Happy March! Did you realize there were only three weeks left of the regular season, including conference championships? That’s right, and it’s time to start thinking about regionals qualification. As a reminder, postseason qualification is based on NQS, which is calculated by taking a team’s top six scores of the season, at least three of which must be on the road, dropping the highest score overall, and averaging the remaining five.
Each year in this series we take a look at each “bubble” team’s highest possible NQS after this coming weekend and discuss what they’ll need to do to finish in the top 36 and make regionals. This week we’ll stick only to team discussion, adding in potential individual qualifiers next week.
Let’s start with a regionals projection based on current standings, attempting to take geography into account.
| Norman | Denver | Pittsburgh | Los Angeles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Oklahoma | 2. Michigan | 3. Florida | 4. Utah |
| 8. Alabama | 7. California | 6. LSU | 5. UCLA |
| 9. Auburn | 10. Denver | 11. Oregon State | 12. Kentucky |
| 16. Ohio State | 15. Arizona State | 14. Missouri | 13. Michigan State |
| 17. Arkansas | 18. Georgia | 25. Maryland | 19. Southern Utah |
| 20. Iowa | 22. Minnesota | 27. Towson | 21. Stanford |
| 24. Illinois | 26. N.C. State | 31. Ball State | 23. Washington |
| 30. North Carolina | 29. Nebraska | 33. Penn State | 28. Arizona |
| 32. Western Michigan | 34. Boise State | 36. West Virginia | 35. BYU |
The geographic placement of teams ranked Nos. 17 to 36 is going to be extra complicated this year because of the very high number of teams that are located within 400 miles of Pittsburgh. There are actually six teams currently meeting this criteria, but with only five spots in the bracket available for them, we moved Western Michigan—the team farthest from Pittsburgh of those six—to a different regional. As reflected in this projection, the likelihood that we’ll continue to see teams ranked No. 28 or higher participating in the play-in round is very high in 2023. The other note about the regionals bracket this year is that BYU can only go to Norman or Los Angeles since the other two regionals have the potential for Sunday competition.
For the purposes of this article, we’re assuming every team currently ranked in the top 20 will make it to the postseason ranked at least No. 28, which is an important cutoff since play-in rounds should theoretically contain teams ranked No. 29 through No. 36. So we’ll be examining teams currently ranked No. 21 through No. 45 today. Bold scores can no longer be replaced in the NQS calculation while scores with a strikethrough indicate it is the team’s season high, meaning it’s currently being dropped. Scores with an asterisk indicate that they can be replaced this coming weekend. For teams that have a double meet weekend, we inputed their current season high into both meets to calculate their max NQS after this weekend, but it is technically possible for them to exceed this number by this time next week.
No. 21 Stanford
| Current NQS | 196.585 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.075, 196.725, 196.225* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.855 (17th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Stanford is in a good position to avoid the play-in round with two low-196 scores to drop and three opportunities to do so. A move into the seeded range is not possible this week but could be possible by regionals if the Cardinal can replicate its mid-197 from this past weekend.
No. 22 Minnesota
| Current NQS | 196.580 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.675, 196.325, 196.225* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.750 (18th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Minnesota has only broken into the 197-plus range once this season, with a 197.075. If it’s going to have any chance to rise up to the seeded positions, it’s going to need to exceed that number in every remaining meet.
No. 23 Washington
| Current NQS | 196.530 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.750, 196.550, 196.375 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.710 (18th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Washington is probably safe from falling down to the play-in round, but getting a couple more scores in the 197-plus range should be the goal to avoid any possibility of a first round appearance.
No. 24 Illinois
| Current NQS | 196.520 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.700, 196.600, 196.425 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.625 (19th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
The lowest Illinois can be ranked after this weekend is 26th, but the Illini shouldn’t get comfortable. All of the counting NQS scores are clustered close together, which means Illinois will be in prime position to get passed in the rankings in future weeks if the trend continues. The Illini will need to start exceeding 197.000 to feel truly secure in avoiding the play-in round.
No. 25 Maryland
| Current NQS | 196.395 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.65, 196.55, 196.425* |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.685 (19th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 2 |
There is a significant gap between Illinois and Maryland, but the Terrapins have five meets left (including two this weekend) so there is plenty of opportunity to make up that gap and more in the remainder of the regular season. Tomorrow’s road score at Towson is particularly important since it could replace the only sub-196 score currently counting toward its NQS.
No. 26 N.C. State
| Current NQS | 196.305 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.475, 196.275, 196.125 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.380 (26th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
N.C. State has very little spread in its NQS-counting scores and is guaranteed to be counting three scores in the mid-196 range. With its last home meet this weekend, there is no way for the Wolfpack to increase its ranking until next week, and it’s likely we’ll see a rankings drop in the meantime. However, a new season high, particularly 197-plus, would allow for more opportunity to increase its NQS in the coming weeks.
No. 27 Towson
| Current NQS | 196.265 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.450, 196.350, 196.025* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.545 (23rd) |
| Road meets remaining | 5 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Like Maryland, Towson has five meets left, including two this weekend. All five are on the road, meaning each of them will be able to replace the lowest score still counting toward NQS at that time. However, Towson doesn’t have as much spread in its scores as Maryland does, so the Tigers will be looking to raise their scores into the high-196 range in order to stay in the top 28.
No. 28 Arizona
| Current NQS | 196.105 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.475, 196.375, 195.700* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.325 (26th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
As illustrated in the regionals projection above, Arizona is the team most likely to be forced to compete in the play-in round despite being ranked in the top 28, according to the current standings. With two sub-196 scores to drop and four meets to do so, however, the Wildcats will have plenty of opportunity to rise in the rankings and escape the danger of the No. 28 ranking.
No. 29 Nebraska
| Current NQS | 196.090 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.325, 196.150, 195.800 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.410 (25th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Nebraska rose nine spots in the rankings after its meet on Monday and will have a chance to rise a further four more this weekend. Like Arizona, the Cornhuskers have two sub-196 scores still counting, but with scores steadily rising, it seems they are on the right trajectory as regionals approach.
No. 30 North Carolina
| Current NQS | 196.085 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.275, 195.975, 195.700 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.105 (28th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Like Illinois and N.C. State, North Carolina’s NQS scores have very little spread compared to most other teams. This could leave the Tar Heels vulnerable to being passed in the rankings; seven teams currently ranked below UNC could pass it this weekend, in fact. Unless it starts scoring in the mid-to-high 196 range, it could suddenly be on the outside looking in when it comes to the regionals field.
No. 31 Ball State
| Current NQS | 196.045 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.300, 196.100, 196.050 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.225 (28th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Similar to UNC, Ball State could be passed by up to seven other teams in the rankings this week, potentially resulting in being left out of the regionals projection entirely. In order to avoid that, a mid-196 score should be on the Cardinals’ wish list.
No. 32 Western Michigan
| Current NQS | 196.040 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.725, 195.925, 195.525 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.305 (26th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Western Michigan’s counting NQS scores include three mid-196 scores and three sub-196 scores, which leaves the Broncos in a fairly good position to replace the lower three in the coming weeks. As long as they can at least replace the 195.425 and 195.525 with 196-plus scores, they should be in good position to maintain their ranking in the regionals qualification range.
No. 33 Penn State
| Current NQS | 195.995 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.100, 195.875, 195.525 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.080 (31st) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Penn State’s home scores have been significantly higher than its road scores, which doesn’t bode well for the Nittany Lions with only one home meet left. They will have to figure out how to replicate that success on the road in order to stay in regionals contention.
No. 34 Boise State
| Current NQS | 195.980 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.500, 196.325, 195.700 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.225 (28th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Boise State has four scores over 196.000; can it make it six in the remaining three meets? It might be necessary for the Broncos to remain in the regionals field.
No. 35 BYU
| Current NQS | 195.945 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.450, 196.150, 195.475* |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.475 (25th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
BYU has two meets between now and Friday; scoring 196-plus in both of them would go a long way toward securing a regionals berth.
No. 36 West Virginia
| Current NQS | 195.880 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.575, 196.375, 195.200* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.165 (28th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 2 |
While currently the last team in the regionals field, West Virginia could be passed by San Jose State or George Washington this weekend. In order to avoid this, the Mountaineers will look to drop the 195.200 still counting toward its NQS and replace it with a 196-plus score.
No. 37 San Jose State
| Current NQS | 195.870 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.150, 195.800, 195.250* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.145 (28th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
San Jose State is the first team out of the regionals bracket at this point in time, but with a 195.250 still to drop and a season high of 196.625, the opportunity is there to move up in the rankings if the Spartans can capitalize.
No. 38 George Washington
| Current NQS | 195.855 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.400, 196.075, 195.550 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.090 (29th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
George Washington has a lower season high than San Jose State, but with four meets left as opposed to the Spartans’ three, there is plenty of opportunity to move into the regionals field with multiple mid-196 performances.
No. 39 Iowa State
| Current NQS | 195.620 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.875, 195.825, 195.575 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.820 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
There is a large dropoff in NQS between George Washington and Iowa State, meaning that the rest of the teams listed in this article have a lot of ground to make up if they hope to qualify to regionals. Iowa State only has one score higher than 196.000 this entire season, so if it wants to have any chance to reach the postseason it’s going to have to hit that mark in each of its remaining three meets.
No. 40 Kent State
| Current NQS | 195.610 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.925, 195.725, 195.025* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.790 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 1 |
| Home meets remaining | 2 |
It’s not impossible for Kent State to qualify to regionals, but with only one road meet left and no 196-plus scores all season, it feels less likely than for some other teams who are also outside the top 36. The Golden Flashes will need to increase their season high significantly and then remain at that pace for the rest of the season to have a chance.
No. 41 Rutgers
| Current NQS | 195.475 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.225, 195.150, 195.125* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.725 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Rutgers has proven that it’s capable of being a regionals-caliber team this season with its two mid-196 scores, but with both of those performances coming at home, it will need to replicate it in both remaining road meets to have a chance to actually qualify. Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights are already locked into counting a 195.225 toward their final NQS.
No. 42 Northern Illinois
| Current NQS | 195.450 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.500, 195.375, 195.350 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.625 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Similar to Kent State, Northern Illinois has not yet achieved a 196.000 this season, leaving the Huskies in a precarious position if they don’t start scoring significantly higher very soon.
No. 43 Pittsburgh
| Current NQS | 195.445 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.775, 195.275, 195.150 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.740 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Pitt’s season high is an impressive 196.550, but unfortunately that doesn’t get counted toward NQS and the remainder of the counting scores are all sub-196. With three meets left to replace three low-195s, it’s crunch time for the Panthers to qualify a team to their home regional.
No. 44 Central Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.405 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.075, 195.825, 195.600 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.835 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Central Michigan has a very low 194.100 to drop, but the Chippewas still have a ceiling of only 39th place this weekend. If they want to make regionals, they’re going to have to continue to perform at the 196-plus level for all of the remaining meets in the regular season.
No. T-45 UC Davis
| Current NQS | 195.245 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.300, 195.250, 194.050* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.785 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 3 |
| Home meets remaining | 0 |
Like CMU, UC Davis has exceeded 196.000 this season, but it is also still counting a low-194 score toward its NQS. However, its highest scores have all come at home, making it seem unlikely that the Aggies will be able to replace all its low road scores with 196-plus performances over the remaining weeks.
No. T-45 Utah State
| Current NQS | 195.245 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.800, 195.675, 195.425 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.795 (39th) |
| Road meets remaining | 2 |
| Home meets remaining | 1 |
Utah State has a chance to replace a 193.425 this weekend but will need to keep performing at the 196-plus pace to have any hope of being in the regionals conversation.
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Article by Jenna King
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