The Mount: Week 3 Previews and Predictions

Week three of the NCAA gymnastics season is set to bring some major excitement, as powerhouse conferences like the SEC and Big Ten kick off their dual meet matchups. Headlining the week is a much-anticipated showdown between LSU and Florida, two SEC giants with championship aspirations. In the Big Ten, rivals Michigan and Michigan State will face off in a thrilling in-state battle that’s sure to bring the intensity.

The Wasatch Classic adds another layer of intrigue, as top teams from across the country converge in Utah for a quad meet with plenty of potential for upsets and standout performances. Meanwhile, the annual Best of Utah meet will showcase the state’s top programs in a clash of local pride and national relevance. With fierce competition heating up, week three is bound to be a pivotal moment in the season.

Must-Watch Meets

Michigan at Michigan State

Friday, Jan. 17 at 7 p.m. ET | B1G+

Prediction: 97.4% Michigan State, 2.6% Michigan

The Big Ten’s premier in-state rivalry features a surging Michigan State team and a Michigan squad aiming to rebound after two disappointing performances. Last week, Michigan State nearly upset Florida, falling short by just a quarter of a tenth. It comes into this meet as the favorite, potentially by a significant margin. Michigan, traditionally dominant in this matchup, now finds itself the underdog. The Wolverines have yet to surpass the 196 mark this season and are focusing on cleaner routines across all events. Head coach Bev Plocki may experiment with her lineups as she figures out which freshmen can step up on key events while Michigan State will rely on its seasoned veterans, including Nikki Smith and Sage Kellerman, to lead the charge.

Notes about the predictions: Before the season, Michigan had a 13% chance of winning this meet, but two consecutive low-scoring meets have dropped its odds to under 3%. For Michigan to pull off an upset, it’ll need to capitalize on mistakes from Michigan State. If Michigan State counts a fall, Michigan’s win chances rise to 25%. A second fall could tip the scales in Michigan’s favor, but this scenario played out in just two of 10,000 simulations.

Florida at LSU

Friday, Jan. 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 76.8% Florida, 23.2% LSU

In one of the most intense conference rivalries, Florida faces off against LSU in Baton Rouge. The defending national champion Tigers are coming off a 197.650 at the Collegiate Quad, where they placed second to Oklahoma. Aleah Finnegan and Kailin Chio have been standout performers so far, but a major concern remains in Haleigh Bryant’s injury status. Bryant made her season debut on beam last week, scoring a 9.750, but her availability for other events remains uncertain. She did warm up floor, so we could see her back there this week.

Meanwhile, Florida is fresh off a 196.675 performance, narrowly edging Michigan State in Gainesville. The Gators had to shake off early season jitters, with falls on both bars and floor. However, they’ve added promising high-scoring potential to their lineups, particularly with Ly Bui, Riley McCusker, Selena Harris, and Skye Blakely. If Florida performs up to its potential, it could very well take down LSU in the Maravich Center.

Notes about the predictions: Despite Florida’s shaky start last week, the Gators still have a solid chance to secure a win at LSU, especially with uncertainty surrounding Bryant’s full participation. A fully healthy Bryant boosts LSU’s win probability to 36%. However, the outcome of this meet largely depends on whether Florida’s struggles on floor were an anomaly or a trend. If Florida goes sub-49 there again, LSU’s chances of winning skyrocket to 82%.

Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas

Monday, Jan. 20 at 3 p.m. ET | SECN+

Prediction: 67.7% Arkansas, 32.2% Denver, 0.1% Texas Woman’s

Fresh off its opening week appearance at the Collegiate Quad, Arkansas returns home to face Denver and Texas Woman’s in its 2025 home opener. After a challenging outing in Oklahoma City, the Razorbacks will look to regain momentum in a familiar setting. However, this will be the second meet of a double header, and fatigue could play a significant role in the team’s performance. Freshman standout Joscelyn Roberson will make her highly anticipated home debut under the bright lights of Bud Walton Arena. Denver, led by fifth-year Rylie Mundell, bounced back from a close call against Michigan to win its week two home quad. Texas Woman’s is coming off a historic home opener, where it set an attendance record and saw Kaitlyn Hoiland perform the program’s first Yurchenko one and a half in competition.

Notes about the predictions: Both Denver and Arkansas struggled on beam in their season openers, making that event the critical one to watch in this meet. The team that wins beam has an 80% chance of winning the meet, according to our simulations. We expect a tightly contested competition, with 25% of our simulations projecting a winning margin of two tenths or less.

Best of Utah

BYU, Southern Utah, Utah, and Utah State

Monday, Jan. 20 at 8 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 99.7% Utah, Southern Utah 0.1%, BYU 0.1%, Utah State 0.1%

Rounding out the Monday slate is the annual Best of Utah quad meet. Utah, coming off a less-than-satisfactory performance in Oklahoma City, will likely use this double-meet weekend to experiment with additional routine options and make lineup adjustments. This marks the first matchup between BYU and Utah since Utah joined the Big 12, adding extra intrigue with potential conference championship implications later in the season. Meanwhile, Utah State and Southern Utah have had quietly strong starts to their seasons, making the battle for placement after Utah less predictable. While Utah is heavily favored to win, the competition for the remaining spots is wide open, making this meet a must-watch event.

Notes about the predictions: Utah is the clear favorite to win the Best of Utah meet, but the race for second place is much tighter. BYU holds a 52% chance of taking second, Southern Utah follows closely with 44%, and Utah State trails with 4%. If any of these teams outscore the others on both bars and beam, their odds of winning the meet overall jump to over 80%.

Upset Alert

N.C. State at Stanford

Friday, Jan. 17 at 5 p.m. ET | ACCNx

Prediction: 97.3% Stanford, 2.7% N.C. State

Heading into this season, this new ACC matchup between N.C. State and Stanford seemed like it had the potential to spark a rivalry, given their similar recent postseason success and comparable regular season rankings. While it may not yet be a full-fledged rivalry, it’s shaping up to be a strong matchup with the potential for an exciting competition. N.C. State has had one more meet than the Cardinal, but like Stanford, it is still experimenting with lineup combinations. Last week, N.C. State’s floor lineup showed promise in the back half, but lower scores from early routines held the team back. Stanford, on the other hand, counted a fall on beam, but it’s the vault rotation where the Cardinal will look for the most improvement. Expect Stanford to potentially introduce more freshmen into the lineup this week. However, if it has another shaky performance, it could open the door for N.C. State to seize the win in this ACC dual meet.

Notes about the predictions: N.C. State will likely need some mistakes from Stanford to take the victory. If Stanford counts two falls, N.C. State’s chances of winning jump to 57%, though there’s only a 2% likelihood of that happening. Without errors from Stanford, N.C. State will need to post strong scores on both bars and beam to have a realistic shot at the win.

Wasatch Classic

Arizona State, Boise State, Iowa State, and San Jose State

Monday, Jan. 20 at 3 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Prediction: 45.5% Arizona State, 26.3% Boise State, 19.2% Iowa State, San Jose State 9.0%

With Arizona State’s star Hannah Scharf having used up her eligibility last year, the Sun Devils are now led by a trio of graduate students, who are guiding the team through its first year in the Big 12. Among these leaders is Jada Mangahas, but her status remains uncertain after being absent from last week’s meet. Her continued absence could open the door for any of hte remaining teams to pull off an upset. While Arizona State is the favorite, its 194.750 from week two is within reach for all three of its competitors. Iowa State, under second-year head coach Ashley Miles Greig, made significant strides in 2024 and is poised for further growth in 2025. Meanwhile, San Jose State has an impactful freshman in Madison Gustitius, whose immediate contributions to the Spartan lineups could be the difference that pushes the Spartans to victory. With each team capable of taking control, the meet is wide open.

Notes about the predictions: Arizona State is favored to win, but if Mangahas remains out of the lineup—following her absence in week one and the preseason intrasquad—the competition tightens significantly. Without her, Arizona State and Boise State are nearly even, each with a 32% chance of winning. Each team excels in different events, making this an exciting meet to watch across all four rotations; Boise State is strongest on vault, Iowa State on bars, Arizona State on beam, and San Jose State on floor. This variety could make the outcome any team’s game!

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week three go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.

• Oklahoma will compete in its first SEC dual meet this weekend as it welcome Missouri on Friday night. It will be a battle of phenomenal freshman classes; look for Oklahoma standout Lily Pederson to challenge for the all-around title. 
• Carrying on the first meet in their conference trend this week, UCLA and Washington will do the same in their first Big Ten dual meets at Maryland and Rutgers, respectfully. It will be interesting to see how long travel days help or hinder these teams in their competitions.
• We are finally winding down with random invitational meets, but this weekend still brings us the Windy City Invitational in Chicago, featuring Fisk, Illinois State, Wilberforce, and UW-Stout. Fisk and Wilberforce will meet again after last week’s MLK Invitational. 

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the best you can, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 2-3; Overall: 6-4)

• Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State
• Florida at LSU: LSU
• Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas: Denver
• N.C. State at Stanford: Stanford
• Wasatch Classic: Arizona State

Elizabeth (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 8-2)

• Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State
• Florida at LSU: LSU
• Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas: Arkansas
• N.C. State at Stanford: Stanford
• Wasatch Classic: Arizona State

Emily M (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 6-4)

• Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State
• Florida at LSU: LSU
• Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas: Arkansas
• N.C. State at Stanford: Stanford
• Wasatch Classic: Arizona State

Jenna (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 8-2)

• Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State
• Florida at LSU: Florida
• Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas: Arkansas
• N.C. State at Stanford: Stanford
• Wasatch Classic: Arizona State

Rebecca (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 7-3)

• Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State
• Florida at LSU: LSU
• Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas: Arkansas
• N.C. State at Stanford: Stanford
• Wasatch Classic: Boise State

Week 3 Guest: Katherine

• Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State
• Florida at LSU: LSU
• Denver and Texas Woman’s at Arkansas: Arkansas
• N.C. State at Stanford: Stanford
• Wasatch Classic: Arizona State

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News