The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 12

Conference championships weekend is finally here! After hard-fought battles all season long, which teams will walk away with titles, and which teams will be the final into regionals? It all comes down to this!

ACC

Saturday, March 23 at 7 p.m. ET | ACCN

Prediction: 52.92% Clemson, 44.28% N.C. State, 2.14% North Carolina, 0.66% Pittsburgh

The Contenders

No. 19 N.C. State

Why it’ll win: While it did not start out that way, N.C. State has solidified itself as the favorite for the ACC title with multiple 197 performances and top 20 ranking. 

Why it won’t win: This is a familiar position for N.C. State, as the Wolfpack was the favorite for the last few EAGL titles yet was not able to win it. N.C. State needs to find those landings and hit on the day to avoid not winning a conference title as the favorite for the fourth consecutive year.

Why it would be cool if it won: N.C. State won the first and only ACC title in 1984, and a win in Greensboro will give it back-to-back wins 40 years apart.

No. 29 Clemson

Why it’ll win: While N.C. State has the higher NQS, Clemson has the higher maximum score this season. The biggest issue for the Tigers has been consistency, but the advantage in vault start values could be the difference.

Why it won’t win: There is a large discrepancy in road and home scores for Clemson. The Tigers may need their highest road score of the season to keep up with N.C. State.

Why it would be cool if it won: Clemson winning a conference title in its inaugural season would be a historic feat.

Dark Horse

No. 46 North Carolina

Why it’ll upset: The EAGL championship was regularly a competition where the top team had an off day and the undergods capitalized. While it is inconsistent, North Carolina just passed the 196 barrier on the road with a fall against LSU, and that level of performance without the fall could land the Tar Heels on top.

What’s holding it back: That 196 away score last week was only the first of the season since injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Tar Heels. The scoring potential is there if North Carolina is able to put it all together.

Why it would be cool if it won: If North Carolina were to pull off a miracle, it would be the first conference title for it since 2011.

Underdog

No. 43 Pittsburgh

Why it’s an underdog: Pittsburgh has scored over 196 in 2024 but does not have the scoring ceiling as its competitors. 

What’s the brightside: The EAGL championship was historically a competition where the top team had an off day and the undergods capitalized. We don’t know if that will transfer to the ACC, but it could. The Panthers are in the unfortunate position of needing to rely on others’ mistakes to come out on top, so they will be hoping for that EAGL level of chaos to follow these teams to the ACC.

Why it would be cool if it won: Pittsburgh fired its previous head coach after last season in an effort to be more competitive in its new conference. After last place finishes at the last two conference championships, a win here would solidify that it was the right choice for the program. 

Additional notes about the predictions: For the third time this year, the data says Clemson has the scores to beat N.C. State, but we’ll see if it can pull it off this time to win the ACC championship. Beam will once again be a key event, with the winner there winning the whole meet 63% of the time. Clemson will also be looking to move up at least one ranking spot this week to avoid the play-in round at regionals. We see a 44% chance of it scoring at least a 196.550 to make that a possibility. For the individuals, we see Emily Shepard having a 44% chance of taking home the ACC all-around title. Other contenders include Rebecca Wells and Julia Knower, who won in 24% and 15% of our simulations, respectively.

Big 12

Saturday, March 23 at 7 p.m. ET | ESPNU

Prediction: 98.01% Oklahoma, 1.96% Denver, 0.01% BYU, 0.01% Iowa State, 0.01% West Virginia

The Contenders

No. 1 Oklahoma

Why it’ll win: The Sooners came out swinging in week one and haven’t let up. Oklahoma has broken its program record, the NCAA NQS record, and scored 198-plus in all but three meets during the regular season.

Why it won’t win: It would be a shock if any team other than Oklahoma wins this meet, but if there are tenths to be won, it would be on vault. The Sooners’ season high there is only a 49.600, but that was back in January and landings haven’t been as clean as we’ve seen in the past. 

Why it would be cool if it won: Oklahoma would win its third Big 12 championship in a row and leave for the SEC in 2025 on a high.

No. 8 Denver

Why it’ll win: Denver is the only conference opponent that came close to challenging Oklahoma this season, trailing by less than a tenth after two rotations. The Pioneers are also coming off of an upset at Michigan, meaning momentum could be in their favor if the sticks are there.

Why it won’t win: Beam has not been kind to Denver this season. The Pioneers have two rotation scores below 49 and only one in the 49.500 range. Hitting beam will be critical to their chances of upsetting.

Why it would be cool if it won: Winning their second Big 12 championship would be a fitting end for the Pioneers’ seniors, as they were freshmen in 2021 when they won their first.

Dark Horses

No. 36 Iowa State

Why it’ll upset: The Cyclones started the season strong, then dipped a little in terms of consistency. They seem to be finding their groove again, so if the stars align, it could be a magical day for this young team.

What’s holding it back: Unlike other teams in the Big 12, Iowa State only has one 10.0 start value vault. While the Yurchenko fulls in the lineup are very clean and consistent, the lack of difficulty will be what hurts Ashley Miles Greig’s team. 

Why it would be cool if it won: If Greig were to lead this team to victory in her first season, it would be the first conference championship for the Cyclones since 2006. You know who the head coach was then. 

No. 33 BYU

Why it’ll upset: The Cougars are one of only a few teams that haven’t counted a miss all season, so if that trend continues, they could capitalize on any wobble from the top teams.

What’s holding it back: BYU lacks the difficulty and scoring ceiling of Oklahoma and Denver, and while vault is one of its highest ranked events, there are some slight form issues that lead it to score lower than desired.

Why it would be cool if it won: Winning the title in the first season in the conference would be quite an entrance.

Underdogs

No. 51 West Virginia

Why it’s an underdog: West Virginia has not had the season it wanted. Despite being eliminated from regionals contention, the Mountaineers have started to finally find some consistency, even with the injuries throughout the year.

What’s the brightside: The Mountaineers can go out and compete to have fun. It will be the final meet for Abbie Pierson, Kiana Lewis, and Ellen Collins, and they surely will want to make the most of this last competition.

Why it would be cool if it won: If West Virginia could pull off the win against all odds, it would be its first conference championship in the Big 12.

Additional notes about the predictions: No one will be surprised if Oklahoma walks away with its final Big 12 title, but the question is whether the Sooners will sweep all the individual titles as well. Jordan Bowers (AA, VT, FX), Audrey Davis (UB), and Ragan Smith (BB) are the top contenders for standing atop the podium, but Jessica Hutchinson has a strong chance of grabbing at least one of the individual accolades, with floor being the most likely at a 29% chance. Iowa State is also one of three teams fighting for the last regionals spot and has a 2% chance of clinching it with a 196.700 at this meet.

Big Ten

Saturday, March 23 at 12 & 5:30 p.m. ET | BTN

Prediction: 53.44% Michigan State, 30.73% Michigan, 10.23% Minnesota, 4.64% Ohio State, 0.46% Nebraska, 0.22% Illinois, 0.18% Penn State, 0.08% Maryland, 0.01% Iowa, 0.01% Rutgers

The Contenders

No. 9 Michigan State

Why it’ll win: The Spartans, fresh off of the Big Ten regular season title, are the favorites to take the championship at home this year. They’re the only team in the conference with a 198 this season (one home and one away), and with nationals ambitions, Michigan State will be hard to beat.

Why it won’t win: Michigan owns this meet, historically, and comes in as the back-to-back champion.

Why it would be cool if it won: Michigan State has never won the NCAA-sanctioned Big Ten title. The Spartans last finished first in 1981, when gymnastics was an AIAW sport.

No. 10 Michigan

Why it’ll win: Michigan dominates this meet. Bev Plocki is the winningest coach in the conference across any sport, men’s or women’s. If the Wolverines are amazing at one thing, it’s winning the conference championship. They simply cannot be counted out.

Why it won’t win: This is undeniably a building year. While Michigan still sits at a comfortable No. 10, it’s a step behind where it has been the past few years, especially with the midseason injury to Naomi Morrison. If she is back in time for this meet, the Wolverines will be in a better position.

Why it would be cool if it won: Michigan stands alone; a three-peat this year would mark the team’s 28th conference title.

Dark Horses

No. 15 Minnesota

Why it’ll upset: The Gophers closed the regular season with a huge 197.725 on senior night, a competitive number with the leading Michigan squads. With a couple mid-197 road scores in February and March, Minnesota is in a great position to put pressure on the rest of the night session teams.

What’s holding it back: Minnesota’s floor rotation is a stunner, but the other three pieces have lower ceilings. It’ll need to have a big hit on another event—likely beam—to upset.

Why it would be cool if it won: This looked like it might be a rebuilding year for Minnesota, but this squad refuses to lose its competitive edge.

No. 16 Ohio State

Why it’ll upset: The Buckeyes have huge potential this year and have not yet peaked. If everyone fires on all cylinders, Ohio State could easily capitalize on mistakes from the Michigan teams to pull out the win. The Buckeyes were less than three tenths behind Michigan State in their session at Big Fives.

What’s holding it back: Injuries to Jojo Warga and Kaylyn Mintz at Big Fives forced some lineup shuffling, and the scoring potential seems just slightly lower without them. 

Why it would be cool if it won: Ohio State hasn’t won the Big Ten title since 1987.

Underdog

No. 24 Penn State

Why it’s an underdog: The Nittany Lions’ scoring potential is slightly below the four night session teams. They have scored two 197s but seems close to maxing out their top number.

What’s the brightside: Penn State is peaking at the right time. With a slew of high road scores to end the regular season, it’s fully settled into its groove. If the Nittany Lions hit bars and beam comfortably, they’re a dangerous threat.

Why it would be cool if it won: Penn State is one of the oldest teams in the nation, celebrating its 60th season this year while many others are at 50. Still, it has never won the Big Ten title.

Additional notes about the predictions: Michigan State is the favorite to win its first Big Ten championship this year, but keep an eye on Michigan’s vault rotation. If it can score higher on that event, it has a 57% chance of winning the title. Even without the team title, Michigan’s Sierra Brooks is currently the top contender for four out of the five individual titles, with floor being slightly more likely to go to Mya Hooten or Gabby Wilson. Ohio State and Minnesota will also be fighting for seeded placement at regionals. Ohio State is at the mercy of other teams, but Minnesota has a 25% chance of securing a seeded spot.

Pac-12

Saturday, March 23 at 3 & 8 p.m. ET | P12N

Prediction: 70.39% California, 20.60% Utah, 8.13% UCLA, 0.51% Oregon State, 0.30% Stanford, 0.05% Arizona State, 0.01% Arizona, 0.01% Washington

The Contenders

No. 2 California

Why it’ll win: The Golden Bears have been consistently excellent this season, ranking in the top three since week two and looking like not only conference contenders but also NCAA title threats. Behind the strength of eMjae Frazier and Mya Lauzon ranking second and fifth nationally in the all-around, respectively, California went undefeated throughout its Pac-12 slate, with its only losses in 2024 caming against Alabama back in week one and twice in quad meets to Oklahoma.

Why it won’t win: With how consistent California has been, it’s hard to imagine it counting a mistake, so contenders will need to grab tenths wherever they can. Vault is the Golden Bears’ weak event, relying on good landings to offset some built-in deductions on a few of their 10.0 start values. If California gets hoppy, it could be an area where teams may be able to make up some ground.

Why it would be cool if it won: Despite winning at least a share of the last three Pac-12 regular season titles, California has never won the conference meet. In its final chance before its move to the ACC, it will be the favorite to win.

No. 5 Utah

Why it’ll win: As winners of six of the last nine Pac-12 championship meets—including the last three—the Utes have a winning pedigree. Reigning NCAA all-around champion Maile O’Keefe has led the way with the help of Grace McCallum now peaking at the right time and Amelie Morgan back from her international competition circuit.

Why it won’t win: While the vault lineup is on an upswing, having competed six 10.0 start values last weekend, it has been the Red Rocks’ weakest event all season. But, bars is where the real gap between Utah and California exists, as the Utes’ have been more inconsistent and with fewer 9.9-potential routines throughout the lineup.

Why it would be cool if it won: Entering with a three-year winning streak (and the championship meet being canceled in 2020), the entire roster would have never lost a Pac-12 championship meet.

No. 11 UCLA

Why it’ll win: The Bruins are coming off a 198.550 against Clemson, their third-highest score in program history. While UCLA’s team scores have been pretty volatile this season,it has shown the ability to put up a 198-level performance at the right time. With Emma Malabuyo back from international competition, Chae Campbell and Margzetta Frazier back on floor, and Selena Harris in the all-around, the title could be within UCLA’s grasp. 

Why it won’t win: The Bruins have struggled with consistency this season. UCLA’s turnaround from a 196.325 to a 198.550 in just one week shows how the team’s performance can depend on the day. If it’s not a good day for the Bruins, the Pac-12 dark horses could sneak ahead of them.

Why it would be cool if it won: The last time UCLA came away with the Pac-12 title was back in 2019 under head coach Valorie Kondos-Field. If UCLA were to win the title, it would be a first under head coach Janelle McDonald.  

Dark Horses

No. 17 Oregon State

Why it’ll upset: Jade Carey has been playing conservatively on leg events this season due to her Olympic aspirations. If she were to bring back her Yurchenko double full and compete in the all-around again, the Beavers could build upon a 197.575 from earlier this season and upset the favorites if the top teams are having a bad day.  

What’s holding it back: Sydney Gonzales and Ellie Weaver are out for the rest of the season due to injuries. Additionally, Carey isn’t a guarantee in the all-around, putting pressure on the remaining healthy gymnasts to step up in their absences.

Why it would be cool if it won: This would be the first Pac-12 title for Oregon State since 2013.

Underdogs

No. 20 Stanford

Why it’s an underdog: Stanford started the year slow, with most of its scores in the low-196s, struggling with depth, and getting few routines from its top-rated rookie class. Entering the season with high expectations, things went awry quickly, with a season-opener in the 193s and maxing-out at 196.100 in January.

What’s the brightside: Scores have built for Stanford throughout the last two months, with veteran star Chloe Widner back in the groove and propelling the Cardinal to a pair of scores above 197.500 in March. Anna Roberts has also returned from injury, giving Stanford the 9.9 depth it needs to make a run at an upset.

Why it would be cool if it won: Another title would give the Cardinal six Pac-12 championships in the program’s history and its first since 2008.

No. 21 Arizona State

Why it’s an underdog: While the Sun Devils were able to break into the 197s twice this season, most of their scores are concentrated in the mid-196s, which will make it difficult to be competitive with the top teams.

What’s the brightside: Arizona State is coming off a 197.400, its 11th-highest score in program history. Additionally the Sun Devils were able to upset UCLA at home a few weeks ago, showing they have what it takes when other teams have an off day.

Why it would be cool if it won: Arizona State has never won a Pac-12 title. The Sun Devils’ highest placement is second, which hasn’t been achieved since 1996.

Additional notes about the predictions: California is the favorite to win the Pac-12 title this year, but 22% of our simulations result in less than a tenth separation between the top two teams; expect this one to be exciting. The individual all-around battle will also be a close one, with Jade Carey, Mya Lauzon, eMjae Frazer, and Selena Harris all winning the title in around 20% of our simulations. Oregon State is less likely to walk away with the title, but it will be trying to get a seeded regionals position going into the postseason. There is a 59% chance of it scoring at least a 196.875 to make that a possibility.

SEC

Saturday, March 23 at 3:30 & 8 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 54.69% LSU, 26.58% Florida, 8.67% Alabama, 8.50% Kentucky, 0.91% Arkansas, 0.47% Missouri, 0.15% Auburn, 0.03% Georgia

The Contenders

No. 3 LSU

Why it’ll win: LSU has several things working in its favor, most notably the hometown advantage. On average, the Tigers have scored more than six tenths higher this season when competing in Baton Rouge compared to meets outside the state. That’s a sizable cushion under any circumstance but particularly when the competition is as tightly ranked as they are here.

Why it won’t win: More often than not, LSU has struggled (relatively speaking) on at least one event each meet. Even with the aforementioned “Baton Rouge buffer,” it’s going to be difficult to fend off all seven teams with a below average score on any event.  

Why it would be cool if it won: It’s hard not to root for the team that scrapped its way to last year’s team final despite every conceivable setback, especially with fan favorites like Konnor McClain and Savannah Schoenherr now on the roster. 

No. 4 Florida

Why it’ll win: The Gators have won the last two SEC championships and have the best conference record of the bunch. Unlike recent seasons, they’ve been gradually ramping up all season while also testing depth.  

Why it won’t win: While the team’s final scores have hovered around 198 since mid-February, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing. Falls and sub-9.800 scores are a regular occurrence from newcomers and veterans alike and could be harder for the lineups to shake off when the stakes are higher. 

Why it would be cool if it won: The Gators seemed destined for a rebuilding year without Trinity Thomas or Kayla DiCello, and their performance in January did little to dispel that perception. Flash forward to the present: The star-studded freshman class has hit its stride, and the team looks more than capable of a postseason run. 

Dark Horses

No. 6 Kentucky

Why it’ll win: Suffice it to say, the Wildcats have never looked better, and their scoring ceiling has never been higher. Star fifth-year Raena Worley is having the best season of her career, due in no small part to the increased depth and consistency of this roster.

What’s holding it back: Kentucky fell to both LSU and Florida during the regular season but also unexpectedly dropped a meet to Arkansas. Furthermore, it’s lost momentum on vault in recent weeks and will need to fire on all cylinders if it hopes to pull off the upset.

Why it would be cool if it won: Only four teams—LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama—have ever won the SEC championship, so it’d be cool to add another name to that list. After so many years on the wrong side of the postseason bubble, Kentucky has firmly established itself as one of the best teams in the country; an SEC title would be incontrovertible proof that the Wildcats have arrived. 

No. 12 Arkansas

Why it’ll upset: This very young Arkansas team has already exceeded expectations and broken more program records than times you can yell, “Woo Pig Sooie!’ Granted, no team has ever won the SEC title from the afternoon session, but a lot of improbable things have happened this season; what’s one more? 

What’s holding it back: First and foremost, the afternoon session. It’d be a tall order to take down any or all of the higher-seeded teams head on, but doing it from a different meet entirely—and a historically lower-scoring one—is farfetched to say the least. 

Why it would be cool if it won: It’d be cool for a new team to hoist the trophy, and it’d be even cooler if that team pulled off the upset from the afternoon session.

Additional notes about the predictions: LSU’s big scores this year make it the strong favorite to win the SEC title, but the meet will likely be closer than these numbers suggest. Thirty-one percent of our simulations show the top two teams being separated by less than a tenth and 6% of our simulations also show the third-ranked team coming within a tenth of the title. The SEC all-around title will also be a close battle with Haleigh Bryant being the most likely to win with a 31% chance, but Leanne Wong, Raena Worley, and Luisa Blanco are also strong contenders, each winning the title in 15-20% of our simulations.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week 12 go by without bringing up these conferences

• EAGL (3/23 at 4 p.m. ET): Towson’s road to defending its EAGL title will be much easier than in years past with N.C. State now in the ACC, but this meet could truly be any team’s to win. With George Washington on the edge of the regionals bubble and coming off a program high 197.200, Towson may be on upset watch.
• GEC (3/23 at 12 & 6 p.m. ET): With nearly a point better NQS over the field, Penn is a heavy favorite in the GEC. If the Quakers stumble, there’s not a lot to pick between the others’ best days. Yale is the most consistent among the rest of the field.
• MAC (3/23 at 2 p.m. ET): The perennial “anyone’s game” championship has regionals-locked teams from Kent State and Ball State entering as heavy favorites, established as the 197 caliber teams out of the field of seven. Keep an eye for the 2023 champion Central Michigan, known for peaking at the right time.
• MIC (3/23 at 6 p.m. ET): This will be a sentimental one, as Lindenwood competes in Hyland for the final time in program history. The Lions are a slight underdog versus Illinois State, but the home crowd could lift them to victory. Watch out for Illinois State’s monster vault lineup, and don’t look away from Texas Woman’s on floor.
• Mountain West (3/23 at 9 p.m. ET): The first Mountain West gymnastics championship will be a toss up between Boise State and San Jose State. The Spartans have a slight edge with five straight scores of 196.400-plus and Bronco Courtney Blackson being out with an injury. Expect these two teams to go back and forth all night.
• MPSF (3/23 at 6 p.m. ET): As the only regionals bound team, Southern Utah should easily take the MPSF crown. That said, reigning champs UC Davis could challenge to repeat as champion if it mirrors its 197.025 performance from early March.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 39-28)

• ACC: Clemson
• Big 12: Oklahoma
• Big Ten: Michigan State
• Pac-12: California
• SEC: LSU
• GEC: Penn
• EAGL: Towson
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Illinois State
• MWC: San Jose State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• NCGA: Brockport

Claire (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 37-26)

• ACC: Clemson
• Big 12: Oklahoma
• Big Ten: Michigan State
• Pac-12: California
• SEC: LSU
• GEC: Penn
• EAGL: Towson
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Lindenwood
• MWC: San Jose State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• NCGA: Brockport

Elizabeth (Last Week: 6-0; Overall: 42-21)

• ACC: N.C. State
• Big 12: Oklahoma
• Big Ten: Michigan State
• Pac-12: California
• SEC: LSU
• GEC: Penn
• EAGL: Towson
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Lindenwood
• MWC: Boise State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• NCGA: Brockport

Emily M (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 45-18)

• ACC: N.C. State
• Big 12: Oklahoma
• Big Ten: Michigan State
• Pac-12: California
• SEC: LSU
• GEC: Penn
• EAGL: Towson
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Illinois State
• MWC: Boise State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• NCGA: UW-Oshkosh

Rebecca (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 41-22)

• ACC: N.C. State
• Big 12: Oklahoma
• Big Ten: Michigan State
• Pac-12: California
• SEC: Florida
• GEC: Penn
• EAGL: Towson
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Lindenwood
• MWC: San Jose State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• NCGA: Brockport

Week 12 Guest: Claire H

• ACC: N.C. State
• Big 12: Oklahoma
• Big Ten: Michigan State
• Pac-12: California
• SEC: LSU
• GEC: Penn
• EAGL: Towson
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Lindenwood
• MWC: Boise State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• NCGA: UW-Oshkosh

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News