Data Deep Dive: Simulating 2022 Nationals

With the 2022 national championships only a week away, we’ve run another 10,000 simulations of our postseason model featuring only the eight remaining teams in order to get updated probabilities of each to bring home the title. For background on the model methodology and to view the pre-regionals results, see our article on the 2022 postseason simulator. For today’s model runs we lowered the impact of injured athletes and counted March and regionals scores more than scores from earlier in the season.


Semifinal Team Finalist 3rd Place 2nd Place Champion

With LSU out, the second semifinal gets less competitive, with Florida as the extreme favorite to advance. In our regionals predictions, LSU made it to the championship in 23% of the model runs. The Tigers’ absence at nationals gives both Florida and Auburn higher chances to make it to the team final. Before regionals, Auburn made the final in only 23% of simulations while it advanced in nearly a third of this run’s simulations. Missouri can’t be counted out either after upsetting LSU twice this season and taking out UCLA to qualify to nationals.

The first semifinal has a similar breakdown as the second, with first-seed Oklahoma most likely to advance and second-seed Utah advancing in two thirds of the simulations. Oklahoma, however, doesn’t have quite as much of a buffer as Florida does. The lowest seeded team in this semifinal, Minnesota, has put up some big scores this year and made the finals in 15% of simulations.

Once we get to the championship predictions, Florida is a heavy favorite, winning in almost half of the simulations. Though Florida’s recent postseason history is rocky, the Gators dominated both the SEC championship and regionals, indicating that the title is theirs to lose. The reigning national champions Michigan only won in 8% of the simulations. The Wolverines can certainly not be counted out, but they have not been as dominant in the second half of the season, leaving room for other teams to sneak in.

Want to try this simulation yourself?

You're in luck! Adjust the settings and click the simulate button below, and tables will appear showing the results of both semifinals and Four on the Floor! We've also added in individual event winners this year. Click the button again to run a new simulation. Counts of wins will show up under the "Win Count" header. Be sure to share your results on social media!



Win Counts

Semifinal 1

Semifinal 2

Four on the Floor

Individual Winners

Simulation script and data by Jenna King; article and on-page simulation by Izzi Baskin

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