The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 6

As we near the halfway point in the season, lineups are starting to solidify, the front-runners are starting to appear from the back, and routines are starting to take shape in their postseason form. Plus, it’s almost NQS season, and strong scores are more important than ever.

Must-Watch Meets

Ball State at Central Michigan

Friday, Feb. 9 at 6 p.m. ET | TBD

Prediction: 84.68% Ball State, 15.32% Central Michigan

Two in-conference rivals picking up serious momentum this winter are finally going head to head in Mount Pleasant. The Chippewas and Cardinals haven’t faced each other since finishing first and second, respectively, at last year’s conference championship, and will both look to their upperclassmen for big scoring. We’ll be treated to a hefty all-around competition, too, with the likes of Ball State’s Zoe Middleton, Megan Teter, Hannah Ruthberg, and Victoria Henry solidified as four-event gymnasts—they’ll be up alongside Luciana Alvarado-Reid, who put up a 9.925 last week en route to remaining undefeated in the all-around during 2024. As a bonus, this meet starts an hour earlier than Friday Night Heights if you’re not patient to wait for gymnastics until 7 p.m. ET.

Additional notes about the predictions: Ball State continues to benefit from the strong scores at the Tennessee Collegiate Classic in our models. Removing these scores lowers its win chances to 78%. Central Michigan will want to post higher scores on both bars and beam at this meet, which flips it around to give the Chippewas a 83% chance of winning. The recent season-ending injury to Lia Kmieciak also hurts Central Michigan’s chances here. With her healthy, CMU’s win percentage increases to 20%.

Missouri at Kentucky

Friday, Feb. 9 at 7 p.m. ET | SECN+

Prediction: 82.30% Kentucky, 17.70% Missouri

After a huge win over Alabama by a significant margin, the Wildcats have solidified their spot as a top team in the SEC, ranked below only LSU. Missouri is another team making its way up the SEC rankings, currently sitting at No. 5 in the conference. The Tigers are out to prove they belong in the night session of SECs. Although the stats heavily favor Kentucky in this match-up, don’t forget that Missouri did beat LSU a week after LSU took down the Wildcats at the PMAC. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Missouri’s best chance of winning this meet comes on beam. Posting the higher score on that event gives it a 57% chance of winning this meet. This is only likely to happen though if Kentucky scores below a 49.250, which hasn’t happened for the Wildcats since week one. Raena Worley continues to be the key contributor for Kentucky, and if she has an off day, Kentucky’s win chances drop to 62%.

UCLA at Oregon State

Friday, Feb. 9 at 11 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Oregon

Prediction: 65.47% UCLA, 34.53% Oregon State

The last time Oregon State hosted UCLA, it came out on top with a sizable seven-tenth margin. Things are going to be trickier this time around with Jade Carey playing conservatively and Ellie Weaver tearing her ACL. In their stead, be on the lookout for Olivia Buckner, who has finally put her vault together after struggling with her Yurchenko one and a half during the first few meets. She stuck it against Utah last week for a 9.950. To get into UCLA’s ballpark, The Beavers are going to need to shuffle their floor lineup around after only going 48.350 against Utah last week.

The Bruins are coming off their first 198 of the season thanks to a 49.750 on floor, tying Michigan for the second-highest floor total in 2024. The Bruins have been on an upward trajectory since the first meet, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep that momentum going. Notably, this will be UCLA’s last meet with Emma Malabuyo before she heads out for the apparatus World Cup series in her attempt to qualify for Paris.

Additional notes about the predictions: UCLA’s 198 last weekend makes it a stronger favorite in this matchup, increasing its win percentage from 58% to the current 65% prediction. Jade Carey’s participation in this meet continues to be a large factor with Oregon State’s win chances going to 41%, 27%, or 15% with her in the all-around, only bars and beam, or no events, respectively. Selena Harris continues to be a huge factor in UCLA’s success, but don’t count out the impact of freshman Katelyn Rosen. Without Rosen at full strength, UCLA’s win percentage drops to 55%.

Arizona at California

Sunday, Feb. 11 at 5 p.m. ET | Free live stream

Prediction: 99.40% California, 0.60% Arizona

While the Golden Bears enter this matchup as massive favorites, both California and Arizona are on a roll this season and have made significant strides from 2023. The Wildcats carried momentum from their near top-20 finish a season ago to rank 17th, and the Golden Bears are up to No. 2 after last year’s national championships appearance.

California has looked like the best bet to stop the Sooners’ three-peat thus far with its remarkable consistency. Over the last four weeks, the Golden Bears have posted pairs of 197.875s and 197.950s and will be on the hunt for their first 198 in their second home meet of the season. Mya Lauzon has emerged as one of the country’s top all-arounders. She and eMjae Frazier have both reset the program’s all-time all-around score already this season.

Arizona’s hot start can be attributed to big turnarounds on bars and floor from last season. Former four-star recruit Abigayle Martin has made a huge impact on bars in her freshman campaign, already hitting a near-perfect 9.975 while Alysen Fears has been the anchor for the team as the Wildcats’ weekly all-arounder.

Additional notes about the predictions: Arizona is looking for California to count some mistakes in this one, with 65% of our simulations showing the Golden Bears winning by over a point. If Arizona can post the higher score on both vault and bars, its win percentage increases to 43%. However, this scenario is extremely unlikely and only occurred in 0.07% of our simulations. For those waiting for California to cross that 198 mark, we see this outcome occurring in 11% of our simulations.

Upset Alert

Arkansas at Florida

Friday, Feb. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 84.92% Florida, 15.08% Arkansas

After a strong start, Arkansas struggled against LSU last week, failing to break 197 for the first time all season. With Florida staying around the mid-197.000 mark, Arkansas has the potential to upset, having scored as high as 197.525 compared to Florida’s season high of 197.475. If the Razorbacks want to stand a chance against the Gators, they’ll need to prove last week was just a fluke and put together another mid-197 performance. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Arkansas’s win percentage increases to 69% if it can post a higher score on both bars and beam. Bars is the more likely of the two events for this to happen, with this outcome occurring in one out of every four simulations. Maddie Jones will be a key contributor for Arkansas. Without her, its win percentage drops to only 9%.

Illinois State at Lindenwood

Sunday, Feb. 11 at 1 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 59.07% Illinois State, 40.93% Lindenwood

These two streaky teams, No. 1 and No. 2 in the MIC, are both in flux in their lineups and week-to-week event strengths, so there’s some randomness in the final meet result. Still, Illinois State has a higher baseline and also room to grow, particularly on vault, where its high start value always provides excitement despite landings not come together quite yet. Don’t miss the Redbird’s all-around star Angelica Labat or the MIC’s top floor gymnast, Lindenwood’s Gayla Griswold.

Additional notes about the predictions: Another sub-195 score for Lindenwood last week dropped its win percentage from 45% to 41%, and removing the Tennessee Collegiate Classic season high score lowers its win percentage even further to only 29%. But don’t count the Lions out just yet. If they can post the higher score on beam, their win chances shoot up to 68%. A full strength Angelica Labat will also be important for Illinois State to keep its advantage in this meet. Without her typical contributions, this becomes a 50/50 matchup.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week six go by without bringing up these additional points.

• LSU at Georgia: The Gymdogs have the opportunity to put together a top-tier homestand against LSU after a strong 197.300 versus Florida last week. The Tigers will be looking for their first 198 as they approach the switch to NQS.
• Alabama at Auburn: The Iron Bowl of gymnastics is here! Auburn gained some confidence—and some new routines from Olivia Greaves and Hannah Hagle—last week. Topping Alabama isn’t out of sight, but it would take the Tigers’ best meet of the year to do it, as the Crimson Tide will be looking for a big away number.
• Michigan at Minnesota: The Wolverines are coming off of a tough home loss to rival Michigan State and have a chance to bounce back in a big way against Minnesota. The Gophers broke 197 for the first time last week, so it won’t be all easy sailing for Michigan.
• Iowa State and SEMO at Denver: The battle between Iowa State and Denver is going to be more competitive than it has been in years as the Cyclones are putting together an extremely strong season. Denver is fresh off of its first 198 of the year in the first meet of this homestand and will be looking to replicate that number, while Iowa State will be aiming at its first 197. For SEMO, the question hanging in the air is Lindsay Ockler’s health after she seemingly injured her lower leg at Illinois State last week. 

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 16-10)

• Ball State at Central Michigan: Ball State
• Missouri at Kentucky: Kentucky
• Arkansas at Florida: Florida
• Illinois State at Lindenwood: Illinois State
• Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan
• EMU, Fisk & WVU at BGSU: West Virginia

Claire (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 16-10)

• Ball State at Central Michigan: Ball State
• Missouri at Kentucky: Kentucky
• Arkansas at Florida: Florida
• Illinois State at Lindenwood: Illinois State
• Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan
• EMU, Fisk & WVU at BGSU: Eastern Michigan 

Elizabeth (Last Week: 3-3; Overall: 18-8)

• Ball State at Central Michigan: Ball State
• Missouri at Kentucky: Kentucky
• Arkansas at Florida: Florida
• Illinois State at Lindenwood: Illinois State
• Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan
• EMU, Fisk & WVU at BGSU: Eastern Michigan

Emily M (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 18-8)

• Ball State at Central Michigan: Ball State
• Missouri at Kentucky: Kentucky
• Arkansas at Florida: Florida
• Illinois State at Lindenwood: Illinois State
• Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan
• EMU, Fisk & WVU at BGSU: Eastern Michigan

Rebecca (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 14-12)

• Ball State at Central Michigan: Ball State
• Missouri at Kentucky: Kentucky
• Arkansas at Florida: Florida
• Illinois State at Lindenwood: Illinois State
• Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan
• EMU, Fisk & WVU at BGSU: Eastern Michigan 

Week 6 Guest: Tara

• Ball State at Central Michigan: Ball State
• Missouri at Kentucky: Kentucky
• Arkansas at Florida: Florida
• Illinois State at Lindenwood: Illinois State
• Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan
• EMU, Fisk & WVU at BGSU: Eastern Michigan

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: Judge’s Inquiry: Breaking Down January’s Perfect 10s

Article by the editors of College Gym News