Bubble Watch: Mar. 17

Conference championships are here! For NQS, this means that every DI/DII team (except one; sorry, William & Mary!) has one more opportunity to improve their ranking going into regionals. Most will have a road meet this weekend while hosts will typically count this score as a home meet. Let’s get right into it with a regionals projection!

Regionals Projection: Teams

Tuscaloosa Athens Salt Lake City Morgantown
1. Florida 1. Oklahoma 3. Michigan 4. LSU
8. Alabama 7. Minnesota 6. Utah 5. California
9. Arkansas 9. Denver 11. Arizona State 12. BYU
16. Illinois 15. Auburn 14. Kentucky 13. UCLA

Florida and Arkansas win tiebreakers over Oklahoma and Denver, respectively, but this week also had a tie for the No. 16 seed between Illinois and Georgia. Illinois beat out Georgia, which is significant since Georgia is a host and this left two regionals with a host outside of the seeded teams. In this case, Oklahoma, as the top-seeded team remaining, would likely be sent to the regional closest to it geographically, which is Athens. Georgia is an especially dangerous team, especially if it winds up unseeded, so whoever ends up in Athens, especially the second seed, should be weary of facing it at home.

Locked In: The Seeds

Even though this is the Bubble Watch, we’ll break down some scenarios for teams who are locked into regionals as well. As always, scores in bold indicate performances that can no longer be dropped from the NQS calculation, and we’ll calculate the team’s projected ranking (against the current standings) if it matches its season high this weekend. We’ll start with the current top 20, who have either locked in a seed or will be fighting for a seed this weekend.

No. 1(T) Florida

Current NQS 197.944
Highest two road scores 198.15; 197.5
Other counting scores 198.275; 197.85
NQS with season high this weekend 198.138 (1st)

No. 1(T) Oklahoma

Current NQS 197.944
Highest two road scores 198.225; 197.95
Other counting scores 197.8; 197.8
NQS with season high this weekend 198.05 (1st)

Florida and Oklahoma are still tied after OU recorded a 197.475 last week, which was too low to break into NQS-counting territory. Since Florida is looking to drop a 197.5 and Oklahoma a 197.8, the Gators can be outscored by the Sooners by up to three tenths without dropping down to No. 2, assuming both teams score high enough to improve their NQS. Advantage: Florida.

No. 3 Michigan

Current NQS 197.788
Highest two road scores 198.1; 198.025
Other counting scores 197.65; 197.375
NQS with season high this weekend 197.969 (1st)

Yes, you read that correctly: Michigan could jump up to No. 1 this weekend if all things fall into place. It’s a bit of a stretch but not impossible: Michigan must score at least 198.0 while also outscoring Florida by 0.5 and Oklahoma by 0.2.

No. 4 LSU

Current NQS 197.7
Highest two road scores 197.55; 197.325
Other counting scores 198.05; 197.875
NQS with season high this weekend 197.881 (3rd)

LSU will be looking to drop its 197.325 to solidify its status as a top seed at its regional and hold off a surging California team.

No. 5 California

Current NQS 197.575
Highest two road scores 197.425; 197.225
Other counting scores 198.05; 197.6
NQS with season high this weekend 197.781 (4th)

No. 6 Utah

Current NQS 197.469
Highest two road scores 197.575; 197.45
Other counting scores 197.475; 197.375
NQS with season high this weekend 197.519 (6th)

Utah is in the unfortunate position of having a very narrow spread of scores counting toward its NQS, so there’s not much room to move up unless the Utes break into the 198 territory that the higher-ranked teams have reached this season. Luckily, they are virtually assured of being the No. 2 team at whatever regional they end up at; there is very low risk of dropping below No. 8.

No. 7 Minnesota

Current NQS 197.344
Highest two road scores 197.375; 196.975
Other counting scores 197.625; 197.4
NQS with season high this weekend 197.4 (7th)

While Minnesota is probably happy to be hosting the Big 10 championship, it’s unfortunate for its NQS because it can no longer drop that 196.975 road score. Because of this and a relatively large jump up to Utah’s NQS, it’s unlikely we’ll see any upward movement in the Gophers’ ranking. Alabama, Arkansas and Denver could all jump ahead of Minnesota after this weekend.

No. 8 Alabama

Current NQS 197.319
Highest two road scores 197.325; 197.0
Other counting scores 197.725; 197.225
NQS with season high this weekend 197.5 (6th)

No. 9(T) Arkansas

Current NQS 197.225
Highest two road scores 197.425; 196.875
Other counting scores 197.35; 197.25
NQS with season high this weekend 197.363 (7th)

No. 9(T) Denver

Current NQS 197.225
Highest two road scores 197.375; 196.875
Other counting scores 197.65; 197.0
NQS with season high this weekend 197.419 (7th)

It’ll be interesting to watch Arkansas and Denver on Saturday: With a tied NQS and the exact same low score to drop, whoever scores higher (assuming it’s greater than 196.875) will be ranked higher, no math needed. However, each team will care more about breaking into the top 8 to be a top two team at its regional rather than the No. 3 seed. However, it’ll be a tall order to pass an Alabama team competing in its home state.

No. 11 Arizona State

Current NQS 197.088
Highest two road scores 197.05; 196.7
Other counting scores 197.45; 197.15
NQS with season high this weekend 197.275 (9th)

No. 12 BYU

Current NQS 197.063
Highest two road scores 196.975; 196.9
Other counting scores 197.3; 197.075
NQS with season high this weekend 197.163 (11th)

No. 13 UCLA

Current NQS 197.038
Highest two road scores 197.1; 196.925
Other counting scores 197.1; 197.025
NQS with season high this weekend 197.081 (12th)

No. 14 Kentucky

Current NQS 196.969
Highest two road scores 196.9; 196.875
Other counting scores 197.1; 197.0
NQS with season high this weekend 197.025 (14th)

ASU, BYU, UCLA and Kentucky are bunched closely together by NQS, so it’ll be interesting to see who out of this group ends up as a No. 3 seed vs. a No. 4 seed at their respective regionals. UCLA and Kentucky have very small spreads in their NQS-counting scores, however, so they’ll need some new season highs to move up.

No. 15 Auburn

Current NQS 196.831
Highest two road scores 197.025; 196.1
Other counting scores 197.125; 197.075
NQS with season high this weekend 197.088 (12th)

Among the currently projected seeded teams, Auburn is the most likely to see a significant jump in the rankings due to still counting a low score of 196.1. With the SEC championship in nearby Huntsville, Auburn has a good chance of winning the afternoon session and jumping Kentucky in the rankings.

No. 16(T) Illinois

Current NQS 196.781
Highest two road scores 196.6; 196.3
Other counting scores 197.575; 196.65
NQS with season high this weekend 197.1 (11th)

Illinois is coming off a program record performance at home last week, surging from a tie for 21st to a tie for 16th. Another rankings jump will be possible with a similar performance on Saturday, but with the highest road score being 196.6 it feels unlikely we’ll see such a high score from the Illini again at Big 10s.

No. 16(T) Georgia

Current NQS 196.781
Highest two road scores 196.375; 196.15
Other counting scores 197.325; 197.275
NQS with season high this weekend 197.075 (12th)

Similar to its rankings twin Illinois, Georgia has scored much higher at home than on the road this season, so it’ll be a tall order to match its season high at SECs. However, UGA has a lower score to drop and scores at the conference meet are likely to be generous, so the advantage goes to the Gymdogs to at least break the tie for a place among the seeded squads. UPDATE Mar. 18: Georgia will not compete at the SEC championships after positive COVID tests within the program. This means the Gymdogs will not be a top-4 team at their home regional.

No. 18 Iowa

Current NQS 196.713
Highest two road scores 196.825; 196.45
Other counting scores 196.8; 196.775
NQS with season high this weekend 196.806 (16th)

No. 19 Boise State

Current NQS 196.706
Highest two road scores 196.9; 196.4
Other counting scores 196.775; 196.75
NQS with season high this weekend 196.831 (15th)

Iowa and Boise State both have the capability to move into the top 16 this weekend, but they would need to set new season highs and hope that Auburn, Illinois and Georgia all fail to improve their NQS. A new season high could certainly happen for Iowa, who set its current season high last week despite counting a fall.

No. 20 Southern Utah

Current NQS 196.663
Highest two road scores 196.65; 196.175
Other counting scores 197.275; 196.55
NQS with season high this weekend 196.938 (15th)

Southern Utah is an interesting case because three of its best gymnasts have been limited in recent weeks causing scores to be stagnated. Based on the first half of the season, it’s surprising that the Thunderbirds are still counting a 196.175. If SUU is at full strength this weekend, it will have a real shot at earning a surprise seed at regionals, but of course it’ll also depend on how the teams ranked ahead of it perform.

Locked In: Avoiding the Play-in Round

This middle group of teams are locked into a regionals position but unlikely to break into the top 16. The main goal should be to earn a top 28 ranking to avoid a play-in dual on day one of regionals. Teams ranked No. 17 to No. 28 are sorted into regionals based on non-gymnastics criteria, so the exact ranking within this range doesn’t really matter.

No. 21 Utah State

Current NQS 196.531
Highest two road scores 196.775; 196.6
Other counting scores 196.5; 196.25
NQS with season high this weekend 196.663 (20th)

No. 22 Iowa State

Current NQS 196.475
Highest two road scores 196.575; 196.125
Other counting scores 196.825; 196.375
NQS with season high this weekend 196.65 (21st)

No. 23 Missouri

Current NQS 196.444
Highest two road scores 196.85; 196.175
Other counting scores 196.575; 196.175
NQS with season high this weekend 196.613 (21st)

No. 24 Oregon State

Current NQS 196.419
Highest two road scores 196.55; 196.5
Other counting scores 196.425; 196.2
NQS with season high this weekend 196.506 (22nd)

We can’t make any promises, but at this point it feels likely that Utah State, Iowa State, Missouri and Oregon State are safe from the play-in round, as there are only a few teams ranked lower that can possibly rise to a 196.3-plus NQS after this weekend.

No. 25 Central Michigan

Current NQS 196.275
Highest two road scores 196.425; 195.95
Other counting scores 196.425; 196.3
NQS with season high this weekend 196.394 (25th)

No. 26 Ohio State

Current NQS 196.275
Highest two road scores 196.425; 195.95
Other counting scores 196.425; 196.3
NQS with season high this weekend 196.294 (25th)

No. 27 N.C. State

Current NQS 196.094
Highest two road scores 195.85; 195.425
Other counting scores 196.9; 196.2
NQS with season high this weekend 196.463 (23rd)

No. 28 Kent State

Current NQS 195.981
Highest two road scores 196.05; 195.65
Other counting scores 196.375; 195.85
NQS with season high this weekend 196.163 (27th)

No. 29(T) Eastern Michigan

Current NQS 195.925
Highest two road scores 196.1; 195.975
Other counting scores 195.825; 195.8
NQS with season high this weekend 196.0 (28th)

No. 29(T) Towson

Current NQS 195.925
Highest two road scores 196.15; 195.55
Other counting scores 196.15; 195.85
NQS with season high this weekend 196.075 (28th)

No. 31 Maryland

Current NQS 195.844
Highest two road scores 196.275; 195.35
Other counting scores 196.025; 195.725
NQS with season high this weekend 196.075 (28th)

Seven teams (Central Michigan, Ohio State, N.C. State, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Towson and Maryland) will likely be fighting for the last four spots that avoid the play-in round.

Bubble Watch

Now we get to the fun part! We estimate that these 10 teams will be fighting for the final five regionals berths. Since it’s very possible we’ll see lots of new season highs this weekend, we’re adding in another stat called the theoretical max, which is calculated by adding up all the individual high scores on each event from the entire season. This allows us to calculate a maximum NQS the team can achieve this weekend if competing at its absolute top level without simply plugging a 200 into the formula. While it’s unlikely any team will actually reach that score, it gives us an idea of which teams are likely to set a new season high if they can put together a complete meet.

No. 32 Penn State

Current NQS 195.775
Highest two road scores 196.0; 195.775
Other counting scores 195.925; 195.325
NQS with season high this weekend 195.944 (29th)
Theoretical max 197.425
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.3 (25th)

Penn State still has a 195.325 to drop, which should be easily doable if the team is performing at its best. Even though the Nittany Lions are No. 32, there are several teams ranked lower that have the potential to pass them, so they can’t get complacent about their regionals spot.

No. 33 Western Michigan

Current NQS 195.769
Highest two road scores 196.05; 195.575
Other counting scores 196.025; 195.425
NQS with season high this weekend 195.925 (31st)
Theoretical max 197.075
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.181 (27th)

Western Michigan is at home this weekend but can luckily still replace its lowest counting score, a 195.425. However, a season high-matching performance might not cut it for the Broncos with many teams on their tail.

No. 34 Ball State

Current NQS 195.725
Highest two road scores 195.975; 195.725
Other counting scores 195.65; 195.55
NQS with season high this weekend 195.831 (32nd)
Theoretical max 197.325
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.169 (27th)

Ball State doesn’t have as much of a spread in its NQS-counting scores as the other teams on the bubble, so the Cardinals are in a precarious position: new season high or bust. The theoretical max is higher than several other bubble teams, indicating that if they put together a complete meet they can definitely exceed their previous best.

No. 35 New Hampshire

Current NQS 195.719
Highest two road scores 196.1; 195.3
Other counting scores 196.125; 195.35
NQS with season high this weekend 195.925 (29th)
Theoretical max 196.975
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.138 (27th)

New Hampshire is locked into counting a 195.35 but can still replace a 195.3. The Wildcats’ theoretical max is on the lower end, but they have already proven they can hit 196 on two occasions this season. It’s going to be needed once again to stay in regionals qualifying position.

No. 36 Nebraska

Current NQS 195.713
Highest two road scores 196.15; 195.35
Other counting scores 196.1; 195.25
NQS with season high this weekend 195.938 (29th)
Theoretical max 197.675
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.319 (25th)

Nebraska has finally hit its stride, scoring 196-plus two weeks in a row. The stats between UNH and Nebraska are strikingly similar—a low 196 season high, a low 195 to drop, a 195.35 already locked in—but the difference here is the theoretical max. If Nebraska can put together a complete meet, it can likely improve on its season high and jump in the rankings.

No. 37 Arizona

Current NQS 195.7
Highest two road scores 196.075; 195.65
Other counting scores 196.0; 195.075
NQS with season high this weekend 195.95 (29th)
Theoretical max 196.95
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.169 (27th)

Arizona has a full point between its season high and the score it needs to replace, so a hit meet would put the Wildcats in good position. However, they need help from the teams ranked ahead of them—if everyone hits, they’ll still be on the outside looking in.

No. 38 West Virginia

Current NQS 195.689
Highest two road scores 195.9; 195.35
Other counting scores 196.1; 195.4
NQS with season high this weekend 195.863 (31st)
Theoretical max 196.975
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.081 (28th)

West Virginia is at home this weekend, which means it can’t drop its lowest counting road score, but it can still drop a 195.4. However, like Arizona, the Mountaineers need not only to improve on that score but also to hope that the teams ranked ahead them falter.

No. 39 Temple

Current NQS 195.613
Highest two road scores 196.025; 195.925
Other counting scores 195.4; 195.1
NQS with season high this weekend 195.844 (31st)
Theoretical max 197.325
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.169 (27th)

Temple has a lower score to replace than West Virginia, and that theoretical max indicates that the Owls have the talent to move up the rankings if they put together a complete meet. However, moving up three rankings positions is going to be difficult if all the teams ahead of them also hit.

No. 40 North Carolina

Current NQS 195.575
Highest two road scores 195.6; 195.25
Other counting scores 196.15; 195.3
NQS with season high this weekend 195.8 (32nd)
Theoretical max 197.025
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.019 (28th)

North Carolina finally broke the 196 barrier last week! However, it’s still going to be difficult for the Tar Heels to qualify to regionals unless they can improve their season high once again.

No. 41 Washington

Current NQS 195.419
Highest two road scores 196.025; 194.125
Other counting scores 196.525; 195.0
NQS with season high this weekend 196.019 (28th)
Theoretical max 197.375
NQS with theoretical max this weekend 196.231 (26th)

It’s difficult to believe Washington is in contention to qualify to regionals considering they only broke 195 for the first time in early March, but here we are. Replacing that 194.125 with a 196+ score would put the Huskies into a very good position to qualify, although it still won’t be a lock and will depend on the other teams’ performances.

Regionals Projection: Individuals

If regionals were to start tomorrow, the following individuals would qualify as all arounders:

Gymnast School Current NQS
Audrey Barber Maryland 39.431
Hannah Joyner Rutgers 39.356
Cassidy Rushlow Penn State 39.338
Payton Murphy Western Michigan 39.306
Elizabeth Culton North Carolina 39.300
Ariana Castrence Temple 39.256
Skylar Killough-Wilhelm Washington 39.244
Angelica Labat Illinois State 39.225
Tara Kofmehl Northern Illinois 39.206
Belle Huang Rutgers 39.113
Lauren Bolen Towson 39.113
Sarah Moravansky Western Michigan 39.075

On the outside looking in: Marissa Nychyk (Ball State; 39.063), Dahlia Solorzano-Caruso (SEMO; 39.038), Olivia Miller (Pittsburgh; 39.038), Brianna Greenlow (North Carolina; 38.994). Also keep an eye on New Hampshire’s Kylie Gorgenyi, who will probably qualify if she can replace her 38.525 with a solid score.

Projected Vault Qualifiers

Gymnast School Current NQS
Anika Dujakovich Nebraska 9.894
Camille Vitoff Towson 9.881
Geneva Thompson Washington 9.875
Alexsis Rubio Maryland 9.863
Courtney Mitchell Lindenwood 9.856
Reese Mcclure Maryland 9.856
Aleah Leman Lindenwood 9.850
Malia Hargrove Arizona 9.850
Kylie Gorgenyi New Hampshire 9.850
Amara Cunningham Washington 9.850
Kyndall Baze Lindenwood 9.850
Victoria Henry Ball State 9.844
Julianna Roland Temple 9.844
Robyn Kelley New Hampshire 9.844
Jessica Castles Arizona 9.844
Collea Burgess Maryland 9.844

On the outside looking in: Drew Aldridge (North Carolina; 9.838), Hallie Thompson (North Carolina; 9.838), Kiana Lewis (West Virginia; 9.838), Alissa Bonsall (Penn State; 9.838), Hadyn Crossen (Eastern Michigan; 9.831), Allie Smith (Washington; 9.831). Kendall Whitman has a good chance at qualifying if she can drop her 9.75, but George Washington did not compete last weekend due to COVID protocols so we’re unsure of the team’s status this week. Her teammate, Deja Chambliss, does not yet have an NQS but could if GW competes this weekend; her current low score is a 9.875, so she would certainly qualify if she can match that again.

Projected Bars Qualifiers

Gymnast School Current NQS
Ava Verdeflor Penn State 9.900
Alissa Bonsall Penn State 9.894
Natalie Hamp Northern Illinois 9.888
Kynsee Roby Nebraska 9.881
Kinsey Davis Nebraska 9.881
Katrina Coca Pittsburgh 9.881
Allison Zuhlke Towson 9.881
Geneva Thompson Washington 9.875
Cortney Bezold Eastern Michigan 9.869
Jada Rondeau Eastern Michigan 9.869
Grace Evans Ball State 9.863
Alexandra Fochler Bowling Green 9.863
Katie Chamberlain Pittsburgh 9.863
Kylie Gorgenyi New Hampshire 9.863
Megan Teter Ball State 9.856
Aleka Tsiknias (inj.) Maryland 9.850

Aleka Tsiknias is injured; if the NCAA were to replace her it would come down to a tiebreaker between Amy Stewart, Tess Zientek, Camille Vitoff (all of Towson), Kyla Bryant (Stanford) and Brookelyn Sears (Northern Illinois) who are all tied at 9.844. However, with one meet remaining, it is likely that one or more gymnasts will move ahead of Tsiknias; Bryant is the most likely with a 9.775 to drop.

Projected Beam Qualifiers

Gymnast School Current NQS
Kynsee Roby Nebraska 9.919
Emerson Hurst Towson 9.913
Caitlin Satler Eastern Michigan 9.894
Robyn Kelley New Hampshire 9.894
Hailey Lui New Hampshire 9.894
Jada Rondeau Eastern Michigan 9.888
Reese Mcclure Maryland 9.881
Jessica Castles Arizona 9.881
Kaitlyn Higgins Nebraska 9.869
Kathryn Thaler Nebraska 9.869
Alyssa Worthington New Hampshire 9.869
Hadyn Crossen Eastern Michigan 9.863
Shannon Gregory Eastern Michigan 9.863
Anna Kaziska SEMO 9.863
Briona Carswell Air Force 9.856
Jenna Weitz Towson 9.856

On the outside looking in: Natalie Cross (Penn State; 9.856) and Charlotte Tishkoff (Western Michigan; 9.856) both lost out on a tiebreaker with Carswell and Weitz in this projection, but Cross can easily improve her NQS by dropping a 9.8 this weekend. Zoie Schroeder (Northern Illinois; 9.844) and Julianna Roland (Temple; 9.844) also have 9.8s to drop. Farther down the rankings, Makayla Curtis (Nebraska; 9.756) is still counting a 9.375 and would almost certainly qualify if she scores a 9.825 or higher.

Projected Floor Qualifiers

Gymnast School Current NQS
Amara Cunningham Washington 9.925
Robyn Kelley New Hampshire 9.900
Cameron Topp Illinois State 9.894
Melissa Astarita Penn State 9.894
Kendra Combs West Virginia 9.888
Kylie Piringer Nebraska 9.881
Faith Leary Temple 9.881
Anna Kaziska SEMO 9.875
Malia Hargrove Arizona 9.875
Claudia Goyco Ball State 9.875
Jada Rondeau Eastern Michigan 9.875
Collea Burgess Maryland 9.875
Hailey Lui New Hampshire 9.875
Julianna Roland Temple 9.875
Isabel Goyco Texas Woman’s 9.875
Amy Stewart Towson 9.875

On the outside looking in: Sabriyya Rouse (Maryland; 9.869), Kaitlyn Higgins (Nebraska; 9.869), Makayla Curtis (Nebraska; 9.863), Jenna Weitz (Towson; 9.863), Abbie Pierson (West Virginia; 9.863), Alissa Bonsall (Penn State; 9.863), Kiana Lewis (West Virginia; 9.863), Nikki Borkowski (Towson; 9.863). Of these, Higgins, Weitz, Lewis and Borkowski are in the best position to move up, with all currently counting a 9.825. Kyndall Baze (Lindenwood; 9.856) and Geneva Thompson (Washington; 9.850) are also in a good position.

Teams on the Cusp

While Ohio State, N.C. State and Kent State are currently ranked in the top 28, all are in danger of slipping below that threshold this weekend if teams ranked below them excel. Let’s take a look at the individuals from those teams who could qualify if that happens.

Gymnast School Event Current NQS
Elexis Edwards Ohio State Vault 9.844
Jenna Swartzentruber Ohio State Bars 9.906
Colby Miller Ohio State Bars 9.863
Ella Hodges Ohio State Beam 9.888
Alexis Hankins Ohio State Beam 9.856
Claire Gagliardi Ohio State Floor 9.881
Emily Shepard N.C. State All Around 39.375
Emily Shepard N.C. State Vault 9.888
Emily Shepard N.C. State Bars 9.900
Emily Shepard N.C. State Floor 9.875
Chloe Negrete N.C. State Vault 9.863
Chloe Negrete N.C. State Beam 9.869
Chloe Negrete N.C. State Floor 9.913
Katelyn Cox N.C. State Bars 9.869
Meredith Robinson N.C. State Bars 9.863
Rachel Decavitch Kent State All Around 39.081
Rachel Decavitch Kent State Bars 9.875
Jade Brown Kent State Bars 9.863
Abby Fletcher Kent State Beam 9.856
Abby Fletcher Kent State Floor 9.900
Toshi Richard Kent State Floor 9.894
Rachel Decavitch Kent State Floor 9.888

Article by Jenna King

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