The Mount: Week 12 Previews and Predictions

Championship weekend is here! Conference titles, regional qualification, and seeding are all on the line as teams across the country battle it out for the top spot in their respective championships. From the Big Ten and SEC to the MPSF and EAGL, every meet has major stakes. Will UCLA claim its first Big Ten title? Can Oklahoma take home its first SEC championship? And which teams will punch their ticket to regionals in dramatic fashion? We’re breaking down every must-watch meet, key storylines, and our predictions for who will come out on top.

Must-Watch Meets

Big Ten Championship

Session 1 | Nebraska, Ohio State, Rutgers, Washington | Friday, March 21 at 6 p.m. ET | BTN

Session 2 | Iowa, Penn State, Maryland, Illinois |Saturday, March 22 at 12 p.m. ET | BTN

Session 3 | UCLA, Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan | Saturday, March 22 at 5 p.m. ET | BTN

Prediction: 63.1% UCLA, 23.5% Michigan State, 8.7% Minnesota, 4.4% Michigan, <0.1% Remaining Teams

Thanks to conference realignment, there are now three sessions of the Big Ten championship, with the added perk of the first session taking place on Friday. Michigan has a tradition of calling the Big Ten championship “our meet” and will be competing at home, but the Wolverines are not the favorites to come away with the win this year. UCLA and Michigan State will likely battle it out for the top spot, with UCLA favored to take the win. Neither UCLA nor Michigan State has hit 198 this season, and while the traditionally lower-scoring environment of the Big Ten championship may not be the place to do it, both teams will hope for high scores to make their mark as the postseason begins.

While session three will almost certainly be where the Big Ten champion is decided, don’t look away from the first two sessions, which represent the last chance for all their teams to impact their regionals placement and qualification. Washington and Rutgers are both currently on the wrong side of the regionals bubble, and while Rutgers can guarantee qualification with a 196.150 or higher, Washington will have to try and score as high as it possibly can and hope higher-ranked teams falter if it wants to make its home regional.

Notes about the predictions: The reigning Big Ten champs come in as underdogs this year, largely due to struggles on beam. If Michigan State can put up the highest score on that event, it becomes the favorite to reclaim the title with a 55% chance of winning it all. UCLA dipped below 49.500 on floor last weekend for the first time since week one. Getting back to that threshold gives the Bruins a 73% chance of winning their first Big Ten title. While the title is largely a battle between these two teams, Rutgers and Washington will be battling in session one to qualify to regionals. Rutgers is the one that controls its own destiny, though, and can guarantee qualifying to regionals with a 196.150 or higher, which it has done twice so far this season and we see occurring in 5% of predicted outcomes.

SEC Championship

Session 1 | Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky | Saturday, March 22 at 3:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Session 2 | Florida, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma | Saturday, March 22 at 8 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 61.2% Oklahoma, 21.9% Florida, 16.2% LSU, <0.3% Remaining Teams

The Sooners are the clear favorites to come away with their first SEC title. However, LSU and Florida are going to put up a good fight. While Oklahoma tops the NQS standings, LSU and Florida have loftier season-highs, showing that if the Gators and Tigers can put the pieces together when it counts, they can challenge the Sooners for an SEC title. 

In the NQS department, this meet will provide one last road score opportunity for teams looking to get favorable regionals seeding. Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia could break into the top 10, contingent upon a strong performance and some mistakes from those ahead of them. 

With the new SEC championship format, where the lowest-ranked team in the conference misses out, Arkansas is in the unfortunate position of missing this meet and will not have the valuable opportunity to add another score to its NQS. On the bright side though, the Razorbacks are mathematically locked in the top 16 and will get a seeded position for regionals.    

Notes about the predictions: Oklahoma enters as the favorite to win the SEC title, but if the Sooners falter, Florida is predicted to be the next most likely team to lift the trophy. Although LSU is the higher-ranked team, it has struggled away from home this season, giving Florida the predicted edge. If this meet were in Baton Rouge, the predictions for LSU and Florida would swap. The SEC title is certainly up for grabs, though, as all eight teams won the title in at least one of our simulations.

Upset Alert

NCGA National Championships

with Oshkosh, Whitewater, Brockport, La Crosse, Rhode Island College, and Cortland

Saturday, March 22 at 3 p.m. ET | Free live stream

Prediction: 41.1% UW-Oshkosh, 25.2% UW-Whitewater, 18.3% Brockport, 14.5% UW-La Crosse, 0.7% Rhode Island College, 0.2% Cortland

Oshkosh has built itself a dynasty, taking the title the past three years, and will be eyeing a fourth consecutive one this week. Challenging it are Whitewater and Brockport. A win for either would be the first since 2018 and 2019, respectively. But there’s so much more at play between each salute and stick, and we are breaking it down even further in our NCGA nationals preview. 

Notes about the predictions: Oshkosh won its regional by over a point by hitting 48-plus on all four events. Doing so again would give the Titans an 83% chance of taking home their fourth consecutive title. Brockport, despite still pulling off the win, had an uncharacteristic floor rotation at regionals and scored a season-low. Getting a 48.700 or higher as it had done the past six meets would give the Golden Eagles a 25% chance of bringing the title back to the east.

EAGL Championship

Saturday, March 22 at 5 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 57.0% Towson, 33.3% George Washington, 5.2% Temple, 4.5% New Hampshire

This matchup is set to be an exciting one, as Towson and George Washington have been neck and neck in the top 36 rankings all season. Towson enters as the slight favorite after recently securing the EAGL regular-season title, finishing just behind N.C. State at last weekend’s George Washington quad meet.

While George Washington has struggled on bars in recent weeks, the Revolutionaries have a deep and reliable lineup capable of putting up strong scores. They hold an edge over Towson on floor, a key event where they could close the gap and gain critical tenths.

Meanwhile, Temple could play spoiler. The Owls have been a bit of a sleeper team, but if they deliver a clean and consistent performance, they could challenge for second place and put pressure on both Towson and George Washington.

Notes about the predictions: George Washington has struggled on bars the past two weeks but can increase its chances of winning the EAGL title to 75% by putting up the higher score than Towson on that event. To do so, George Washington will want to return to the 48.700-plus range, which we see occurring in 30% of predicted outcomes. Both of these teams are currently on the bubble for qualifying to regionals. Our meet predictor gives Towson a 99.8% chance of qualifying, but George Washington only a 0.7% chance.

MAC Championship

Saturday, March 22 at 2 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 28.5% Ball State, 26.8% Central Michigan, 22.3% Western Michigan, 19.3% Kent State, 3.1% Eastern Michigan, <0.1% Remaining Teams

This is your annual reminder not to sleep on the MAC, no matter how confusing it may be to follow seven teams in one session. The conference standings have been neck and neck since January, with the postseason still in reach for whoever can capitalize on the upcoming weekend. Ball State and Kent State will need to test depth after losing key all-arounders while Western Michigan has been on the rise after a few strong out-of-conference matchups. Seventeen-time MAC champion Central Michigan, spearheaded by Luciana Alvarado-Reid, comes in as the favorite on paper, eager to regain the team title. 

Notes about the predictions: 13% of our simulations show the top four contenders of the MAC championship finishing within half a point of each other, making this a close one. Ball State has a slight edge due to its consistency in the mid-to-high 48s on beam. Failing to score at least a 48.500 on that event would drop its win chances down to just 6%. Central Michigan’s key event will be floor, as it has not dropped below the 48.900 mark in eight consecutive meets, but breaking that streak drops its win chances to 14%. Western Michigan’s key to success will be winning beam to give it a 63% chance of taking the title while Kent State can raise its chances up to 41% with a win on either vault or bars.

MIC Championship

Friday, March 21 at 5 p.m. ET | YouTube

Prediction: 71.8% Illinois State, 27.6% Texas Woman’s, <0.1% Remaining Teams

Illinois State is coming off its second-highest score of the season, a 195.875 against SEMO, and has been steadily building momentum heading into championship season. The Redbirds will enter this weekend as favorites to claim the conference title, but their success will likely hinge on bars and beam—two events that have been inconsistent throughout the year. However, Texas Woman’s is poised to challenge for the title. The Pioneers are coming off a season-best 195.975 at a quad meet at Nebraska last weekend, showing they have what it takes to contend. If TWU can replicate or build on that performance, this championship could come down to the final routine, especially with both teams bringing their best gymnastics to the floor.

Notes about the predictions: Illinois State enters the MIC championship with the edge due to predicted floor scores that average 0.250 higher than Texas Woman’s. However, beam consistency will be key here. Scoring below a 48.400, as the Redbirds have done in more than half their meets this season, would give Texas Woman’s the advantage with a 52% chance of winning the MIC title.

Mountain West Championship

Saturday, March 22 at 5 p.m. ET | Free live stream

Prediction: 70.1% Boise State, 18.6% Utah State, 10.8% San Jose State, 0.5% Air Force

The Mountain West has been under the radar this season, so this championship meet will be a fun one to watch. The Broncos are the favorite to win, but Utah State has been surging in recent weeks, as Kristin White’s rebuild appears to be taking shape. However, star sophomore Nyla Morabito is out for the remainder of the season after rupturing her Achilles; she held the team’s highest NQS on vault and floor, so the Aggies will be looking to replace her as they prepare to make a postseason run. While the Spartans and Falcons are both mathematically out of regionals as a team, their individuals will be looking to make a push to qualify individually. Maggie Slife is in a solid position to advance as an all-arounder while Madison Gustitus could qualify on the beam if she has a great meet here. 

Notes about the predictions: A key number these teams will be looking to hit is at least a 48.800 on all four events, which Boise State has done four times this season, Utah State twice, and San Jose State just once. Hitting that mark for Utah State, San Jose State, and Air Force would increase each of their win chances to 44%, 35%, and 17%, respectively.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for the conference championships and NCGA nationals go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.

• The second year of the ACC championship is unique not only for the additions of California and Stanford, but for the format of the event: The first session will be a dual meet, and the second session a quad. Reigning champion N.C. State will try its best to defend its title in the latter session, but a climbing California has the upper hand. This could be one of the more quietly exciting championships of the weekend.
• The MPSF championship will likely come down to a battle between Southern Utah and UC Davis. For the Aggies, there’s plenty of motivation on the table to score well, not just for the win, but to climb into the top 36. Currently sitting at 38th in the rankings, the Aggies are the only team below that mark that are able to make the regionals cut. With a recent jump of seven points to that ranking and standout Amelia Moneymaker earning a program record 39.550 in the all-around last week, the momentum is certainly there.
• This year’s GEC championship sees Penn as the clear favorite, aiming to defend its title with the highest NQS in the conference by a comfortable margin. While the Quakers are the team to beat, several of their standout individuals are also in strong contention for regionals qualification, adding another layer of intrigue. With a tightly contested battle for the podium behind them, this championship could deliver some of the weekend’s most compelling under-the-radar performances.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the best you can, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 41-14)

• ACC: California
• Big 12s: Utah
• Big Tens: Michigan State
• EAGL: Towson
• GEC: Penn
• MAC: Ball State
• MIC: Illinois State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• MWC: Utah State
• NCGA Nationals: UW-Oshkosh
• SEC: Oklahoma

Elizabeth (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 41-14)

• ACC: Cal
• Big 12s: Utah
• Big Tens: UCLA
• EAGL: Towson
• GEC: Penn
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Illinois State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• MWC: Boise State
• NCGA Nationals: Oshkosh
• SEC: Oklahoma

Emily M (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 39-16)

• ACC: California
• Big 12s: Utah 
• Big Tens: UCLA
• EAGL: Towson
• GEC: Penn
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Illinois State
• MPSF: UC Davis
• MWC: Boise State
• NCGA Nationals: Brockport
• SEC: Oklahoma 

Jenna (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 43-12)

• ACC: California
• Big 12s: Utah
• Big Tens: UCLA
• EAGL: Towson
• GEC: Penn
• MAC: Central Michigan
• MIC: Illinois State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• MWC: Boise State
• NCGA Nationals: UW-Oshkosh
• SEC: LSU

Rebecca (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 44-11)

• ACC: Cal
• Big 12s: Utah
• Big Tens: UCLA
• EAGL: Towson
• GEC: Penn
• MAC: Central Michigan
• MIC: Illinois State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• MWC: Boise State
• NCGA Nationals: UW-Oshkosh
• SEC: Oklahoma

Week 12 Guest: Alyssa

• ACC: California
• Big 12s: Utah
• Big Tens: Michigan State
• EAGL: Towson
• GEC: Penn
• MAC: Kent State
• MIC: Illinois State
• MPSF: Southern Utah
• MWC: Boise State
• NCGA Nationals: Whitewater
• SEC: Oklahoma

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News