By week seven, the stakes are unmistakable. Rankings are tightening, road scores are starting to matter, and the data is no longer forgiving teams for “early-season quirks.” This week’s Mount features some of the most revealing matchups of the season so far, including a heavyweight showdown that gives Oklahoma its slimmest margin yet and conference clashes that could reshape both standings and perception. With win probabilities narrowing and individual events carrying outsized influence, here’s what to watch as the regular season hits its most competitive stretch.
Must-Watch Meets
Oklahoma at Florida
Friday, Feb. 13 at 7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Prediction: 62.6% Oklahoma, 37.4% Florida
Another week brings another top-five SEC showdown. Oklahoma enters on a high after a massive double-meet weekend, topping 198 in wins both at home and at the Metroplex Challenge. Freshman Mackenzie Estep stepped up in a major way, earning the Sooners’ first perfect 10 of the season on vault and making her all-around debut after cracking the beam lineup for the first time. Paired with Addison Fatta, Estep gives Oklahoma a formidable all-around duo as the postseason push begins to take shape.
For Florida, the key is capitalizing on home-floor advantage. The Gators have lost just once to Oklahoma in Gainesville—back in 2022—and their scores have consistently trended higher at home this season. But last week’s loss to Missouri exposed vulnerabilities, particularly on bars, where uncharacteristic mistakes led to a season low. Those errors cannot resurface if Florida hopes to upset the reigning national champion. Bars especially will be pivotal; a clean rotation is essential to keeping pace by the halfway mark.
Notes about the Predictions: Despite still being the favorite, this match features Oklahoma’s lowest win percentage of the season by over 20 percentage points. The Sooners’ advantage largely comes on vault, with predicted scores almost two tenths higher on average than Florida’s. However, an event win or a 49.400 or higher on vault for the Gators would swing the advantage their way.
Michigan at UCLA
Friday, Feb. 14 at 7 p.m. ET | B1G+
Prediction: 90.8% UCLA, 9.2% Michigan
The top two ranked teams in the Big Ten are meeting in Westwood this weekend. Despite the close proximity in average, this one might not be that close. Michigan has shown some great gymnastics to this point, especially on beam, but the Wolverines don’t have the top-end scoring potential to match the Bruins. UCLA broke 198 last time out at home and will look to do the same this week. The attention was largely on Jordan Chiles and her 10 last weekend, but Ashlee Sullivan had a stellar meet as well and will be looking to repeat her performance to help UCLA secure the victory.
Notes about the Predictions: Michigan and UCLA enter this meet evenly matched on beam, but UCLA has the advantage on the other three events. Last weekend, the Wolverines had their most well-rounded meet of the season with no scores below 49.225. If they can increase that just a little to no events below 49.275, this becomes a 50/50 matchup.
Upset Alert
Southern Utah at Oregon State
Saturday, Feb. 14 at 5 p.m. ET | YouTube
Prediction: 72.2% Oregon State, 27.8% Southern Utah
The Birds and the Beavs will go head-to-head on Saturday, and with the teams’ average scores separated only by a third of a tenth, this could be one of the tightest matchups of the weekend. No. 27 Southern Utah has been a model of consistency, remaining stable around a 195.500 for the first several meets before notching its first 196 of the season last week. There, senior Kayla Pardue produced a massive 9.925 on vault, putting an exclamation mark on her signature event. As the season progresses, the Thunderbirds will be on the hunt for more 9.9’s to stay competitive, but they are doubtless capable of hitting their routines and going tenth for tenth right to the end.
Oregon State, sitting at No. 26, has seen more irregularity to its totals than the Thunderbirds, boasting higher highs while conceding to lower lows. The ceiling is greater for the Beavers, having reached a 196.600 already this season. But the only scores to best a 196 have come at home, and those highs are tempered by shakier road performances. While that may have bigger picture NQS implications, that fact certainly won’t hurt this Saturday as the Beavers will enjoy a home-court advantage. This meet is guaranteed to be close if each team brings their A-game. Will the Thunderbirds’ steady output earn them an edge, or can the Beavers repeat their best to take the home win?
Notes about the Predictions: Home meet advantage is the name of the game here. Oregon State’s predicted scores on both bars and floor are, on average, a tenth higher at home than they would be away. If this meet were at Southern Utah, it would be considered a 50/50 matchup.
Metroplex Session Two
with Air Force, California, Georgia, and Stanford
Saturday, Feb. 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET | None
Prediction: 67.2% Georgia, 28.3% Stanford, 4.5% California, 0.1% Air Force
As a midseason neutral-site meet, Metroplex provides a valuable checkpoint ahead of the change to NQS rankings. Georgia looks to rebound after last week’s loss to Arkansas and, on paper, should be favored in this session. However, another shaky beam rotation could open the door for a surging Stanford squad. Junior Lily Smith has experienced rare inconsistency on beam this season, posting scores ranging from 9.600 to 9.975. A steady hit from her will be critical to Georgia’s stability.
To capitalize on any GymDog miscues, though, Stanford must accomplish something it has yet to do in 2026: put together a complete meet. The Cardinal hit all six beam routines last week, yet improved by less than a tenth from the previous meet—when it counted a fall. Strong performances from its all-around trio—senior Anna Roberts and freshmen Ana Barbosu and Levi Jung-Ruivivar—could provide a needed boost, particularly on vault, which has been the team’s weakest event.
California also bears watching. The Golden Bears are trending upward after earning their highest score of the season in a win at Clemson last week. While Air Force isn’t projected to contend for the top spot, the Falcons are coming off a program-record performance led by junior Maggie Slife, who matched that momentum with a 9.975 on bars—the highest individual score in program history.
Notes about the Predictions: Freshman CaMarah Williams has quickly become the most impactful gymnast for Georgia, surpassing Lily Smith. Both contribute 9-10% of the win probability, so either one not at full strength would hurt Georgia’s win chances. Stanford’s weakest event this season has been vault. A season high 49.225 or higher would give the Cardinal a slight advantage to win the meet. California has yet to break 197 this season, which puts it at a disadvantage compared to Georgia and Stanford, which have only gone under 197 once and twice, respectively. Finally hitting that 197 mark would give the Golden Bears a 42% chance of winning the meet.
Metroplex Session Three
with Auburn, Boise State, N.C. State, and North Carolina
Saturday, Feb. 15 at 8:30 p.m. ET | None
Prediction: 66.0% Auburn, 26.3% North Carolina, 7.6% N.C. State, 0.1% Boise State
Auburn’s 197.150 in its January win over N.C. State remains its season high. While the Tigers would welcome a similar result in this rematch, their performances have been uneven since that season opener. They’ll arrive in Fort Worth following a Friday clash with LSU in Baton Rouge, and the quick turnaround raises questions about momentum and potential fatigue.
Bars has been Auburn’s Achilles’ heel, ranking well behind its other three events; the Tigers have surpassed 49.000 just twice this season. Still, the event carries significant upside. Sophomore Katelyn Jong and junior Olivia Greaves have both fallen short of their usual standard in recent weeks, but each owns a career high north of 9.900. A hit set from either could provide a crucial spark.
Like Auburn, N.C. State has already eclipsed 197 this season and is coming off a decisive win over North Carolina, highlighted by sophomore Syniya Thomas’ 9.975 on floor. North Carolina freshman Sydney Seabrooks countered with an impressive 39.525 in the all-around, and the in-state rivals will meet again two days before Metroplex. Meanwhile, Boise State aims to build on back-to-back improving performances and secure another 195-plus road score.
Notes about the Predictions: Auburn enters this session with the advantage on every event except bars. If it can post the highest score on that event, its win chances shoot up to over 87%. North Carolina has been on a downward trajectory with its beam scores the past few weeks, so the Tar Heels will want to win that event to increase their win chances to 55%. N.C. State hit 49+ on all four events for the first time this season last week. Doing so again would increase its chances of winning the meet to 34%.
Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.
There’s Other Stuff Happening Too
We’d be remiss to let a preview for week seven go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.
- N.C. State at North Carolina came down to the wire last week, so the anticipation for round two of this rivalry should be interesting and close. The Wolfpack has won the last five dual meets against the Tar Heels, but if any year is possible for the Tar Heels to strike back, it’s this one. Syniya Thomas, who just earned the first 9.975 for the Wolfpack since Chloe Negrete last year, and star North Carolina freshman Sydney Seabrooks, will look to go head-to-head on floor and make that competition especially intriguing.
- Arkansas is coming off a program-record-tying vault rotation at Metroplex last weekend, made all the more impressive by the fact that it was the Razorbacks’ second vault rotation of the weekend. They head to Alabama Friday, which continues to hang in a really ideal position midway through February. This meet is definitely on upset watch.
- Last week’s Utah meet was historic in its celebration of the program’s alumni, and tonight the Utes write another chapter in its rich history with an iconic rivalry meet against BYU. They had a solid meet last weekend in which they “finally” put everything together for a complete meet, but we’ve seen far more “up in the air” moments for the Utes. All that to say, this meet may be closer than usual.
Fantasy Corner
If you’re diving into fantasy gymnastics this year, you’re aiming to crush it—right? Fantasy Central has you covered with smart tips and strategic insights all season long. Tara Graeve and data editor Dara Tan will keep you up to speed on injuries, scoring trends, under-the-radar waiver wire gems, and everything else you need to stay ahead of the competition.
CGN Pick’em
Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks, then tune into the meets to see how well you do!
How to Watch
Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.
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Article by the editors of College Gym News
