The Mount: Week 11 Previews and Predictions

With just two weeks left in the regular season, week 11 brings high-stakes showdowns that could reshape conference standings and national rankings alike. From historic rivalries and postseason implications to senior night celebrations and crucial NQS battles, this weekend’s meets are packed with drama. Whether it’s UCLA and Utah reigniting their rivalry on national TV, Alabama and Michigan fighting to solidify their championship spots, or teams on the bubble scrambling for one last big road score, there’s no shortage of storylines to follow. We break down the must-watch matchups, potential upsets, and what’s on the line as teams look to make their final statement before championship season begins.

Must-Watch Meets

UCLA at Utah

Saturday, March 15 at 9 p.m. ET | FOX

Prediction: 59.3% Utah, 40.7% UCLA

In their second meet on FOX this season, the Bruins head to the Huntsman Center for a longtime rivalry meet that many were worried about losing after the Pac-12 collapsed. The Red Rocks have been climbing all season, and with the return of Avery Neff to the all-around, they appear to be peaking at just the right time. UCLA has been hovering around the mid-to-high 197s, and with an environment like the Huntsman Center on senior night, it might be the night it reaches its first 198 of the season. It’s also a reunion for former Bruin Ana Padurariu, as she faces off against her former teammates after deferring a year for the Olympics. 

Notes about the predictions: Utah has the edge going into this top-five matchup due to its higher predicted bars scores, but if UCLA can put up the higher score on the Utes’ best event, its win chances increase to 64%. Continuing to hover around the 49.300 mark on bars as the Bruins have done the past three meets only gives them a 22% chance of winning that event. In the race for the higher NQS, both of these teams are looking to replace a 197.300. If Utah can score at least 0.075 higher than UCLA, it can guarantee a higher ranking going into conference championships week, which we see happening in 53% of the outcomes.

Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California

Sunday, March 16 at 5 p.m. ET | ACCNx

Prediction: 88.6% California, 11.1% Stanford, 0.2% Arizona State, 0.1% San Jose State

Stanford and California are set to meet for the third time this season, with Cal winning both prior matchups. As this marks the final home meet for the Golden Bears, that trend is likely to continue—but with three of these teams competing twice this weekend, potential lineup changes could shake things up and make for an interesting contest.

Arizona State will face Cal twice over the weekend and will be aiming to notch its second and third away scores of 196-plus to strengthen its NQS. San Jose State, coming off a season-high thanks to a stellar vault rotation, will be hoping to replicate that performance on the road and stay in the hunt for a regionals berth.

Notes about the predictions: California comes in as the clear favorite to win at home, but Stanford could be poised for an upset if it can take floor and one additional event—beam being the most likely candidate. If the Cardinal manages to win that event pair, its chances of pulling off an upset rise to 57%. San Jose State, ranked 48th and currently on the outside of regionals qualification, will need a big day to stay in the mix. While it may seem like a long shot, a score of 195.750 or higher could push the Spartans up to No. 42 this week, keeping postseason hopes alive. Based on projections, there’s about a 15% chance of them hitting that mark.

Upset Alert

Maryland, N.C. State, and Towson at George Washington

Friday, March 14 at 6 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 46.7% Maryland, 42.4% N.C. State, 6.9% George Washington, 3.9% Towson

George Washington and Towson will meet for the fourth time this season, with George Washington winning twice and Towson taking the other. N.C State will meet Towson for the second time, as the Wolfpack hosted the Tigers for its home opener. Maryland is the only team in this quad that has not met with any of these teams. All four will be looking to improve their NQS and hit season-high scores to make a final push for better rankings positions heading into the postseason.

Notes about the predictions: Maryland and N.C. State are neck and neck in this matchup. Half of our simulations show these two teams finishing within three-tenths of each other. Last weekend, N.C. State had two meets with two very different beam performances. The one it more closely replicates could decide the meet for the Wolfpack. Getting a 49.300 or higher as it did in meet one last weekend would give N.C. State a 79% chance of winning, while a 48.900 or lower, as in meet two, would drop its chances down to just 27%.

Alabama at Michigan

Friday, March 14 at 6 p.m. ET | B1G+

Prediction: 73.6% Alabama, 26.4% Michigan

After a relatively low-scoring meet last week, Alabama needs at least a 197.050 this week to lock in its spot at the SEC championship. The stakes couldn’t be higher—missing out would mean sitting on the sidelines for a championship meet hosted just down the road in Birmingham, Alabama.

While Alabama enters as the favorite, Michigan is very much in this fight. The Wolverines haven’t cracked 197 in four weeks, and if they hope to climb into a seeded spot for regionals, they’ll need to start posting bigger numbers—and soon. With both teams under pressure to deliver, expect a competitive meet that could come down to the final routine.

Notes about the predictions: Alabama comes in as the favorite on three of the four events, giving the Crimson Tide a strong chance to close out the regular season with a win. However, regardless of the outcome, Alabama’s top priority will be posting a 197.050 or higher to secure a spot at the SEC championship—something that happened in 63% of our simulations. Meanwhile, Michigan sits just outside the top 16 this week and will be looking for at least a 196.625 to boost its NQS and stay in the hunt for a seeded regionals spot. Based on our projections, the Wolverines have a 33% chance of hitting that mark.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week 11 go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.

• Oklahoma played with its typically consistent lineups last week, with Danielle Sievers slotting into floor for Lily Pederson and Ava Siegfeldt returning to the beam lineup. It will be interesting to see if the Sooners do the same at Georgia, which has an undefeated home record thus far. With the chance for LSU to overtake first place in the national standings on the line no matter what Oklahoma scores, the Sooners will still want to put up a strong away number heading into SECs.
• Missouri comes off a program record score to compete at Arkansas and has one more chance to make a statement going into SECs. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Barnhill Arena has been the site of multiple top-10 upsets, and the Razorbacks have extra motivation to pull off another, with the final remaining spot at the championship hanging in the balance.
• Despite crushing injuries to key players, Penn State overcame the odds this season and scored a season high on the road last weekend. The Nittany Lions now travel to Clemson for a fun non-conference dual meet that could see them continue to maintain their place in the top 25.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the best you can, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 36-14)

• UCLA at Utah: Utah
• Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California: California
• Alabama at Michigan: Alabama
• Penn State at Clemson: Clemson
• Utah State at Arizona: Arizona

Elizabeth (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 38-12)

• UCLA at Utah: Utah
• Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California: California
• Alabama at Michigan: Michigan
• Penn State at Clemson: Penn State
• Utah State at Arizona: Arizona

Emily M (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 36-14)

• UCLA at Utah: Utah
• Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California: California
• Alabama at Michigan: Michigan
• Penn State at Clemson: Penn State
• Utah State at Arizona: Arizona

Jenna (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 38-12)

• UCLA at Utah: Utah
• Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California: California
• Alabama at Michigan: Alabama
• Penn State at Clemson: Clemson
• Utah State at Arizona: Arizona

Rebecca (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 39-11)

• UCLA at Utah: Utah
• Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California: California
• Alabama at Michigan: Alabama
• Penn State at Clemson: Clemson 
• Utah State at Arizona: Arizona

Week 11 Guest: Savanna

• UCLA at Utah: Utah
• Arizona State, San Jose State, and Stanford at California: California
• Alabama at Michigan: Alabama
• Penn State at Clemson: Clemson
• Utah State at Arizona: Arizona

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: Leotard Rankings: Week 10

Article by the editors of College Gym News