Schools changing conferences occasionally isn’t unheard of in the NCAA, but the major conference realignment that has occurred, and likely will continue to occur over the next few seasons, has truly taken the NCAA by storm. Only two gymnastics conferences consist of the same teams as two seasons ago largely due to realignment along with the introduction of new teams and the loss of others. For a long time, the conferences in college gymnastics remained mostly consistent and regionally distributed. Now some conferences span the entire country and long-standing rivalries have been lost with new ones hoping to take their place. If realignment had never happened, how would conference championships shake out this year? We used the CGN meet predictor to simulate “old” conference championships using this season’s scores. The simulator was run 10,000 times to calculate an average predicted score and win percentage.
Please note, the NCGA-East and the WIAC are not included in this analysis because their respective conference championships have already concluded. Scores from the final week of regular season competition also weren’t included.
Big 12
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Oklahoma | 197.976 | 99.69% |
| Denver | 196.802 | 0.31% |
| Iowa State | 195.459 | 0% |
| West Virginia | 194.989 | 0% |
This should come as no surprise, but if the Big 12 remained as it was prior to realignment, the Sooners would’ve easily taken the title. Denver has sometimes been a worthy challenger to the Sooners in years past, even coming away with the title in 2021. However, it has been a rebuilding year for the Pioneers, so they would need a lot of help from the Sooners to sneak the win. The Big 12 is one of the undeniable winners of realignment. Despite losing the top team in the country to the SEC, it gained several teams that should provide a far more competitive and exciting competition than a landslide Sooner victory.
Big Ten
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Michigan State | 197.064 | 58.6% |
| Minnesota | 196.896 | 26.18% |
| Michigan | 196.674 | 12.51% |
| Ohio State | 196.145 | 1.21% |
| Penn State | 196.068 | 0.36% |
| Nebraska | 196.019 | 0.29% |
| Maryland | 195.968 | 0.62% |
| Iowa | 195.854 | 0.2% |
| Illinois | 195.513 | 0.03% |
| Rutgers | 195.384 | 0% |
Michigan State won its first Big Ten title last season and would’ve been predicted to repeat this season prior to the inclusion of Washington and UCLA in the conference. The predicted scores between the top three teams are less than half a point apart, so it wouldn’t be an easy task, but it has defeated both teams this season, so the odds would certainly be in its favor. Unfortunately for the Spartans, they will have an additional challenger to contend with this season in UCLA who has been crowned the regular season conference champions already.
EAGL
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| North Carolina | 195.932 | 49.43% |
| N.C. State | 195.883 | 35.18% |
| Pittsburgh | 195.184 | 5.15% |
| Towson | 195.179 | 6.21% |
| George Washington | 195.091 | 3.92% |
| New Hampshire | 194.204 | 0.04% |
| Temple | 194.127 | 0.07% |
| LIU | 191.800 | 0% |
This has been a good year for the Tar Heels and could’ve been made even better by winning their first conference title in well over a decade over in-state rival N.C. State. With only a half-tenth predicted to be the difference between the top two finishers, this certainly would’ve shaped up to be a nail-biter. Luckily for us, that rivalry remains intact in the ACC, but both teams will face far stiffer competition from Stanford and Cal, making North Carolina’s long-awaited conference victory far less likely. However, Towson and George Washington remain in the EAGL and will certainly keep the competitive spirit alive with less than a tenth separating them and each having won the conference title at least once in the last three years.
GEC
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Penn | 194.867 | 77.19% |
| Yale | 194.028 | 15.55% |
| Brown | 193.442 | 6.76% |
| Bridgeport | 192.694 | 0.13% |
| Cornell | 192.690 | 0.21% |
| William & Mary | 192.549 | 0.13% |
| West Chester | 191.722 | 0.03% |
| SCSU | 190.826 | 0% |
The GEC is one of only two conferences to be unaffected by realignment or the discontinuation of programs. Penn has been excellent this year and is a heavy favorite to win the title this season. It is the only team that has ever won the conference title since the transition to the GEC from the ECAC in 2022. With only one week remaining of the regular season it would take a very impactful injury to bring down Penn’s likelihood of coming away with a four-peat.
MAC
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Ball State | 195.376 | 31.77% |
| Central Michigan | 195.307 | 31.57% |
| Western Michigan | 195.054 | 20.42% |
| Kent State | 194.996 | 13.54% |
| Eastern Michigan | 194.444 | 2.58% |
| Northern Illinois | 193.818 | 0.09% |
| Bowling Green | 193.126 | 0.03% |
The MAC is another team that has not been affected by realignment. With only a week left in the regular season, this should be a pretty accurate predictor of what to expect at the actual conference championship. The MAC is a conference that has historically not had one dominant team. Instead the title has been held by many teams over the years and rarely ever for more than two seasons in a row. This analysis demonstrates that dynamic perfectly, with Ball State and CMU predicted to have almost equal odds of taking the title with reigning champs WMU and Kent State still very much in the conversation. The MAC championships are a behemoth of a meet, but if it is as exciting as this analysis is predicting, it will definitely be one to watch.
MIC
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Illinois State | 195.175 | 79.07% |
| TWU | 194.374 | 19.96% |
| SEMO | 192.837 | 0.97% |
| Centenary | 186.569 | 0% |
Although unaffected by conference realignment, the MIC lost perennial conference title favorite, Lindenwood, due to the team being cut at the end of the 2024 season. Having won at least a share of seven of the last ten MIC titles, Lindenwood was a dynasty program in its conference. Illinois State is having a fantastic year and is favored to win it all this year without having to contend with the Lions. TWU is a possible threat, as both teams have scored into the mid-196s this season. With only one more weekend of regular season competition to go, this prediction should be a good indicator of what to expect from the actual conference championship.
MPSF
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| San Jose State | 195.182 | 60.99% |
| UC Davis | 194.631 | 20.45% |
| Air Force | 194.434 | 9.53% |
| Sac State | 194.431 | 9.03% |
| Alaska | 191.559 | 0% |
Despite the fact that San Jose State has underperformed a bit this season in comparison to the last few seasons, they still would’ve come into the MPSF championships as the heavy favorite. Unfortunately for the Spartans, they have moved to a more competitive conference and will have a much tougher journey earning a conference title this season. UC Davis’ high score this season is actually significantly higher than San Jose State’s, so it certainly would’ve had a chance to upset in this hypothetical scenario, but in reality they now must contend with a much stronger Southern Utah.
MRGC
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Southern Utah | 195.957 | 43.33% |
| BYU | 195.864 | 30.36% |
| Boise State | 195.716 | 21.14% |
| Utah State | 195.393 | 5.17% |
Arguably, one of the most underrated losses related to conference realignment is the dissolution of the MRGC. Oftentimes, the conference title was hotly contested with all four teams having a fair shot. In fact, each team took home the title once in the last four years of the conference’s existence. This season’s prediction is reminiscent of those trends with the top three teams all predicted to finish within a quarter-tenth of each other and only about a half-tenth separating first place and last.
PAC-12
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| Utah | 197.469 | 43.84% |
| Cal | 197.339 | 25.64% |
| UCLA | 197.324 | 26.64% |
| Oregon State | 196.913 | 2.92% |
| Stanford | 196.807 | 0.96% |
| Arizona | 196.079 | 0% |
| Arizona State | 195.997 | 0% |
| Washington | 195.472 | 0% |
The PAC-12 was another casualty of realignment, although it is expected to be revived over the next few seasons as teams are added to the conference in an attempt to survive. This would’ve been an extremely exciting conference championship with Utah, Cal, or UCLA all strong contenders to take the title and Oregon State and Stanford not completely out of the question. Of the top three teams, each is now aligned with a different conference, so look out for these teams to upset the status quo in their respective new conferences and maybe even come away with the title in their inaugural seasons. I guess Oregon State will just win this one by default this year?
SEC
| Team | Average Score | Win Percentage |
| LSU | 197.662 | 48.33% |
| Florida | 197.562 | 40.44% |
| Kentucky | 197.142 | 2.78% |
| Missouri | 197.122 | 2.85% |
| Alabama | 197.112 | 3.91% |
| Georgia | 196.983 | 1.27% |
| Arkansas | 196.778 | 0.23% |
| Auburn | 196.743 | 0.19% |
Pre-realignment the SEC was undoubtedly the strongest conference in the NCAA. No other conference has every team predicted to score at least a high 196. Add Oklahoma to the mix and the conference just becomes more dominant. LSU and Florida are neck and neck in this analysis and each have taken the title in the last two years, but they will both need to have their best meets in order to contend with Oklahoma. Of note, with the inclusion of Oklahoma in the SEC the bottom-ranked team will miss out on conference championships altogether. Despite the fact that Arkansas manages to sneak into seventh over Auburn in this prediction, they would actually miss out on this season’s competition entirely as the rankings currently stand.
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Article by Mariah Dawson and Claire Harmon
