chart when discussing bubble teams below. In general, if a team’s three dots are further apart, that means it has more of a chance to make a move (whether positive or negative) this weekend, while teams with dots closer together have less of a chance of controlling their own destiny.
Bubble Teams
For this article, we’re assuming every team currently ranked in the top 20 will make it to the postseason ranked at least No. 28, which is an important cutoff since play-in rounds should theoretically contain teams ranked No. 29 through No. 36. So we’ll be examining teams currently ranked Nos. 21 through 45 today. Scores with a strikethrough indicate they are currently being dropped from the NQS calculation as either an excess home score, season high, or season low. If a team has an asterisk (*) next to its name, that means the team has two meets this coming weekend; for these teams, we use the season high plus one point to calculate the maximum NQS, and we use the season low minus one point to calculate the minimum NQS. If a team has two asterisks (**) next to its home scores, that means the team will have more than five home scores by the end of the regular season, so excess scores will be dropped once there are six or more home scores.
No. 21 N.C. State
Current NQS
196.4
Road Scores
197.15, 196.625, 196.1, 196.075, 195.875, 195.575
Home Scores
197.125, 196.7, 196.575, 196.125
Highest Possible NQS
196.4833
Lowest Possible NQS
196.3083
Highest Possible Ranking
14
Lowest Possible Ranking
23
Meets Remaining
2 away, 1 home
No. 22 Kentucky
Current NQS
196.3542
Road Scores
197.325, 197.125, 195.775, 194.925
Home Scores
197.025, 196.8, 196.475, 194.325
Highest Possible NQS
196.4929
Lowest Possible NQS
196.0643
Highest Possible Ranking
14
Lowest Possible Ranking
26
Meets Remaining
2 away, 1 home
No. 23 Denver*
Current NQS
196.2875
Road Scores
196.95, 196.0, 195.925, 195.85
Home Scores
196.6, 196.575, 196.525, 196.1
Highest Possible NQS
196.5781
Lowest Possible NQS
196.0531
Highest Possible Ranking
14
Lowest Possible Ranking
26
Meets Remaining
3 away, 1 home
Owing to the tight NQS cluster from No. 14 Clemson to No. 22 Kentucky (see the red dots in the chart above), the rankings in this region have the potential to vary widely by this time next week. No. 23 Denver gets added into the group of teams where a No. 14 ranking is theoretically possible due to its two meets this weekend.
BYU, Oregon State, and Southern Utah are in a comfortable state right now, with another week in the top 28 secured. BYU can secure a top 24 ranking with a 196.625 this weekend, while Oregon State can ensure being ranked in the top 26 next week with a 195.900.
No. 27 Maryland*
Current NQS
195.8083
Road Scores
196.675, 196.275, 196.2, 195.025
Home Scores
196.05, 195.7, 195.6, 194.625
Highest Possible NQS
196.15
Lowest Possible NQS
195.3875
Highest Possible Ranking
22
Lowest Possible Ranking
35
Meets Remaining
4 away, 1 home
No. 28 Utah State
Current NQS
195.8056
Road Scores
196.875, 196.075, 195.825, 195.675, 195.4, 195.35
Home Scores**
196.325, 196.025, 195.875, 195.7, 195.05
Highest Possible NQS
195.8056
Lowest Possible NQS
195.6639
Highest Possible Ranking
26
Lowest Possible Ranking
31
Meets Remaining
2 away, 1 home
Maryland and Utah State are currently in position to avoid first-round competition but are in danger of dropping outside of the top 28 this weekend. Utah State can guarantee at least a No. 28 ranking with a 196.225, while Maryland’s scenarios are more complicated due to having two meets.
No. 29 San Jose State
Current NQS
195.6643
Road Scores
196.0, 195.475, 195.175, 195.075, 194.675
Home Scores
196.35, 196.1, 195.925, 195.9
Highest Possible NQS
195.75
Lowest Possible NQS
195.5406
Highest Possible Ranking
27
Lowest Possible Ranking
34
Meets Remaining
2 away, 1 home
No. 30 Arizona
Current NQS
195.6357
Road Scores
195.825, 195.35, 195.25, 195.0, 193.35
Home Scores**
196.8, 196.625, 195.975, 195.425
Highest Possible NQS
195.7812
Lowest Possible NQS
195.35
Highest Possible Ranking
27
Lowest Possible Ranking
36
Meets Remaining
1 away, 2 home
No. 31 Nebraska
Current NQS
195.6208
Road Scores
196.825, 195.9, 195.25, 195.2
Home Scores
196.025, 195.75, 195.6, 194.6
Highest Possible NQS
195.7929
Lowest Possible NQS
195.475
Highest Possible Ranking
27
Lowest Possible Ranking
34
Meets Remaining
3 away
No. 32 Arizona State
Current NQS
195.5179
Road Scores
195.95, 195.75, 195.55, 195.475, 194.925, 194.425
Home Scores
196.05, 195.875, 195.1
Highest Possible NQS
195.5844
Lowest Possible NQS
195.3812
Highest Possible Ranking
28
Lowest Possible Ranking
35
Meets Remaining
2 away, 1 home
San Jose State, Arizona, Nebraska, and Arizona State cannot fall out of the top 36 this weekend, but they’re all going to need help from higher-ranked teams if they want to have a chance of moving up into the top 28. The highest ranking any of these teams can guarantee is No. 29, as Nebraska can reach that with at least a 196.750.
No. 33 Central Michigan
Current NQS
195.375
Road Scores
195.925, 195.9, 195.275, 195.25, 194.75
Home Scores
196.075, 195.0, 194.9
Highest Possible NQS
195.475
Lowest Possible NQS
195.2857
Highest Possible Ranking
29
Lowest Possible Ranking
40
Meets Remaining
2 away, 1 home
No. 34 Air Force*
Current NQS
195.3214
Road Scores
196.3, 195.825, 195.75, 195.675, 194.225, 193.95
Home Scores
195.8, 195.225, 194.75
Highest Possible NQS
195.65
Lowest Possible NQS
194.9056
Highest Possible Ranking
28
Lowest Possible Ranking
46
Meets Remaining
2 away, 2 home
No. 35 Penn*
Current NQS
195.235
Road Scores
195.8, 195.075, 194.85, 194.075
Home Scores
196.0, 195.55, 194.9
Highest Possible NQS
195.5964
Lowest Possible NQS
194.7607
Highest Possible Ranking
28
Lowest Possible Ranking
46
Meets Remaining
5 away
No. 36 Washington
Current NQS
195.2
Road Scores
196.475, 195.775, 194.65, 194.425, 193.575
Home Scores
196.3, 195.625, 195.225, 194.4
Highest Possible NQS
195.3594
Lowest Possible NQS
194.9969
Highest Possible Ranking
32
Lowest Possible Ranking
46
Meets Remaining
3 away, 1 home
Central Michigan, Air Force, Penn, and Washington round out the current top 36 teams but are all in danger of falling outside of the regionals field this weekend. CMU can guarantee staying in by scoring at least 195.025 this weekend, while Washington can do so with a 196.200. Air Force and Penn have double meets, so they have plenty of opportunity to increase their NQS this weekend.
The remaining teams in this list are currently outside the regionals field but technically have a chance at moving into the top 36 should many factors go their way. However, setting new season highs would go a long way in improving their chances of moving into a qualifying position in the coming weeks.
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