Believe it or not, we are nearing the end of the regular season, and postseason is fast approaching! This means it’s time to start thinking about regionals. As a reminder, qualification is based on NQS, which is calculated by taking a team’s top six scores of the season, at least three of which must be on the road, dropping the highest score overall, and averaging the remaining five.
Each year in this series we take a look at each “bubble” team’s highest possible NQS after this coming weekend’s slate and discuss what they’ll need to do to finish in the top 36 and make regionals. This week we’ll stick only to team discussion, adding in potential individual qualifiers next week.
Let’s start with a postseason bracket projection based on current standings, attempting to take geography into account. With the current rankings, there are two hosting conflicts among the top 16 seeds, so we switched No. 7 Michigan with No. 8 Michigan State and No. 11 Denver with No. 12 Arkansas. Teams in bold are located within 400 miles of a host site, so we have placed them accordingly (geography does not matter for the top 16 seeds). The remaining teams were placed using a mixture of geography and conference alignment (no more than four conference members at each location) while attempting to keep the playing field as level as possible.
Note: While official rankings are released each Monday, we are using unofficial NQS rankings following the March 4 BYU at Southern Utah meet throughout this article.
| Ann Arbor | Berkeley | Fayetteville | Gainesville |
| 1. Oklahoma | 2. California | 3. LSU | 4. Florida |
| 7. Michigan | 8. Michigan State | 6. Kentucky | 5. Utah |
| 9. Alabama | 10. UCLA | 12. Arkansas | 11. Denver |
| 16. Oregon State | 15. Ohio State | 14. Auburn | 13. Missouri |
| 23. Penn State | 18. Arizona State | 19. Arizona | 17. Minnesota |
| 24. Illinois | 22. Stanford | 21. N.C. State | 20. Georgia |
| 28. Ball State | 26. Boise State | 27. Nebraska | 25. Washington |
| 31. Kent State | 30. Southern Utah | 29. BYU | 31. Clemson |
| 35. Iowa State | 33. San Jose State | 36. Iowa | 34. Towson |
In past years, we’ve seen several examples where geographical proximity to a regional host has caused teams ranked higher than No. 29 to have to compete in the play-in round. The regional to watch this year is Ann Arbor, as there are 10 teams within 400 miles of the Crisler Center that could theoretically end up ranked between No. 17 and No. 36. With Ohio State currently ranked No. 15 and five others between No. 38 and No. 45, this week’s projected bracket is safe from the negative ramifications of this rule, and we were able to project the play-in round with only teams ranked No. 29 and lower. The other note about the regionals bracket this year is that BYU can only be assigned to Ann Arbor or Fayetteville since the other two regionals have the potential for Sunday competition.
Bubble Teams
For the purposes of this article, we’re assuming every team currently ranked in the top 20 will make it to the postseason ranked at least No. 28, which is an important cutoff since play-in rounds should theoretically contain teams ranked No. 29 through No. 36. So we’ll be examining teams currently ranked Nos. 21 through 45 today. Bold scores can no longer be replaced in the NQS calculation while scores with a strikethrough indicate it is the team’s season high, meaning it’s currently being dropped. Scores with an asterisk indicate that they can be replaced this coming weekend. For teams that have a double meet weekend, we input their current season high into both meets to calculate their max NQS after this weekend, but it is technically possible for them to exceed this number by this time next week.
No. 21 N.C. State
| Current NQS | 196.620 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.850, 196.300, 196.225* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.060 |
| Highest possible ranking | 15 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 29 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
N.C. State is peaking at the right time, posting its three best scores of the season in the last three weeks. With two meets this weekend and two more road meets after that, the Wolfpack is in excellent position to avoid the play-in round if it can continue the trend. Score to watch: A 197.475 in either of its two meets this weekend would guarantee a higher ranking than current No. 19 Arizona next week.
No. 22 Stanford
| Current NQS | 196.585 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.625, 196.600, 196.100 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.615 |
| Highest possible ranking | 22 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 31 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
Stanford is hoping for a semi-tumultuous season to steady out as it paces toward the final Pac-12 championship. Replacing the 196.100 with a much higher score will be necessary if the Cardinal wants to continue to avoid the play-in round, but with a home meet this weekend, the team will have to wait until next week for the opportunity to do that. While it can’t improve upon its ranking this week, a score over 197.000 would create more spread among its scores ahead of its streak of three road meets to end the season. With key contributor Anna Roberts back on two events and star sophomore Taralyn Nguyen hitting her stride, Stanford has a good shot of eclipsing that mark on its senior night.
No. 23 Penn State
| Current NQS | 196.545 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.650, 196.400*, 196.075* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.860 |
| Highest possible ranking | 18 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 33 |
| Meets remaining | 4 road |
Penn State enters a road stretch to finish its season, leaving lots of upside to improve on its already solid ranking. To stay out of play-in territory, the Nittany Lions need to notch a 196.500 in one of their two meets, a mark they’ve eclipsed four times already this season but only once on the road. With a double this week and a low 196 to drop, Penn State can certainly make some moves and shoot up in the rankings. Specifically, the team needs above a 196.525 to guarantee a ranking ahead of No. 24 Illinois or a 196.450 to pass No. 22 Stanford. Penn State is counting on big performances from Bella Salcedo and freshman Kalea McElligot to get it done.
No. 24 Illinois
| Current NQS | 196.525 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.850, 196.550, 196.400 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.630 |
| Highest possible ranking | 21 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 34 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Coming off of a home 196.125 versus Bowling Green last Sunday, Illinois is hoping to finish the season strong and avoid a rankings drop before the postseason. However, nine of the 10 teams ranked immediately after the Illini have at least one 197-plus score, a feat they have yet to accomplish. It is likely going to take multiple 197-plus showings to keep Illinois out of the play-in round, should the other bubble teams continue to soar. The team will be looking for sticky feet on vault and massive floor numbers from Mia Townes and Abby Mueller to make it happen.
No. 25 Washington
| Current NQS | 196.485 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.550, 196.450, 196.425* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.640 |
| Highest possible ranking | 21 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 35 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Coming off a double meet weekend that produced its two highest scores of the season so far, Washington should be optimistic about its hopes of rising in the rankings and avoiding the play-in round. The Huskies can’t take their foot off the gas, however, as the rankings between No. 25 and No. 34 are extremely tight. Score to watch: A 197.150 would guarantee at least a No. 28 ranking next week, which would keep them out of the first round projection for another week.
No. 26 Boise State
| Current NQS | 196.480 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.825, 196.650, 196.525 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.655 |
| Highest possible ranking | 21 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 35 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Like Washington, Boise State has posted its two highest scores of the season in the last two meets. However, its season high of 197.025 is still fairly low compared to most of its rankings neighbors. Increasing that season high would be helpful, but continuing to score in the high-196 to low-197 range is an absolute must. A 196.900 this weekend would guarantee at least a No. 28 ranking next week, but ideally the Broncos should aim several tenths higher.
No. 27 Nebraska
| Current NQS | 196.425 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.500, 196.125, 196.125 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.550 |
| Highest possible ranking | 23 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Similar to Boise State, Nebraska’s season high is relatively low, especially considering it’s already locked into counting a 196.500 toward its final NQS. The Cornhuskers should be aiming to eclipse 197.000 in all of its remaining meets to have a shot at staying out of the play-in round. Score to watch: A 197.100 this weekend would guarantee a ranking ahead of current No. 30 Southern Utah.
No. 28 Ball State
| Current NQS | 196.410 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.600, 196.075, 195.950* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.825 |
| Highest possible ranking | 18 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 2 home, 1 road |
Ball State is in great shape to move up the rankings this weekend with a 197.425 and 196.600 already locked into its final NQS and a 195.950 next in line to drop. A 197.200 would guarantee a higher ranking than current No. 24 Illinois and No. 26 Boise State, and a 197.275 would even give the Cardinals a chance at passing No. 20 Georgia. Of note: This weekend’s meet against Northern Illinois is the final road meet for Ball State, so it is the last opportunity to prevent a 196.000 from being counted in its final NQS.
No. 29 BYU
| Current NQS | 196.390 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.500, 196.475, 196.125* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.565 |
| Highest possible ranking | 23 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
BYU reached the 197.000 milestone against Southern Utah on Monday, greatly helping its chances of staying on the right side of the bubble. However, the Cougars will need to repeat that performance multiple times in its remaining meets to stay comfortably in their current position. Score to watch: A 196.950 against Ohio State on Friday would guarantee a higher ranking than current No. 27 Nebraska next week.
No. 30 Southern Utah
| Current NQS | 196.370 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.800, 196.250, 196.025 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.540 |
| Highest possible ranking | 24 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
BYU wasn’t the only team to make the most of its Monday meet; Southern Utah jumped from No. 37 to No. 30 by setting a new season high of 197.125. With three low-196 scores still factoring into the current NQS calculation, the Thunderbirds, like BYU, will want to continue scoring 197-plus to avoid dropping in the rankings. A 197.075 against Penn State on Friday would guarantee a higher ranking than current No. 33 San Jose State while also giving them a chance to pass No. 24 Illinois.
No. T-31 Kent State
| Current NQS | 196.360 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.200, 196.925, 195.525* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.800 |
| Highest possible ranking | 18 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Kent State has more than a two-point gap between its current high score (thanks Tennessee!) and the low score it is hoping to drop, so the sky’s the limit. However, the Golden Flashes will be away this weekend and haven’t managed to top 196.125 at an away meet since the Tennessee Collegiate Classic in January. A repeat of that performance would be enough to prevent Iowa State from overtaking them and would give them at least a chance to move up to No. 27. If they can score just a smidge higher at 196.175, they can possibly snag No. 25, depending on how they–and their rankings neighbors–fare this weekend.
No. T-31 Clemson
| Current NQS | 196.360 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.550, 196.375, 196.350 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.590 |
| Highest possible ranking | 22 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Clemson has been remarkably consistent this season, especially for a brand new team. Luckily, their last home outing resulted in a season high almost a full point higher than their “normal,” so the Tigers have quite a bit of upside. They are home again this weekend, and at least a 196.475 will give them the chance of moving up enough to avoid the play-in round. Clemson can guarantee passing at least BYU, Nebraska, and SUU with a 197.250.
No. 33 San Jose State
| Current NQS | 196.335 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.500, 196.400, 195.725* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.525 |
| Highest possible ranking | 24 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
San Jose State has the chance to pass several teams this week, but no score it earns can guarantee a rankings boost. The Spartans will need the teams ranked above them to underperform if they hope to move up this week. A 196.425 will be enough to stave off Iowa State, but the real goal should be to record a new season high. Once that 195.725 gets dropped, the Spartans’ scores are very tightly clustered and won’t result in very much upside for the coming weeks.
No. 34 Towson
| Current NQS | 196.320 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.775, 196.600, 196.325 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.685 |
| Highest possible ranking | 20 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 3 home, 1 road |
Towson’s last outing at home resulted in a season high of 197.425. It will want to build on that performance to truly capitalize on dropping the 195.600 that’s still hanging around. Towson hasn’t dropped below 196.300 in over a month, and anything over that gives it a chance to overtake BYU, Ball State, Clemson, Kent State, Nebraska, San Jose State, and SUU, with a 196.375 guaranteeing that Iowa State can’t pass it. A 197-plus will guarantee passing all the aforementioned teams, except Ball State and Kent State, with the possibility to climb even higher depending on how other teams perform this weekend.
No. 35 Iowa State
| Current NQS | 196.255 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.700, 196.150, 195.950 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.470 |
| Highest possible ranking | 27 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
The Cyclones haven’t competed at home since January when they recorded two of their three highest scores this season. They can only be passed by Maryland and have the potential to pass quite a few teams with a high 196, though they can’t guarantee passing anyone. Only a 196.175 is needed to have a chance at passing Towson, and a 196.700 will give them the opportunity to unseat Nebraska if the Huskers have a rough outing.
No. 36 Iowa
| Current NQS | 196.155 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.300, 196.225, 196.150 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.230 |
| Highest possible ranking | 36 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 37 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
The Hawkeyes are in a very tough spot. Their scores are so tightly clustered together that regardless of how they perform this weekend, they can’t move up in the rankings. Luckily, only Maryland has the chance to pass them this week, but No. 37 is not a place you want to be. Iowa will want to blow its season high out of the water this week to give itself a better chance at increasing its ranking in the final weeks of the season.
No. 37 Maryland
| Current NQS | 196.125 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.675, 196.450, 196.350 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.815 |
| Highest possible ranking | 18 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 37 |
| Meets remaining | 4 road |
Maryland has a double meet weekend on the horizon featuring two away meets and the opportunity to move up almost 20 spots in the rankings by dropping two mid-195s. Even with two subpar performances, Maryland can’t move any lower than No. 37. Only a 196.075 is needed to guarantee moving ahead of Iowa and into regionals position. Double meet weekends are tough to predict, but the Terrapins are coming off a season high of 197.300, and just one repeat of that performance would guarantee moving ahead of Iowa State. Two performances of that caliber would result in major shifts in the rankings.
No. 38 Western Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.860 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.125, 196.000, 195.800 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.075 |
| Highest possible ranking | 38 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 39 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
There is a large gap between Nos. 37 and 38, leaving the rest of these teams with work to do. Western Michigan cannot move up into qualification position this week, but it can make up some ground by replacing its 195.350 with another mid-196. Unfortunately, three of the Broncos’ four 196-plus meets came in January, and the last two weeks have seen back-to-back sub-195 results. They need to reverse that trend quickly if they want any hope of making regionals.
No. 39 Illinois State
| Current NQS | 195.750 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.750, 195.600*, 195.550* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.910 |
| Highest possible ranking | 38 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 42 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
The Redbirds will have two opportunities to earn road scores this weekend. With a strong performance, they can theoretically move ahead of Western Michigan, especially if the Broncos continue on their current downward trajectory. Illinois State needs to score a 195.925 to guarantee Eastern Michigan can’t pass it in the rankings. Although that is a score Illinois State has managed to eclipse twice this season, it is coming off a season low in the 193s, so it won’t necessarily be an easy feat.
No. 40 Eastern Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.595 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.525, 195.325*, 195.325 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.820 |
| Highest possible ranking | 39 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 46 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
196.125 is the magic number for Eastern Michigan. That will guarantee Central Michigan cannot pass it this weekend and also gives EMU the chance to pass Illinois State depending on how the Redbirds fare. Should it fall short, a 195.975 would fend off Lindenwood, a 195.925 would guarantee that Pittsburgh can’t pass, and a 195.575 will ensure staying ahead of Rutgers. Eastern Michigan is coming off its third best performance in program history led by star all-arounder Raisa Boris. If it can continue that momentum, a 196.125 is certainly a possibility.
No. 41 Utah State
| Current NQS | 195.575 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.375, 195.300, 195.000 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.575 |
| Highest possible ranking | 41 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 48 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Utah State is on a bye this week and runs the risk of being passed by George Washington, Central Michigan, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Lindenwood, and Texas Woman’s. George Washington needs only a 195.225 to pass, which is a number it hasn’t scored below in over a month. It’s safe to say that the Aggies are likely to find themselves lower in the rankings next week and even out of the bubble completely should all the aforementioned teams put up good performances.
No. 42 George Washington
| Current NQS | 195.540 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.675, 195.575, 195.175 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.860 |
| Highest possible ranking | 38 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 49 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
George Washington has a lot of upside and could fend off Central Michigan and have a chance of passing Illinois State with a 196.100. A 196.450 would guarantee passing Eastern Michigan, and a 196.525 would fend off TWU—a team with huge upside and a double meet weekend ahead. However, George Washington has yet to surpass 196.000, or even come particularly close to it, on the road this season. It would take a road high of 195.900 or 195.950 to guarantee staying ahead of Pittsburgh and Lindenwood, respectively. With a very doable road performance of 195.550, it can guarantee staying ahead of at least Rutgers. A lesser performance of 195.225 would fend off conference foe New Hampshire and guarantee passing Utah State, so that should be the bare minimum goal.
No. 43 Central Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.530 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.625, 195.425, 195.325* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.750 |
| Highest possible ranking | 39 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 49 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Central Michigan tallied its highest score of the season over a month ago and has yet to come anywhere near it since, so although the possibility for a ranking jump is present, it may take an uncharacteristically good performance to make headway. With a 195.525 it can guarantee fending off North Carolina, and just half a tenth better staves off New Hampshire and guarantees passing at least Utah State and possibly even George Washington, depending on how it performs. To have a chance of passing in-state conference mate Eastern Michigan, it will need a 195.675. Anything below a 195.900 still leaves the Chippewas vulnerable to being passed by Rutgers, Pittsburgh, or Lindenwood.
No. 44 Rutgers
| Current NQS | 195.455 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.800, 195.325, 195.325 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.640 |
| Highest possible ranking | 40 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 52 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
Rutgers is not totally in control of its destiny this week and will instead be planning to make big moves during next week’s double meet weekend. The Scarlet Knights can guarantee passing Utah State with a 195.900, but they can’t guarantee moving ahead of anyone else. A 195.900 would also prevent New Hampshire, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Penn, and UC Davis from passing them in the rankings, so that would be a very useful score to aim for this weekend. A 195.675 would give them at least a chance to catch Central Michigan, a 195.725 could be enough to pass George Washington, and at least a 196.000 is needed if they want a shot at snatching the No. 40 spot from Eastern Michigan.
No. 45 Pittsburgh
| Current NQS | 195.445 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.125, 195.225, 194.775 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.710 |
| Highest possible ranking | 40 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 52 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Pitt has a lot of upside that it unfortunately won’t be able to fully capitalize on until it is able to drop that 194.775 when it’s away next weekend, but there’s still room to grow. The Panthers can guarantee passing Utah State and Rutgers with a 195.875 and 196.200, respectively. With a solid performance, they have the chance to pass Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and George Washington, but they can’t guarantee it with their score alone; they need their ranking rivals to falter. Along with passing the Aggies, a 195.875 would also block New Hampshire, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Penn, and UC Davis from passing. Anything lower, and they run the risk of possibly being overtaken by teams below them.
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Article by Jenna King, Claire Harmon, Mariah Dawson, and Emma Hammerstrom
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