By week six, the season has fully shifted from experimentation to expectation. Lineups are largely set, home-road splits are becoming apparent in the data, and the margin for error is shrinking rapidly. This week’s Mount leans into that tension, spotlighting heavyweight matchups, true toss-up duals, and upset alerts where a single event could swing the outcome. With our simulations highlighting just how thin the line is between favorite and challenger, here’s what to watch as teams push toward the heart of the regular season.
Must-Watch Meets
UW-Oshkosh at UW-La Crosse
Friday, Feb. 6 at 7 p.m. ET | Free live stream
Prediction: 67.4% UW-Oshkosh, 32.6% UW-La Crosse
If I had a mic to tap to get everyone’s attention—even you, LSU, Florida, and Utah fans—I’d be using it right now, locking eyes until the chatter stopped. Oshkosh just finished second in a quad on the road this past Sunday. “So what?” Friends, it finished second only to Ball State, ahead of SEMO and Illinois State. SEMO was right on the Titans’ heels, separated by the tiniest of deductions, but Oshkosh did what it needed to do: hit routines, put everything on the mat, and post a 194.525 while looking confident and composed. If a Division III team delivering that kind of performance in a mixed-division quad isn’t enough to get your attention—and it should be—then watching Oshkosh go head-to-head with the reigning NCGA champion ought to be. And no shade to Florida fans—I was doing the Gator Chomp back in 1999.
Notes about the Predictions: The win probability for this meet has swung back and forth all season, but Oshkosh’s season-high 194-plus last weekend, paired with UW–La Crosse’s season-low 191, tips the scales toward the Titans. Bars has been the Eagles’ biggest hurdle, with the team breaking 48 just once so far. If La Crosse can take that event, its win chances jump to 71%.
Alabama at Oklahoma
Friday, Feb. 6 at 8:45 p.m. ET | SECN
Prediction: 93.6% Oklahoma, 6.4% Alabama
In what could be the must-see SEC showdown of the weekend, Oklahoma and Alabama meet in Norman after very different Week 5 outings. The Sooners escaped Kentucky with the win, but it didn’t come easily—uncharacteristic errors on bars and floor kept the team total well below Oklahoma’s usual standard. Faith Torrez was sharp in her two events, and Hannah Scheible’s late return to the vault lineup provided a timely boost with Torrez sitting out that event for the second straight meet. The last time Oklahoma competed at home, it posted the highest team score of the season to date, and the expectation will be to match—or surpass—that level with a double-meet weekend ahead.
Alabama, meanwhile, had to battle early landing issues but closed strong, using a massive 49.675 on floor to secure a win over Oregon State. Jamison Sears and Gabby Gladieux delivered back-to-back 9.950s at the end of the lineup, underscoring the Crimson Tide’s contender potential—provided it can stick vault. Facing the No. 1 vault team in the country is a tall order, but if Alabama finds those landings and Oklahoma repeats the mistakes we’ve seen creep in over the past few weeks, this one could come down to the wire.
Notes about the Predictions:
Oklahoma enters with over a 90% projected win probability, driven largely by the meet being in Norman. If this matchup were in Tuscaloosa, the Sooners’ win chances would drop to 86%. The teams are closely matched on bars and floor, so Alabama’s clearest path to an upset lies in winning vault and beam—doing so would push the Crimson Tide’s win probability to 53%.
UCLA at Minnesota
Saturday, Feb. 7 at 5 p.m. ET | B1G+
Prediction: 94.8% UCLA, 5.2% Minnesota
UCLA joined the 198 club last week at home against Washington, where the Bruins put up a complete meet with a stellar floor rotation. One of the most talked about parts of that meet was Jordan Chiles’ 10 on floor and post-meet quote saying her goal is to break the 10 record. While the viability of that can be debated, she will surely be looking for perfection in Minnesota. The Gophers have been a great home team this season. They have yet to break 196 on the road, but have scored above 197 at the last two home meets. This meet, being in Minnesota, will make it more competitive than one might initially think. For Minnesota to have a chance, it will require a great meet from Jordyn Lyden and Arianna Ostrum, who have both been some of the biggest scorers for the team thus far.
Notes about the Predictions: Minnesota has pulled off multiple home upsets so far this season, which is what brought the Gophers’ win chances up from just 1% to 5% going into this meet. Minnesota’s best performance to date had it scoring no lower than 49.250 on any event. Doing so again this week would increase its win chances all the way to 66%.
Upset Alert
Georgia at Arkansas
Friday, Feb. 6 at 7 p.m. ET | SECN
Prediction: 55% Georgia, 45% Arkansas
A top-10, under-the-radar showdown heads to Fayetteville this week as Georgia and Arkansas square off in a pivotal SEC dual. Georgia is riding the momentum of an impressive double-meet weekend, winning its home quad before taking down conference rival Auburn two days later. Lily Smith continued her stellar season by earning the first perfect 10 of her career on floor, while freshman CaMarah Williams had a breakout performance, scoring 9.900 or better in five of six routines, highlighted by a 9.975 on floor. The GymDogs have steadily climbed the rankings, but they’re still searching for a fully hit road meet—this could be their chance to put it all together.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is looking to rebound after a disappointing showing against Florida. Falls from Frankie and Morgan Price on floor and an uncharacteristic beam miss from fifth-year Cami Weaver led to a season-low team score. A return to Bud Walton Arena should help restore confidence, as the Razorbacks traditionally thrive at home, but a bounce-back performance from key veterans will be essential if they want to upset the nation’s top-ranked floor team.
Notes about the Predictions: Georgia has been one of the fastest-rising teams in the country this season. Early projections favored Arkansas 60/40, but the GymDogs’ steady week-to-week improvement has flipped them into favorites entering week six. Arkansas struggled on floor last weekend, counting a fall; reaching at least a 49.300 on the event would swing the Razorbacks back into slight-favorite territory.
Florida at Missouri
Friday, Feb. 6 at 9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Prediction: 93.8% Florida, 6.2% Missouri
After last season’s national semifinals stunner, Florida and Missouri meet again this weekend in Columbia with plenty on the line as the SEC race tightens. The No. 2 Gators are chasing both a win and a much-needed strong road score. Florida has been dominant at home but less polished away from Gainesville, most notably on vault at Auburn. Avoiding a repeat of that rotation will be key as the Gators look to solidify their place near the top of the national rankings. The return of Selena Harris-Miranda and eMjae Frazier to the all-around paid immediate dividends, with the seniors now ranked second and third nationally, while Skye Blakely and Kayla DiCello continue to build momentum in their comeback seasons, all scoring 9.900-plus in their last outing.
Missouri, meanwhile, is steadily finding its footing and came within two tenths of upsetting LSU last week. The Tigers have the tools to contend again at home, led by Hannah Horton, who posted a career-high 9.950 on bars and now owns season highs of 9.925 or better on all three of her events. Railey Jackson, Addison Lawrence, and Lauren Macpherson also added 9.950s, underscoring Missouri’s growing depth. To challenge Florida, the Tigers will need to push their scores closer to season-best territory across all four events.
Notes about the Predictions: Florida counted a fall in its last road meet and still escaped with a win, but that margin likely won’t exist here—another fall drops its win chances to 54%. Missouri enters off a meet with no rotation below 49.275; raising each event to at least 49.325 would make the Tigers slight favorites at home.
California at Clemson
Saturday, Feb. 7 at 6 p.m. ET | ACCN
Prediction: 57.8% Clemson, 42.2% California
One of the season’s most anticipated matchups arrives this week as Clemson and California square off, marking Justin Howell and Liz Crandall-Howell’s first meeting with their former team. Both programs are trending up after season-high scores last weekend: Clemson broke 197 for the first time since 2024, while Cal increased its previous best by nearly half a tenth. With both teams firmly in the midst of new eras, this meet feels like a measuring stick for where they truly stand.
Clemson will lean on its leaders, particularly Brie Clark, Tara Walsh, and former Golden Bear Ella Cesario. Cesario claimed the all-around title in the Tigers’ last meet, while Clark has been a model of consistency and now ranks No. 4 nationally on floor. Walsh continues to anchor multiple lineups and has been especially reliable on vault, where she averages a 9.850.
California enters with momentum of its own after narrowly falling to Stanford. The Golden Bears have been rotating athletes through their lineups, but Annalise Newman-Achee remains the steady all-around presence, coming off career highs on vault and beam. Freshman Tonya Paulsson is also emerging, highlighted by a 9.925 on bars last week. That event could be pivotal: Cal ranks ninth nationally on bars, and a strong rotation there may set the tone early.
Notes about the Predictions: Our simulations give this meet a 30% chance of being decided by two tenths or less. The home-floor edge slightly favors Clemson due to higher floor potential, but if California can win that event, its win probability jumps to 77%.
North Carolina at N.C. State
Sunday, Feb. 8 at 4 p.m. ET | ACCN
Prediction: 61.4% North Carolina, 38.6% N.C. State
This in-state rivalry is always a must-watch, and fans get a bonus this year with a home-and-home over the next two weeks. Last season, N.C. State claimed both regular-season meetings, but North Carolina had the last word with the higher finish at the ACC championship. Early in 2026, the Tar Heels have been the steadier squad, breaking 196 in every meet and riding that consistency to a higher national ranking. Still, the Wolfpack showed its ceiling at its most recent home meet, where it also topped 196. With this installment in Raleigh, the margin could be razor-thin—especially if Ashley Knight makes her return to the vault lineup, which would provide a significant boost.
Notes about the Predictions: N.C. State is projected to win floor, but it will likely need to take a second event to become the favorite overall. Bars is the most probable swing event (32%), though pairing floor with a beam win would give the Wolfpack its strongest path to victory, boosting its win chances to 86%.
Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.
There’s Other Stuff Happening Too
We’d be remiss to let a preview for week two go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.
- Kentucky put some of the questions about its potential to rest last week, holding its own against Oklahoma. The Wildcats still have a ways to go to get back into seeding contention, and this weekend against a weaker Auburn team could be another chance to do it.
- Oklahoma has a double meet weekend, with the second coming at session one of Metroplex, taking place on Sunday against Arizona, Arkansas, and Texas Woman’s. Metroplex is always a fun way to get teams together—teams you wouldn’t normally see at the same competition—and based on some of the missteps from Arizona this season compared to TWU’s amazing year thus far, things may be closer than expected.
- A surging Michigan travels to Ohio State in a classic rivalry meet, “The Game” of gymnastics. Beam is proving to be a bright spot for both teams, each having top 15 lineups in the country.
Fantasy Corner
If you’re diving into fantasy gymnastics this year, you’re aiming to crush it—right? Fantasy Central has you covered with smart tips and strategic insights all season long. Tara Graeve and data editor Dara Tan will keep you up to speed on injuries, scoring trends, under-the-radar waiver wire gems, and everything else you need to stay ahead of the competition.
CGN Pick’em
Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks, then tune into the meets to see how well you do!
How to Watch
Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.
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Article by the editors of College Gym News
