The Mount: Week 5 Previews and Predictions

As we head into week five of the NCAA gymnastics season, the competition is really heating up! From powerhouse showdowns like Ohio State at Michigan to potential upsets like Denver at Arizona, there’s no shortage of excitement ahead. So, whether you’re tuning in for the action, strategizing for fantasy, or just catching up on how to watch, we’ve got everything you need to enjoy another thrilling week of gymnastics.

Must-Watch Meets

Ohio State at Michigan

Friday, Jan. 31 at 7 p.m. ET | B1G+

Prediction: 63.4% Michigan, 36.6% Ohio State

The Big Ten’s premier rivalry takes center stage in gymnastics this weekend as Michigan and Ohio State face off. After a shaky start to the season, Michigan is gaining momentum, consistently posting scores in the mid-to-high 196s. Ohio State, however, has seen its scoring potential dip with the reduced contributions of key all-arounder Payton Harris. With teams across the country regularly breaking 197 in recent weeks, the pressure is on for both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes to follow suit. 

Notes about the predictions: Beam will be the pivotal event in this matchup, with 75% of simulations showing the team that wins beam wins the meet. Payton Harris’s return is also critical for Ohio State. The all-arounder has been gradually adding events back into her rotation, but if she remains sidelined, Ohio State’s chances of pulling off an upset drop to just 23%. The Buckeyes will need her at full strength to compete at their highest level.

Missouri at LSU

Friday, Jan. 31 at 8:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 91.2% LSU, 8.8% Missouri

LSU is looking to bounce back after a disappointing upset against Arkansas last week. Key misses forced the Tigers to count several sub-9.7 scores, leading to their lowest team total in nearly two years. In contrast, Missouri is riding high, coming off its first 197 of the season in a win against Kentucky. If LSU opens the door with mistakes again this week, Missouri has proven it’s more than capable of seizing the opportunity.

Notes about the predictions: If LSU repeats last week’s errors, especially counting low scores like the two sub-9.7s, Missouri’s chances of winning increase to 55%. However, if Haleigh Bryant returns to the all-around, LSU becomes a heavy favorite, with its win probability soaring to 96%. Keep an eye on the Tigers’ execution to see if they can avoid another upset.

Michigan State at UCLA

Saturday, Feb. 1 at 5:30 p.m. ET | FOX

Prediction: 61.4% UCLA, 38.6% Michigan State

No. 5 vs. No. 6 and potentially a preview of the Big Ten title battle? Count us in! The Spartans have struggled slightly on the road this season, and heading into Pauley Pavilion to take on a red-hot UCLA squad will be no easy task. The Bruins are riding high with three consecutive 197s, meaning Michigan State would need to be nearly flawless to upset the home team. However, if Skyla Schulte returns to more events, the outlook for the Spartans becomes much brighter.

Notes about the predictions: Vault and bars are fairly evenly matched between the two teams, but beam and floor are where the Bruins hold a distinct edge. If Michigan State can pull off wins on both of these events, it would be a strong contender, with an 85% chance of taking the meet. UCLA mistakes could also swing the result—if the Bruins go sub-49 on any event, Michigan State’s win chances increase to over 80%. Watch for a close one!

Florida and Utah at West Virginia

Sunday, Feb. 2 at 2 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 82.6% Florida, 17.3% Utah, 0.1% West Virginia

The first team to hit 198 this season and the current leader of the Big 12 will hit the road to Morgantown to face a Mountaineer squad looking for a boost on home turf. The Gators are coming off an impressive—though somewhat controversial where final scores are concerned—win against Georgia while Utah comfortably handled BYU despite experimenting with lineups due to injuries. This meet will mark the first time since 2013 that the Red Rocks and Gators face off in the regular season, promising an exciting battle. For Utah, this is also a key conference matchup against West Virginia, with the Utes controlling their destiny in the Big 12. A win here would be a major step toward securing their first regular season title in their new conference.

Notes about the predictions: Expect a tight competition between the two visiting powerhouses, with 25% of our simulations predicting a score difference of two-tenths or less. Avery Neff’s injury has lowered Utah’s chances of winning by 5%, but the Utes will need to dominate vault and beam to boost their win probability to 79%. This one could come down to the wire.

California at N.C. State

Sunday, Feb. 2 at 4 p.m ET | ACCN

Prediction: 99.4% California, 0.62% N.C. State

The reigning ACC champion is set to host the title favorite in a key showdown. California, fresh off its first ACC dual meet victory over Clemson, will look to clean up its uncharacteristic beam issues from the meet. The Golden Bears have consistently hovered around 197 since week one, though they’ve only surpassed it once this season. They’ll aim to do so again in this matchup. N.C. State, like California, had one low-scoring performance but has otherwise remained steady. Both teams struggled on beam last week, so it could be the decisive event if this meet stays close.

Notes about the predictions: California is expected to handle this matchup comfortably, with 26% of our simulations predicting a win by more than a point. Even if the Golden Bears count a fall, N.C. State’s chances of winning only increase to 8%, making the former the clear favorite.

Upset Alert

Denver at Arizona

Friday, Jan. 31 at 9 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 69.3% Denver, 30.7% Arizona

A top-20 showdown is heading to Tucson as Denver takes on one of the newest members of the Big 12 in Arizona. Fresh off a road win against their biggest rival, the Wildcats are gaining momentum as the season progresses. Facing Denver will be a challenge, but Arizona has delivered under pressure and has the potential to pull off the upset. Denver, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, particularly on beam over the past few weeks. If the Pioneers want to avoid a road defeat, they’ll need to hit their beam in the final rotation.

Notes about the predictions: Arizona’s impressive week four performance boosted its chances of winning this meet by 9%. Bars will be the pivotal event, as the team that wins bars has won the entire meet in 71% of our simulations.

Western Michigan at Kent State

Sunday, Feb. 2 at 1 p.m. ET | Free live stream

Prediction: 51.2% Kent State, Western Michigan 48.8%

Perennial MAC title contenders Western Michigan and Kent State are set to face off in their first meeting of the season, with both teams eager to prove they’ve moved past early season jitters. The Broncos have only broken the 49 once this season, doing so on bars, which remains their critical event. Kent State, on the other hand, has solidified its reputation on beam with consistent hits from its core lineup and complemented by a historically deep floor group. This in-conference showdown could come down to the final routine.

Notes about the predictions: This is projected to be our closest matchup of the week, with Kent State holding a slight edge due to its home advantage. If this meet were in Michigan, the Broncos would hold the upper hand. Kent State’s strong floor rotation last week is a key factor, but if the team drops below 48.500 there, its chances of winning decrease to 25%.

George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple

Sunday, Feb. 2 at 2 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 47.2% Towson, 36.1% George Washington, 11.1% New Hampshire, 5.5% Temple, 0.1% LIU

The long-awaited EAGL showdown has arrived, as George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson join Temple in Philadelphia for a highly anticipated five-team competition. This meet is shaping up to be a preview of this year’s EAGL championship.

LIU has had a shaky start to the season and will be looking to steady itself this weekend. George Washington has been closely challenging Towson, with lineup standouts like Deana Sherameta, Rachel Katz, Lola Montevago, and Delaney DeHaan consistently delivering strong performances. The outcome could very well hinge on which team can stay steady on beam or post the highest vault score to secure the EAGL win.

Notes about the predictions: Towson is the favorite to win, largely due to its strong bar performances this season. It’s predicted to win bars in 76% of simulations, with most victories coming by half a point or more. If Towson secures the bar title, the other teams will need to win at least two other events to raise their chances of victory to 40% or higher.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week five go by without bringing up these additional areas of interest.

• Arkansas travels to Oklahoma on Friday night, fresh off its upset of LSU. The Razorbacks will get the chance to show their upset was not a fluke when it comes to holding the very top teams’ feet to the fire. They’ll do so on the big stage, too, since the meet is being broadcast on ESPN2.
• It’s already Alabama-Georgia weekend. Cécile Canqueteau-Landi’s first appearance at the rivalry meet is sure to be big, with the teams coming in fairly evenly matched after Alabama faltered last weekend. 
• Illinois State has crept its way up to just outside the top 25. The Redbirds compete at SEMO this weekend and will seek to dominate this MIC matchup. Look for a big vault showdown between Alana Laster and Taylor Ingle.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the best you can, right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 2-3; Overall: 12-8)

• Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan
• Michigan State at UCLA: UCLA
• Florida and Utah at West Virginia: Florida
• Denver at Arizona: Arizona
• George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple: Towson

Elizabeth (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 16-4)

• Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan
• Michigan State at UCLA: Michigan State
• Florida and Utah at West Virginia: Florida
• Denver at Arizona: Arizona
• George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple: Towson

Emily M (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 14-6)

• Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan
• Michigan State at UCLA: UCLA
• Florida and Utah at West Virginia: Florida
• Denver at Arizona: Arizona
• George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple: George Washington

Jenna (Last Week: 2-3; Overall: 14-6)

• Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan
• Michigan State at UCLA: UCLA
• Florida and Utah at West Virginia: Florida
• Denver at Arizona: Denver
• George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple: Towson

Rebecca (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 15-5)

• Ohio State at Michigan: Ohio State
• Michigan State at UCLA: UCLA
• Florida and Utah at West Virginia: Florida
• Denver at Arizona: Arizona
• George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple: Towson

Week 5 Guest: Hope B

• Ohio State at Michigan: Ohio State 
• Michigan State at UCLA: UCLA
• Florida and Utah at West Virginia: Florida
• Denver at Arizona: Arizona
• George Washington, LIU, New Hampshire, and Towson at Temple: Towson

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: Judge’s Inquiry: Routines Where Judges Earned Their Salaries

Article by the editors of College Gym News