Arkansas' Frankie Price competes on the floor exercise at the 2023 NCAA Women's Gymnastics regionals

SEC Championship Qualification Bubble Watch: March 14

It’s the final week for SEC teams to qualify to the conference championship meet, and with each team having exactly one scoring opportunity this weekend, the criteria is fairly simple to calculate. Let’s get right into it.

In the tables below, bold scores are locked into being counted in the March 17 NQS, strikethrough is used to indicate the season high currently being dropped from the NQS calculation, and an asterisk indicates the score that can be replaced this coming weekend. Rankings indicated are only among SEC teams, not the national rankings.

No. 1 Oklahoma

Current NQS197.965
Highest three road scores198.050, 197.950, 197.925
Other NQS scores198.200, 198.075, 197.825*
NQS with season high this weekend198.040
Highest possible ranking1
Lowest possible ranking2
Meets remaining1 road

Oklahoma has had its spot at SECs locked up for quite some time, but the top overall seed is not assured. In fact, Oklahoma is at the mercy of LSU and cannot even secure the top seed by hitting a specific score.

No. 2 LSU

Current NQS197.825
Highest three road scores198.125, 197.650, 197.300*
Other NQS scores198.575, 198.050, 198.000
NQS with season high this weekend198.080
Highest possible ranking1
Lowest possible ranking3
Meets remaining1 road

Thanks to its monstrous 198.575 last weekend—the highest score in the country this season by several tenths—LSU now controls its own destiny and can secure the top overall seed at the SEC championship by scoring at least a 198.400 tonight. A 197.500 would also secure the No. 2 seed against a surging Florida team. In between those numbers, a 198.025 would give LSU a shot at passing Oklahoma, depending on what the Sooners do tonight.

No. 3 Florida

Current NQS197.760
Highest three road scores198.025, 197.575, 197.450
Other NQS scores198.125, 198.125, 197.625*
NQS with season high this weekend197.860
Highest possible ranking2
Lowest possible ranking3
Meets remaining1 home

Florida has secured its spot in the SEC evening session and could give itself a chance of passing LSU with a 197.975 tonight.

No. 4 Missouri

Current NQS197.345
Highest three road scores197.725, 197.200, 197.175*
Other NQS scores198.100, 197.425, 197.200
NQS with season high this weekend197.530
Highest possible ranking4
Lowest possible ranking5
Meets remaining1 road

Missouri is the lowest-ranked team that has locked up SEC championship qualification, but the evening session is not yet secured. The Tigers can do so by scoring a 197.250 tonight, which would prevent Kentucky from being able to pass them.

No. 5 Georgia

Current NQS197.135
Highest three road scores197.350, 197.200, 197.175
Other NQS scores197.200, 197.125, 196.975*
NQS with season high this weekend197.210
Highest possible ranking5
Lowest possible ranking9
Meets remaining1 home

Georgia is not yet locked into SEC qualification but can do so by scoring a 197.100 tonight against Oklahoma, a feat it has achieved in its last two home performances. Even if the GymDogs don’t reach that number, qualification is still likely, as each team ranked below them would need to score high enough to move past not to qualify. Our meet predictors put Georgia’s qualification chances at 99.9%.

No. 6 Kentucky

Current NQS197.130
Highest three road scores197.225, 197.150, 196.800*
Other NQS scores197.925, 197.300, 197.175
NQS with season high this weekend197.355
Highest possible ranking4
Lowest possible ranking9
Meets remaining1 road

Kentucky has a high ceiling this week thanks to its much improved season high from last week and could have a chance to pass Missouri for the No. 4 seed with at least a 197.900 tonight at Florida. 196.950 is the number to guarantee SEC championship qualification. As with Georgia, if the Wildcats don’t reach that number, their qualification chances are still high, and our meet predictor gives them a 99.9% chance of qualifying.

No. 7 Alabama

Current NQS197.085
Highest three road scores197.650, 196.875, 196.675*
Other NQS scores197.450, 197.350, 197.075
NQS with season high this weekend197.280
Highest possible ranking5
Lowest possible ranking9
Meets remaining1 road

Alabama has done a good job of moving up the SEC standings after being in the last position two weeks ago, and our meet predictor gives the Crimson Tide a 99.4% chance of qualification at this point. The number to aim for tomorrow at Michigan is 197.050, which would secure at least the No. 8 spot no matter what else happens, but there’s a good chance it won’t even matter by then since every other SEC team competes tonight.

No. 8 Auburn

Current NQS197.040
Highest three road scores197.750, 197.150, 196.825
Other NQS scores197.300, 197.025, 196.900*
NQS with season high this weekend197.210
Highest possible ranking5
Lowest possible ranking9
Meets remaining1 home

According to our meet predictor, Auburn and Arkansas are the two teams most likely to miss qualification, with Auburn given a 70.2% chance of qualifying. The Tigers can guarantee qualification by scoring at least 197.500 at home against LSU tonight; if they do not reach that score, it’ll depend on how Arkansas performs.

No. 9 Arkansas

Current NQS197.010
Highest three road scores197.725, 197.050, 196.400
Other NQS scores197.425, 197.175, 197.000*
NQS with season high this weekend197.155
Highest possible ranking5
Lowest possible ranking9
Meets remaining1 home

Arkansas put up a season-high 197.725 on the road last week, giving itself more breathing room for SEC qualification, but it still does not control its own destiny. The Razorbacks will have to score as high as possible tonight and then hope other teams in contention falter. They need to score at least 197.175 to have any chance at qualification, as that would give them a chance to pass Auburn in the current rankings. A 197.650 would give them a chance of passing all of the other bubble teams. Overall, our meet predictor gives Arkansas a 30.4% chance of qualifying.

READ THIS NEXT: Bubble Watch: March 12


Article by Jenna King and Claire Harmon

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