SEC championship is only 22 days away, and for the first time in its modern history, one of the teams in the conference will not be participating. Which school will be staying home and missing the opportunity to increase its NQS prior to regionals selection? We’ll dive into the numbers to see who’s in danger, as well as who is likely to make the evening session.
Unlike our normal Bubble Watch article, which focuses on NQS scenarios for regionals qualification, in this SEC version we’ll be focusing on the scores each team is locked into counting toward its NQS on Monday, March 17, which is presumably when the decision will be made about which team will be staying home. We’ll also look at how many meets each team has remaining until then.
In the tables below, bold scores are locked into being counted in the March 17 NQS, strikethrough is used to indicate the season high currently being dropped from the NQS calculation, and an asterisk indicates the score that can be replaced this coming weekend. Rankings indicated are only among SEC teams, not the national rankings. The highest and lowest possible rankings are only relevant for this Monday’s (March 3) rankings.
Evening Session Locks
No. 1 Oklahoma
| Current NQS | 197.865 |
| Highest three road scores | 198.050, 197.950, 197.675* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 198.025 (1st) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.945 |
| Highest possible ranking | 1 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 1 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 1 home, 2 road |
No. 2 LSU
| Current NQS | 197.540 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.650, 197.300, 197.200* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.900 (2nd) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.710 |
| Highest possible ranking | 2 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 2 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 1 home, 2 road |
It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which Oklahoma and LSU are not in the evening session of the SEC championship this year. They each have two scores above 198.000 and are not currently counting any scores below 197.000 toward their NQS. They can safely focus their attention on staying healthy and qualifying to regionals with the highest possible national ranking.
Evening Session Bubble
No. 3 Florida
| Current NQS | 197.190 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.575, 197.450, 196.625 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.717 (3rd) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.480 |
| Highest possible ranking | 3 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 4 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 2 home, 1 road |
Florida was the first team in the country to score 198-plus this season, and the Gators are clearly the third-best team in the SEC based on these numbers. However, we cannot consider them a lock for the evening session after the recent injury to Sloane Blakely and two consecutive road scores in the mid-196 range. One more mid-197 or higher score will likely move them into the locked status moving forward.
Score to watch: Florida can maintain its No. 3 SEC ranking with a 196.900 against Missouri tonight.
No. 4 Missouri
| Current NQS | 197.095 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.200, 197.175, 197.150 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.275 (5th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.230 |
| Highest possible ranking | 3 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 6 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 1 home, 2 road |
While Missouri, Georgia, Kentucky, and Auburn are all capable of being ranked in the top four of the SEC come Monday, Missouri is in the best position to stay out of danger and make the night session. The Tigers are currently only counting one sub-197 score toward their NQS, and their remaining meets (at Florida, against Auburn, and at Arkansas) are all favorable environments that should produce inspired gymnastics.
Score to watch: A 196.975 tonight would assure at least a tie for fourth in the SEC after this weekend, as it would prevent Kentucky and Auburn from having a chance at passing them.
Don’t Get Too Comfortable
No. 5 Georgia
| Current NQS | 196.990 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.125, 196.975, 196.825* |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.225 (7th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.095 |
| Highest possible ranking | 4 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 7 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 2 home, 1 road |
No. 6 Kentucky
| Current NQS | 196.955 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.225, 196.800, 196.500* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.233 (6th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.115 |
| Highest possible ranking | 4 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 7 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 1 home, 2 road |
No. 7 Auburn
| Current NQS | 196.925 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 197.300, 197.025, 196.700* |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.292 (4th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 197.135 |
| Highest possible ranking | 4 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 8 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 2 home, 1 road |
Georgia, Kentucky, and Auburn are all capable of ranking in the top four in the SEC standings on Monday. Auburn is the most intriguing team in this mix, as it is the only one guaranteed to still be counting a sub-197 score on March 17 but also has the highest season high by a significant margin. This means it has more room to improve its NQS. A home meet against Oklahoma tonight is a great opportunity to score big; a 197.675 would guarantee a move past both Georgia and Kentucky. However, Auburn only has one road meet remaining prior to SECs, and a sub-196.800 score tonight would make it possible for Alabama to move past the Tigers in the rankings.
For Georgia and Kentucky, their biggest issue right now is that their locked-in scores are clustered tightly together; both will want to increase their season highs by several tenths this weekend in order to create some breathing room and stay out of danger of missing SECs.
In Danger
No. 8 Arkansas
| Current NQS | 196.715 |
| Highest three road scores | 197.050, 196.400, 196.250 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 196.875 (9th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.775 |
| Highest possible ranking | 8 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 9 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 2 home, 1 road |
No. 9 Alabama
| Current NQS | 196.690 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.675, 196.575, 196.100* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| Average of locked-in scores | 197.213 (8th) |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.940 |
| Highest possible ranking | 7 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 9 |
| Meets remaining before SECs | 1 home, 3 road |
Much attention has been paid to the possibility of Alabama missing out on what is essentially a home SEC championship, but looking at these numbers, Arkansas looks to be in worse shape despite being ranked higher. The Razorbacks are locked into counting a 196.400 in its March 17 NQS, by far the lowest guaranteed counting score of any SEC team. They also only have one road meet remaining while Alabama has three. Alabama’s road scores have not been impressive thus far, so the Crimson Tide will need to change that in order to take advantage of those three opportunities.
With these two teams meeting tonight, watch for an Alabama score of 196.550, as that would guarantee a higher ranking than Arkansas on Monday. However, both teams will need to aim for scores significantly higher than that to feel more comfortable going into the final weeks of the regular season.
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Article by Jenna King
Great article! Thanks, Jenna.