We’re down to 15 days remaining until the SEC championship, and we have another week of scores to factor into our predictions of who’s locked into qualifying and who’s in danger of missing out on the chance to compete for the title. As a reminder, in this SEC version of Bubble Watch, we’ll be focusing on the scores each team is locked into counting toward its NQS on Monday, March 17, which is presumably when the decision will be made about which team will be staying home. We’ll also look at how many meets each team has remaining until then.
In the tables below, bold scores are locked into being counted in the March 17 NQS, strikethrough is used to indicate the season high currently being dropped from the NQS calculation, and an asterisk indicates the score that can be replaced this coming weekend. Rankings indicated are only among SEC teams, not the national rankings. The highest and lowest possible rankings are only relevant for this Monday’s (March 10) rankings.
No. 1 Oklahoma
| Current NQS | 197.915 |
| Highest three road scores | 198.050, 197.950, 197.925 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 198.000 (1st) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.965 |
| Highest possible ranking | 1 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 1 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Oklahoma cannot be caught this week—not even if Alabama were to score two theoretical 200s in its double meet weekend—and is mathematically locked into competing in the evening session in Birmingham.
No. 2 LSU
| Current NQS | 197.710 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 198.050, 198.000, 197.550* |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.956 (2nd) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.825 |
| Highest possible ranking | 2 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 3 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
LSU is mathematically locked into qualifying for the SEC championship and realistically locked into the evening session. It’s possible for Florida to pass LSU this weekend, but a score of 197.925 or higher against Georgia would keep that from happening.
No. 3 Florida
| Current NQS | 197.480 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.575, 197.450, 196.625* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.819 (3rd) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.780 |
| Highest possible ranking | 2 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 3 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Coming off its second 198.125 of the season, Florida is realistically locked into qualifying to SECs, and the evening session is very likely barring a sudden streak of 198-plus scores for Missouri and Alabama in all their remaining meets. The Gators need to score at least 197.800 at Alabama to have any chance at passing LSU this weekend.
No. 4 Missouri
| Current NQS | 197.230 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.425, 197.200, 197.150* |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.388 (4th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.345 |
| Highest possible ranking | 4 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 5 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Missouri is realistically locked into competing in Birmingham, as even if Arkansas scores five-tenths higher than its season high in its final two meets, it’ll still have a lower NQS than where Missouri is at currently.
No. 5 Kentucky
| Current NQS | 197.085 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.225, 197.150, 196.800 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.213 (8th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.130 |
| Highest possible ranking | 5 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 8 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
This is where things start to get interesting. While Kentucky is currently ranked fifth among SEC teams, it’s noteworthy that the 197.300 season high is the lowest among them all. In addition, the average of Kentucky’s locked-in scores and its highest possible NQS after this weekend are both ranked eighth in the conference right now. If the Wildcats fail to set a new season high tonight, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they’ll find themselves ranked eighth in the SEC next week and fighting to stay in the field, especially if Arkansas puts up a big score.
No. 6 Georgia
| Current NQS | 197.065 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.200, 197.125, 196.975 |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.219 (7th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.170 |
| Highest possible ranking | 5 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 8 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Georgia’s situation is similar to Kentucky’s, though with a slightly higher season high of 197.350 (eighth in the SEC). Of the two teams, Georgia has the advantage of being able to secure a higher ranking than Kentucky by scoring a 197.175 at LSU tonight. It is also possible to prevent Auburn from passing by scoring a 197.325.
No. 7 Auburn
| Current NQS | 196.965 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.300, 197.025, 196.900 |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.225 (6th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.160 |
| Highest possible ranking | 5 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 9 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Auburn controls its own destiny more than Kentucky and Georgia do, largely thanks to that huge 197.750 road score against Alabama earlier in the season. If the Tigers can get anywhere near that score at Missouri on Sunday, they will have much more breathing room for SEC championship qualification. However, it is notable that star freshman Katelyn Jong has been sidelined with a torn Achilles, and a low score this weekend would likely keep them in the mix for last place. A 197.625 would guarantee a higher ranking than Kentucky on Monday, and a 197.025 would keep them ahead of Arkansas.
No. 8 Alabama
| Current NQS | 196.940 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.350, 197.075, 197.025* |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.358 (5th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.280 |
| Highest possible ranking | 4 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 9 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Last week we wrote that Alabama needed to start scoring significantly higher on the road to move up the rankings, and that’s exactly what happened, with the Crimson Tide increasing its highest away score by almost a full point on its way to a new season high. With two meets this weekend (home and away), Alabama needs to carry that momentum forward to avoid being in a vulnerable position next week. A 197.550 in either meet would guarantee passing Kentucky while a 196.950 would assure a higher ranking than Arkansas on Monday.
Note: The highest possible ranking and NQS in the table above were calculated using Alabama’s season high in both meets this weekend. It is possible for these numbers to be exceeded.
No. 9 Arkansas
| Current NQS | 196.775 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.050, 196.400, 196.250* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.013 (9th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.010 |
| Highest possible ranking | 7 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 9 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Arkansas is definitely the team that appears most likely to miss out on SEC championship qualification at this point, but not all hope is lost. The Razorbacks do not control their own destiny; even if they score significantly higher in their next two meets, they will still need higher-ranked teams to falter in order to move up the rankings. We’ll have a better idea after this weekend of where the teams stand, but for now, a 197.225 tonight would give them a chance to pass Auburn, and a 197.100 would give them a chance to pass Alabama. However, if the Razorbacks fail to score at least 196.650 tonight, their fate would be sealed; it would not be possible to qualify to the SEC championship.
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Article by Jenna King
