By this time in the season, regionals is looming very large in our collective imagination. It’s also time for the part of the season where coaches decided to have a little fun with the schedule after finishing up the conference slate. Here’s what I’m watching, anticipating, and worrying about as we close out the regular season.
Question: Is Cal prepared to park the bus?
You don’t need me to tell you that Cal has never been better. Duh. An astounding 198.550 this weekend, the Golden Bears’ third consecutive 198-plus, doesn’t even feel terribly surprising at this point. They’re just great. The strategy of coping with a weak event by essentially never making a mistake anywhere else is audacious but just keeps working.
It’s approaching gut check time for this team, though. This weekend is another great opportunity to take back the No. 2 ranking from LSU with a double-meet weekend. (Since Cal has been so great on the road this season, it really doesn’t matter that it’s a home double.) Strolling to a Pac-12 title should be an expectation, and regionals is just about not getting spooked.
They’ll have to get used to the expectations for them evolving, though. Among fans, the idea that Cal could beat Oklahoma was mostly a joke or at best wishful thinking until the last few weeks. Putting up a stronger score than the Sooners this weekend added an element of reality.
I don’t really have analysis on whether they’re ready mentally to march through postseason, throw a mid-198 out in the team final, and dare Oklahoma to equal it. I’m certainly not saying they can’t. Most of the other contenders have at least equally obvious vulnerabilities or risk factors. But still, this is a team that’s literally never finished higher than No. 7 in the country. It’s just something to watch. I’d really like to see them dig their heels in and insist on the No. 2 ranking for regionals. I don’t really think the seed matters; their ceiling is high enough that they control their own destiny in any regional final. I’m just looking for evidence that as the stakes get higher, they’ll keep their focus.
Bonus Questions:
What does the future hold for USAG nationals? The championship recently dropped off Yale’s and Brown’s schedules for this season. It’s the latest in a series of casualties that began with Penn electing not to compete starting in 2019, followed by UIC and Seattle Pacific being cut, followed by SEMO becoming ineligible due to scholarship count, and Lindenwood now also being cut. Fisk and Talladega have joined the fray on the individual side, but our best information is still that they are ineligible for the team competition due to being NAIA rather than NCAA schools. The team count for the meet was dropped from eight to six this year. How different will this meet look in the coming years? Is there a possibility it won’t continue to occur? I don’t have a crystal ball, but momentum seems to be heading in the wrong direction.
What do we make of that Stanford score? Stanford has been very consistent in the mid-to-high 196s since the start of February. Scoring was definitely a factor in its breakout 197.975 at home, but how much of that can the Cardinal do in a neutral environment? How much upside does the return of Anna Roberts add, realistically? I’m not sure how to assess what kind of threat this team can pose as postseason looms.
Comment: Kent State is for real
Recognition of the season Kent State is putting together has been slow to come, and that’s partially down to how it began. The 197.750 in Tennessee, sandwiched by two scores in the 194s, doesn’t lend itself to credibility.
The Golden Flashes have been building steadily since then, though, launching them up the rankings with a strong double meet weekend last week and making even more headway with an impressive road 196.950 this weekend to land at No. 24 in the week 10 rankings. They’ve built on their hereditary strength on floor and fought for consistency on bars with extraordinary results. This perpetual bubble team, with just one regionals appearance in the last five seasons, might even bypass the play-in.
The Flashes have been great in the past, so this isn’t a total revelation. Remember their upset of then-No. 4 Stanford at regionals to qualify for nationals in 2011? (Maybe not. If you were in preschool that year, you can go ahead and ignore me.)
Bonus Comments:
I said the Maryland doubles were powerful, didn’t I? The Terps are another team who pulled themselves out of the danger zone in the last two weekends, and strategic scheduling is a big part of how they did it.
At this point, updating the Penn record book must be a full-time job. The records just keep recording.
Concern: Can the NCGA really not manage live scores for arguably the biggest weekend of its season?
NCGA regionals is awesome. It’s so exciting and something wild always happens. This year the last qualifying spots in both conferences were decided by under a tenth! You should definitely be watching these meets because they rock.
It’s a pity that this is still the best we can do for scores.
Note that with the addition of Utica, this meet now has seven rotations rather than six, so there’s a gap of at LEAST an hour between the last score update and the results becoming available. We discovered the (unofficial) qualifiers by waiting around to watch the awards stream…
Honestly. I’m totally sympathetic to the financial barriers that Division III teams face, but they seem to manage just fine for regular season. We also know that existing live score options are perfectly able to manage meets with large number of teams. I don’t understand exactly what the hold-up is in getting some live results, but the lack makes these meets meaningfully less accessible and enjoyable, which is a bummer.
Bonus Concerns:
There is another big multi-team neutral site meet in Tennessee this weekend. A very real and alarming occurrence. At least there is (supposed to be) video this time.
The bubble collapsing on us bums me out. I love scenarios, and this year we just don’t have a lot of them. Sad.
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Article by Rebecca Scally
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