The theme of this week is that we’re forced to accept that some of the trends we’re seeing so far this season are numerically real; we just don’t know if they’re really real yet. Emotionally real. Narratively real. We also continue to have a billion upsets, which is wonderful except when you’re trying to beat your friends at predicting results. I am so bad at it! Here’s what I’m curious about, musing on and perturbed by as we get used to the idea that this season is really happening.
Look, I’m running out of synonyms. Leave me alone.
Question: How do Florida and Oklahoma really compare to one another right now?
These two are clearly head and shoulders above the field right now, and by more than the rankings show. I’m just not sure who we should consider the frontrunner from an analytical perspective.
I’m not going to get too deeply into the question of scoring, because it makes the whole conversation more annoying and no more insightful. But it is difficult to get a handle on the reality of the Gators before they’ve left the O’Dome. I am a little worried about where vault is right now. I love the floor lineup, which has panache, as well as range. I’d love to see more freshmen, but given how things stand on the depth front, I get why it’s not happening. I’d definitely love to see the bars depth pushed a little more. (Ly Bui is absolutely stunning there, for one.) I don’t know. It’s a good team. I’m not quite sold on it as the top team in the country right now. But do we ever find out how good Florida actually is until finals day?
Oklahoma definitely isn’t its fully developed self either. Those floor landings need work. I love that McKenzie Estep and Ella Murphy are as good as I thought they’d be. I’m delighted to see Hannah Scheible back and think she has so much potential. I remain pretty perplexed about which sophomores are in which lineups. Oklahoma also hasn’t been home yet this season, so who knows what will happen this weekend versus Georgia.
I have more questions than answers right now. It’s definitely not one of those seasons where one team looks devastatingly good out of the gate. I think there’s ultimately not a lot to choose between these two right now. We’ll see them head-to-head over Valentine’s day weekend in Gainesville, which will be interesting. Maybe in a bad way.
Bonus Questions:
Is it time to believe in Georgia? This one got relegated to the bonus question section because I almost don’t want to say it too loudly. Next week in Norman, we’ll see where we are. But so much is going right in Athens right now. No. 1 floor team!!
After an amazing start, does North Carolina have what it takes to defend this ranking? February tends to be a test for early-season ranking upstarts: Is this a team that can keep up as other teams in the teens start posting 197s weekly? It will take a bit of work, primarily on bars, but it’s not impossible. We did warn you about Sydney Seabrooks.
Comment: Alabama is the realest of deals.
I had such high hopes for Alabama this year. I’ve said that before. I thought this freshman class had such spectacular potential, with more routines lurking on the roster that we hadn’t seen the full potential of yet. I’ve said that before, too. The Alabama that made nationals last year is much closer to the Alabama that lives in my head than the one that barely squeaked into SECs. I’ve been a true believer since Ashley Priess Johnston came back to Tuscaloosa.
The magic we’re seeing this season is arguably a touch overdue, but it’s no less remarkable for it. There are so many universes in which a recruit like Azaraya Ra-Akbar, an international elite with such spectacular talent but a notable injury history and very little recent competition track record, has a career that produces mostly tantalizing training clips and dreams. How lucky are we to live in the one where she’s SEC Gymnast (not Freshman!) of the Week in the second meet of her career instead? Jasmine Cawley being a beast is something I saw coming a mile away, but again, I’ve been wrong before. Kylee Kvamme expanding to other events is the kind of thing I annoy my friends by talking ad nauseam about in October on the basis of a single Instagram Story.
The pieces are all coming together, and the result is a team that looks every inch a true competitor for LSU, if not for Florida and Oklahoma. There are so few teams that fully make sense to me at this point like this one does.
Bonus Comments:
Minnesota’s got teeth. Making such quick work of this dangerous Iowa team in week one should have been a sign. This team has looked very convincing in back-to-back upsets over Arkansas and Michigan. The next two weeks should be routine, and then… UCLA visits Minneapolis in the first week of February. Do you want the giant slayer reputation? Because that feels possible.
The individual rankings are so delightfully goofy in January. Lauren Williams is the top vaulter in the country? Sure! Good for her, man! Abby Royer gets to be T-1 on floor because she literally wasn’t in the lineup for the first meet and then got a program record in the second? I hope her lock screen is a screenshot of Road to Nationals.
Concern: OK, fess up: Who broke the Kentucky?
What is going on?? Yes, a lot of good routines graduated, but Kentucky has such a strong track record of surviving generational transitions. When Mollie Korth graduated, sophomore Raena Worley was ready to handle all that pressure. When Raena Worley graduated, in with theatrical timing came Skylar Killough-Wilhelm. Did having a high-profile senior transfer last year somehow disrupt the synergy?
These freshmen should have been able to do a bit more than this, even with my favorite Isabella Edralin tragically injured again. Creslyn Brose being concussed also doesn’t help, but it shouldn’t scupper the entire team. There also (to state the obvious) hasn’t been a coaching change, which is sometimes the culprit when a team temporarily forgets how to function.
I can’t remember and couldn’t immediately track down the precise phrasing, but I remember being quite struck by the way the commentators at Sprouts were discussing Tim Garrison’s perception of the team’s lack of readiness on floor. That has been borne out, though the depth of the beam jitters has also distracted from it a bit. I wonder to what extent the team saw this coming internally and to what they attribute it. I don’t really understand.
Bonus Concerns:
There are some teams that very much should be regionals quality that I would like to get serious relatively soon. Washington, Illinois, Arizona: Looking at you, friends. Not in panic mode yet, but let’s get moving toward 196 sooner rather than later. I know you’ve got the routines.
I had hoped that West Virginia being a disaster was a phase we’d gotten through. Admittedly, last year also started rough and settled out, so there’s still hope.
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Article by Rebecca Scally
I’ve heard allot of comments about Clemson crashing on beam at the NC State meet. I watched the meet and I would like your thoughts on the scoring. It felt like Clemson was the better team that day. Something seemed off. I’ve read comments on that meet that indicate that they didn’t see it.