After years of surprises on NCAA championships selection day, the 2025 show went swimmingly, as our data gurus Jenna King and Claire Harmon projected the postseason bracket perfectly, making for a drama-free reveal. With that, there are far fewer circumstantial “winners” and “losers” of the bracket, but there are still a few scenarios worth diving into that put teams or individuals at an advantage or disadvantage come regionals.
Winners
Oklahoma
While not having the No. 1 seed may sting right now, competing in Seattle as the No. 2 team in the tournament actually gives the Sooners a relatively smooth path to Fort Worth. They will be the likely favorites to advance to the regional final and compete against three of their SEC competitors—Missouri, Auburn, and Georgia—all of which they defeated in the regular season. If Oklahoma maintains its normal, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be back at nationals.
Missouri
Speaking of Seattle, No. 7 Missouri is in a good spot to qualify to nationals as a team for the first time since 2022. However, if that doesn’t happen, several individuals are in a solid position to advance instead. Amari Celestine, Helen Hu, Jocelyn Moore, and Mara Titarsolej are ranked in the top 20 on their respective events, so whether it’s as a full team or as individuals, there’s a good chance Missouri will be represented in Fort Worth.
Lily Smith, Georgia
Smith stands a chance to qualify to her second straight nationals as an individual if seeds hold in Seattle and Oklahoma and Missouri advance. Her best path will be to qualify as an individual on bars; outside of those teams, Smith holds the highest NQS among athletes competing in that regional.
Lali Dekanoidze, North Carolina
Fresh off her long-awaited first perfect 10, the Tar Heels’ bar specialist is looking to advance to her first nationals in her final season of eligibility. Competing in Tuscaloosa gives her a great chance to do just that, regardless of which teams advance to the regional final. After an injury-laden career, fans would be thrilled to see the senior have her swan song in Texas.
Losers
California
Slotted into the Alabama Regional, the reigning NCAA runner-up will have to battle to get a chance to defend its status with the host arguably the most challenging regional three-seed thanks to home arena advantage. The Crimson Tide’s season-best is less than a tenth behind the Golden Bears’, and four-seed Oregon State is lurking less than two-tenths behind as well. California heads into regionals off an upset loss to Stanford at the ACC championship, meaning the Golden Bears need a switch in momentum.
Stanford
Speaking of the Cardinal, it’s set for a tough regional semifinal as they’ll square up against the fourth overall seed and host Utah alongside Denver, which has had a streak of postseason upsets in recent years. The Pioneers finished the regular season just outside the regionals seeds in 18th and are coming off years of regionals success—last year sneaking into the regional final over UCLA and taking a trip to the national championships in 2023 thanks to an upset over Michigan. A motivated Denver could cause trouble for Stanford, who would need to best the Utes should the Pioneers prevail.
Clemson
Every year since adding the first-round duals to regionals, at least one team ranked high enough to seemingly avoid the round gets screwed by geography. This year, that school is Clemson—ranked No. 27 set to face No. 34 Rutgers in a dual to open regionals in Alabama. Furthermore, chances of seeing Brie Clark perform her signature Biles I on floor in Fort Worth are slim with this draw, because if seeds hold and Oregon State misses nationals as a team, Clark will have to outdo Olympic floor champion Jade Carey, or other strong floor workers, to qualify.
Joscelyn Roberson, Arkansas
The Olympic alternate has been a dark horse in the freshman of the year race all season long and will be a dark horse to head to nationals as the all-around qualifier in a deep field of four-eventers at the Pennsylvania Regional. Team favorites to advance, LSU and Michigan State, both boast multiple top-25 all-arounders while Kentucky’s Skylar Killough-Wilhelm, who has nationals experience, will factor in, making Roberson’s bid for an appearance at nationals in her rookie season slim unless Arkansas upsets to qualify as a team.
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Article by Savanna Wellman and Brandis Heffner
