We’ve only got two weekends left until conference championships. Our first postseason meets are behind us, and they were… a little odd? Most meets from here on out are going to be somebody’s senior night. (I assume; I haven’t actually counted.) The bubble and all the associated scenarios and stakes and eliminations are just around the corner. I have thoughts about all of those things. Welcome to March.
Question: Can Air Force and Penn keep this up down the stretch?
Both of these teams are having extraordinary seasons. Air Force can’t stop setting records. Penn, having blown up the record book in recent years, hasn’t yet reached quite such heights (though it may be coming), but unprecedented consistency relatively early in the season has lifted the Quakers up the rankings. Both of these teams are currently in regionals position, and making it there would be extraordinary and historic in both cases.
Both of these teams are led by sixth-year head coaches who have done impressive work making their teams into attractive recruiting destinations, despite very unusual recruiting processes, and then successfully navigated the idiosyncrasies of running a sports team at institutions that demand so much of their student-athletes outside of practice. These rosters weren’t built overnight, and it’s so wonderful to see the vision that has driven these two coaching eras rewarded.
For Penn, reaching these heights without star senior Skye Kerico adds to the impressiveness. As devastating as her injury was, it is allowing Penn to show off just how sustainable its upward trajectory as a program is. Air Force’s leap up the rankings this year might feel a little more sudden, but the tape tells the story of just how serious and stacked the Falcons are.
It’s projected to be another tight bubble for regionals this year, with seven teams currently between a 195.100 and 195.200 NQS. We’ll have to see whether these two teams can dig in and stay on the right side of the line.
Bonus Questions:
Kentucky is a lot less of a disaster now, but how far can this team go? February has been a much better month for the Wildcats, who are settling into being a 197-ish team. That could be enough to get into the regional final, especially at home, but it might be too late for a seed at regionals.
Is the O’Dome on senior night enough to defeat Florida’s vault demons? LSU at Florida is an ugly meet to predict. LSU is certainly the better team right now but hasn’t yet broken 198 outside of Baton Rouge. Florida’s vault lineup is chronically a problem, but vault is the easiest event to overperform on by luck alone. Either way, this one will be wild.
Comment: Stanford is doing it again.
The great strength of Tabitha Yim-era Stanford has always been its pacing. This team gets hot late and destroys dreams in the postseason. The scariest part of this weekend’s 198 is that history shows us that once the Cardinal figures itself out, it keeps getting better. The second scariest part is that, like the previous (and also dangerous) season high, this was a road score.
This is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It’s difficult to project a limit. A top-two seed at regionals feels likely, and I don’t think a national final appearance is out of reach. Vault difficulty still separates the Cardinal from most of the major nationals contenders, but that might not end up mattering. UCLA visiting this week is an important test. To me, if Stanford can beat UCLA, it’s officially a top team regardless of the ranking math.
Bonus Comments:
What a triumph Big Fours was for Minnesota. The Gophers look like the most convincing rival for UCLA in the Big Ten right now. The Big Ten championship can’t come soon enough.
N.C. State is on an unbelievable run. The Wolfpack got a season high on the road this weekend and is looking increasingly like a prospect for the regional final, to very little fanfare. This team transitioned so well away from the graduation of the program-defining Negrete/Shepard cluster and continues to make it look effortless.
Concern: How bad is the Lily Smith injury for Georgia?
Two pieces to this: One, we don’t yet know (at the time of writing) what the injury actually was. Two, I don’t have a good read on how the lineups are going to withstand this one in the long term. Immediate indicators are strong: The meet following that injury felt pretty routine for an SEC road win. The routines that went in for her bars (Brooke Pierson) and floor (Nicole King) were more than credible, and the beam lineup has been a bit all over the place anyway, with Smith herself not a juggernaut this year.
If she is, in fact, done for the season, I don’t think this sinks the team. But it might be a limitation to upside as the postseason closes in.
Bonus Concerns:
I can’t not mention Iowa State. What a pathetic, cowardly ending this athletic department engineered for such a storied program.
A season low at Big Fours is not what UCLA was looking for. Probably nothing to panic about yet, just an unfortunately timed hiccup. But I’m looking for a return to form this week against a dangerous Stanford.
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Article by Rebecca Scally
A mention that Brice Biggins is coaching his last regular season meet after 35 years at Kent State might have been worth a mention. The program goes back to 1957 and has only had two coaches. Janet Bachna and Brice.