The penultimate weekend of the regular season is here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Teams across the country are chasing last-minute NQS boosts, jockeying for conference championship session spots, and trying to lock in favorable regional seeds before postseason competition begins. Week 11’s Mount features rivalry showdowns, senior night emotions, and several matchups where a single rotation—or even routine—could swing both the meet result and the rankings. From a marquee clash between Oklahoma and Michigan to a classic West Coast battle between UCLA and Utah, here’s what to watch as the regular season nears its dramatic conclusion.
Must-Watch Meets
Oklahoma at Michigan
Friday, March 13 at 7 p.m. ET | B1G+
Prediction: 98.2% Oklahoma, 1.8% Michigan
The penultimate weekend of the regular season features two recent national champions in a non-conference dual meet. Oklahoma is looking to finish the regular season undefeated and secure the No. 1 seed at the SEC championship while Michigan aims to improve its regional seeding. The Sooners have been dominant after a somewhat shaky start, posting five scores of 198 or higher since February behind the emergence of Mackenzie Estep as one of the nation’s top freshmen, alongside Addison Fatta, who has stepped up in the all-around.
With the nation’s top-ranked vault and beam teams, Oklahoma may appear to have the edge, but Michigan can’t be overlooked. Fifth-years Carly Bauman and Reyna Guggino lead the Wolverines alongside top-10 beam standout Kayli Boozer and sophomore floor star Jahzara Ranger. If any of Oklahoma’s earlier-season mistakes resurface, Michigan could capitalize and make this meet closer than expected.
Notes about the predictions: Beating top-ranked Oklahoma will be a tough task for Michigan. Even if Oklahoma counts a fall, the Sooners still have a 72% chance of winning. More important will be Michigan’s total score for NQS implications. The Wolverines sit right outside of the top eight, and while they can’t guarantee moving up without some help from other teams, a score of 196.550 or higher will ensure neither Michigan State nor Utah can pass them. Michigan has an 89% chance of hitting that mark this week.
Utah at UCLA
Saturday, March 14 at 10:30 p.m. ET | BTN
Prediction: 72.6% UCLA, 27.4% Utah
Fans love this classic rivalry meet, though in recent years, Utah fans have had more to celebrate: The Red Rocks haven’t lost the matchup since 2019. This season, however, UCLA may have its best chance to change that. Consistent performances have helped the Bruins earn top-10 rankings on all four events, and aside from a dip at their last home meet, their team totals have steadily landed in the high 197 range.
Utah’s season has followed a different trajectory, with higher highs and lower lows, and the time to secure a strong postseason position is now. Vault is the one event where the Red Rocks rank ahead of the Bruins, but Utah also has a higher scoring ceiling on bars and could make an early statement there in the first rotation. Expect a high-energy meet and a lively crowd, especially with senior night festivities. Keep an eye on UCLA’s Jordan Chiles on floor—she’s always a threat for a 10.0.
Notes about the predictions: Katelyn Rosen is expected to remain out until the postseason, so she has been removed from our simulations. Removing her only dropped UCLA’s win chances by 2%, though, as the team’s depth has proven to be reliable. Utah’s low chances of winning this meet come from its struggles on beam and floor this season. Hitting above a 49.300 on both events would give them a 51% chance of winning, but it has only done that once on each event this season and never in the same meet.
Upset Alert
BYU at Clemson
Friday, March 13 at 6 p.m. ET | ACCN
Prediction: 84.8% Clemson, 15.2% BYU
It’s shaping up to be a big-cat showdown between the No. 14 Tigers and No. 24 Cougars. Though the teams are separated by 10 spots in the national rankings, their best scores are only about a tenth apart, setting up a matchup that could come down to the final routine. Clemson holds a slight edge, having surpassed 197 once this season while maintaining impressive consistency week to week. BYU has seen more variation in its totals but has come close to breaking the 197 barrier. The Cougars’ scoring potential and dependable core keep them firmly in the mix. With senior night emotions and postseason positioning in play, if BYU can push past Clemson’s steady pace, an upset could be within reach.
Notes about the predictions: Clemson enters this matchup with the advantage on every event, but a win on both bars and beam for BYU would make it the favorite to win the meet. Three times this season, Clemson has fallen below 48.750 on an event. Doing so again this meet would also give the advantage to BYU.
Nebraska and Penn State at North Carolina
Friday, March 13 at 7 p.m. ET | ACCNX
Prediction: 52.9% North Carolina, 44.2% Penn State, 2.9% Nebraska
North Carolina and Penn State could deliver one of the closer matchups of the weekend. Both teams sit just outside the seeded positions for regionals and will be looking for a big score to improve their chances of moving up. North Carolina is coming off a season high and its first score above 197 last weekend, thanks in large part to a stellar beam rotation. Sydney Seabrooks, Claire Stippich and JoJo Valahovic will look to replicate that performance.
Penn State has yet to break 197 on the road this season, but the penultimate regular-season meet offers another opportunity. Just as beam will be key for the Tar Heels, the Nittany Lions will likely need a strong beam rotation of their own—highlighted by routines from Ashley Maul and Dani Latronica—to pull off an upset and potentially reach that 197 mark away from home.
Nebraska is also keeping an eye on its score as it tries to move out of the play-in round at regionals. The Cornhuskers have not surpassed 196 in more than a month, making that a key target this weekend. Nebraska struggled on floor last week, so that event could provide the most room for improvement and a potential boost to the team total.
Notes about the predictions: In one of the closest predictions of the week, North Carolina has the slight edge due to its strength on vault this season. Falling behind Penn State on that event would give the Nittany Lions a 69% chance of winning. Nebraska is currently hoping to get out of a play-in spot for regionals. A 195.175, a score which the Cornhuskers have an 85% chance of hitting, would make it possible to reach No. 28, depending on how others do this weekend.
Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.
There’s Other Stuff Happening Too
We’d be remiss to let a preview for week two go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.
- Georgia at Alabama is this year’s edition of a classic NCAA rivalry that should be hotter than ever. Georgia clawed back to get the win against Missouri at home last week, but this should be a much tougher fight. Now that Alabama freshman Azaraya Ra-Akbar has finally scored a 10.0 on bars, the floodgates might have opened for her to get another perfect score at home.
- Both Arkansas and LSU are coming into the PMAC after record-setting performances, with LSU turning in the nation’s highest road score at Florida last weekend and Arkansas breaking the SEC attendance record. While the Razorbacks are in unfriendly territory this week, they could benefit from an LSU senior night scoring boost for a big total to cap off the regular season.
- ACC championship seeding is still up in the air going into the weekend. California, North Carolina, and N.C. State are currently fighting for two spots to join Stanford and Clemson in the evening session, while one will join Pittsburgh in the afternoon session. Their meets this weekend will be important.
Fantasy Corner
If you’re diving into fantasy gymnastics this year, you’re aiming to crush it—right? Fantasy Central has you covered with smart tips and strategic insights all season long. Tara Graeve and data editor Dara Tan will keep you up to speed on injuries, scoring trends, under-the-radar waiver wire gems, and everything else you need to stay ahead of the competition.
CGN Pick’em
Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks, then tune into the meets to see how well you do!
How to Watch
Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.
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Article by the editors of College Gym News
