Welcome to conference championship week! It is the final week for teams to improve their NQS going into the postseason, so there are many storylines to follow. Let’s get right into it with a bracket projection!
Regionals Projection: Teams
Below are the projected regionals placements if the current standings were to hold, attempting to take geography into account. Teams in bold are located within 400 miles of a host site, so we have placed them accordingly (geography does not matter for the top 16 seeds). The remaining teams were placed using a mixture of geography and conference alignment while attempting to keep the playing field as level as possible. Note that since there is only one regional host in the current top 16 and there’s a relatively small number of teams geographically aligned with host locations, there is more uncertainty in the host assignments than usual this year. The final bracket will likely vary significantly from these projections.
| Lexington | Baton Rouge | Tempe | Corvallis |
| 1. Oklahoma | 2. LSU | 3. Florida | 4. Alabama |
| 8. Arkansas | 7. Stanford | 6. Georgia | 5. UCLA |
| 9. Missouri | 10. Michigan | 11. Michigan State | 12. Utah |
| 16. Auburn | 15. Clemson | 14. California | 13. Minnesota |
| 18. Ohio State | 17. Penn State | 21. Iowa | 20. N.C. State |
| 19. Kentucky | 22. North Carolina | 24. BYU | 23. Denver |
| 27. Maryland | 28. Utah State | 26. Southern Utah | 25. Oregon State |
| 33. Air Force | 32. Nebraska | 30. Arizona | 29. San Jose State |
| 36. Pittsburgh | 34. Central Michigan | 31. Arizona State | 35. Washington |
The Seeds
We typically only cover teams on the bubble for regionals qualification in this article, but since it’s the last week before the bracket is finalized, we’ll break down some scenarios for teams that are locked into regionals as well. Scores with a strikethrough indicate they are currently being dropped from the NQS calculation as either an excess home score, season high, or season low. If a team has two asterisks (**) next to its home scores, that means the team has six home scores or will by the end of the weekend, so the highest home score will be dropped. In some cases, we’ll also provide the score a team needs to reach a certain goal, which can be anything from locking in the No. 1 overall seed to securing a place in the regionals field. We’ll also include insights from our predictive model, which has generated the likelihood of each team’s final position in the rankings.
We’ll start with the top 13 teams, who have all locked in a seeded position in the bracket.
No. 1 Oklahoma
| Current NQS | 197.9625 |
| Road Scores | 198.175, 198.075, 197.925, 197.925, 197.55, 197.5, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 198.0045 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.9136 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 1 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 2 |
| Model Predictions | No. 1: 94.23% No. 2: 5.77% |
Score to watch: 197.925 will guarantee the top overall seed.
No. 2 LSU
| Current NQS | 197.9167 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 198.325, 198.075, 198.05, 197.975, 197.525 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.9575 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.81 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 1 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 2 |
| Model Predictions | No. 1: 5.80% No. 2: 94.20% |
Score to watch: 197.900 will make it possible for LSU to finish No. 1, but it will still depend on Oklahoma’s score.
Oklahoma and LSU are locked into being the top two seeds in the bracket, but Oklahoma is the one who controls its own destiny, as a 197.925 will guarantee the top overall seed for the Sooners. If they don’t hit that mark, LSU will need to score at least 197.900 while also outscoring Oklahoma by at least 0.425, though that number could be as high as 0.475 depending on OU’s score.
No. 3 Florida
| Current NQS | 197.7 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 198.45, 198.05, 197.725, 197.575, 197.425 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.7972 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.5667 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 3 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 3 |
| Model Predictions | No. 3: 100.00% |
Florida is the only top-16 team with a guaranteed seed come Monday. No matter what happens this weekend, the Gators will be the No. 3 overall seed in the bracket.
No. 4 Alabama
| Current NQS | 197.5 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.95, 197.5, 197.45, 197.425, 197.2 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.5409 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.4659 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 4 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 5 |
| Model Predictions | No. 4: 74.02% No. 5: 25.98% |
Alabama started the season strong but has not had a good March, with three of its four lowest scores of the season coming in the last two weeks. A No. 4 seed is still possible, but there is no score that will guarantee that ranking for the Crimson Tide.
No. 5 UCLA
| Current NQS | 197.4778 |
| Road Scores | 197.775, 197.675, 197.55, 197.425, 197.0, 196.975 |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.545 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.425 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 4 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 6 |
| Model Predictions | No. 4: 26.15% No. 5: 73.72% No. 6: 0.13% |
Scores to watch: 198.125 would guarantee a No. 4 ranking, while 197.375 is the minimum required to make it possible. A 197.200 would guarantee the No. 5 seed.
No. 6 Georgia
| Current NQS | 197.385 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.675, 197.6, 197.55, 197.325, 197.2 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.4477 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.3386 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 5 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 7 |
| Model Predictions | No. 5: 0.16% No. 6: 99.79% No. 7: 0.05% |
Score to watch: 197.075 would guarantee a higher ranking than Stanford.
No. 7 Stanford
| Current NQS | 197.2667 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.775, 197.425, 197.1, 197.075, 196.975 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.355 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.18 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 6 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 10 |
| Model Predictions | No. 6: 0.05% No. 7: 88.64% No. 8: 8.37% No. 9: 2.88% No. 10: 0.06% |
Score to watch: 197.025 would guarantee at least a No. 7 seed.
No. 8 Arkansas
| Current NQS | 197.1917 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.5, 197.475, 197.45, 197.25, 197.125 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.2425 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.07 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 7 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 12 |
| Model Predictions | No. 7: 6.03% No. 8: 44.24% No. 9: 36.91% No. 10: 11.87% No. 11: 0.90% No. 12: 0.05% |
Scores to watch: A 197.525 will guarantee at least a No. 8 seed, and 197.150 would prevent Michigan from being able to pass.
No. 9 Missouri
| Current NQS | 197.1906 |
| Road Scores | 197.325, 197.3, 197.275, 197.225, |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.225 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.15 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 7 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 10 |
| Model Predictions | No. 7: 5.47% No. 8: 43.24% No. 9: 43.30% No. 10: 7.99% |
Score to watch: 197.150 will guarantee at least a No. 9 seed.
No. 10 Michigan
| Current NQS | 197.15 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.425, 197.225, 197.1, 197.1, 196.775 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.1861 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 197.0639 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 7 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 12 |
| Model Predictions | No. 7: 0.11% No. 8: 4.42% No. 9: 16.44% No. 10: 69.46% No. 11: 8.92% No. 12: 0.65% |
Scores to watch: 197.150 would make a No. 8 ranking possible, while 196.950 would guarantee at least a No. 10 seed.
No. 11 Michigan State
| Current NQS | 197.0563 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.5, 197.3, 197.25, 196.9 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.1278 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.9028 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 9 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 13 |
| Model Predictions | No. 9: 0.23% No. 10: 9.04% No. 11: 65.78% No. 12: 24.94% No. 13: 0.01% |
Scores to watch: 197.550 would guarantee at least a No. 11 seed, while 195.925 is the number to ensure at least a No. 12 ranking.
No. 12 Utah
| Current NQS | 197.0083 |
| Road Scores | 197.4, 197.3, 197.2, 197.125, 195.9, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 197.11 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.88 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 9 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 13 |
| Model Predictions | No. 9: 0.02% No. 10: 1.42% No. 11: 24.35% No. 12: 73.98% No. 13: 0.23% |
Score to watch: A 196.250 would lock in at least a No. 12 seed for the Utes.
Michigan State and Utah are two teams hoping to make nationals but can’t break into the top eight seeds of the bracket at this point, so they will need to focus on holding off Minnesota to maintain their current positions as the third-seeded team at their respective regionals.
No. 13 Minnesota
| Current NQS | 196.8344 |
| Road Scores | 197.075, 196.95, 196.925, 195.475, |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.9306 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.6389 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 11 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 15 |
| Model Predictions | No. 11: 0.01% No. 12: 0.23% No. 13: 98.02% No. 14: 1.49% No. 15: 0.25% |
Scores to watch: A 197.450 would make it possible for the Gophers to pass Michigan State, while 197.250 would make it possible to pass Utah.
The Possible Seeds
The teams in this section are all mathematically capable of being ranked in a seeded position in the bracket, though the likelihood of that happening varies.
No. 14 California
| Current NQS | 196.6975 |
| Road Scores | 196.95, 196.875, 196.875, 196.825, 196.35, 196.0, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.7455 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.5932 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 13 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 18 |
| Model Predictions | No. 13: 1.70% No. 14: 91.99% No. 15: 6.24% No. 16: 0.07% |
Scores to watch: 196.575 would guarantee a top 14 ranking, while 195.575 would lock in at least a No. 16 seed.
No. 15 Clemson
| Current NQS | 196.6438 |
| Road Scores | 196.975, 196.875, 196.875, 196.3, |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.6861 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.5639 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 13 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 19 |
| Model Predictions | No. 13: 0.05% No. 14: 6.52% No. 15: 86.04% No. 16: 6.72% No. 17: 0.63% No. 18: 0.04% |
Score to watch: 196.225 would guarantee a top-16 seed.
No. 16 Auburn
| Current NQS | 196.5472 |
| Road Scores | 197.2, 196.825, 196.15, 196.075, 196.075, |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.6125 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.4975 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 14 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 22 |
| Model Predictions | No. 14: 0.02% No. 15: 5.80% No. 16: 49.59% No. 17: 22.80% No. 18: 14.87% No. 19: 6.72% No. 20: 0.20% |
Score to watch: 197.025 would lock in a top 16 seed for the Tigers.
No. 17 Penn State
| Current NQS | 196.5222 |
| Road Scores | 196.875, 196.55, 196.525, 196.375, 196.125, 196.075 |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.595 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.47 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 14 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 22 |
| Model Predictions | No. 15: 0.17% No. 16: 9.28% No. 17: 23.59% No. 18: 33.45% No. 19: 29.03% No. 20: 3.99% No. 21: 0.47% No. 22: 0.02% |
Score to watch: 196.275 would make it possible for Penn State to finish in the top 16.
No. 18 Ohio State
| Current NQS | 196.5219 |
| Road Scores | 196.85, 196.65, 196.625, 196.425, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.5917 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.4361 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 15 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 22 |
| Model Predictions | No. 15: 0.90% No. 16: 17.33% No. 17: 26.62% No. 18: 23.64% No. 19: 19.93% No. 20: 6.97% No. 21: 3.76% No. 22: 0.85% |
Score to watch: 196.325 would make it possible for Ohio State to earn a seeded spot in the top 16.
No. 19 Kentucky
| Current NQS | 196.5031 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.225, 197.025, 196.8, 196.475, |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.5944 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.2611 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 14 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 24 |
| Model Predictions | No. 15: 0.87% No. 16: 17.24% No. 17: 26.03% No. 18: 23.33% No. 19: 20.14% No. 20: 6.09% No. 21: 3.33% No. 22: 2.31% No. 23: 0.66% |
Score to watch: 196.475 would make it possible for Kentucky to finish in the top 16. Since Kentucky is a regionals host, this is a team to pay particular attention to this weekend, as a top 16 seed would have implications for the regional distribution at the top of the bracket.
No. 20 N.C. State
| Current NQS | 196.4475 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 197.125, 196.7, 196.65, 196.575, 196.125 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.5114 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.3682 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 16 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 23 |
| Model Predictions | No. 17: 0.12% No. 18: 1.25% No. 19: 8.11% No. 20: 33.88% No. 21: 33.05% No. 22: 20.03% No. 23: 3.56% |
While it is mathematically possible for N.C. State to enter the top 16 this weekend, it appears to be a very unlikely result, as none of our model runs resulted in it happening.
No. 21 Iowa
| Current NQS | 196.4472 |
| Road Scores | 196.775, 196.725, 196.475, 196.475, 195.6, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.525 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.285 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 16 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 24 |
| Model Predictions | No. 16: 0.03% No. 17: 0.36% No. 18: 2.21% No. 19: 8.86% No. 20: 26.39% No. 21: 27.10% No. 22: 24.39% No. 23: 10.57% No. 24: 0.09% |
Score to watch: 197.100 would guarantee a top 20 ranking.
No. 22 North Carolina
| Current NQS | 196.4333 |
| Road Scores | 196.75, 196.675, 196.525, 196.375, 196.375, 195.95 |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.51 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.245 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 16 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 24 |
| Model Predictions | No. 16: 0.04% No. 17: 0.15% No. 18: 1.24% No. 19: 6.57% No. 20: 21.50% No. 21: 25.77% No. 22: 29.31% No. 23: 15.00% No. 24: 0.42% |
Out of this group of teams, it appears that the fight for the final three seeded spots will be between Cal, Clemson, Auburn, Penn State, Ohio State, and Kentucky. Ohio State and Kentucky have a higher likelihood of breaking into the top 16 than Penn State, despite currently being ranked lower.
Safe from the First Round
This middle group of teams is locked into a regionals position but cannot break into the top 16. They are also safe from the play-in round.
No. 23 Denver
| Current NQS | 196.3611 |
| Road Scores | 196.95, 196.725, 196.0, 195.925, 195.85, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.4325 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.2425 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 19 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 24 |
| Model Predictions | No. 19: 0.01% No. 20: 1.21% No. 21: 6.80% No. 22: 23.11% No. 23: 66.24% No. 24: 2.63% |
No. 24 BYU
| Current NQS | 196.2333 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 196.575, 196.3, 196.3, 195.675 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.3325 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.13 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 20 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 24 |
| Model Predictions | No. 22: 0.08% No. 23: 3.36% No. 24: 96.56% |
No. 25 Oregon State
| Current NQS | 196.1056 |
| Road Scores | 196.15, 195.825, 195.775, 195.55, 195.45, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 196.1056 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 196.1056 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 25 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 25 |
| Model Predictions | No. 25: 100.00% |
No. 26 Southern Utah
| Current NQS | 195.955 |
| Road Scores | 196.825, 195.85, 195.825, 195.675, 195.55, 195.525, |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.955 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.8175 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 26 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 28 |
| Model Predictions | No. 26: 34.13% No. 27: 33.78% No. 28: 32.09% |
The Possible First Round Teams
This group of teams is locked into a regionals position but is on the bubble for the play-in round.
No. 27 Maryland
| Current NQS | 195.9 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 196.225, 196.05, 195.7, 195.6, |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.9704 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.7841 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 26 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 29 |
| Model Predictions | No. 26: 50.24% No. 27: 29.63% No. 28: 20.11% No. 29: 0.02% |
Score to watch: 194.750 would guarantee a top 28 ranking, which would likely keep the Terps out of the first round.
No. 28 Utah State
| Current NQS | 195.855 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.9477 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.7818 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 26 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 29 |
| Model Predictions | No. 26: 16.16% No. 27: 36.61% No. 28: 47.16% No. 29: 0.07% |
Score to watch: A 195.200 would keep Utah State at No. 28 or higher, essentially guaranteeing a bye in the first round.
The Definite First Round Teams
These teams are guaranteed to make regionals but cannot rise above No. 29, meaning they will almost certainly be participating in the first round.
No. 29 San Jose State
| Current NQS | 195.7167 |
| Road Scores | 196.075, 196.0, 195.725, 195.475, 195.175, 195.075, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.78 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.6125 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 29 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 33 |
| Model Predictions | No. 29: 58.16% No. 30: 31.06% No. 31: 7.75% No. 32: 2.88% No. 33: 0.15% |
No. 31 Arizona State
| Current NQS | 195.6306 |
| Road Scores | 196.0, 195.95, 195.75, 195.55, 195.475, 194.925, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.7175 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.51 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 29 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 35 |
| Model Predictions | No. 29: 2.11% No. 30: 13.09% No. 31: 34.20% No. 32: 32.17% No. 33: 13.42% No. 34: 4.96% No. 35: 0.05% |
No. 32 Nebraska
| Current NQS | 195.6219 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 196.025, 195.75, 195.6, |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.7556 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.5083 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 29 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 35 |
| Model Predictions | No. 29: 3.22% No. 30: 15.08% No. 31: 36.21% No. 32: 28.26% No. 33: 11.99% No. 34: 5.11% No. 35: 0.13% |
The Regionals Bubble
These teams are all mathematically capable of finishing the weekend in the top 36 or outside it. In total, we have 11 teams battling for the final five spots in the regionals field.
No. 30 Arizona
| Current NQS | 195.6906 |
| Road Scores | 195.825, 195.35, 195.25, 195.0, |
| Home Scores** | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.7944 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.4306 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 27 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 37 |
| Model Predictions | No. 28: 0.09% No. 29: 36.6% No. 30: 40.17% No. 31: 12.90% No. 32: 6.41% No. 33: 2.59% No. 34: 1.15% No. 35: 0.09% |
While it is technically possible for Arizona to miss regionals, that’s due to its season low score of 193.350, which gives it a lower possible NQS than its neighbors in the rankings. The odds of the Wildcats finishing outside of the top 36, though, are extremely low, and our model did not predict that happening in any of its runs.
Scores to watch: Arizona needs only a 193.750 to guarantee its spot at regionals, while a 196.525 would make it possible for the Wildcats to avoid the first round.
No. 33 Air Force
| Current NQS | 195.59 |
| Road Scores | 196.3, 195.925, 195.825, 195.75, 195.675, 194.225, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.7318 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.4409 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 29 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 37 |
| Model Predictions | No. 29: 0.05% No. 30: 0.87% No. 31: 6.68% No. 32: 21.19% No. 33: 42.68% No. 34: 25.05% No. 35: 3.35% No. 36: 0.13% |
Like Arizona, our model did not predict Air Force would miss regionals in any of its runs.
Score to watch: A 194.325 would ensure Air Force makes regionals.
No. 34 Central Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.5437 |
| Road Scores | 196.025, 195.925, 195.9, 195.275, 195.25, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.6056 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.4556 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 30 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 37 |
| Model Predictions | No. 30: 0.10% No. 31: 1.93% No. 32: 9.04% No. 33: 28.21% No. 34: 52.47% No. 35: 8.07% No. 36: 0.18% |
Similar to Arizona and Air Force, our model did not have any runs in which Central Michigan finished lower than No. 36.
Score to watch: 194.925 would clinch Central Michigan’s regionals spot.
No. 35 Washington
| Current NQS | 195.415 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 196.3, 195.725, 195.625, 195.225, 194.4 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.5205 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.2477 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 30 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 42 |
| Model Predictions | No. 32: 0.03% No. 33: 0.97% No. 34: 10.45% No. 35: 58.87% No. 36: 17.72% Out: 11.96% |
Washington is the highest-ranked team our model predicted could miss regionals, though with only a small chance of doing so.
Score to watch: Washington could clinch its regionals spot by scoring a 196.075 or higher.
No. 36 Pittsburgh
| Current NQS | 195.3722 |
| Road Scores | 196.0, 195.35, 195.325, 194.875, 194.775, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.475 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.3 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 32 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 40 |
| Model Predictions | No. 33: 0.02% No. 34: 0.25% No. 35: 12.03% No. 36: 37.12% Out: 50.58% |
Pitt is the highest-ranked team that cannot guarantee a regional berth with a certain score. Instead, the Panthers will have to score as high as possible and hope the other teams on the bubble don’t hit the scores they need to qualify.
No. 37 Rutgers
| Current NQS | 195.3639 |
| Road Scores | 196.175, 195.925, 195.75, 195.675, 194.975, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.4825 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.1875 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 32 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 43 |
| Model Predictions | No. 33: 0.02% No. 34: 0.45% No. 35: 17.35% No. 36: 43.57% Out: 38.61% |
Score to watch: Rutgers can guarantee its spot at regionals with a 196.475.
No. 38 Penn
| Current NQS | 195.2861 |
| Road Scores | 195.9, 195.8, 195.325, 195.1, 195.075, 195.075, 194.85, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.3575 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.165 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 35 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 43 |
| Model Predictions | No. 35: 0.06% No. 36: 0.85% Out: 99.09% |
Score to watch: 194.925 would make it possible for Penn to make regionals.
No. 39 Boise State
| Current NQS | 195.2556 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 196.275, 195.35, 195.25 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.3575 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.135 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 35 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 44 |
| Model Predictions | No. 35: 0.03% No. 36: 0.90% Out: 99.07% |
Score to watch: 195.200 would make it possible for Boise State to qualify to regionals.
No. 40 Ball State
| Current NQS | 195.2361 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 195.3, 195.225, 195.025, 194.275 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.31 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.0925 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 35 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 44 |
| Model Predictions | No. 35: 0.01% No. 36: 0.21% Out: 99.78% |
Score to watch: 195.375 would make it possible for Ball State to make the regional field.
No. 41 Illinois
| Current NQS | 195.1972 |
| Road Scores | 195.8, 195.65, 195.45, 195.15, 194.95, 194.475, |
| Home Scores | |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.295 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.0775 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 36 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 44 |
| Model Predictions | No. 36: 0.01% Out: 99.99% |
No. 42 Towson
| Current NQS | 195.1886 |
| Road Scores | |
| Home Scores | 195.9, 195.675, 195.325, 194.725 |
| Highest Possible NQS | 195.2479 |
| Lowest Possible NQS | 195.0521 |
| Highest Possible Ranking | 36 |
| Lowest Possible Ranking | 44 |
| Model Predictions | Out: 100.00% |
While all of these 11 teams are technically on the bubble for qualifying to the regionals field, it’s clear from the numbers that Arizona, Air Force, and Central Michigan are very likely to qualify, while Penn, Boise State, Ball State, Illinois, and Towson are unlikely to qualify. That leaves three teams that are most likely in contention for the final two spots in the field: Washington, Pitt, and Rutgers. However, all it takes is one team to have a superb or abysmal performance to throw off predicted outcomes, so it will surely be an exciting weekend to watch on the bubble front!
Regionals Projection: Individuals
We’ve simulated the individual qualification as if regionals were to start tomorrow in order to show who’s currently in a position to qualify and who is on the outside looking in. Keep in mind that teams participating in the play-in round at regionals are eligible to qualify as individuals, so team ranking changes can affect the pool of athletes eligible for this list.
Projected All-Around Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Magglie Slife | No. 33 Air Force | 39.565 |
| Chloe Cho | No. 41 Illinois | 39.520 |
| Gabrielle Dildy | No. 37 Rutgers | 39.400 |
| Kimberly Smith | No. 31 Arizona State | 39.360 |
| Luciana Alvarado-Reid | No. 34 Central Michigan | 39.345 |
| Abigayle Martin | No. 30 Arizona | 39.305 |
| Isabella Minervini | No. 42 Towson | 39.290 |
| Alyssa Bigler | No. 33 Air Force | 39.270 |
| Amelia Moneymaker | No. 59 UC Davis | 39.260 |
| Whitney Jencks | No. 32 Nebraska | 39.205 |
| Kylee Greene | No. 33 Air Force | 39.195 |
| Serena Mullin | No. 46 New Hampshire | 39.155 |
Ball State’s Zoe Middleton is knocking on the door of these qualifiers with a 39.150 NQS, and then Washington’s Kristin Lin is next in line with a 39.115.
Projected Vault Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Kaviana Jurries | No. 29 San Jose State | 9.870 |
| Emily Leese | No. 37 Rutgers | 9.855 |
| Mikaela Pitts | No. 29 San Jose State | 9.850 |
| Charlie Behner | No. 43 Kent State | 9.845 |
| Sophia Isbell | No. 45 Texas Woman’s | 9.840 |
| Lia Kmieciak | No. 34 Central Michigan | 9.840 |
| Jessa Janicke | No. 30 Arizona | 9.840 |
| Jersey Bingman | No. 43 Kent State | 9.835 |
| Sophie Patterson | No. 29 San Jose State | 9.835 |
| Safia El Mammann | No. 31 Arizona State | 9.835 |
| Zoe Middleton | No. 40 Ball State | 9.835 |
| Polina Belanovski | No. 42 Towson | 9.835 |
| Sophia Rice | No. 47 West Virginia | 9.830 |
| Taylor Ingle | No. 50 SEMO | 9.830 |
| Jordan Barrow | No. 38 Penn | 9.830 |
| Jocelyn Lannon | No. 42 Towson | 9.830 |
There is a four-way tie for the alternate position in the current standings, with Isabel Sikon (Nebraska) winning out over Amelia Budd (Temple), Adriana Hoffman (Towson), and Nova Staruk (Bridgeport). Keep an eye on Washington’s Lilly Tubbs and Nebraska’s Reese Baechle, who each have a 9.815 NQS and a counting 9.750 to replace.
Projected Bars Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Lyden Saltness | No. 41 Illinois | 9.905 |
| Lia Kmieciak | No. 34 Central Michigan | 9.905 |
| Ashley Szymanski | No. 40 Ball State | 9.895 |
| Lilly Tubbs | No. 35 Washington | 9.880 |
| Hallie Copperwheat | No. 36 Pittsburgh | 9.875 |
| Molly Peterson | No. 32 Nebraska | 9.860 |
| Jaime Pratt | No. 36 Pittsburgh | 9.860 |
| Reese Samuelson | No. 44 Western Michigan | 9.855 |
| Charlie Behner | No. 43 Kent State | 9.855 |
| Deiah Moody | No. 35 Washington | 9.845 |
| Camryn Chiu | No. 36 Pittsburgh | 9.845 |
| Kristina Shchennikova | No. 39 Boise State | 9.845 |
| Samantha Macasu | No. 29 San Jose State | 9.845 |
| Aubrey Krohnfeldt | No. 30 Arizona | 9.840 |
| Reagan Schenkel | No. 37 Rutgers | 9.840 |
| Kaitlyn Schwab | No. 34 Central Michigan | 9.835 |
Amber Lowe (West Virginia) and Mahleea Werline (Boise State) are tied with Schwab for the final spot, with Lowe currently in the alternate spot thanks to the tiebreaker. However, Werline is still counting a 9.750 toward her NQS so she could easily move up with a high score this weekend.
Projected Beam Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Chelsea Hallinan | No. 35 Washington | 9.890 |
| Mady Harvey | No. 46 New Hampshire | 9.870 |
| Ashley Szymanski | No. 40 Ball State | 9.870 |
| Lilly Tubbs | No. 35 Washington | 9.870 |
| Delaney McMahon | No. 40 Ball State | 9.860 |
| Deiah Moody | No. 35 Washington | 9.855 |
| Sophie Patterson | No. 29 San Jose State | 9.850 |
| Heidi Schultz | No. 43 Kent State | 9.850 |
| Kayla Lee | No. 31 Arizona State | 9.845 |
| Kristin Lin | No. 35 Washington | 9.840 |
| Sydney Kho | No. 39 Boise State | 9.840 |
| Tirzah Wise | No. 30 Arizona | 9.835 |
| Amber Lowe | No. 47 West Virginia | 9.835 |
| Genesis PeBenito | No. 29 San Jose State | 9.825 |
| Summer Clancy | No. 41 Illinois | 9.825 |
| Celia Trotter | No. 42 Towson | 9.825 |
On this event, there was a six-way tie for the final three spots on the list, with Jaidan Kossuth (SEMO), Nya Kraus (Nebraska), and Delaney Adrian (Rutgers) losing out on the tiebreaker. Kossuth is currently in the alternate position, but Kraus is in the best position to increase her NQS since she is counting a 9.775 and has a 9.925 season high.
Projected Floor Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Emma Strom | No. 30 Arizona | 9.925 |
| Abby Royer | No. 66 Southern Connecticut | 9.895 |
| Kyleigh Ghanbari | No. 45 Texas Woman’s | 9.885 |
| Deana Sheremeta | No. 55 George Washington | 9.885 |
| Emily Leese | No. 37 Rutgers | 9.880 |
| Sophia Dewar | No. 51 Brown | 9.870 |
| Lauren Homecillo | No. 32 Nebraska | 9.870 |
| Sophie Hernandez | No. 45 Texas Woman’s | 9.870 |
| Emerson Smith | No. 47 West Virginia | 9.870 |
| Ava Molina | No. 40 Ball State | 9.870 |
| Caitlin McWilliams | No. 35 Washington | 9.865 |
| Carmella Calafati | No. 42 Towson | 9.865 |
| Adriana Hoffman | No. 42 Towson | 9.865 |
| Eden King | No. 41 Illinois | 9.865 |
| Sophia Isbell | No. 45 Texas Woman’s | 9.860 |
| McCall McMullen | No. 46 New Hampshire | 9.860 |
Isbell and McMullen won a seven-way tie for the final two spots, with Halle Gregoire (Arizona State) currently in the alternate position. The other four involved in the tie are Blake Pascal (Boise State), Manama Fofana (Penn), Avah Reichow (UC Davis), and Kristin Lin (Washington).
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