The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 4

Will the scores this week be just as insane as week three? It’s anyone’s guess. But with a number of stellar matchups on the schedule, only time will tell. The rankings are still looking a bit wild. Let’s see how things play out as week four gets underway.

Must-Watch Meets

Denver at Oklahoma

Friday, Jan. 26 at 8 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 98.15% Oklahoma, 1.85% Denver

A few short days after facing each other in Denver, the Pioneers travel to the Lloyd Noble Center as Oklahoma opens its home slate with a Big 12 dual. Both teams will be operating on a short turnaround, so stamina will be key in this matchup. Two former five-star recruits and potential freshmen of the year candidates will face off in Hannah Scheible and Madison Ulrich, while the all-around battle will be fierce from start to finish. Jordan Bowers, Katherine Levasseur, Faith Torrez, and Jessica Hutchinson all scored within one-and-a-half tenths of each other at the Denver quad last week while Audrey Davis and Ulrich weren’t too far behind. Keep an eye out for the beam rotation in particular; Oklahoma used beam to separate itself from the other teams in Denver while the Pioneers will be looking for redemption after counting three scores in the 9.700 range. 

Additional notes about the predictions: It will once again be tough for Denver to beat Oklahoma this week, with less than a 2% chance of it occurring. Denver’s best shot will be if Oklahoma counts a fall on beam, which brings its win percentage up to 23%.

Alabama at Florida

Friday, Jan. 26 at 7 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 51.41% Florida, 48.59% Alabama

The Gators have gotten off to a more measured start than previous seasons, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing given the number of underclassmen featured in their lineups. Surprisingly, bars has been the team’s most capricious event thus far: The lineup bounced back from a sub-49 in week one with a much more “Florida” 49.400—but it was still a quarter-tenth shy of last year’s season low. Meanwhile, Alabama opened the season with an impressive 49.525 on bars and only improved on that score in weeks two and three. Given how closely the teams have performed on the other three events up to this point, bars is shaping up to be the deciding factor at this meet. 

Additional notes about the predictions: This matchup is about as close as they come, with 20% of our simulations coming down to less than a tenth difference in the scores. The key here for both teams will be their stars: Leanne Wong for Florida and Luisa Blanco for Alabama. Either of the two not being at full strength knocks their team’s win percentage down to ~33%. Gabby Gladieux, who was out last week with a minor injury, could also make an impact here. If she remains out this week, Alabama’s win percentage drops to 42%.

LSU at Missouri

Friday, Jan. 26 at 8:30 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 87.58% LSU, 12.42% Missouri

This clash of the Tigers will likely be a lot closer than the current rankings suggest. If LSU shows up at the Hearnes Center firing on all cylinders like it did in week three, it’ll have a decided advantage over home team Missouri. However, given that last week’s 198.125 performance was nearly a point higher than its other two totals and earned at the PMAC, that’s a big if. Save nervy bars and beam rotations at Alabama in week two, Missouri’s scores have been remarkably consistent. It’ll also have home floor advantage. If Alabama versus Florida comes down to bars, this one’s coming down to beam; both teams have posted at least one sub-49 total, as well as one over 49.400. From lead-off to anchor, LSU’s individual season highs best Missouri while Missouri’s season averages best LSU. This one could come down to the wire.

Additional notes about the predictions: The question for this meet is whether LSU’s beam success continues away from home. If LSU counts a fall again on beam, this meet becomes a 50/50 matchup.

Oregon State at California

Saturday, Jan. 27 at 5 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Bay Area, Pac-12 Oregon

Prediction: 88.78% California, 11.22% Oregon State

Already knocking on the door of 198 consistently, No. 2 California hopes to finally hit the mark in its home opener, hosting No. 16 Oregon State in a crucial Pac-12 dual meet. The Golden Bears won their conference opener last weekend while this will be the first for the Beavers, as each has been a part of the last two four-way ties for the regular season title the last two seasons (yes, you read that right). Jade Carey has made an appearance in every meet so far this season for Oregon State but has yet to compete in the all-around, which may be necessary if Oregon State wants to upset California and its pair of all-arounders—Mya Lauzon and eMjae Frazier—who’ve both already tied the program record this season.

Additional notes about the predictions: Oregon State is going to hope Jade Carey makes the trip with it to Berkeley this weekend. Without her, its win percentage drops to only 2%. However, even if Carey returns to the AA, Oregon State only has a 16% chance of winning this meet. Mya Lauzon continues to be a star for California this season, but if she doesn’t show up at full strength, the Bears’ win percentage decreases to 79%.

Upset Alert

Clemson at North Carolina

Friday, Jan. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET | ACCNx

Prediction: 95.56% Clemson, 4.44% North Carolina

This week marks the second of ACC in-conference play, and it starts with Clemson at North Carolina. It will be Clemson’s first road meet of its inaugural season, and the Tigers are most likely looking at another win. Clemson did have an off day on bars and beam against Pittsburgh, and if those mistakes don’t get corrected, it could give the Tar Heels a chance at sneaking in and stealing the win. But for that to happen, North Carolina has its own missteps to fix. It had three sub-9.8 scores on bars last week against its in-state rivals, and lineups will look even more uncertain now after the potential injury to superstar Lali Dekanoidze. But anything can happen in gymnastics! If the Tar Heels can fix last week’s mistakes and capitalize on any potential mistakes from Clemson, we may have an upset on our hands. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Looking at single events, UNC’s best chance of winning this meet is by posting the higher score on floor, which increases its win percentage to 26%. However, if it can also post the higher score on either bars or beam, then it becomes the favorite to win with a 63% chance.

Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s

Saturday, Jan. 27 at 7 p.m ET | Paid live stream

Prediction: 88.06% Lindenwood, 11.94% Texas Woman’s

This matchup has a rich and colorful history: Numerous conference and national titles have been decided between these two. Lindenwood, fresh off a program record 197.075 in Tennessee last week, has been the stronger team for the last few years and is once again a favorite this year. Texas Woman’s, however, hasn’t competed at home yet this season, and Kitty Magee Arena loves its Pioneers. If Texas Woman’s is going to have a chance here, it’ll take consistency, great bars, and awesome home arena energy.

Additional notes about the predictions: Scores from last week’s Tennessee Collegiate Classic give Lindenwood a strong chance of winning this meet. Removing those scores as outliers from our model, though, lowers Lindenwood’s win chances to 78%. Also be on the lookout for TWU’s bars rotation. Posting the higher score on bars gives the Pioneers the advantage with a 54% chance of winning.

Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois

Sunday, Jan. 28 at 3 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 53.35% Central Michigan, 32.39% Northern Illinois, 14.26% Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan will go into this meet as the favorite but not by as much as it may have been if this tri meet was in the first two weeks of the season. It’s on the brink of its first 196 for 2024 but will need to conquer beam to do so—the only event the Chippewas have yet to go over 49 on. Look to Luciana Alvarado-Reid as a strong all-around presence, likely to battle it out with Eastern Michigan’s Raisa Boris, and Northern Illinois’ Isabella Sissi. Boris is poised to help the Eagles most on bars, the team’s weak point through January. Beam will again be a key indicator of how the meet plays out, with it having great scoring potential for Eastern Michigan thanks to the likes of Jacquelyn Patterson and Ella Chemotti. Northern Illinois has been steadily improving each week, with freshmen Dawsyn Sallee and Isabella Ross making names for themselves amongst veteran-heavy lineups.

Additional notes about the predictions: Northern Illinois is another team benefitting from the high scoring at the Tennessee Collegiate Classic last week. Removing these scores as outliers from our model drops NIU’s win percentage down to only 18%. Eastern Michigan’s best chance of winning this meet is by posting the highest scores on at least two events, the most likely pairing being beam and floor.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week four go by without bringing up these additional points.

• Don’t count out Arizona State as it faces Utah—the Sun Devils, led by fifth-year Hannah Scharf, have reminded gymnastics fans as early as week one that the team’s strength is rising to any given occasion. Breakout beamer Kayla Lee will be one to watch while facing the Utes, who are currently tasked with deciding to sub into bars and beam while Amelie Morgan is overseas. 
• Both Michigan and Nebraska are settling into their rhythm as they continue in-conference play this weekend. Separated by less than a tenth in their team’s vault and floor averages, all eyes will be on their proverbial sixth woman on bars and beam. 
• Washington travels to face UCLA and will bring beam as its not-so-secret ace up its sleeve. The Huskies rank in the top 20 nationally on this event, outpacing the otherwise heavily favored Bruins one month into the season. 
• We’ll be treated to a sibling battle in Kent on Sunday as the Golden Flashes host West Virginia, with the Mountaineers’ Emma Wehry facing older sister Grace Wehry at this dual. Both teams are known for their depth on leg events, but West Virginia will fight an uphill battle having yet to reach 49 on any event this year.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 10-5)

• Alabama at Florida: Alabama
• Clemson at North Carolina: Clemson
• Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s: Lindenwood
• CMU & EMU at NIU: Central Michigan
• La Crosse at Whitewater: Whitewater

Claire (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 11-4)

• Alabama at Florida: Florida
• Clemson at North Carolina: Clemson
• Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s: Lindenwood
• CMU & EMU at NIU: CMU
• La Crosse at Whitewater: Whitewater

Elizabeth (Last Week: 5-0; Overall:13-2)

• Alabama at Florida: Florida
• Clemson at North Carolina: Clemson
• Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s: Lindenwood
• CMU & EMU at NIU: Central Michigan
• La Crosse at Whitewater: La Crosse

Emily M (Last Week: 4-1; Overall: 11-4)

• Alabama at Florida: Alabama
• Clemson at North Carolina: Clemson
• Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s: Lindenwood
• CMU & EMU at NIU: Central Michigan
• La Crosse at Whitewater: La Crosse

Rebecca (Last Week: 3-2; Overall: 9-6)

• Alabama at Florida: Florida
• Clemson at North Carolina: Clemson
• Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s: Lindenwood
• CMU & EMU at NIU: Central Michigan
• La Crosse at Whitewater: Whitewater

Week 4 Guest: Peri

• Alabama at Florida: Alabama
• Clemson at North Carolina: Clemson
• Lindenwood at Texas Woman’s: Lindenwood
• CMU & EMU at NIU: Central Michigan
• La Crosse at Whitewater: Whitewater

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News