The Mount: Week 9 Previews and Predictions

Week nine of the NCAA gymnastics season is packed with high-stakes matchups and crucial opportunities for teams looking to solidify their postseason standings. From a shaken-up Florida squad trying to rebound at home to the newly formatted Big Fours providing intense conference battles, this weekend promises plenty of drama. With injuries, rising contenders, and upset potential in play, these are the must-watch meets that could have major implications for rankings and regional qualification.

Must-Watch Meets

Missouri at Florida

Friday, Feb. 28 at 6 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 83.0% Florida, 17.0% Missouri

Not only did the Gators post a season-low score against Oklahoma, but they also suffered two major setbacks with injuries to Sloane Blakely and Anya Pilgrim. While Blakely appears to be out indefinitely, Pilgrim is expected back this weekend. Nevertheless, either absence raises serious concerns for Florida as it approaches the postseason. The Gators have plenty of depth to fill the gaps, but losing key routines undoubtedly dampens their momentum. This home meet will be a test of resilience—not just for Florida’s lineup depth but also for its ability to regroup and stay composed after a tough outing.

Missouri, on the other hand, is riding high after a season-best performance in its win over Georgia, featuring 10 scores of 9.9 or higher. The Tigers currently rank fourth in the SEC, just behind Florida in the overall NQS standings, and if the Gators struggle again, Missouri is more than capable of capitalizing on the opportunity for an upset. Amari Celestine continues to lead the Tigers as their top all-arounder and could challenge for the title. And for event specialist fans, keep an eye out for another Helen Hu beam 10 watch.

Notes about the predictions: Based on their expected statuses for this weekend, only Sloane Blakely was removed from this week’s predictions. Although Anya Pilgrim is expected back in lineups, if she is not at full strength, Florida’s win chances could drop as low as 77%. Injuries aside, twice in the last three weeks Florida has gone below 48.700 on beam. Doing so again would hand Missouri a 73% chance of pulling off the upset.

Big Fours

Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota at Maryland

Saturday, March 1 at 6 p.m. ET | BTN

Prediction: 64.4% Minnesota, 34.0% Michigan, 1.1% Maryland, 0.5% Illinois

The addition of UCLA and Washington to the Big Ten means the former Big Fives are now the Big Fours, with three quad meets over the course of the weekend. The first of these meets may be the closest fought battle for first, with Michigan and Minnesota going head to head for the win. Michigan was on pace for a huge score last week until a minor beamplosion put pay to its chances, and it needs a 197 or better to keep pace with a surging Minnesota team. While Maryland and Illinois are very unlikely to win this meet, both have regionals qualifications to consider. Illinois is fighting to avoid the play-in round, and with a 194 away score still to drop from its NQS, this meet could be a great opportunity to move up in the rankings. Maryland is currently just on the right side of the regionals bubble, and breaking 196 would greatly help its chances moving forward. The Terps will be competing at home and will be hoping to ride that energy to a season-high. 

Notes about the predictions: The first session of Big Fours looks to be the closest, with Minnesota entering as the favorite with a 64% chance of winning. Minnesota and Michigan will rely heavily on their three-eventers, Mya Hooten and Carly Bauman, to lead them to victory. Without either, the respective team’s chances of winning drop by 10%. Michigan counted a fall on beam last weekend, and doing so again would open the door for either Maryland or Illinois to upset for second, with both having a 20% chance or higher of doing so.

Nebraska, Rutgers, and UCLA at Ohio State

Sunday, March 2 at 5 p.m. ET | BTN

Prediction: 96.5% UCLA, 2.0% Ohio State, 1.4% Nebraska, 0.1% Rutgers

UCLA is favored to run away with this meet. The Bruins have established themselves as a real contender this season, and winning a session of the Big Fours will further cement their new position at the top of the Big Ten. The home team, Ohio State, has struggled in the absence of all-around star Payton Harris. Nebraska is only one spot ahead of Ohio State in the rankings, meaning the battle for second in this session will likely be close. Rutgers shouldn’t be counted out either. The Scarlet Knights had a huge meet last week, scoring 196.275. If they can repeat that performance, they can keep up with Ohio State and Nebraska.

Notes about the predictions: UCLA should not have too much difficulty walking away with a win at this session of Big Fours. However, doing so with a 197.400 or higher gives the Bruins a chance at moving back up to second place in the national rankings. We see a 51% chance of the Bruins reaching that score. The home team, Ohio State, has a 54% chance of taking second, and if we see Payton Harris return to lineups, it could increase those chances to as high as 67%. We give Nebraska a 42% chance of taking second. And while Rutgers only has 4% chance at runner-up, we wouldn’t completely count it out. After nearly posting season highs on every event last weekend, if it can go 49-plus on all four events, its chances of taking second increase to 58%.

Michigan State, Penn State, and Washington at Iowa

Sunday, March 2 at 7 p.m. ET | BTN

Prediction: 93.9% Michigan State, 3.3% Penn State, 2.6% Iowa, 0.2% Washington

The Spartans are coming into this weekend needing a big away number. All of Michigan State’s highest scores have come at home, and a mid-197 here would make a statement. It should win this session comfortably, but on an off day Penn State could be within striking distance. Iowa sits just a pace behind the Nittany Lions and has home arena advantage. Both teams’ lineups have been a bit in flux, so it will be interesting to see who is healthy in the prelude to the postseason. For Washington, a road 196 would be a sturdy goal and put it in the conversation with Iowa.      

Notes about the predictions: Michigan State is a heavy favorite to win this session of Big Fours, but counting a fall would drop its win chances to 64%. The race for second, though, should be interesting, with Penn State the slight favorite over the home team Iowa, with a 51% chance of taking second place. Iowa will be looking to avoid repeating last week’s performance of going sub-49 on all four events. Doing so again would only give it a 2% chance of finishing in second. Washington is less likely to be the runner-up, but beating Penn State and Iowa on bars would give the Huskies a 23% chance at it.

Upset Alert

Alabama at Arkansas

Friday, Feb. 28 at 7:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 58.7% Alabama, 41.4% Arkansas

Time is running out for the Crimson Tide, as Alabama is at the bottom of the SEC standings for the second consecutive week. Since the start of the season, Alabama and Arkansas have been locked in a tight battle to avoid the ninth-place danger zone—the spot no SEC team wants, as it means missing out on the conference championship.

Despite a historic loss to Auburn, Alabama’s season-high score was arguably a more meaningful result than Arkansas’ Metroplex win with a lackluster total. A good score is a good score, and Alabama’s number will carry weight in NQS calculations, especially as the Tide works to build its road average. Meanwhile, Arkansas is struggling badly for road scores, which could be a serious issue down the line. The Razorbacks have shown they can rise to the occasion at home—securing upsets over LSU and Florida—but they’ll need to prove they can put up competitive numbers away from Fayetteville. With both teams battling for position in the SEC standings, this matchup carries major postseason implications.

Notes about the predictions: Arkansas was looking like the favorite to win this meet, but a season-high 197.350 for Alabama plus a middling 196.400 for Arkansas last week gave the edge back to the Crimson Tide for this prediction. Alabama appears to have figured out floor, scoring a 49.5-plus in its last three meets. However, if it drops back to 49.200 or lower, its win chances drop to 35%. More important than the win or loss, though, is that Alabama can guarantee a higher ranking than Arkansas this week with a 196.550-plus, which we predict has a 85% chance of happening.

Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State

Friday, Feb. 28 at 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 85.8% Denver, 12.2% N.C. State, 2.0% Iowa State

Iowa State plays host to the Pioneers and the Wolfpack in a crucial meet for the home team. The Cyclones have yet to put together a complete meet and have scored below 195 two weeks in a row. If they want a chance to qualify for the postseason, they must improve across all events, particularly on beam. Denver and N.C. State will likely battle it out for the top spot at this tri-meet. The Wolfpack hit its first 197 last time out while Denver seems to finally be on the right trajectory after a slow start to its season. Bars will be the must-watch event as it is the Wolfpack’s lowest-ranked event but Denver’s highest. 

Notes about the predictions: Denver appears to have finally figured out its beam struggles, scoring a 49-plus the past three weeks. However, if the Pioneers drop below 49 again, their win chances drop by 20% as well. N.C. State can capitalize on these mistakes by winning the event titles on beam and bars to bring its win chances up to 68%. Based on the current rankings, Iowa State would not make the postseason, but it does have a chance to move up to the all-important 36th position this week. While the result will also rely on other teams’ scores, the Cyclones will want to notch at least a 195.775 to have a chance, which occurs in 26% of our simulations.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week nine go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.

• Stanford gets another crack at California this weekend when the Golden Bears join Oregon State and UC Davis for a quad meet at Maples Pavilion. Earlier in the season, the Cardinal lost the in-state rivalry meet by just one-and-a-half tenths. With two more teams joining in on the fun, this could be an exciting venue for Stanford to get revenge. 
• Rematches are a theme this week, with Cornell competing at Brockport following the exciting Empire State Meet at which Brockport led for multiple rotations. Look for Brockport to try to pull away in the final rotation with its monster floor squad in front of the home crowd. 
• Kentucky comes to a quietly cruising Georgia, ranked in the top 10 this week for the first time since 2020. Kentucky is also ranked in the top 10 and falls just one spot below Georgia, making this a potentially upset-worthy SEC meet. 

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the best you can, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 27-13)

• Missouri at Florida: Florida
• Maryland Big 4: Minnesota
• Ohio State Big 4: UCLA
• Iowa Big 4: Michigan State
• Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State: Denver

Elizabeth (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 30-10)

• Missouri at Florida: Florida
• Maryland Big 4: Minnesota
• Ohio State Big 4: UCLA
• Iowa Big 4: Michigan State
• Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State: Denver

Emily M (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 29-11)

• Missouri at Florida: Florida
• Maryland Big 4: Minnesota
• Ohio State Big 4: UCLA
• Iowa Big 4: Michigan State
• Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State: N.C. State

Jenna (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 29-11)

• Missouri at Florida: Florida
• Maryland Big 4: Minnesota
• Ohio State Big 4: UCLA
• Iowa Big 4: Michigan State
• Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State: Denver

Rebecca (Last Week: 5-0; Overall: 31-9)

• Missouri at Florida: Florida
• Maryland Big 4: Minnesota
• Ohio State Big 4: UCLA
• Iowa Big 4: Michigan State
• Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State: Denver

Week 9 Guest: Mary

• Missouri at Florida: Florida
• Maryland Big 4: Minnesota
• Ohio State Big 4: UCLA
• Iowa Big 4: Michigan State
• Denver and N.C. State at Iowa State: Denver

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News