Now that regionals competition has wrapped up, we ran another 10,000 simulations of our postseason model, this time featuring only the eight teams that have punched their tickets to nationals, to get updated probabilities for each to bring home the title. For background on the model methodology and to view the pre-regionals results, see our article on the 2025 postseason simulator. For these runs, we removed the scores from injured athletes, weighed scores from March and April more heavily than scores from earlier in the season, and also prioritized road scores over home scores. We also tracked how often individuals won each title over the course of the 10,000 runs!
Team Results
| Semifinal | Team | Finalist | Top 3 | Top 2 | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma | 97.70% | 94.92% | 84.32% | 56.77% |
| 1 | Florida | 79.40% | 60.32% | 30.92% | 10.53% |
| 1 | Missouri | 16.78% | 6.59% | 1.21% | 0.09% |
| 1 | Alabama | 6.12% | 1.55% | 0.20% | 0.01% |
| 2 | LSU | 93.54% | 88.47% | 69.45% | 30.03% |
| 2 | Utah | 42.12% | 19.95% | 5.78% | 1.00% |
| 2 | UCLA | 45.28% | 22.23% | 6.89% | 1.40% |
| 2 | Michigan State | 19.06% | 5.97% | 1.23% | 0.17% |
For the first semifinal, Oklahoma and Florida are clear favorites, with Missouri a bit more likely to pull an upset than Alabama. It’s not surprising to see such low advancement numbers in the simulations since Alabama is the only team outside the top eight to qualify for nationals. The second semifinal has a clear favorite in LSU, but the second qualification spot is predicted to be a close race between the two survivors of the Salt Lake City regional, UCLA (45%) and Utah (42%). These two teams have met twice so far this season, with Utah the victor on both occasions, but this will be the first time outside Salt Lake City, which may account for the model slightly favoring UCLA this time. Michigan State looks to be on the outside looking in, but its odds to make the final are better than either of the two underdogs in the first semifinal.
Looking at the championship predictions, reigning champion and No. 1 overall seed LSU is an underdog to Oklahoma, which spent the majority of the season at No. 1 in the rankings and has a higher average team score than the Tigers. The only other team given a significant chance is Florida at just over 10%; the Gators are on a hot streak, having exceeded the 198 threshold in four of their last six meets, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them in the mix in the final.
Individual Results
| AA | VT | UB | BB | FX | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jade Carey | 56.06% | Jade Carey | 15.75% | Grace McCallum | 33.83% | Jade Carey | 29.60% | Faith Torrez | 22.00% |
| Faith Torrez | 11.17% | Selena Harris-Miranda | 15.32% | Jordan Bowers | 12.12% | Helen Hu | 22.34% | Jade Carey | 18.19% |
| Jordan Bowers | 8.13% | Kailin Chio | 13.43% | Leanne Wong | 11.24% | Faith Torrez | 17.52% | Jordan Chiles | 13.40% |
| Leanne Wong | 6.92% | Gabrielle Stephen | 10.76% | Mara Titarsolej | 10.37% | Gabrielle Stephen | 6.38% | Jordan Bowers | 11.92% |
| Selena Harris-Miranda | 5.74% | Jordan Bowers | 9.66% | Jade Carey | 7.75% | Ciena Alipio | 6.23% | Brooklyn Moors | 8.41% |
| Kailin Chio | 4.72% | Faith Torrez | 6.47% | Riley McCusker | 6.91% | Selena Harris-Miranda | 5.45% | Mya Lauzon | 7.56% |
| Haleigh Bryant | 2.98% | Leanne Wong | 5.47% | Audrey Davis | 6.52% | Grace McCallum | 5.05% | Lilly Hudson | 7.02% |
| Jordan Chiles | 2.74% | Elle Mueller | 5.29% | Jordan Chiles | 4.94% | Gabby McLaughlin | 5.05% | Creslyn Brose | 6.74% |
| Grace McCallum | 2.37% | Olivia Zsarmani | 5.27% | Olivia Greaves | 4.01% | Aleah Finnegan | 4.47% | Kennedy Griffin | 5.78% |
| Aleah Finnegan | 1.56% | Sage Kellerman | 4.48% | Nikki Smith | 3.83% | Leanne Wong | 4.32% | Aleah Finnegan | 5.06% |
Jade Carey has been the most dominant all-arounder in the country this year, with a season low of 39.575 and a season high of 39.925, so that dominance is reflected in the simulation runs, with over half of them finishing with her in first place (including ties). She’s also the favorite on vault and beam, second favorite on floor, and in the top five on bars. Selena Harris-Miranda, Faith Torrez, Jordan Bowers, Leanne Wong, Kailin Chio, Jordan Chiles, Grace McCallum, and Aleah Finnegan also feature heavily in these results—and don’t forget about last year’s AA champion Haleigh Bryant, who was limited due to injury for part of the season but has been competing all-around since late February.
Want to try this simulation yourself?
You're in luck! Click the simulate button below, and tables will appear showing the results of both semifinals and Four on the Floor! We've also added in individual event winners using the scores from the teams and individual qualifiers. Click the button again to run a new simulation. Counts of wins will show up under the "Win Count" header. Be sure to share your results on social media!
Calculating...
Win Counts
READ THIS NEXT: Leotard Rankings: Regionals
Simulation script and article by Jenna King; on-page simulation by Izzi Baskin
Nikki Smith, Riley McCusker, Jordan Chiles, and Olivia Greaves are listed as possible UB winners but not Madelyn Williams, with a higher NQS and average, plus higher scores in March and April of five 9.95s and a 9.925? I don’t understand how your program came up with this.
This was really a fun simulator to play with!! I want to see a simulation in which LSU doesn’t make the finals. I know that it is highly unlikely, but I’d like to see which two teams do make it from that semi if they choke.