With two weeks left in the regular season, the postseason field is beginning to take shape. Michigan and George Washington finally reached enough scores to calculate an NQS while Michigan State officially ended its season, meaning every team capable of figuring into the regionals discussion is now ranked.
Regionals Projection: Teams
Let’s start with the teams not on the bubble. Here are the projected regionals placements if the current standings were to hold.
| Tuscaloosa | Athens | Morgantown | Salt Lake City |
| 1. Florida | 1. Oklahoma | 3. LSU | 4. Michigan |
| 8. Alabama | 7. Minnesota | 6. California | 5. Utah |
| 9. Arkansas | 10. Arizona State | 11. Denver | 12. BYU |
| 15. Auburn | 16. Georgia | 14. UCLA | 12. Kentucky |
Florida and BYU win their tiebreakers (over Oklahoma and Kentucky, respectively) by virtue of having the higher scores remaining once all scores counting toward NQS calculation are removed. In addition, Georgia gets swapped with Auburn so that there isn’t a host conflict with Alabama.
The following teams would then be distributed to the four regionals according to some combination of geographical and conference criteria that only makes sense to the committee who decides these things, with teams in the bottom two rows participating in the first round “play in”:
| 17. Southern Utah | 18. Boise State | 19. Iowa | 20. Utah State |
| 21. Missouri | 21. Illinois | 23. Iowa State | 24. Oregon State |
| 25. Ohio State | 26. Central Michigan | 27. N.C. State | 28. Maryland |
| 29. Western Michigan | 30. Penn State | 31. Towson | 32. Eastern Michigan |
| 33. Kent State | 34. Ball State | 35. Nebraska | 36. West Virginia |
Bubble Watch: Teams
This week we’ll assume that every team currently ranked No. 28 or higher is a lock to make regionals, so we’ll examine the scoring outlook and qualification scenarios for teams ranked No. 29 to No. 42. Scores in bold can no longer be dropped. Just like last week, we’ll be projecting their NQS if they match their season high this weekend.
No. 29 Western Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.769 |
| Highest two road scores | 196.05; 195.575 |
| Other counting scores | 196.025; 195.425 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 1 home |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.925 (27th) |
WMU dropped three ranking spots with its bye week, but it has the opportunity to reverse that with a road meet this weekend. However, it’s going to be difficult to avoid the play-in round unless the Broncos can drop both of its sub-196 scores over its remaining two meets.
No. 30 Penn State
| Current NQS | 195.763 |
| Highest two road scores | 196; 195.85 |
| Other counting scores | 195.925; 195.275 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.944 (27th) |
Penn State is already locked into counting one sub-196 score, but with two road scores it will have two opportunities to drop the 195.275 currently holding it back from avoiding a play-in round.
No. 31 Towson
| Current NQS | 195.756 |
| Highest two road scores | 196.15; 195.55 |
| Other counting scores | 196.15; 195.175 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 2 home |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.000 (27th) |
WMU, Penn State and Towson are clustered very closely in the current rankings, but Towson has the most opportunity to improve with a double header and the lowest score (195.175) to drop.
No. 32 Eastern Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.688 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.975; 195.15 |
| Other counting scores | 195.825; 195.8 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.894 (28th) |
EMU has two opportunities left to drop its lowest score of 195.15, which would solidify its regionals berth, but the remaining NQS-counting scores are clustered closely together, so it would be difficult to avoid the play-in round at this point.
No. 33 Kent State
| Current NQS | 195.675 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.65; 194.825 |
| Other counting scores | 196.375; 195.85 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.063 (27th) |
With a season high of 196.375 and two road meets left, Kent State has the opportunity to drop its two low road scores and move up in the rankings. But the away scores have been low all year, so it’s unlikely that the Golden Flashes will be able to put up the numbers required at this point. However, even dropping the 194.825 for a mid-195 would help prevent them from falling out of regionals qualification.
No. 34 Ball State
| Current NQS | 195.631 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.975; 195.725 |
| Other counting scores | 195.55; 195.275 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.806 (29th) |
With no scores over 196 this season, it’s unlikely the Cardinals will be able to increase their ranking enough to move out of the play-in round, but they can avoid dropping out of the regionals field entirely by scoring in the high 195s in their two remaining road meets.
No. 35 Nebraska
| Current NQS | 195.488 |
| Highest two road scores | 196.15; 195.35 |
| Other counting scores | 195.25; 195.2 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 1 home |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.725 (32nd) |
Last week we wrote that Nebraska’s chances at qualifying were slim given its narrow spread of scores, but the Cornhuskers bested their previous season high by eight tenths last week. However, that was only enough to keep them ranked No. 35 as other teams made moves around them, so they will need to keep up the higher scoring to remain in regionals qualification position.
No. 36 West Virginia
| Current NQS | 195.456 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.9; 195.35 |
| Other counting scores | 195.4; 195.175 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 2 home |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 195.775 (29th) |
Like Nebraska, West Virginia set a new season high last week but didn’t move up the rankings, so there’s more work to do if the Mountaineers want to qualify as a team to regionals. Taking advantage of the double-meet weekend to replace those low-195 scores would be a great place to start.
No. 37(T) New Hampshire
| Current NQS | 195.419 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.3; 194.9 |
| Other counting scores | 196.125; 195.35 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.725 (32nd) |
We have our third team in a row that set a new season high last week, and it did it by a lot. But it wasn’t enough to move UNH into the top 36. With two road meets left, the opportunity is there, but the season high came at home so it’ll be a tall task to reproduce that performance in both of the remaining meets.
No. 37(T) Arizona
| Current NQS | 195.419 |
| Highest two road scores | 196.075; 195.65 |
| Other counting scores | 195.075; 194.875 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 1 home |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.719 (32nd) |
Arizona, though tied with New Hampshire, seems more likely to improve on its NQS over the remaining weeks because its two highest scores this season have come on the road.
No. 39 North Carolina
| Current NQS | 195.338 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.6; 195.25 |
| Other counting scores | 195.3; 195.2 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 1 home |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.438 (37th) |
We wrote last week that then-No. 33 UNC needed to start setting some new season highs to stay in regionals qualifying position, but unfortunately that didn’t happen and the Tar Heels have fallen to No. 39. With the scores so bunched together, even matching their season high this weekend would keep them on the outside looking in.
No. 40 Rutgers
| Current NQS | 195.15 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.975; 195.225 |
| Other counting scores | 194.8; 194.6 |
| Meets remaining | 1 road; 1 home |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.494 (35th) |
Like Arizona, Rutgers’ best scores this season have come on the road, so the opportunity is there to replace those sub-195 scores still counting toward its NQS. However, the Scarlet Knights are already guaranteed to count a 195.225 in their final regular season ranking, so there is no room for error.
No. 41(T) Northern Illinois
| Current NQS | 195.044 |
| Highest two road scores | 195.05; 194.8 |
| Other counting scores | 195.5; 194.825 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.219 (40th) |
Unfortunately for NIU, it looks like the regionals door has been closed for this season. Even two 196-level scores in both of the Huskies’ remaining meets would push them only up to 34th in the current rankings, but other teams would likely pass them as well.
No. 41(T) Temple
| Current NQS | 195.044 |
| Highest two road scores | 194.85; 194.825 |
| Other counting scores | 195.4; 195.1 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 195.325 (40th) |
With three road meets left, including a double-meet weekend this week, Temple has slightly more opportunity to increase its NQS than its rankings twin NIU, but it feels unlikely with a season high of only 195.4; the Owls would need three scores of 196 or better.
Regionals Projection: Individuals
If regionals were to start tomorrow, the following gymnasts would qualify as all arounders:
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Hannah Joyner | Rutgers | 39.331 |
| Payton Murphy | Western Michigan | 39.306 |
| Tara Kofmehl | Northern Illinois | 39.206 |
| Cassidy Rushlow | Penn State | 39.169 |
| Angelica Labat | Illinois State | 39.150 |
| Lauren Bolen | Towson | 39.113 |
| Belle Huang | Rutgers | 39.106 |
| Sarah Moravansky | Western Michigan | 39.075 |
| Elizabeth Culton | North Carolina | 39.075 |
| Dahlia Solorzano-Caruso | SEMO | 39.038 |
| Rachel Decavitch | Kent State | 39.000 |
| Kylie Gorgenyi | New Hampshire | 38.919 |
On the outside looking in: Brianna Greenlow (UNC; 38.913), Marissa Nychyk (Ball State; 38.875), Isabelle Fox (Illinois State; 38.856), Daija Stevenson (Air Force; 38.850). The most likely of these to qualify is Nychyk, who has three scores of 39.0 or higher but is still counting a 38.3 with two opportunities to drop it. Also keep an eye on Washington’s Geneva Thompson, who has two scores over 39.2 but two low scores as well. Temple’s Ariana Castrence should join the group of qualifiers if she competes all around in one more meet; she currently does not have an NQS. Of the currently projected qualifiers, Decavitch is most in danger of falling out of qualifying position with a high of only 39.05 and no low scores to drop.
Projected Vault Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Anika Dujakovich | Nebraska | 9.875 |
| Camille Vitoff | Towson | 9.875 |
| Geneva Thompson | Washington | 9.863 |
| Courtney Mitchell | Lindenwood | 9.850 |
| Malia Hargrove | Arizona | 9.850 |
| Ariana Castrence | Temple | 9.844 |
| Kyndall Baze | Lindenwood | 9.844 |
| Aleah Leman | Lindenwood | 9.838 |
| Julianna Roland | Temple | 9.838 |
| Alissa Bonsall | Penn State | 9.838 |
| Jessica Castles | Arizona | 9.831 |
| Victoria Henry | Ball State | 9.831 |
| Daisy Woodring | Texas Woman’s | 9.825 |
| Kendall Whitman | George Washington | 9.825 |
| Emily Liszewski | Pittsburgh | 9.825 |
| Amara Cunningham | Washington | 9.825 |
On the outside looking in: Jenna Weitz (Towson; 9.819), Arden Hudson (Ball State; 9.819), Hallie Thompson (UNC; 9.819), Drew Aldridge (UNC; 9.813), Robyn Kelley (UNH; 9.813), Nikki Borkowski (Towson; 9.813). Weitz and Aldridge have both reached 9.875 this season and are the likeliest to move into qualifying position, while Kelley could move up if she drops the 9.75 that is currently counting toward her NQS. In addition, GW’s Deja Chambliss is very likely to move into qualification position once she achieves an NQS, as her season low is a 9.875. Of the projected qualifiers, Bonsall and Castles are most vulnerable to dropping out of contention with season highs of only 9.85.
Projected Bars Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Ava Verdeflor | Penn State | 9.900 |
| Alissa Bonsall | Penn State | 9.894 |
| Kynsee Roby | Nebraska | 9.881 |
| Katrina Coca | Pittsburgh | 9.881 |
| Allison Zuhlke | Towson | 9.875 |
| Natalie Hamp | Northern Illinois | 9.875 |
| Cortney Bezold | Eastern Michigan | 9.869 |
| Kinsey Davis | Nebraska | 9.869 |
| Grace Evans | Ball State | 9.863 |
| Katie Chamberlain | Pittsburgh | 9.863 |
| Jada Rondeau | Eastern Michigan | 9.863 |
| Jade Brown | Kent State | 9.844 |
| Geneva Thompson | Washington | 9.844 |
| Amy Stewart | Towson | 9.844 |
| Tess Zientek | Towson | 9.844 |
| Brookelyn Sears | Northern Illinois | 9.844 |
On the outside looking in: Alexandra Fochler (Bowling Green; 9.838), Elena Deets (Arizona; 9.838), Sofia Iribarren (Illinois State; 9.838), Camille Vitoff (Towson; 9.838), Megan Teter (Ball State; 9.831), Skylar Killough-Wilhelm (Washington; 9.831). Fochler is in a great position to move up, with a season high of 9.9 and a 9.775 to drop. She could pass Sears, Stewart, Zientek or Rondeau, who all have lower season highs than the other projected qualifiers. We were hoping LIU’s Mara Titarsolej could sneak into this field once she competed enough meets, but unfortunately she was injured this past weekend.
Projected Beam Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Kynsee Roby | Nebraska | 9.906 |
| Emerson Hurst | Towson | 9.900 |
| Caitlin Satler | Eastern Michigan | 9.894 |
| Jessica Castles | Arizona | 9.881 |
| Robyn Kelley | New Hampshire | 9.881 |
| Hailey Lui | New Hampshire | 9.875 |
| Kaitlyn Higgins | Nebraska | 9.869 |
| Kathryn Thaler | Nebraska | 9.869 |
| Jada Rondeau | Eastern Michigan | 9.869 |
| Abby Fletcher | Kent State | 9.856 |
| Charlotte Tishkoff | Western Michigan | 9.856 |
| Kiera Doherty-Herwitz | Rutgers | 9.850 |
| Arden Hudson | Ball State | 9.850 |
| Briona Carswell | Air Force | 9.844 |
| Hadyn Crossen | Eastern Michigan | 9.844 |
| Jenna Weitz | Towson | 9.844 |
On the outside looking in: Zoie Schroeder (NIU; 9.844), Maddie Johnston (Penn State; 9.844) and Anna Kaziska (SEMO; 9.844) all lost out on the tiebreaker with Carswell, Crossen and Weitz in this projection, but Schroeder is in the best position to move up with a 9.9 season high and a 9.8 still to drop. Natalie Cross (Penn State; 9.838) is also in a good position with a 9.775 to drop. Among the projected qualifiers, Tishkoff and Doherty-Herwitz are the most vulnerable to dropping out of contention with season highs of only 9.875.
Projected Floor Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Abby Fletcher | Kent State | 9.900 |
| Amara Cunningham | Washington | 9.900 |
| Melissa Astarita | Penn State | 9.894 |
| Kendra Combs | West Virginia | 9.888 |
| Cameron Topp | Illinois State | 9.881 |
| Robyn Kelley | New Hampshire | 9.881 |
| Faith Leary | Temple | 9.881 |
| Claudia Goyco | Ball State | 9.875 |
| Kylie Piringer | Nebraska | 9.875 |
| Anna Kaziska | SEMO | 9.869 |
| Jada Rondeau | Eastern Michigan | 9.869 |
| Kaitlyn Higgins | Nebraska | 9.869 |
| Jade Brown | Kent State | 9.863 |
| Malia Hargrove | Arizona | 9.863 |
| Amy Stewart | Towson | 9.863 |
| Julianna Roland | Temple | 9.863 |
On the outside looking in: Megan Teter (Ball State; 9.856), Isabel Goyco (TWU; 9.856), Brooke Donabedian (Temple; 9.856), Emily Holmes-Hackerd (WVU; 9.856). Goyco is in the best position to improve with a 9.8 still to drop, and she could pass Roland, whose season high is only a 9.875. Also watch out for UNH’s Hailey Lui who has scored two 9.9s and has a 9.775 to drop. Kent State’s Karlie Franz and Toshi Richard could also move into qualifying position after dropping a 9.775 and a 9.675, respectively. Finally, Temple’s Ariana Castrence only has three floor scores this year but the lowest is a 9.875, so one more score would add her into the mix.
Teams on the Cusp
While Central Michigan, N.C. State and Maryland are currently ranked in the top 28, all are in danger of slipping below that threshold in the coming weeks if teams ranked below them excel. Let’s take a look at the individuals from those teams who could qualify if that happens.
| Name | School | Event | Current NQS |
| Hannah Demers | Central Michigan | All Around | 39.263 |
| Hannah Demers | Central Michigan | Vault | 9.850 |
| Hannah Demers | Central Michigan | Bars | 9.875 |
| Hannah Demers | Central Michigan | Floor | 9.869 |
| Sierra Demarinis | Central Michigan | All Around | 39.144 |
| Sierra Demarinis | Central Michigan | Floor | 9.906 |
| Katie Kowalski | Central Michigan | Vault | 9.869 |
| Morgan Tong | Central Michigan | Beam | 9.863 |
| Taylor Pitchell | Central Michigan | Floor | 9.875 |
| Emily Shepard | N.C. State | All Around | 39.363 |
| Emily Shepard | N.C. State | Vault | 9.875 |
| Emily Shepard | N.C. State | Bars | 9.900 |
| Emily Shepard | N.C. State | Floor | 9.875 |
| Chloe Negrete | N.C. State | Vault | 9.856 |
| Chloe Negrete | N.C. State | Beam | 9.863 |
| Chloe Negrete | N.C. State | Floor | 9.894 |
| Katelyn Cox | N.C. State | Bars | 9.869 |
| Meredith Robinson | N.C. State | Bars | 9.863 |
| Audrey Barber | Maryland | All Around | 39.394 |
| Audrey Barber | Maryland | Vault | 9.850 |
| Audrey Barber | Maryland | Bars | 9.913 |
| Audrey Barber | Maryland | Floor | 9.863 |
| Alexsis Rubio | Maryland | Vault | 9.863 |
| Collea Burgess | Maryland | Vault | 9.844 |
| Collea Burgess | Maryland | Floor | 9.875 |
| Reese McClure | Maryland | Vault | 9.831 |
| Reese McClure | Maryland | Beam | 9.881 |
| Aleka Tsiknias | Maryland | Bars | 9.850 |
| Sabriyya Rouse | Maryland | Floor | 9.869 |
Article by Jenna King
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