Data Deep Dive: SEC Scoring

As far as NCAA gymnastics fans are concerned, there are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and SEC overscoring. Year after year, discourse swirls around the SEC’s generous scores compared to the notoriously stingy [insert any other conference here]. Judge Carol herself, the Patron Saint of Overscoring whose name has become synonymous with mathematically impossible scores, first sprang to gymternet prominence after presiding over a Florida home meet. Anyone who’s watched the sport in depth can almost certainly provide ample anecdotal proof of the so-called SEC bump (CGN staff included), but what do the data say? Do SEC teams actually get scored higher than their non-SEC counterparts? If so, how large of a role does home/conference scoring play in each teams’ national success? Which team(s) benefit the most?

Using every home, away and postseason score from the last decade as listed on Road to Nationals, we computed the differences between each SEC team’s median regular season home and away scores, average regular season conference and non-conference scores, average conference championship and postseason scores and median regular season and final rankings compared to those from the top-performing school in each of the Power Five conferences (using the EAGL as an analog for the ACC) to see what, if any, trends emerged.

A few notes:

• This analysis is only assessing whether or not there is a measurable SEC scoring boost, not other potential scoring biases (e.g., leo bonuses, prevalence of missed neutral deductions).
• Missouri was previously a member of the Big 12. Only its scores since joining the SEC in 2013 were considered.
• The SEC did not compete against non-conference teams during the 2021 regular season.
• Georgia did not compete in the 2021 SEC championship and Auburn was excluded from 2021 postseason competition due to COVID-19 protocols.

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at the data.

Median Regular Season Home and Away Scores

SCHOOL	MEDIAN HOME SCORE	MEDIAN AWAY SCORE	DIFFERENCE
Auburn	196.7125	196.1364	0.5761
Florida	197.8216	197.2875	0.5341
N.C. State (EAGL)	195.6511	195.1295	0.5216
Georgia	196.8648	196.4636	0.4012
Alabama	197.2125	196.8648	0.3477
Arkansas	196.4261	196.0822	0.3439
Kentucky	196.2023	195.9557	0.2466
Utah (Pac-12)	197.3318	197.0926	0.2392
LSU	197.4205	197.1909	0.2296
Missouri	195.8238	195.6575	0.1663
Michigan (Big Ten)	196.9200	196.7939	0.1261
Oklahoma (Big 12)	197.7023	197.6443	0.0580

CONCLUSION: Unsurprisingly, all 12 schools perform better at home than away, but the margins vary widely with Auburn, Florida and N.C. State enjoying more than a half point advantage compared to less than a tenth each for Michigan and Oklahoma. The remaining SEC schools and Utah score anywhere between two and four tenths higher at home meets.

Regular Season Conference and Non-Conference Scores

SCHOOL	CONFERENCE AVERAGE	NON-CONFERENCE AVERAGE	DIFFERENCE
Auburn	196.3732	195.4888	0.8844
N.C. State (EAGL)	195.4163	194.8614	0.5549
Kentucky	196.0735	195.6023	0.4712
Georgia	196.6258	196.2913	0.3345
Alabama	197.0359	196.8032	0.2327
Florida	197.5503	197.3575	0.1928
Oklahoma (Big 12)	197.6623	197.5383	0.1240
Utah (Pac 12)	197.2093	197.0988	0.1105
LSU	197.2244	197.1946	0.0298
Michigan (Big 10)	196.8334	196.8071	0.0263
Arkansas	196.0822	196.0696	0.0126
Missouri	195.6519	195.7697	-0.1178

Note: Average, not median, scores were compared due to the comparatively few number of non-conference meets. One score—Arkansas’ 185.275 against Michigan State in 2017—was excluded since it was the result of Arkansas only competing four routines on floor.

Average Conference Championship and Postseason ScoresCONCLUSION: Again, Auburn leads the class, averaging nearly nine tenths better within the SEC while LSU, Arkansas and Missouri score more or less the same wherever they’re competing. The four remaining SEC teams split the difference, scoring between two and five tenths better in conference play; of the Power Five schools included, only N.C. State averaged higher. 

SCHOOL	CONF CHAMP AVERAGE	POSTSEASON AVERAGE	DIFFERENCE
Utah (Pac 12)	197.6175	197.1499	0.4676
Michigan (Big 10)	197.0516	197.3150	0.2634
Alabama	197.5025	197.2525	0.2500
Georgia	196.5091	196.3909	0.1182
Auburn	196.2175	196.1056	0.1119
N.C. State (EAGL)	195.4625	195.4138	0.0487
Florida	197.5600	197.5421	0.0179
Oklahoma (Big 12)	197.6675	197.7208	-0.0533
LSU	197.4275	197.5056	-0.0781
Missouri	195.6969	195.9135	-0.2166
Kentucky	195.7477	196.0764	-0.3287
Arkansas	195.7775	196.1880	-0.4105

Note: For this data set, “postseason” denotes regional and national championship scores.

CONCLUSION: The majority of teams score higher at their respective conference championships than during the postseason with a panel of non-conference judges, with Utah standing out at nearly a half point scoring advantage during Pac-12 championship. The bulk of SEC teams’ postseason averages were within a tenth of what they average at SEC championship; notable exceptions include Kentucky and Arkansas—which perform three and four tenths better, respectively, during the postseason—and Alabama, which performs two and a half tenths better during the conference championship. It’s also worth noting that Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky and Auburn have most frequently participated in the early session of the SEC championship (whose scoring is a topic for a different analysis).

Median Regular Season Rankings Versus Final Rankings

SCHOOL	REGULAR SEASON	FINAL	DIFFERENCE
LSU	3	4.5	1.5
Michigan	7	8.5	1.5
Auburn	14	15	1
Kentucky	16.5	17.5	1
Florida	2	2.5	0.5
Oklahoma	1	1.5	0.5
Utah	5	5	0
Alabama	5.5	4.5	-1
Georgia	9.5	8.5	-1
Arkansas	16.5	14.5	-2
Missouri	22	19	-3
N.C. State	29.5	25.5	-4

Note: 2022 regular season rankings are not included in this data set. Auburn’s 2021 final ranking of 35 was excluded due to its inability to participate in postseason competition. 

CONCLUSION: Despite its regular season conference and home scoring advantage, N.C. State typically climbs four spots higher at the conclusion of the postseason compared to its regular season rankings. Missouri similarly sees a three spot jump in the rankings during postseason. The remaining teams do not see a significant change in their regular season and postseason rankings.

What Does All of This Mean?

Attempting to mine objective data from a subjectively judged sport is never straightforward, and this analysis is no exception. Further in-depth analysis is needed to paint a more definitive picture. However, the initial high-level data indicates there is an SEC bump whose effects vary from team to team, with Auburn having a significant home team and in-conference advantage compared to other SEC teams and Missouri having little to no advantage. It’s unclear to what degree—if any—this bump affects postseason competition or final standings. Bearing in mind that college gymnastics is a sport of infinite variables and constant surprises, if the trends implied by this data hold up, the final postseason results will look something like this:

SCHOOL	POSTSEASON AVG	FINAL RANKING
Alabama	197.5750	6
Arkansas	196.8605	16
Auburn	197.6892	8
Florida	198.1821	2 or 3
Georgia	195.6818	22
Kentucky	196.6787	11
LSU	196.8031	7 or 8
Michigan	197.9366	4 or 5
Missouri	197.0916	8
NC State	196.0979	26
Oklahoma	198.3113	1 or 2
Utah	197.5324	4

Whatever scoring inconsistencies and inaccuracies exist, the teams comprising the SEC are unquestionably among the best in the country and show no signs of relenting as we enter the postseason.

READ THIS NEXT: Data Deep Dive: Simulating the 2022 Postseason

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Article by Claire Billman 

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