With only two weeks left of competition before the regionals bracket is released, the postseason field is beginning to take shape. Who has likely secured their position and who has work left to do? We’re breaking down every bubble team’s qualification scenario below.
Regionals Projections: Teams
Here are the projected regionals placements if the current standings were to hold, attempting to take geography and conference alignment into account.
| Ann Arbor | Fayetteville | Berkeley | Gainesville |
| 1. Oklahoma | 2. LSU | 3. Cal | 4. Florida |
| 8. Michigan State | 7. Alabama | 6. Kentucky | 5. Utah |
| 10. Michigan* | 12. Arkansas* | 9. Denver* | 11. UCLA* |
| 16. Minnesota | 15. Ohio State | 14. Auburn | 13. Missouri |
| 18. N.C. State | 20. Arizona State | 17. Oregon State | 19. Georgia |
| 22. Penn State | 21. Arizona | 25. Stanford | 23. Maryland |
| 24. Kent State | 27. Washington | 26. Boise State | 27. Clemson |
| 30. Illinois | 29. Nebraska | 32. San Jose State | 30. Towson |
| 35. Ball State | 34. BYU | 33. Southern Utah | 36. Iowa State |
Usually the placement of the top 16 teams in the bracket is straightforward, but this week was more complicated with the hosting conflict between No. 4 Florida and No. 12 Arkansas. The simplest solution would be to switch Arkansas with No. 9 Denver, but precedence from 2019 tells us that the committee attempts to avoid moving a team more than two ranking positions wherever possible. To account for this, we moved No. 10 Michigan into the No. 9 position to free up the spot for Arkansas, and then shifted Denver and No. 11 UCLA to the right accordingly. We don’t know for sure that this is what the committee would do in this scenario, so we’ve labeled that row with asterisks to indicate that uncertainty.
The usual disclaimers apply to the remainder of the bracket projection: Teams in bold are extremely likely to end up in the indicated location due to geographical proximity (within the NCAA’s 400-mile limit), but the remainder of the assignments are simply a best guess at what the committee might do.
Bubble Watch: Teams
Road to Nationals debuted its “Regionals Locked In” chart this week, so we’ll be taking a look at every team who is not at least “likely locked” or “likely out” of a regionals berth. Unfortunately, we’re down to only four teams that meet this criteria, indicating that the regionals bubble is a lot smaller this year than we would typically see.
Scores in bold can no longer be replaced, and crossed out scores are the current season high (which does not factor into NQS). Scores with an asterisk are replaceable this coming weekend. If a team has two meets this weekend, the max NQS is calculated using its current season high for both meets.
No. 36 Iowa State
| Current NQS | 196.325 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.700, 196.150, 195.950* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.515 |
| Highest possible ranking | 32 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
No one can unseat Iowa State from regionals position this week, but the Cyclones are not in control of their own destiny and can’t guarantee moving ahead of any other teams. They need a 196.550 to have a chance of catching Ball State, and something higher than that may allow them to pass BYU, Southern Utah, and San Jose State, depending on how everyone performs this weekend. Longer term, Iowa State should aim to score as high as possible this week to have a higher likelihood of being able to control its own destiny going into the Big 12 championship.
No. 37 Iowa
| Current NQS | 196.230 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.400, 196.150, 196.075* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.305 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 37 |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
Iowa banked a desperately needed new season high last week, but it was only half a tenth higher than its previous and therefore did little to change the score-bunching situation. The Hawkeyes are going into another week where they cannot improve their ranking, but they also can’t be passed by any other teams. They need at least a 196.275 this weekend to mathematically stay in the regionals conversation, but they will ideally want to score much higher than that to increase their upside going into the conference championship. They are competing in Tennessee this week, so a massive season high isn’t out of the question.
No. 43 Lindenwood
| Current NQS | 195.570 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.075, 195.225, 194.825* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.020 |
| Highest possible ranking | 38 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 50 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Although it is only ranked No. 43 at the moment, Lindenwood has a 194.825 to drop and has topped out over 197 this season. It needs a 196.775 to mathematically stay in the regionals conversation, but that is a number it has only surpassed once this season. There’s a lot of opportunity to move up the rankings this week for the Lions, but they can only go as high as No. 38, and if they record a drop score, they risk being passed up by lower ranked teams and knocked out of the bubble conversation.
No. 45 George Washington
| Current NQS | 195.555 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.675, 195.575, 195.175* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.150 |
| Highest possible ranking | 38 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 51 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
George Washington has a double meet weekend coming up and two low-195s that are itching to be dropped. George Washington unfortunately continued its inability to earn a 196 on the road last week but will hope to correct that in its road opportunity this weekend. Luckily, there’s also a home meet that may yield better results. George Washington could find itself as high as No. 38 in rankings if it matches its season high at both outings. A new season high could catapult it even higher, but two non-counters could find it moving down in the rankings. It’s hard to predict the potential here, but definitely keep your eye on George Washington this weekend.
Regionals Projection: Individuals
If regionals were to start tomorrow, the following gymnasts would qualify as all-arounders.
Projected All-Around Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Raisa Boris | No. 41 Eastern Michigan | 39.360 |
| Niya Randolph | No. 33 Southern Utah | 39.335 |
| Maggie Slife | No. 55 Air Force | 39.315 |
| Payton Murphy | No. 38 Western Michigan | 39.310 |
| Syd Morris | No. 60 LIU | 39.265 |
| Luciana Alvarado-Reid | No. 40 Central Michigan | 39.255 |
| Lauren Macpherson | No. 32 San Jose State | 39.255 |
| Victoria Henry | No. 35 Ball State | 39.245 |
| Kylie Gorgenyi | No. 49 New Hampshire | 39.245 |
| Zoe Middleton | No. 35 Ball State | 39.235 |
| Hannah Ruthberg | No. 35 Ball State | 39.230 |
| Angelica Labat | No. 39 Illinois State | 39.230 |
Iowa’s Karina Muñoz only needs one more all-around performance to join this list and would likely find herself at the top if she scores in line with her current average of 39.470. The first three athletes on the outside looking in are Julia Knower (North Carolina), Abby Mueller (Illinois), and Eva Volpe (Iowa); of these three, Knower has the two highest scores on the season, so she is most likely to move up the rankings. Keep in mind that teams assigned to the play-in round are eligible to qualify athletes as individuals, so as the rankings fluctuate in these final two weeks, the athletes eligible for this list will change.
Projected Vault Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Suki Pfister | No. 35 Ball State | 9.935 |
| Elise Tisler | No. 30 Towson | 9.895 |
| Josie Bergstrom | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.885 |
| Keanna Abraham | No. 47 UC Davis | 9.885 |
| Emily Leese | No. 48 Rutgers | 9.880 |
| Sarah Zois | No. 45 George Washington | 9.875 |
| Arielle Ward | No. 30 Illinois | 9.875 |
| Kiera O’Shea | No. 53 Northern Illinois | 9.875 |
| Sydney Benson | No. 34 BYU | 9.870 |
| Noelle Adams | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.870 |
| Martina Comin | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.865 |
| Kayla Pardue | No. 33 Southern Utah | 9.865 |
| Elizabeth Cesarone | No. 40 Central Michigan | 9.860 |
| Karina Muñoz | No. 37 Iowa | 9.855 |
| Lali Dekanoidze | No. 46 North Carolina | 9.855 |
| Halle Faulkner | No. 38 Western Michigan | 9.855 |
As the rankings currently stand, there is a six-way tie for the final three spots, with Jaye Mack (Illinois State), Jaudai Lopes (San Jose State), and Megan Ray (UC Davis) losing out on the tiebreaker; of these three, Ray has the best chance at moving up the rankings with a 9.925 season high and a 9.800 to drop. Kylie Gorgenyi, Victoria Henry, and Zoe Middleton are all currently projected as all-around qualifiers, but if any of them were to drop out of a qualification position, they would be in the mix to qualify on vault instead; all-around qualifiers are excluded from individual event qualification.
Projected Bars Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Isabella Minervini | No. 30 Towson | 9.945 |
| Ashley Szymanski | No. 35 Ball State | 9.910 |
| Mia Takekawa | No. 30 Illinois | 9.910 |
| Kinsey Davis | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.905 |
| Emma Spence | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.900 |
| Isabelle Schaefer | No. 46 North Carolina | 9.890 |
| Anyssa Alvarado | No. 34 BYU | 9.885 |
| Lyden Saltness | No. 30 Illinois | 9.885 |
| Lali Dekanoidze | No. 46 North Carolina | 9.885 |
| Alyssa Al-Ashari | No. 53 Northern Illinois | 9.880 |
| Megan Teter | No. 35 Ball State | 9.875 |
| Anna Bramblett | No. 34 BYU | 9.875 |
| Jada Mazury | No. 32 San Jose State | 9.875 |
| Amelia Knight | No. 30 Illinois | 9.870 |
| Avery Balser | No. 48 Rutgers | 9.870 |
| Isabella Neff | No. 33 Southern Utah | 9.870 |
There was a four-way tie for the final three qualification spots, with Lindenwood’s Hannah Appleget being the one left out after applying the tiebreaker. The next three in line are Ayla McKean (Air Force), Grace Vaillancourt (Towson), and Amelia Moneymaker (UC Davis); Vaillancourt is most likely to make a move with a season high of 9.950. Further down the rankings, keep an eye on SUU’s Aubri Schwartze, who could jump up to a 9.880 NQS if she replaces her counting 9.750 with a 9.900. Gorgenyi is another potential qualifier here if she drops out of all-around qualification position, along with Luciana Alvarado-Reid.
Projected Beam Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Brynlee Andersen | No. 34 BYU | 9.900 |
| Mia Takekawa | No. 30 Illinois | 9.900 |
| Karina Muñoz | No. 37 Iowa | 9.890 |
| Ellie Cacciola | No. 33 Southern Utah | 9.890 |
| Ilka Juk | No. 37 Iowa | 9.885 |
| Noelle Adams | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.885 |
| Ella Chemotti | No. 41 Eastern Michigan | 9.880 |
| Elease Rollins | No. 34 BYU | 9.875 |
| Sophia McClelland | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.875 |
| Katherine Weyhmiller | No. 32 San Jose State | 9.870 |
| Josie Bergstrom | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.865 |
| Grace Vaillancourt | No. 30 Towson | 9.860 |
| Kennedi McClain | No. 33 Southern Utah | 9.850 |
| Kaitlyn Ewald | No. 30 Illinois | 9.845 |
| Lauren Thomas | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.845 |
| Stephanie Zannella | No. 48 Rutgers | 9.845 |
Lindenwood is unlucky once again in this projection, with Nya Kraus losing out on a four-way tie for the final three spots. However, with a 9.775 still counting toward her NQS, she has an excellent shot to move into qualifying position over the final two weeks of season. Ewald is going to have a hard time staying on this list unless she can increase her season high of 9.850. Looking further down the rankings, SUU’s Alyssa Fernandez, Illinois State’s Madison Kipp, and NIU’s Alyssa Al-Ashari are all counting 9.775s and could move into qualifying position by replacing those with 9.900-plus scores. Syd Morris would be the top qualifier here if they were to drop out of the all-around qualifying list, though their spot there is likely secured; Hannah Ruthberg’s all-around spot isn’t as certain, and she would also be in the mix here, as would Lauren Macpherson.
Projected Floor Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Julia Bedell | No. 62 Brown | 9.920 |
| Kendall Whitman | No. 45 George Washington | 9.915 |
| Jada Mazury | No. 32 San Jose State | 9.915 |
| Hallie Hornbacher | No. 40 Central Michigan | 9.905 |
| Jaye Mack | No. 39 Illinois State | 9.905 |
| Noelle Adams | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.905 |
| Mia Townes | No. 30 Illinois | 9.900 |
| Keanna Abraham | No. 47 UC Davis | 9.900 |
| Csenge Bácskay | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.895 |
| Sophia McClelland | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.895 |
| Emma Spence | No. 29 Nebraska | 9.895 |
| Brooke Donabedian | No. 54 Temple | 9.895 |
| Alana Laster | No. 39 Illinois State | 9.890 |
| Jordyn Ewing | No. 44 Pittsburgh | 9.890 |
| Cassie St. Clair | No. 38 Western Michigan | 9.890 |
| Kaia Parker | No. 36 Iowa State | 9.885 |
Yet another tiebreaker was required here, with Parker winning a four-way tie for the final spot over Gayla Griswold (Lindenwood), Jah’Liyah Bedminster (Pittsburgh), and Emily Leese (Rutgers). Griswold is in the best position to move up, with a 9.975 season high and a 9.850 still to drop; however, she has not competed since Feb. 16 and may be injured. Zoe Middleton would be a likely qualifier with her 9.910 NQS if she should drop out of all-around qualification range, and Victoria Henry would also be in the mix with her 9.885 NQS.
READ THIS NEXT: Questions, Comments, Concerns: Week 9
Article by Jenna King, Claire Harmon, Mariah Dawson, and Emma Hammerstrom
3 comments