By week five, the season has started to settle into a rhythm, but the storylines are just heating up. Teams are no longer just testing lineups—they’re staking claims, chasing momentum, and trying to separate themselves from the pack. This week’s Mount highlights must-watch matchups, potential upsets, and key duals that could shift the rankings and signal which teams are peaking at the right time. With our data-driven predictions in hand, here’s everything you need to know to navigate the fifth weekend of competition.
Must-Watch Meets
Arkansas at Florida
Friday, Jan. 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Prediction: 95.3% Florida, 4.7% Arkansas
Both Florida and Arkansas enter this meet with something to prove as they look to cement their status as national contenders. Florida’s early-season arc has been uneven—the Gators have yet to match their opening score and have dropped roughly three-tenths in each successive meet—while Arkansas has trended steadily upward, improving its score every time out under Jordyn Wieber. After counting a fall on vault last week, Florida will be eager to reclaim lost tenths, with senior Selena Harris-Miranda leading the charge. She’s been rock-solid on vault, averaging a 9.925, and Florida’s bars rotation remains a major advantage, too, highlighted by Riley McCusker’s near-perfect 9.975 last week and depth throughout the lineup.
Arkansas, meanwhile, continues to build momentum and has the pieces to keep this meet interesting. Morgan Price is coming off a career-high 39.600 in the all-around, supported by a deep roster that includes Frankie Price, currently eighth in the SEC on floor, along with Joscelyn Roberson and Lauren Williams, both capable of 9.925-plus scores on multiple events. If the Razorbacks maintain their recent consistency, this matchup could be far tighter than expected.
Notes about the predictions: Last weekend, Florida counted a fall on vault and still escaped with the win, but that margin for error likely won’t exist this time. Despite entering as the heavy favorite, the Gators can’t afford a repeat performance—if they count another fall for a second straight week, this meet quickly becomes a true toss-up, with either team capable of taking the victory.
Michigan State at Michigan
Sunday, Feb. 1 at 4 p.m. ET | BTN
Prediction: 63.7% Michigan, 36.2% Michigan State
Michigan hasn’t won this rivalry matchup since 2022, but this season presents a real opportunity to change that narrative. The Wolverines hold the edge in both ranking and scoring ceiling, even if they haven’t yet matched the 197.225 they opened the year with. Beam looms as a potential separator: junior Kayli Boozer has yet to dip below 9.900, and freshman Quincy Walters is already emerging as a key lineup piece. In its first season under head coach Maile’ana Kanewa-Hermelyn, this roster has flashed its upside; now it’s about assembling those pieces at the right moment.
Michigan State, meanwhile, has endured an uncharacteristically bumpy start and has yet to break the 197 barrier, though it came close in last week’s home opener against UCLA. The return of Olivia Zsarmani after missing the season opener with injury provided an immediate boost, and freshman Lilia Cosman continues to trend upward as she adjusts to the NCAA after an international elite career. The trajectory should improve from here, but bars remains the glaring question mark—one the Spartans will want to resolve before it becomes a season-long concern.
Notes about the predictions: It’s been several years since Michigan entered this in-state rivalry as the favorite, but early-season struggles have cast Michigan State in the underdog role. Bars has been the decisive factor so far, with all three Spartan performances falling below last year’s season low on the event. A 49.200 on bars would swing the advantage slightly back to Michigan State—a mark it hasn’t reached yet in 2026, but one it surpassed in 11 of 15 meets last season.
Upset Alert
North Carolina at Clemson
Friday, Jan. 30 at 7 p.m. ET | ACCNx
Prediction: 54.9% Clemson, 45.1% North Carolina
Although Clemson is coming off a loss at Stanford, it’s far from a team to overlook. The Tigers posted a 196.300—good for their fourth-highest score in a true road meet—and showcased strong individual performances along the way. Brie Clark anchored the night with a 9.950 on floor and a 9.925 on beam to claim both event titles, earning ACC Specialist of the Week honors for her efforts. Ella Cesario also provided a key boost, competing in the all-around for the first time this season and becoming Clemson’s first all-arounder since 2024.
North Carolina, meanwhile, picked up its first ACC win of the season at home against Pittsburgh, posting a 196.525. The Tar Heels swept all four event titles behind a wave of 9.800-plus routines, highlighted by freshman Sydney Seabrooks’ all-around victory with a 39.275.
UNC enters Friday’s ACC matchup as the favorite, but Clemson has historically been tough to beat at home. If both teams stay consistent and control their landings across all four events, this one has all the makings of a tightly contested meet.
Notes about the Predictions: In our closest projected matchup of the week, home advantage is the difference-maker, giving Clemson a slight edge. If the meet were held in Chapel Hill, the win probabilities would flip entirely, with North Carolina favored at 54.9%. Regardless of the venue, this one shapes up to be tight, with 30% of our simulations decided by two-tenths or less.
LSU at Missouri
Friday, Jan. 30 at 8 p.m. ET | SECN
Prediction: 83.5% LSU, 16.4% Missouri
It’s a battle of the Tigers in Columbia this weekend as LSU heads to Missouri for a pivotal SEC showdown. The last time these teams met on Missouri’s home floor in 2024, the Tigers in black and gold edged out a one-tenth victory, and the ingredients are there for another tight contest. LSU is coming off a massive performance that pushed past the 198 mark, while Missouri matched its season-high beam score on the road at Alabama. What’s still missing for the Tigers is a fully complete home meet—something that will be essential if they want to knock off LSU. Addison Lawrence has been a beam anchor all season, scoring 9.950 in three of four meets, and freshman Kimarra Echols is beginning to find her rhythm; both will need to be sharp for Missouri to have upset potential.
LSU will once again look to sophomore Kailin Chio to set the tone after she earned the first perfect 10 of her career on beam last week, but depth will matter just as much. Avoiding a repeat of the inconsistencies that plagued the Georgia meet will be key if the Tigers want to leave Columbia with a win. If LSU hits with the same confidence it showed last weekend and Missouri finds its footing at home, expect this one to go down to the final rotation.
Notes about the predictions: LSU’s floor scoring has swung wildly in recent weeks, dropping below 49 in week three before erupting for a 49.600—the second-highest floor score in the nation—last weekend. While LSU enters as the favorite, another sub-49 floor rotation would significantly tighten the race, cutting its win probability to just 36%.
Iowa at Minnesota
Saturday, Jan. 31 at 5 p.m. ET | B1G+
Prediction: 88.6% Minnesota, 11.4% Iowa
Minnesota is coming off a difficult road meet at Nebraska, where it was forced to count multiple low scores on both bars and beam. The Golden Gophers will be looking for a significant rebound at home, particularly on beam, which had been one of their more dependable events early in the season. Minnesota will be hoping last week’s issues were an anomaly rather than a trend.
Iowa will look to capitalize if the door is left open, though that task becomes more challenging on the road. The Hawkeyes have struggled away from home so far this season, and their most recent meet at Michigan exposed similar weaknesses—particularly on bars—to those Minnesota faced last weekend. With both teams showing vulnerability on the same events, this meet could ultimately be decided by who stays on the apparatus on bars and beam.
Notes about the predictions: Both Iowa and Minnesota have pulled off notable home upsets this season. While a Minnesota win here wouldn’t qualify as an upset, competing at home still provides a meaningful edge. If this meet were held in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes’ win probability would rise to 33%.
Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.
There’s Other Stuff Happening Too
We’d be remiss to let a preview for week two go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.
- Oklahoma is coming off a week of scoring controversy, but still generally an impressive performance it will want to repeat. It’ll try to do so in Lexington, where home team Kentucky will want to do the opposite after last week’s debacle at LSU. While it was a season high, the Wildcats still counted a fall on beam and will want to use tonight’s home meet against a perennial title contender to put the rough start to the season behind it once and for all. Creslyn Brose’s first floor routine in Lexington in 2026 should help to do that.
- Utah scored lower than Kentucky last week on the road, which included an uncharacteristic fall on floor by Avery Neff. The Utes come back home to face Arizona State and will hope to put together a consistent night on all four events that they haven’t really seen all season.
- Texas Woman’s is having a huge season thus far and will seek to continue its collection of Division I wins at UC Davis. The Pioneers then compete again two days later at San Jose State with Air Force and Southern Utah, giving them yet another opportunity to show they’re on par with the bracket above.
Fantasy Corner
If you’re diving into fantasy gymnastics this year, you’re aiming to crush it—right? Fantasy Central has you covered with smart tips and strategic insights all season long. Tara Graeve and data editor Dara Tan will keep you up to speed on injuries, scoring trends, under-the-radar waiver wire gems, and everything else you need to stay ahead of the competition.
CGN Pick’em
Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks, then tune into the meets to see how well you do!
How to Watch
Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.
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Article by the editors of College Gym News
