The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 5

We’re fully into conference play, and in many cases, there are no clear-cut winners when it comes to regular season titles. With upsets, high scores, and tight meets being the story of the first few weeks of competition, anything can and will happen.

Must-Watch Meets

Florida at Georgia

Friday, Feb. 2 at 7 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 93.92% Florida, 6.08% Georgia

Florida hasn’t been as dominant as usual this season following the departure of standouts Trinity Thomas and Kayla DiCello, but still have more than enough starpower to challenge the injury-plagued Gymdogs on their home turf. This meet may be the Gators’ to lose, but the event titles are up for grabs. Several of Georgia’s underclassmen have posted scores of 9.900 or better, most notably freshman star Lily Smith’s perfect 10 on bars.

Additional notes about the predictions: You’ll want to keep an eye on vault and beam for Georgia this weekend. Winning both of those will give the Bulldogs the advantage with a 55% chance of winning. However, this scenario is pretty unlikely and only occurred in less than 1% of our simulations.

N.C. State at Clemson

Friday, Feb. 2 at 7 p.m. ET | ACCN

Prediction: 71.39% Clemson, 28.61% N.C. State

Clemson returns to its home arena this weekend, and Friday’s matchup will be against an N.C. State Wolfpack team that is on the rise. This meet could be a tight one, with each team scoring in the 196.500 range last weekend, but even though Clemson’s 196.550 was its season-high, the Tigers weren’t at their best on vault and bars. If they can dial in and turn some 9.7s into 9.8s, it will be tough for N.C. State to catch up. But if Clemson falters on any one of its events and if the Wolfpack is able to hit like it did last week, N.C. State may be able to sneak in and snap Clemson’s win streak. 

Additional notes about the predictions: N.C. State’s season high last weekend increased its win chances from 21% to 29%, but keep an eye on floor in particular. Posting the higher score on floor increases N.C. State’s win percentage to 58%. For Clemson, a healthy Lilly Lippeatt will be key. Without her at full strength, Clemson’s win percentage drops to 56%.

Oregon State at Utah

Friday, Feb. 2 at 8 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 77.30% Utah, 22.70% Oregon State

While every dual is important with the Pac-12 regular season championship on the line, this one carries extra weight as both teams were a part of the last two four-way ties for the title. Olympic teammates Grace McCallum and Jade Carey will lead the way for the Utes and Beavers, respectively, while their supporting casts–like Oregon State’s Sophia Espostio and Utah’s Maile O’Keefe–will likely be the difference-makers. The Red Rocks enter as huge favorites, but did last year as well before falling to Oregon State in an upset.

Additional notes about the predictions: The Jade Carey effect is still a large factor in Oregon State’s win chances. With Carey in the all-around, Oregon State’s win percentage increases to 29%, but with Carey just on bars and beam, it drops to 14%. If Carey doesn’t travel, the Beaver’s win percentage drops to only 7%. Keep an eye on the beam rotation, as winning that event Oregon State a 45% chance of winning.

California and Oklahoma at Arizona State

Friday, Feb. 2 at 9 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Insider

Prediction: 77.32% Oklahoma, 22.65% California, 0.03% Arizona State

Did anyone have this matchup consisting of the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams before the season? We sure didn’t. Not only are Oklahoma and California within four tenths of each other in the rankings, but event wise, both are ranked in the top 10 nationally on each event. Needless to say, all eyes will be on them during this tri meet. However, Arizona State can benefit from home floor scoring with a solid performance. Jordan Bowers, Mya Lauzon, and Emily White will be three key all-arounders to watch; all three are ranked in the top 25 nationally.

Additional notes about the predictions: California’s almost one in four chance of winning this meet is the highest we’ve seen for a team going up against Oklahoma so far this season. The Golden Bears are very capable of posting the highest score on any of the events this weekend, but they’ll need to do it on at least two to increase their win chances to 47%.

UCLA at Arizona

Sunday, Feb. 4 at 5 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 87.24% UCLA, 12.76% Arizona

Hold on to your stick pride flags because there are no other teams that can throw a pride meet like UCLA. The Bruins are coming off a successful win against Washington last week by posting a season-high 197.825 to move up to No. 11 nationally. Vault and floor have been consistently looking great for the Bruins, with scores hovering in the mid-49s, but bars and beam have been a bit more troublesome, especially with Emma Malabuyo dipping out for a few weeks. Be on the lookout to see if they continue to test new people in the lineups like they did last week with Alex Irvine on bars.

The Wildcats were able to break into the 197s for just the second time since 2015 to win against Stanford last week with season highs on bars and beam. It may be an uphill battle to challenge UCLA in Pauley, but the Wildcats have the potential to start off with a big total on bars and keep building momentum throughout the meet, particularly if UCLA is having an off day.

Additional notes about the predictions: UCLA has a very strong chance of pulling off the win at home this weekend, but keep an eye on the bars rotation, as a sub-49 score here gives Arizona a 40% chance of winning the meet. In addition, if Emma Malabuyo preparing for the World Cups negatively impacts her performance, UCLA’s win percentage drops down to 80%.

Upset Alert

Iowa State at Boise State

Friday, Feb. 2 at 8 p.m. ET | Free Live Stream

Prediction: 53.71% Iowa State, 46.29% Boise State

In Ashley Miles Greig’s first season as head coach, the Cyclones, currently ranked No. 19, have exceeded expectations by consistently scoring 196-plus and looking to break the 197 barrier for the first time since 2021. Hannah Loyim returning to the all-around and being extremely consistent has contributed toward the rise of the Cyclones and she will look to do the same again Friday. The Broncos have been a team under the radar for a while now, thanks to athletes like Emily Lopez, Courtney Blackson, and Emma Loyim. However, they have lacked consistency in the first three weeks of the season, particularly on bars. After a rest week, they’ll look to maximize their talent and get the big scores that they are capable of achieving against a strong Iowa State team. A fun aside about this matchup: this will be the first time the Loyim twins have competed against each other in college, so watch for some fun reunion content!

Additional notes about the predictions: Prior to last weekend’s meets, Boise State was predicted to win this matchup, but Iowa State’s third straight 196-plus helped give them the edge in the predictions. Boise State stars Emily Lopez and Courtney Blackson will be large factors here. Without one of them at full strength, the Broncos’ win chances drop to 30%.

Arkansas at LSU

Friday, Feb. 2 at 8 p.m. ET | SECN+

Prediction: 84.74% LSU, 15.26% Arkansas

Arkansas is off to a fantastic start, finding itself ranked fourth in the SEC and seventh nationally after scoring over 197 in all three of its meets so far. The Razorbacks have already notched a tie and a win against Alabama and Auburn, respectively, and will face another big dog (or, rather, Tiger) in week five— No. 5 LSU. The Tigers followed up a 198 in the PMAC with a narrow loss to Missouri last Friday after scrambling to drop falls on bars and floor. The Razorbacks have already proven capable of upsetting a higher-ranked home team, so the Tigers will need to stay sharp through all four rotations.  

Additional notes about the predictions: If Arkansas can post the higher score on beam this weekend, its win percentage increases to 38%. If it can also post the higher score on a second event, then it has a 60-plus percent chance of winning. Once again, counting a fall on beam will be harmful to LSU’s win chances, lowering it to just 45%.

Kentucky at Alabama

Friday, Feb. 2 at 8:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 50.94% Alabama, 49.06% Kentucky

Both Kentucky and Alabama have positioned themselves as early favorites for the postseason after upsetting conference rivals in week four. The Wildcats posted their highest score in program history—including a historic pair of perfect 10s from Makenzie Wilson on vault and Raena Worley on floor—to overtake LSU in the rankings. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide ended the Gators’ 20-meet home winning streak, thanks in part to a perfect 10 from Lilly Hudson on vault. Even factoring in Alamaba’s home court advantage, this one’s too close to call. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Kentucky’s record-breaking week four performance changed this meet from a 60/40 matchup to a 50/50 nail biter. Twenty percent of our simulations came down to less than a tenth of a point. To maximize its chances of winning, Kentucky will want to post the higher score on bars, which increases its win percentage to 73%. Raena Worley and Luisa Blanco will be the key contributors for their respective teams. Without either of them at full strength lowers their team’s win percentage to about 30%.

Michigan State at Michigan

Sunday, Feb. 4 at 4 p.m. ET | BTN+

Prediction: 53.79% Michigan, 46.21% Michigan State

Don’t look now, but these in-state conference foes are tied at No. 13 in the national rankings with 196.975 averages. Both had a bit of a slow start to the year but have really settled in and are undefeated in the conference. The Wolverines’ highest score came at home, led by Sierra Brooks’ all-around record. The Spartans are coming off of Nikki Smith’s perfect 10.0, the program’s first on floor. This one could be extremely close and a preview of half of the Big Ten championship night session.

Additional notes about the predictions: This meet could go either way depending on several factors. Michigan State will want to win at least two events to increase its win percentage to 69%, with there being a one in three chance of that happening on vault and bars. In addition, if Michigan goes sub-49 on vault again, Michigan State’s win percentage increases to 77%. We’ll also want to see Sierra Brooks at full strength because without her, Michigan’s win percentage drops to just 26%.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week five go by without bringing up these additional points.

• Western Michigan travels to face Eastern Michigan in what could be this week’s “don’t judge a book by it’s cover” dual meet. The Broncos have yet to find the success that made them fan favorites last season while the Eagles are fresh off a high 195 in a conference tri-meet win.
• SEMO and Illinois State go head to head for a mid-week matchup, after both showing a strong first month of the season. If “clean safe routines guaranteed to stick” are your cup of tea, keep an eye out for Illinois State: Its compositions are just as exciting as ever, and is the last non-Power 5 team standing without having counted a fall. 
• Nebraska and Iowa will fight for bragging rights as the Big Ten’s stronger corn-fueled gymnastics school, and they’ll have to do so by testing their depth. Each team is now without a major contributor from the first stretch of the season, as Adeline Kenlin and Lucy Stanhope are both recovering from lower body injuries. 

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 2-3; Overall: 12-8)

• N.C. State at Clemson: Clemson
• Iowa State at Boise State: Iowa State
• Arkansas at LSU: LSU
• Kentucky at Alabama: Alabama
• Nebraska at Iowa: Nebraska
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan State

Claire (Last Week: 1-4; Overall: 12-8)

• N.C. State at Clemson: Clemson
• Iowa State at Boise State: Iowa State
• Arkansas at LSU: LSU
• Kentucky at Alabama: Kentucky
• Nebraska at Iowa: Iowa
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan State

Elizabeth (Last Week: 2-3; Overall: 15-5)

• N.C. State at Clemson: Clemson
• Iowa State at Boise State: Iowa State
• Arkansas at LSU: LSU
• Kentucky at Alabama: Alabama
• Nebraska at Iowa: Nebraska
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan

Emily M (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 14-6)

• N.C. State at Clemson: Clemson
• Iowa State at Boise State: Iowa State
• Arkansas at LSU: LSU
• Kentucky at Alabama: Kentucky
• Nebraska at Iowa: Nebraska
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan

Rebecca (Last Week: 1-4; Overall: 10-10)

• N.C. State at Clemson: Clemson
• Iowa State at Boise State: Iowa State
• Arkansas at LSU: LSU
• Kentucky at Alabama: Kentucky
• Nebraska at Iowa: Nebraska
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan

Week 5 Guest: Emily L

• N.C. State at Clemson: Clemson
• Iowa State at Boise State: Iowa State
• Arkansas at LSU: LSU
• Kentucky at Alabama: Kentucky
• Nebraska at Iowa: Iowa
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan State

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: The Dismount: Week 4

Article by the editors of College Gym News