The Mount: Week 7 Previews and Predictions

Week seven features a packed slate of exciting matchups, including top-tier competitions like Auburn at Florida and Oklahoma at LSU. Teams continue to rise and fall in the rankings as they fight for postseason positioning. Plus, the Metroplex Challenge and the GymQuarters Invitational promise to showcase the nation’s best talent—hopefully fans will have a way to see them. Additionally, regional clashes like Minnesota at Ohio State and West Virginia at BYU could have major implications on team standings. We preview all the action and what it means for these programs heading into the latter half of the season.

Must-Watch Meets

Auburn at Florida

Friday, Feb. 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 96.4% Florida, 3.6% Auburn

While Florida enters this meet as the favorite, the Gators are seeking redemption after a tough loss at Arkansas last week. Two beam falls opened the door for Arkansas to secure a comfortable win, and Florida will be determined not to let history repeat itself. Could this lead to some lineup changes? On the other side, Auburn is riding high after a narrow win over Georgia at home, thanks to a stellar 49.550 floor rotation. If the Tigers can replicate that season-high performance, and if Florida’s beam struggles continue, this meet could be much closer than anticipated. 

Notes about the predictions: Florida was already the heavy favorite in this meet, but Auburn’s chances took an additional hit with the loss of Marissa Neal to injury, dropping its win probability by another 1%. However, Auburn could still become the favorite if Florida scores 48.500 or lower on beam—just like last week when a similar score allowed Arkansas to pull off the upset in Fayetteville.

Oklahoma at LSU

Friday, Feb. 14 at 9 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 80.2% Oklahoma, 19.8% LSU

The marquee Valentine’s Day matchup brings No. 1 Oklahoma to Baton Rouge to take on No. 2 LSU. Despite not yet hitting the 198 mark, the Sooners are living up to their No. 1 ranking, with five all-arounders contributing to the majority of their 24 routines. If they stay on this trajectory, they could come close to or even surpass that elusive 198 on Friday. LSU, meanwhile, has been relying on its depth in Haleigh Bryant’s absence, but her return to vault last week gave the Tigers a significant boost. If Bryant competes in the all-around, LSU might leverage its home floor advantage to pull off an upset in what could be a preview of the SEC title showdown.

Notes about the predictions: At the start of the season, LSU had just a 6% chance of winning this matchup. However, the Tigers’ chances have steadily climbed each week, now reaching nearly 20%. Home floor advantage plays a key role, boosting LSU’s upset potential from 15% if the meet were on the road. A few scenarios could tip the scales in LSU’s favor: If Oklahoma scores below 49.200 on either bars or beam, LSU’s win chances jump to 50-60%. However, these would be season-low scores for the Sooners, with only a 4% chance of it happening on beam and less than 1% on bars.

Utah at Arizona State

Friday, Feb. 14 at 9 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 99.7% Utah, 0.3% Arizona State

Utah puts its undefeated conference streak on the line as the Red Rocks head to Tempe for a desert duel against the Sun Devils. The Red Rocks notched their second-highest team score of the season last weekend against Arizona, led by dynamic all-around performances from Grace McCallum and Makenna Smith. While Utah is favored to win comfortably, Arizona State can’t be counted out. The Sun Devils have a history of resilience and are coming off a season-high score last weekend. If the Red Rocks falter, Arizona State will need to be ready to capitalize on any mistakes.

Notes about the predictions: Utah enters this meet as the strong favorite, with 26% of our simulations predicting the Utes will win by a full point or more. Arizona State, however, hit a season-best last week, finally surpassing the 196 mark. While a win may be a long shot, the Sun Devils have a 68% chance of scoring 196-plus again in this meet.

Penn State at UCLA

Friday, Feb. 14 at 11 p.m. ET | BTN

Prediction: 97.4% UCLA, 2.6% Penn State

The Bruins are riding high after posting a season-high 197.950 on the road against Washington. Still undefeated in the Big Ten, UCLA will be looking to keep the momentum going and perhaps finally break the elusive 198 mark. Meanwhile, Penn State has struggled to live up to its preseason expectations. Injuries to key gymnasts like Ava Piedrahita and Amani Herring have limited the Nittany Lions’ scoring potential. While an upset over a powerhouse like UCLA may seem unlikely, a strong score is crucial with NQS approaching.

Notes about the predictions: UCLA has the upper hand in this matchup on all four events, with an 80% or higher chance of winning each. Beating UCLA on floor at Pauley Pavilion would be an impressive feat for Penn State and could boost its chance of winning to 16%. However, realistically, Penn State will need UCLA to falter for an opportunity to pull off the upset. If UCLA counts two or more falls, the Bruins’ chances of winning drop to just 35%.

HBCU Isla Classic

with Fisk, Greenville, and Wilberforce

Sunday, Feb. 16 at 3 p.m. ET | TBA

Prediction: 99.2% Fisk, 0.7% Greenville, 0.1% Wilberforce

Fisk is coming off its best meet of the season, highlighted by Morgan Price’s program-first 10.0 on bars and a beam record led by Liberty Mora’s 9.900. With this momentum, Fisk is set for another strong tri-meet. Greenville also hit a program-record 191.175, improving by five points with strong bars and beam performances, building confidence for the weekend. Wilberforce posted its second-highest score of the season, hovering around 177, and will aim to add depth and improve its totals moving forward. This is a historic meet, and the teams appear to be in their best form heading into it.

Notes about the predictions: Fisk is poised to claim its first win of the season in this matchup, with a projected victory margin of several points. The Bulldogs hold a strong advantage on every event, boasting over a 90% chance of winning vault, bars, and beam and an 80% chance on floor. Greenville, coming off a program-record 191.175 last week, is unlikely to replicate that high score but still has a 65% chance of posting its second-highest total of the season.

Upset Alert

GymQuarters Invitational

with Alabama, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri

Friday, Feb. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET | TBA

Prediction: 54.0% Missouri, 44.9% Alabama, 0.8% Iowa, 0.3% Illinois

Tucked within this quad meet is a high-stakes SEC showdown between Missouri and Alabama. Missouri has been steadily improving, consistently hitting in the low 197 range, and if the Tigers can continue this upward trend, they’ll be in prime position to take the victory. Alabama, on the other hand, has had an up-and-down season, but last week’s 197.075 indicates the Crimson Tide is heading in the right direction.

Meanwhile, on the Big Ten side, Illinois is coming off a season-high 196.675 and a big upset over Ohio State. Iowa has also secured conference wins over Nebraska and Rutgers. Both Illinois and Iowa will be looking to break into mid-to-high 196 territory, as it’s critical for them to start posting those scores to avoid the play-in round come postseason.

Notes about the predictions: Our predictions indicate that one of the two SEC teams will likely claim the victory in this meet, but it’s expected to be a tight contest, with one-third of simulations showing the margin within two-tenths or less. Missouri holds the edge going in, thanks to stronger scores on bars and floor. However, if Alabama can replicate its impressive 49.500 floor performance from last weekend, its chances jump to 65%, making it the favorite to win.

San Jose State at Boise State

Friday, Feb. 14 at 9 p.m. ET | Free live stream

Prediction: 84.6% Boise State, 15.4% San Jose State

Boise State is aiming to break into the 196s after coming close the past two weeks, buoyed by season highs on bars, beam, and floor. However, a season low on vault held the team total down, so landings will be key for the Broncos.

San Jose State, on the other hand, is looking to put together a complete meet after counting misses on bars and beam in the last two weeks. The Spartans have only surpassed 195 once this season and need solid scores for their NQS to stay in the regionals conversation. Getting Madison Kirsch back to form, particularly on beam and vault, would be a major boost.

Notes about the predictions: Boise State enters this matchup as the favorite, largely thanks to the strong performances of fifth-year Emily Lopez. If the Broncos choose to rest her this week, their win chances decrease by 10%. For San Jose State, breaking the 49 mark on bars would boost its chances to 28%. If the Spartans can also secure a top total on floor, their odds of winning the meet skyrocket to 95%.

Minnesota at Ohio State

Sunday, Feb. 16 at 2 p.m. ET | B1G+

Prediction: 91.3% Minnesota, 8.7% Ohio State

Missing Payton Harris from lineups has tested the Buckeyes depth this year, and Ohio State has felt the lower scoring potential most on bars and beam. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been comfortably putting all the pieces together. To defend home turf in Covelli, the Buckeyes need big routines from Tory Vetter to lead the way. 

Notes about the predictions: After week one, this matchup looked like it would be much closer, with Minnesota slightly favored at a 65% chance of winning. However, as Ohio State’s scores have dipped throughout the season, so have its chances of claiming victory. The loss of Payton Harris to injury has been a major setback for the Buckeyes, but if she returns to competition this weekend, their chances of winning increase to 18%. Ohio State has struggled on bars and beam, but if the Buckeyes can win both events, their win probability jumps to 86%.

Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver

Sunday, Feb. 16 at 4 p.m. ET | Paid live stream

Prediction: 76.9% Oregon State, 22.9% Denver, 0.1% Ball State, 0.1% Texas Woman’s

Four teams, four conferences, and four unique storylines to follow. Oregon State and Denver enter this quad meet as the favorites for the win. Each team has its strongest event in a different area by national ranking, making the competition important as rankings shift from average to NQS in the coming weeks. The event to watch is floor, where Oregon State boasts the nation’s 7th-ranked lineup, Ball State’s Zoe Middleton ranks in the top 25 individually, and Denver’s breakout sophomore Cecelia Cooley, along with Texas Woman’s freshman phenom Kyleigh Ghanbari, are poised to shine.

Notes about the predictions: Denver’s key to winning this meet lies in delivering a strong beam rotation. When Denver takes the beam title, its chances of winning the entire meet rise to 64%. However, most scenarios where this occurs also rely on Oregon State scoring below 49.200 on the event—something the Beavers haven’t done since week one.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week seven go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.

• Arkansas travels to Georgia after yet another top five win at home. The Razorbacks’ downing of Florida should give them confidence going into Stegeman Coliseum, where the GymDogs will look to continue building momentum after last week’s season high 197.200.
• New Hampshire went 49.400 on floor last weekend and has been quietly cruising on that event all season, as well as vault and beam. The Wildcats will have another opportunity to go toe to toe with EAGL rival Towson at Sunday’s quad meet at Yale, providing yet another look at the two conference title contenders.
• Brockport also had a quietly huge floor rotation last week and led all six teams at the halfway point of last weekend’s Empire State Collegiate Championship. The Golden Eagles will look to repeat that performance this week with a rematch against Ithaca.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the best you can, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 19-11)

• Oklahoma at LSU: LSU
• GymQuarters: Missouri
• San Jose State at Boise State: Boise State
• Minnesota at Ohio State: Ohio State
• Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver: Oregon State

Elizabeth (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 24-6)

• Oklahoma at LSU: Oklahoma
• GymQuarters: Missouri
• San Jose State at Boise State: Boise State
• Minnesota at Ohio State: Minnesota
• Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver: Oregon State

Emily M (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 23-7)

• Oklahoma at LSU: Oklahoma
• GymQuarters: Missouri
• San Jose State at Boise State: Boise State
• Minnesota at Ohio State: Minnesota
• Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver: Oregon State

Jenna (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 22-8)

• Oklahoma at LSU: LSU
• GymQuarters: Missouri
• San Jose State at Boise State: Boise State
• Minnesota at Ohio State: Minnesota
• Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver: Oregon State

Rebecca (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 23-7)

• Oklahoma at LSU: Oklahoma
• GymQuarters: Missouri
• San Jose State at Boise State: Boise State
• Minnesota at Ohio State: Minnesota
• Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver: Oregon State

Week 7 Guest: Daniel

• Oklahoma at LSU: Oklahoma
• GymQuarters: Missouri
• San Jose State at Boise State: Boise State
• Minnesota at Ohio State: Ohio State
• Ball State, Oregon State, and Texas Woman’s at Denver: Oregon State

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News