The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 9

Must-Watch Meets

We have officially entered NQS time of year, which means teams are looking to make their case for regionals or to secure a favorable or seeded spot in the postseason. If you haven’t been paying close attention up until this point, it’s time to start.

Alabama at LSU

Friday, March 1 at 6 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 77.29% LSU, 22.71% Alabama

Week eight was a mixed bag for LSU: The Tigers fell to SEC rival Florida, but banked a valuable 197.950 on the road and proved they can indeed post nationally competitive scores outside the PMAC. Meanwhile, Alabama cruised to victory over visiting Georgia with a season-high 198.075, the highest team score (and second 198) under second year head coach Ashley Priess Johnston. Unfortunately, the team also lost fifth year Makarri Doggette to a leg injury during warm-ups. Senior Shania Adams stepped up in a big way, contributing a pair of 9.950s on bars and beam. The Crimson Tide will need to turn in a similar caliber performance if it hopes to upset the surging Tigers on their home turf. 

Additional notes about the predictions: The recent injury to Makarri Doggette hurts Alabama’s chances of winning this meet, lowering its chances from 27% to 22%. Beam will be the most important event here; if Alabama can post the higher score then it becomes a 50/50 matchup. LSU’s ranking at the end of the week depends on how California scores, but Alabama can guarantee entering the top 8 with a 197.85, which has a 5% chance of occuring at this meet.

Michigan at Oklahoma

Friday, March 1 at 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 99.09% Oklahoma, 0.91% Michigan

This meet has become an annual tradition, and a fun one. Oklahoma won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023, and then the Wolverines came from behind to take the dual at home with a huge 49.700 floor rotation last year. This year, things look a little more predictable than usual. Michigan is in a building year—although still sits at No. 7 with a 197.510 NQS, so things aren’t exactly dire—while the Sooners are having an absolute romp of a season. If it’s possible, they look more formidable than ever before, with even more strong exhibition routines in the tank. This will be a good test for the Wolverines heading into the postseason, and a nice headliner as they prepare to do battle with Michigan State for the Big Ten title in a few weeks.

Additional notes about the predictions: Oklahoma continues to look unbeatable this season with a 99% chance of winning, even against a top 10 opponent. The event Michigan is most likely to win is floor, with a 26% chance of scoring higher than the Sooners on the event, but even in that case the Wolverines still only have a 2% chance of winning the meet. Michigan may be unlikely to pull off the win in Norman, but it will be hoping to score at least a 197.675, which has a 4% chance of occurring. With this score, Michigan cannot drop in the rankings and has a chance of moving up to 6th, depending on how Kentucky fares this weekend.

UCLA at Stanford

Friday, March 1 at 8 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 79.77% UCLA, 20.23% Stanford

Be on the lookout for some potentially exciting comebacks in this week’s matchup between Stanford and UCLA. The Cardinal got its job done at Utah last week, going 196.625, allowing them to drop the 193 against Michigan from earlier this season. Stanford will be happy with that same performance here, but heading into post-season the team needs to start worrying about patching up some vulnerabilities, most glaringly on vault where it’s only been able to muster five gymnasts into the lineup for most of the season. Perhaps this could be a great time for someone like… Chloe Widner to make a comeback? Please?

UCLA is coming off a 197.775 against California with important performances on bars and beam. Emma Malabuyo’s two week absence raised questions about The Bruins’ bars and beam depth, but a season-high 49.575 on bars and a 49.450 on beam showed UCLA does have other gymnasts who can fill in on those events with comparable scores. With Malabuyo returning to the lineups this week, UCLA will be in a good position to climb the NQS rankings.      

Additional notes about the predictions: We expect Emma Malabuyo to be back at UCLA this week, helping the Bruins keep a strong advantage over Stanford. If she is not back in her usual form, UCLA’s win percentage drops to 72%. Either way, Stanford has an uphill battle to beat UCLA this weekend, but its best chance of doing so comes if it wins on both beam and floor, giving it a 72% chance of winning the meet. Event without the win, Stanford will be hoping to score at least a 196.75, which has a 52% chance of occurring. This would guarantee The Cardinal passes #22 Penn State regardless of Penn State’s score this weekend. UCLA could jump as high as 5th this week, with a droppable 196.55. The Bruins need to score at least a 197.9, which there is a 3% chance of, to have a shot at the 5th place ranking, but it will also depend on what other teams score. UCLA has a 68% chance of scoring at least a 197.075, which keeps it from dropping in the rankings this week.

Utah at California

Saturday, March 2 at 5 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Insider

Prediction: 77.08% California, 22.92% Utah

As the Pac-12’s two preseason favorites, and the last two remaining teams with undefeated conference dual-meet records, this showdown between the Utes and Golden Bears should decide who claims the regular season championship–with the winner earning at least a share of the title. California is coming off a tremendous outing at UCLA, where it posted a program-best 198.400 and will be the favorite at home, but you can’t count out Utah as it has also been above 198.000 this season and has been the conference’s leader the last few seasons.

eMjae Frazier and Mya Lauzon have been a force leading the Golden Bears all season; Lauzon has been ranked in the top five nationally from the get-go and Frazier is able to pop off for some massive numbers–like her contribution to last weekend’s program-best 39.825. Each notched a perfect 10 last week (Lauzon on beam and Frazier on floor), as did Red Rock Grace McCallum on floor. McCallum has only been used in the all around sparingly in 2024, often sitting out vault, but if she’s on her game and renowned beam anchors Abby Paulson and Maile O’Keefe stay hot, Utah will have a chance.

Additional notes about the predictions: California is the favorite to win this meet coming off its program high. Utah will continue to compete without Amelie Morgan, lowering its win chances from 28% to 23%. However, if Utah can post the higher score on bars, then the Utes become 55% favorites to win. Even with a season-high and a win this week, Utah cannot pass California in the rankings. The Utes will be looking to score at least a 197.925 to guarantee maintaining their top four ranking, which has a 5% chance of occurring. California can secure itself a #2 ranking next week with a 197.950 regardless of what LSU scores, which has a 17% chance of occurring. 

Florida at Kentucky

Sunday, March 3 at 2 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 69.11% Florida, 30.89% Kentucky

This meet should be a close one, with just four hundredths elevating Florida over Kentucky in the NQS rankings. After cracking 198 for the first time in a crucial win over LSU, the Gators are heading into this meet with increased confidence and clout. The Wildcats have yet to break into the 198 zone, although they have come close several times this season and will be looking for redemption after a surprising loss to Arkansas. They’ll need to bring back their early-season momentum and swagger to take down the Gators, whose scores have improved week after week. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Kentucky’s second lowest score of the season last week lowered their win chances for this meet from 40% to 31%, but we still expect this meet to be a close one with 17% of our simulations coming down to less than a tenth. Kentucky’s best chances of winning come on beam, where if it posts the higher score it has a 59% chance of winning this meet. Win or lose, Florida has a 30% chance of scoring a 197.75, which is the score needed to prevent Kentucky from passing it in the rankings. Kentucky, on the other hand, needs at least a 197.575, a score that occurs in 28% of our simulations, to have a shot at passing Florida if the Gators falter.

Upset Alert

Ball State, Towson and West Virginia at Penn State

Friday, March 1 at 6 p.m. ET | BTN+

Prediction: 62.44% Penn State, 20.32% Ball State, 16.89% Towson, 0.35% West Virginia

We love a good sneaky upset alert around here and this is one we have our eyes on. Even though Penn State has the higher NQS, Ball State has come into its own as of late and is looking to improve upon its NQS with a solid road number. Don’t count out the Towson Tigers, however; despite its NQS, it set multiple records last time out and could hop into postseason play with a good showing. West Virginia is on the outside looking in for postseason as of right now, but it appears to be getting back one of its key gymnasts in Emma Wehry after a concussion a few weeks back. If the Mountaineers can find their form, they aren’t out of this meet either.

Additional notes about the predictions: Ball State’s 197+ last week increased its win percentage from 14%, which was below Towson, to the most likely team to challenge Penn State. Ball State’s best chances come if it can score the highest on beam, which gives it a 58% chance of winning the meet. Penn State will be looking to score at least a 196.725 to have a chance of moving up in the rankings this week, which it has a 12% chance of scoring. Ball State could theoretically move as high as 18th this week, but a score of 197.65 is needed to do so, which is highly unlikely. A more likely possibility is Ball State scoring at least a 196.525, the score needed to have a shot at passing #21 N.C. State, which has a likelihood of 9%. Towson and West Virginia both have two meets this week, resulting in a lot of potential outcomes for their rankings.

Minnesota, UC Davis, and Washington at Boise State

Friday, March 1 at 9 p.m. ET | Free Live Stream

Prediction: 80.82% Minnesota, 9.76% Washington, 9.39% Boise State, 0.03% UC Davis

This cross-conference battle brings together four teams that are among the top in their own conferences. Minnesota is the favorite after qualifying to the evening session of the Big 10 championships, but it has dipped slightly in scoring as of late. Washington has yet to hit 197 this season, a number that is needed to help its NQS. UC Davis is having a roller-coaster ride of a season in terms of scoring, but Keanna Abraham and Megan Ray have led the way with consistent scores. Boise State has home-floor advantage and was the only team in this quad to hit 197 last time out, but there were some struggles from some of its steadiest competitors. Basically, this meet will come down to who can hit when it counts.  

Additional notes about the predictions: Boise State’s 197+ last week increased its win percentage from 6% to 9%, becoming just as likely to win as Washington. Minnesota is still a strong favorite to win here. On top of the win, Minnesota will be looking to score at least a 197.375, which it has a 3% likelihood of doing, in order to have a chance of passing #14 Auburn depending on Auburn’s score. Boise State has a 25% chance of scoring at least a 196.5, which is the score it needs to have a chance of passing #25 Ball State, depending on how Ball State scores this weekend.

Illinois State, North Carolina, and SEMO at Nebraska

Sunday, March 3 at 2 p.m. ET | BTN+

Prediction: 85.12% Nebraska, 8.31% North Carolina, 6.4% Illinois State, 0.17% SEMO

Well isn’t this just a fascinating quad! MIC foes Illinois State and SEMO get to face off about a month out of the conference meet. The Redbirds have held strong at the top of the conference all season, despite a seemingly constant revolving door of absences; its depth is almost unbelievably strong. SEMO, the Tennessee 10-fest aside, has hit a mid-195, so could stand up to the Redbirds’ number on a strong day. 

The Tar Heels finally had a major hit two weeks ago, putting up a 196.650 at home versus Pittsburgh. Despite dropping their next dual to Clemson last week, it’s a strong sign of life; and the score at Clemson was still a healthy 195.500. With two 194s hanging around in its NQS, a 195 or 196 should absolutely be the goal for North Carolina here.

Nebraska had an off day at Big Fives last week, with too many 9.7s in the mix to break 196. With a plethora of solid road scores, a big hit here would bolster the Huskers’ NQS, despite being at home. A mid-196 is certainly achievable, and it’ll be up to the early-lineup routines on bars and beam to make it happen.  

Additional notes about the predictions: Nebraska is very likely to pull off the win at this quad meet and with a droppable 195.875, expect big movement in the rankings. Its ranking will also depend on how the other teams score, but it has a 65% chance of scoring at least a 196.15 to move up one slot, and an 8% chance of scoring a 196.825 to move up five slots in the rankings. North Carolina has a 14% chance of scoring at least a 195.95 to avoid dropping a rank to Pennsylvania.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week nine go by without bringing up these additional points:

• Illinois heads to Ohio State for the Buckeyes’ senior night, along with Bowling Green and Kent State. After putting together back-to-back 196.850s, the Illini will be looking to keep the good momentum rolling.
• Air Force freshman and former three-star recruit Maggie Slife has become an all-around powerhouse. She and the Falcons host Mountain West foes San Jose State and Utah State on Friday. Slife has a realistic shot at the conference all-around title next month, and this tri should be a good preview of that battle.
• California hosts the Utes on Saturday: both teams broke the 198 barrier last weekend and will be looking to do so again. 

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 28-20)

• UWL & UWS at UWO: UW-La Crosse
• Ball State, Towson & WVU at PSU: Penn State
• Auburn at Georgia: Auburn
• UMN, UCD & UW at Boise State: Minnesota
• Utah at California: California
• ISU, UNC & SEMO at UNL: Nebraska

Claire (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 27-17)

• UWL & UWS at UWO: UW-Oshkosh
• Ball State, Towson & WVU at PSU: Towson
• Auburn at Georgia: Auburn
• UMN, UCD & UW at Boise State: Minnesota
• Utah at California: California
• ISU, UNC & SEMO at UNL: Nebraska 

Elizabeth (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 29-15)

• UWL & UWS at UWO: UW-Oshkosh
• Ball State, Towson & WVU at PSU: Penn State
• Auburn at Georgia: Georgia
• UMN, UCD & UW at Boise State: Minnesota
• Utah at California: California
• ISU, UNC & SEMO at UNL: Nebraska

Emily M (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 31-13)

• UWL & UWS at UWO: UW-Oshkosh
• Ball State, Towson & WVU at PSU: Penn State
• Auburn at Georgia: Georgia
• UMN, UCD & UW at Boise State: Minnesota
• Utah at California: California
• ISU, UNC & SEMO at UNL: Nebraska

Rebecca (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 28-16)

• UWL & UWS at UWO: UW-Oshkosh
• Ball State, Towson & WVU at PSU: Penn State
• Auburn at Georgia: Auburn
• UMN, UCD & UW at Boise State: Minnesota
• Utah at California: California
• ISU, UNC & SEMO at UNL: Nebraska

Week 9 Guest: Mary

• UWL & UWS at UWO: UW-Oshkosh
• Ball State, Towson & WVU at PSU: Penn State
• Auburn at Georgia: Auburn
• UMN, UCD & UW at Boise State: Washington
• Utah at California: California
• ISU, UNC & SEMO at UNL: Nebraska

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: The Dismount: Week 8

Article by the editors of College Gym News