The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 10

While the majority of teams are squeezing every last bit out of their scores for NQS purposes, the postseason gets underway for the majority of DIII teams with NCGA regionals this weekend. Which teams will advance to nationals? The outlook isn’t as clear as it may seem. Plus, in 2024, new qualifying procedures for DIII teams take effect, with the top two teams from each regional automatically advancing and the top two at-large teams from SAS rankings added to round out the field. Learn more about SAS and qualifying here.

Must-Watch Meets

NCGA-East Regional

Brockport, Cortland, Rhode Island College, Springfield, Ursinus, and Utica at Ithaca

Saturday, March 9 at 1 p.m. ET | Free Live Stream

Probability of automatically advancing: 99.30% Brockport, 42.77% Ithaca, 26.75% Rhode Island College, 16.08% Cortland, 9.27% Ursinus, 6.71% Springfield, 0.01% Utica

With a new qualifying procedure debuting in 2024, the fight for the top two spots will be more fierce than ever. This meet is Brockport’s to win and everybody else’s to fight out for the final automatic bid. It will be the closest fight in years, with Ithaca likely to advance next, but it’s not as clear-cut as years past. The home advantage will be crucial, as the Bombers have been fantastic there, mostly struggling to come back after a mistake and not letting one fall turn into five on the road. Other contenders include Rhode Island College, which has had a record breaking season, and Cortland, which ranks ahead of the Anchorwomen in the standings.

With Stout and Whitewater currently in a position to take the at-large spots, the underdogs in the East will really need to put on a show to either upset for an automatic bid or stir up the rankings with a huge score to add to their SAS.

Additional notes about the predictions: Brockport is the favorite to win and is very likely to advance to nationals. However, the race for the second automatic qualifying spot is much closer. Ithaca is the next most likely to advance, and the key to its success will be bars. Scoring in the top two on bars gives it a 75% chance. If Rhode Island College can also be in that bars top two, its chances of advancing increase to 66%. Springfield will be hoping to finish first on bars to give it a 50% chance of advancing. Ursinus is going to be looking to finish in the top two on both beam and floor to increase its chances of advancing to 71%.

NCGA-West Regional

Gustavus Adolphus, UW-Eau Claire, UW-La Crosse, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stout, UW-Whitewater, and Winona State at Hamline

Saturday, March 9 at 3 p.m. ET | Free Live Stream

Probability of automatically advancing: 87.83% Oshkosh, 78.66% La Crosse, 27.64% Whitewater, 6.39% Stout, 0.47% Eau Claire, 0.17% Winona State, 0.01% Hamline, 0.01% Gustavus Adolphus

This competition will be a fight between the four Wisconsin schools with Oshkosh and Lacrosse taking a strong lead. After not qualifying last year, Whitewater is coming back with a vengeance and can absolutely put it together for a potential upset. Stout has also had a tremendous season and currently sits tied for fifth in the SAS rankings; it’ll be looking for a strong score to contribute to its SAS and claim an at-large bid to nationals should it not finish in the top two teams here. If the rankings stay the same, both Stout and Whitewater will advance if the top ranked teams in the East and the West claim the automatic qualifying spots.

Additional notes about the predictions: Oshkosh and La Crosse are very likely to get the automatic qualifying spots from this regional and will be battling it out for the top spot. Whitewater could pull off an upset, however, and finish in the top two. Beam will be crucial for Whitewater, and finishing in the top two on that event increases its chances of getting an automatic spot to 50%. Stout can also pull off an upset if it finishes in the top two on bars and floor, increasing its chances of automatically advancing to 54%.

Podium Challenge

Auburn, George Washington, LSU, and Texas Woman’s

Friday, March 8 at 7 p.m. ET | TBD

Prediction: 96.45% LSU, 3.53% Auburn, 0.01% George Washington, 0.01% Texas Woman’s

Barring disaster, this should be an easy win for LSU. The team is already locked into the top four ahead of regionals, so while a big road score to boost its NQS would be nice, this is fundamentally a low-stakes opportunity for the Tigers to get some experience on a podium ahead or rest tired bodies ahead of the postseason push.   

Similarly, Auburn will be a four-seed regardless of how it fares in the remainder of the regular season, though a strong performance here would provide some much-needed momentum after a shaky performance last week against Georgia.

George Washington and Texas Woman’s are both outside the regionals bubble but are imminently capable of keeping the pressure on both SEC Tigers, particularly for the individual event titles. Kendall Whitman is one of the finest floor workers in the country while Daisy Woodring is coming off of a perfect 9.950 on vault two weeks ago.

Additional notes about the predictions: LSU is the strong favorite here. Even counting a fall, it has a 73% chance of winning. However, it will be a very important road score for all teams involved since this is a neutral site meet. LSU can guarantee itself a No. 2 ranking next week, regardless of California’s score, with a score of 198.100, which has a 13.6% chance of occuring. The Tigers have an 85% chance of scoring at least a 197.450, which would prevent Florida from passing them. Auburn needs a score of 197.550 to have a chance at a higher ranking next week. However, there is only a 1.4% chance of it reaching that score. A more likely outcome, with a 44% chance of occurring, is scoring at least a 196.900, the score needed to avoid being passed by Ohio State.

Georgia at Michigan

Friday, March 8 at 7 p.m. ET | BTN+

Prediction: 77.66% Michigan, 22.34% Georgia

Georgia really put all the pieces together on senior night last week, but now it has to walk into Crisler on Flip for Chip night, traditionally a very good meet for the Wolverines. Michigan put up a respectable 197.325 at Oklahoma while going five-up on floor to rest Carly Bauman. With a number of injuries and limited depth, it’s unlikely Michigan will rest many lineup stalwarts in this one.

The Gymdogs need a strong road number; their top four scores all came at home, and they haven’t hit a road 197 yet. Last week’s success was due in large part to continued improvement on vault and a big floor hit. They’ll need the power events looking strong again to put up a usable number.

Additional notes about the predictions: Coming off its season high 197.550, Georgia has a 22% chance of beating Michigan. The key to a win will be posting the higher score on either beam or floor, which gives Georgia a 45% chance. Scoring higher on both events gives Georgia a three in four chance. Even without a win, the Gymdogs can move as high as No. 15 this week if they score at least a 197.475, but we only see this outcome in 1% of our simulations. More likely is passing both Arizona and Arizona State, which has a 40% chance of being locked in with a score of 196.925. Michigan cannot move up in the rankings this week, but will be hoping for a season high to avoid dropping in the rankings. 

Utah at Arizona

Friday, March 8 at 9 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Insider

Prediction: 96.05% Utah, 3.95% Arizona

These two teams are putting out their best gymnastics at the right time, as Utah and Arizona both enter the weekend in search of some big numbers. The Utes could tie for the Pac-12 regular season title with a win and a California loss, but the Red Rocks are looking for their first road-198 of the season to help boost their NQS and keep their position in the top five. The usual suspects–Maile O’Keefe and Grace McCallum–have been leading stout bars and beam lineups, but keep an eye out for Makenna Smith. She’s been Utah’s lone all-arounder most meets but was pulled from beam and floor lineups last week following an awkward vault landing. It’s presumed to be precautionary, but her presence is vital for the Utes long term.

Arizona is no longer in the race for the conference regular season crown but is sitting just a few ranking spots outside of the top 16 at No. 19. Longtime leader Malia Hargrove is back after missing a few meets nursing a minor lower body injury, while Abigayle Martin has stepped up huge as a freshman to aid in the Wildcats’ surge up the rankings this season with a shot at regionals seeding.

Additional notes about the predictions: Utah is very likely to walk away with another win this week, even without Amelie Morgan. The question will be whether it can score high enough on the road to pass Florida and move back into fourth. A score of 197.900 would give it a chance of this outcome, but there’s only a 6% chance of the Utes scoring that high. Arizona’s target should be at least a 196.675, which has a 41% likelihood of occuring, giving it a chance of moving above in-state rival Arizona State in the rankings.

UCLA at Arizona State

Saturday, March 9 at 3 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 78.04% UCLA, 21.96% Arizona State

While neither team is still in contention for the Pac-12 regular season title, this dual still carries weight in the conference and regional seeding conversations. A win will lock up the Bruins for another evening session appearance at the conference meet, as they sit at 4-2 in the standings, while Arizona State at 3-3 also need at least a W.

Selena Harris has been a rock for UCLA all season, typically competing in the all around while key role players like Chae Campbell and Nya Reed boost the team total with their success on vault and floor. The Sun Devils sit just outside the top 16 as Hannah Scharf continues to be their leading all-arounder in her fifth season. Her ability to hit needs to be backed by standout meets from Emily White, Sarah Clark, and Jada Mangahas for Arizona State to make up ground in the race for the top 16.

Additional notes about the predictions: UCLA has relied on Selena Harris for its success so far this season, putting her in the all-around in every meet so far. If UCLA decides to rest her this week, its win chances drop to just 57%. Arizona State’s best chances of winning come if it can score higher on floor. Doing so raises its win chance to 45%. Even more important than a win, however, is getting a usable score for their NQS; the Sun Devils have a 66% chance of raising it this week. 

Eastern Michigan, Florida, and Lindenwood at Nebraska

Saturday, March 9 at 7 p.m. ET | BTN+

Prediction: 98.92% Florida, 1.06% Nebraska, 0.01% Eastern Michigan, 0.01% Lindenwood

Four teams representing four conferences? Sign me up. Each team will be glued to their calculators to determine if their scores can go in their proverbial win column for NQS purposes, no matter the final rankings. Raisa Boris has emerged as the MAC’s top all arounder, outpacing Nebraska’s Emma Spence and Csenge Bacskay – who will have the home advantage this week. Gator freshman Anya Pilgrim is coming fresh off her first 10.0, and will add to the packed all around field either as the lone Gator, or alongside Leanne Wong if she puts up four routines. Jaly Jones has been slotted as the Lions’ all around force in the last six meets, and may be joined by fellow sophomore Nya Kraus.

Additional notes about the predictions: Florida should walk away with the win pretty easily at this quad. Even resting Leanne Wong, the Gators still have a 96% chance of taking home the win. Doing so with another 198-plus gives them a chance of passing No. 3 LSU in the rankings next week. Nebraska will want at least a 196.800 to have a chance of moving up in the rankings as well, which has a 12% chance of occurring. Eastern Michigan could also make a jump with a droppable 195.325 and a 21% chance of beating that score. 

California at Stanford

Sunday, March 10 at 5 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 98.55% California, 1.45% Stanford

With a chance to be the sole winner of the Pac-12 regular season title on the line, California will travel to Stanford for its final conference dual of the season. The Cardinal is 1-5 against Pac-12 foes while the Golden Bears are undefeated with six wins; with a seventh it would be the first program other than Utah to win sole possession of the title (the regular season title debuted in 2020) and for the first time since 2021 with the last two seasons have ended in four-way ties.

While Mya Lauzon has been California’s steady all-around star all year, the key to success lately has been eMjae Frazier consistently scoring in the same echelon–something she did only occasionally in 2023. The Golden Bears’ four-pronged all-arounder attack, with Madelyn Williams and Ella Cesario joining aforementioned dynamic duo, has only been defeated by the top-ranked Sooners this season. Stanford’s best shot at upsetting the No. 2 team rides on Chloe Widner, who has been spectacular of late while working back into lineups from injury, still scoring 9.9 or better on three events. Also keep an eye out for Anna Roberts, the Cardinal’s sophomore phenom who is also popping back into lineups after an offseason injury.

Additional notes about the predictions: Neither California nor Stanford can move up in the rankings, so both teams will be looking for scores to boost their NQS as much as possible. California is very likely to walk away with another win but will want to do so with a score higher than 197.875; it has a 27% chance of reaching that mark or higher. For Stanford, our simulations show that it has a 57% chance of increasing its NQS by reaching a score of at least 196.725.

Oklahoma at Arkansas

Sunday, March 10 at 5 p.m. ET | SECN+

Prediction: 99.73% Oklahoma, 0.27% Arkansas

Coming off of a double meet weekend, one might think the Sooners would show signs of fatigue, but it appears this team is only getting better. Ragan Smith has gotten four 10s in a row on beam while Audrey Davis finally got her first career 10 on bars. For Arkansas, the home momentum will be massive, as this meet will be moving to Bud Walton Arena, an electric environment for the team in years past. It’s also coming off of a program record score against Missouri, and with that momentum plus the home crowd, things could get really interesting. Look for Lauren Williams and Maddie Jones to lead the charge: They’ve had remarkable seasons thus far as the Razorbacks pursue a trip to nationals.

Additional notes about the predictions: Could we be on 199 watch this season? Our simulations show a max possible score of 198.900 for the Sooners, so it’s seeming more and more possible. Arkansas already has its best NQS in school history, but it will be looking to improve that further this week. There is a 26% chance of it scoring a 197.250 or better, which is the score the Razorbacks need to prevent Missouri from passing them in the rankings. 

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week 10 go by without bringing up these additional points.

• The annual Cy-Hawk meet for state of Iowa dominance could be closer than ever. The Cyclones haven’t been home since Jan. 26, and are coming off of a 196.700 after a midseason slump.
• Maryland heads to Towson in another battle for state bragging rights. Maryland is sitting as the last team into regionals and could use a big away number; there’s a 195.525 hanging in its NQS. Both teams have a recent 197 on the books, so this one should be a nail biter.
• Denver will be looking to capitalize on big upside in its NQS, with a road 196.900 to drop. It heads to Missouri with New Hampshire and SEMO.   
• MAC foes Kent State and Western Michigan will duke it out in Kalamazoo for the Broncos’ senior night. Kent State has the edge, coming off of a 197.200 at home last week. The Golden Flashes are looking to drop a 195.525 from their NQS, which with a 196.800 would lead to a No. 18 ranking, securely out of the regionals bubble conversation.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 3-3; Overall: 31-23)

• Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State
• Penn State at Southern Utah: Penn State
• Kent State at Western Michigan: Kent State
• NCGA-East Regional: Brockport, Cortland
• NCGA-West Regional: La Crosse, Whitewater

Claire (Last Week: 3-3; Overall: 30-20)

• Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State
• Penn State at Southern Utah: Penn State
• Kent State at Western Michigan: Kent State
• NCGA-East Regional: Brockport, Ithaca
• NCGA-West Regional: Oshkosh, La Crosse

Elizabeth (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 34-16)

• Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State
• Penn State at Southern Utah: Penn State
• Kent State at Western Michigan: Western Michigan
• NCGA-East Regional: Brockport, Ithaca
• NCGA-West Regional: La Crosse, Oshkosh

Emily M (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 36-14)

• Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State
• Penn State at Southern Utah: Penn State
• Kent State at Western Michigan: Kent State
• NCGA-East Regional: Brockport, Cortland 
• NCGA-West Regional: Oshkosh, La Crosse

Rebecca (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 32-18)

• Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State
• Penn State at Southern Utah: Penn State
• Kent State at Western Michigan: Kent State
• NCGA-East Regional: Brockport, Ithaca
• NCGA-West Regional: Oshkosh, Whitewater

Week 10 Guest: Naomi

• Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State
• Penn State at Southern Utah: Penn State
• Kent State at Western Michigan: Kent State
• NCGA-East Regional: Brockport, Ithaca
• NCGA-West Regional: Oshkosh, La Crosse

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: Bubble Watch: March 6

Article by the editors of College Gym News