Two more weekends left in the regular season. It’s serious now. A lot of the narratives we’ve watched through the season are really coming to fruition. Remember last week when I asked why Maryland hadn’t cracked 196 yet and now that’s happened twice? I do plenty of jinxing as well, and there are some stories we won’t know the ending of until the postseason (nobody’s mind was changed by that particular Florida 198, right?) Let’s see how many of this week’s thoughts aren’t completely obsolete by the end of the regular season.
Question: Are we going to have an interesting bubble again this year?
It’s tight down there. By my count, 11 teams currently in the top 36 can mathematically drop out this week, and nine teams outside can enter. Some of those are admittedly dependent on some pretty unlikely scenarios (San Jose State can rank No. 36 with back-to-back program records on its double meet weekend only if nobody else improves, for example), but plenty of teams don’t need to stretch the limits of plausibility. Even the ones who only have mathematical possibilities of moving up due to a double this weekend can certainly take advantage of those schedules to move themselves into the outside of the bubble proper, from where they can then try to contend in the last two weeks.
Last year, the bubble collapsed pretty early and we didn’t get to enjoy a lot of scenarios or calculations. It’s really nice to have that back and have no idea who’s going to make it this year. It definitely makes conference weekend far more exciting, which will be appreciated given how uncontentious most of these conference titles are looking.
And speaking of conferences, I was a doubter of the new SEC format (and I still think it’s deeply unkind), but I’m having so much fun tracking the qualifying scenarios! More on that later. This is what the end of the regular season is meant to be about.
Bonus Questions:
How does Ball State keep doing this? Even before Tennessee(™) and last year’s breakout overall, Ball State tends to be a team that can score really high out of nowhere. This weekend brought a season high by over 1.3. It’s fun, but I don’t understand it.
Why were this week’s mid-week meets so good? Usually, you’re reasonably safe to ignore anything that happens between Tuesday and Thursday. (Sorry MAC, you know I love you.) This week we got four season highs from six competing teams, all of which were at least moderately badly needed, not to mention Penn getting back to its usual business of blowing up the record book.
Comment: Nebraska keeps quietly getting better.
Nebraska has been doing a nice job of building back after missing regionals in 2021 and 2022, but this year had the potential to pose a bigger challenge. An important senior class graduated last year, weekly all-arounder Csenge Bácskay transferred out, and Lucy Stanhope once again got injured. Half of the coaching staff also had to be replaced after two of last year’s departed for Georgia. The Huskers handled all of that very smoothly, mostly by adding events for last year’s regular competitors. There have been a couple of unexpected gems, like junior Lauren Homecillo’s emergence as a floor specialist, but the primary answer to the depth questions has been Whitney Jencks and Sophia McClelland becoming weekly all-arounders.
After four straight meets in the mid-196s, this is the most comfortable Nebraska has felt in the rankings since 2020.
Bonus Comments:
Arizona State has to like its prospects over the next few weeks. The Sun Devils started pretty slow this year, partially due to some injuries, but were able to stay north of 196 for all of February. Now, they’re in the enviable position of having four road meets to finish the season.
Southern Utah is sneaking up on us. A 196.650 on the road this weekend was a really important result with significant ranking implications. Last year was a transition year for the Thunderbirds as they learned to live without a program-defining 2023 graduating class that included Karley McClain and Shylen Murakami. Now, the freshmen who felt that pressure are sophomores who can do a lot of very important routines very consistently and it’s showing in the results.
Concern: Auburn is suddenly in a dangerous spot.
I’ve liked a lot about Auburn’s season this year, but this week wasn’t auspicious. A potentially serious injury to all-arounder Katelyn Jong just as Alabama seems to be starting its move out of the bottom of the SEC might put the Tigers in danger of being the team that misses the championship.
Alabama is still behind Auburn but has a double meet weekend week 10 that comes with the potential for huge NQS moves. Arkansas can pass and leave Auburn at the bottom of the conference, but Auburn does control its own destiny at least: A 197.050 guarantees Auburn will stay ahead of the Razorbacks.
It’s distinctly possible that Auburn will manage to hold Arkansas off for the rest of the season or that Alabama will blow its chances to escape the danger zone this weekend. But facing down such stakes with your all-around star apparently injured is an alarming prospect.
Bonus Concerns:
The Towson at LIU meet was hilarious, but come on now. We can’t manage decimal places in 2025?
What can Penn State take away from this season? This season was projected to be a great one for the Nittany Lions. Instead, it’s been a testament to depth and resilience as they’ve withstood a really unlucky set of injuries and leaned on a talented freshman class to do it. It’s remarkable to be down so many important routines and still be able to do things like rest the reigning Big Ten freshman of the year, even if the resulting team score wasn’t the very best. Missing out on the opportunity of a deep postseason run with this ultra-stacked roster is definitely disappointing, but there are a lot of positives to take away from how they’ve managed to limit the damage. (Hopefully one of the positives will be an Ava Piedrahita redshirt year.)
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Article by Rebecca Scally
