With two weeks left of competition before regionals selection, the postseason field is beginning to take shape. Who has likely secured their position and who has work left to do? We’re breaking down every bubble team’s qualification scenario below.
Regionals Projection: Teams
Here are the projected regionals placements if the current standings were to hold, attempting to take geography into account.
| Norman | Pittsburgh | Denver | Los Angeles |
| 1. Oklahoma | 2. Michigan | 3. Florida | 4. Utah |
| 8. Alabama | 7. California | 6. LSU | 5. UCLA |
| 9. Auburn | 10. Michigan State | 11. Denver | 12. Kentucky |
| 16. Arkansas | 15. Ohio State | 14. Arizona State | 13. Oregon State |
| 19. Minnesota | 21. Maryland | 17. Missouri | 18. Georgia |
| 22. Illinois | 28. Western Michigan | 22. Southern Utah | 20. Stanford |
| 24. Iowa | 30. Towson | 25. Washington | 26. Nebraska |
| 27. N.C. State | 34. Ball State | 29. Arizona | 31. Boise State |
| 33. BYU | 35. West Virginia | 36. North Carolina | 32. San Jose State |
Teams in bold are geographically tied to that regional due to being ranked outside of the top 16 and located within 400 miles of the host. BYU could technically switch with Boise State in this projection, as both the Norman and Los Angeles regionals end on Saturday, but we kept BYU in Norman due to its lower ranking than Boise State. All of the other non-seeded teams were placed within the bracket in an attempt to keep in-conference pairings to a minimum, but these are certainly not set in stone. Due to the high number of teams automatically allocated to the Pittsburgh regional, it seems likely that a top-28 team will again find itself participating in the first round; using this week’s rankings, that team would be No. 27 N.C. State.
Bubble Watch: Teams
Road to Nationals debuted its “Regionals Locked In” chart this week, so we’ll be taking a look at every team who is not at least “likely locked” or “likely out” of a regionals berth. These teams range from No. 26 Nebraska to No. 43 Pittsburgh.
Scores in bold can no longer be replaced, and crossed out scores are the current season high (which does not factor into NQS). Scores with an asterisk are replaceable this coming weekend. If a team has two meets this weekend, the max NQS is calculated using its current season high for both meets.
No. 26 Nebraska
| Current NQS | 196.410 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.925, 196.850, 195.800* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.750 (19th) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Nebraska put up a season high on Friday to continue its rise up the rankings. While the Cornhuskers are still counting a sub-196 score at the moment, scores appear to be trending in the right direction, with the top three scores of the season coming in the last three meets. If they can continue the trend, a regionals berth is very likely.
No. 27 N.C. State
| Current NQS | 196.380 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.475, 196.275, 196.125* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.600 (25th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
N.C. State is currently in the unenviable position of being the top-28 team most likely to be forced to compete in the play-in round, so a rankings increase would be most welcome for the Wolfpack this week. With several low-196 scores still counting toward its NQS and a high over 197.000, another season high this weekend would go a long way toward securing a first-round bye.
No. 28 Western Michigan
| Current NQS | 196.305 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.725, 195.925, 195.525* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.620 (24th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
Western Michigan put up the highest score in program history at home on Saturday to climb four spots in the rankings. With two sub-196 road scores still factoring into the team’s NQS and two road meets remaining, the Broncos are poised to remain within regional qualification range, provided they can replicate some of their success at home on the road.
No. 29 Arizona
| Current NQS | 196.300 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.675, 196.475, 196.375 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.625 (22nd) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Arizona put up a season high road score on Friday, but slid back one place in the rankings. With two chances this week to drop its last counting sub-196 score, the Wildcats stand a good chance of making their way back up in the standings.
No. 30 Towson
| Current NQS | 196.270 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.450, 196.350, 196.050* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.545 (25th) |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
Having exceeded the 196 mark at just one of its two meets last week, Towson was unable to capitalize on its double header to raise its NQS by a significant enough margin to climb the ranks and found itself falling three places instead. The Tigers will be on the hunt for stronger performances in this week’s double header to reclaim a top 28 ranking.
No. 31 Boise State
| Current NQS | 196.225 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.500, 196.325, 195.700* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.450 (26th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
Boise State notched a season high to drop an earlier score in the 195s and climb three positions in the rankings, but with a sub-196 score still factoring into their NQS, the Broncos will need to secure another score over 196 to feel more confident in their chance of making an appearance at regionals.
No. 32 San Jose State
| Current NQS | 196.215 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.175, 196.150, 195.850* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.370 (28th) |
| Road Meets remaining remaining | 2 road |
San Jose State has scored over 196.000 in four consecutive meets, and that trend will need to continue in order to maintain its status in the top 36 over the remaining two weeks before postseason.
No. 33 BYU
| Current NQS | 196.200 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.450, 196.350, 196.150 |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.415 (26th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
With a mid-195 still to drop, BYU can make a leap of up to seven places in the rankings with a season high performance this week. But with its season high coming over a month ago, the Cougars need to start picking the pace back up to secure a regionals berth.
No. 34 Ball State
| Current NQS | 196.190 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.300, 196.100*, 196.050* |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.380 (27th) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Ball State has two meets this weekend but very little spread in its current NQS-counting scores. While it’s technically possible for the Cardinals to rise to 27th or higher in the rankings before conference championships, setting a new season high would allow more breathing room in holding off the teams currently chasing them in the rankings.
No. 35 West Virginia
| Current NQS | 196.165 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.625, 195.675*, 195.575* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.845 (19th) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
West Virginia was two road meets this weekend with two mid-195 road scores remaining to be dropped from its NQS calculation, leaving little room for error. A season high score at home on Sunday was a nice boost to its postseason prospects, but there is still work to do to secure a regionals appearance.
No. 36 North Carolina
| Current NQS | 196.105 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.275, 195.975, 195.700* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.260 (31st) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
While North Carolina is currently safe in the top 36, that position is by no means secure. The Tar Heels have two sub-196 scores to drop and two attempts to do it, so there is no room for error if they want to maintain their position inside the regionals field.
No. 37 Penn State
| Current NQS | 196.080 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.100, 195.875, 195.525* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.350 (28th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
Penn State put up a strong 196.875, but still fell four spots in the rankings as quite a few other teams recorded season highs this week. That said, with the opportunity to replace two sub-196 scores still on the table, the Nittany Lions can keep themselves in contention for regionals –– but only if they can figure out how to replicate their home success on the road.
No. 38 George Washington
| Current NQS | 195.855 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.400, 196.075, 195.550* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season highs this weekend | 196.290 (30th) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
There is a bit of a gap in NQS between No. 37 Penn State and No. 38 George Washington, but GWU has the advantage of having a double meet weekend which can help to close the gap. However, the Colonials have three sub-196 scores to drop in its three remaining meets, so in order to make the regionals field they will have to be at their best in every outing.
No. 39 Central Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.835 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.250, 195.600, 195.425* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.050 (38th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
Central Michigan is the first team on this list who cannot make the top 36 this week, but luckily there are two weeks remaining before the regionals field is determined. It is also the highest ranked team that is guaranteed to count a sub-196 score toward its final NQS, a significant disadvantage. In order to overcome that obstacle, the Chippewas will likely need to score in the mid-196 range over its remaining two meets to have a chance at making the postseason.
No. 40 Kent State
| Current NQS | 195.790 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.925, 195.725, 195.625* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.870 (38th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 home |
After posting a season high this week, Kent State was able to raise its NQS, but was unable to move up the rankings. With just four tenths separating its season high from its current lowest counting score, the Golden Flashes will need to see huge improvements in their final two meets of the season to have a shot at a spot at regionals.
*Road to Nationals marks the Golden Flashes as likely out of regionals contention, but we still included the team in our projections this week.
No. 41 UC Davis
| Current NQS | 195.730 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.475, 195.300, 195.250* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.030 (38th) |
| Meets remaining | 2 road |
UC Davis is guaranteed to count a 195.450 toward its final NQS, but with two mid-196 scores to its resume, the Aggies are still alive in the postseason race. It will take two more mid-196 scores in its final two meets, to stay in the race, but at least the Aggies have proven they are capable of that score both at home and on the road.
No. 42 Rutgers
| Current NQS | 195.695 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.225, 195.225, 195.150 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.860 (38th) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Rutgers will have to wait until the Big Ten Championships to have an opportunity to drop the 195.150 currently counting toward its NQS, but in the meantime it’s absolutely necessary that the Scarlet Knights score over 196.000 at home this weekend in order to drop the 195.550. Rutgers’ postseason chances are small but not impossible.
No. 43 Pittsburgh
| Current NQS | 195.655 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.125, 195.775, 195.275 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.935 (38th) |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 1 road |
Pittsburgh is hosting a regional this weekend but the chances of making an appearance as a team at the regional are slim at this point. The Panthers are locked into counting two sub-196 scores, but if they can add two more mid-196 scores they will have a chance at making the field.
Regionals Projection: Individuals
If regionals were to start tomorrow, the following gymnasts would qualify as all-arounders. Note that individuals from No. 27 N.C. State are included in these lists since they would likely be competing in the play-in round according to the current bracket projection. Similarly, individuals from No. 28 Western Michigan and No. 30 Towson are not included in these lists.
Projected All-Around Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Emily Shepard | #27 N.C. State | 39.380 |
| Lauren Macpherson | #32 San Jose State | 39.370 |
| Hannah Joyner | #42 Rutgers | 39.365 |
| Deja Chambliss | #38 George Washington | 39.345 |
| Hallie Copperwheat | #43 Pittsburgh | 39.330 |
| Julia Knower | #36 North Carolina | 39.285 |
| Ava Piedrahita | #37 Penn State | 39.255 |
| Hannah Demers | #39 Central Michigan | 39.185 |
| Rachel Decavitch | #40 Kent State | 39.180 |
| Hannah Ruthberg | #34 Ball State | 39.170 |
| Isabella Sissi | #45 Northern Illinois | 39.165 |
| Victoria Henry | #34 Ball State | 39.150 |
Syd Morris of LIU and Malia Hargrove of Arizona are both only one all-around performance away from earning an NQS. If they can perform at their usual level this weekend, they will likely find their way into regionals qualification position. Hargrove hasn’t competed all-around at Arizona’s most recent meets, but with a double meet weekend ahead, she may get another opportunity. The most likely to be knocked out should Morris and Hargrove qualify are Sissi and Ruthberg, as neither has any particularly low scores left to drop, although Ball State has a double meet weekend ahead that will give Ruthberg an extra opportunity to maintain her position.
Projected Vault Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Suki Pfister | #34 Ball State | 9.900 |
| Malia Hargrove | #29 Arizona | 9.890 |
| Lali Dekanoidze | #36 North Carolina | 9.875 |
| Chloe Negrete | #27 N.C. State | 9.875 |
| Jaudai Lopes | #32 San Jose State | 9.870 |
| Keanna Abraham | #41 UC Davis | 9.870 |
| Emily Lopez | #31 Boise State | 9.865 |
| Kylie Eaquinto | #33 BYU | 9.860 |
| Emily Leese | #42 Rutgers | 9.855 |
| Sydney Benson | #33 BYU | 9.850 |
| Kaia Parker | #44 Iowa State | 9.850 |
| Adriana Popp | #31 Boise State | 9.850 |
| Abbie Pierson | #35 West Virginia | 9.845 |
| Kendall Whitman | #38 George Washington | 9.840 |
| Kennedy Duke | #43 Pittsburgh | 9.840 |
| Megan Ray | #41 UC Davis | 9.840 |
Fisk’s Morgan Price (9.875) is well within the qualification range, but it’s unclear if Fisk is eligible to qualify individuals into regionals at this time, so she has been omitted from the standings. Should she be eligible, Ray would miss out on a tie break. Next in line to qualify is Kaya Forbes (North Carolina; 9.835), Katrina Mendez-Abolnik (Bowling Green; 9.825), Ashley Glynn (Temple; 9.835) and Jessica Johanson (Penn State; 9.835). Mendez-Abolnik has the highest high and the lowest low of this group and has the most opportunity to move up this weekend. Conversely, every one of Johanson’s counting scores are a 9.85 or a 9.825, so there’s not much room for growth there. Whitman is in a similar situation, so should someone move up the rankings, she would be the most likely to fall out of contention.
Projected Bars Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Lali Dekanoidze | #36 North Carolina | 9.950 |
| Mara Titarsolej | #46 LIU | 9.945 |
| Emily Lopez | #31 Boise State | 9.935 |
| Courtney Blackson | #31 Boise State | 9.915 |
| Cassidy Rushlow | #37 Penn State | 9.900 |
| Anyssa Alvarado | #33 BYU | 9.895 |
| Natalie Hamp | #45 Northern Illinois | 9.895 |
| Emma Milne | #32 San Jose State | 9.880 |
| Libby Garfoot | #38 George Washington | 9.875 |
| Kylie Gorgenyi | #48 New Hampshire | 9.875 |
| Alyssa Al-Ashari | #45 Northern Illinois | 9.875 |
| Lindsey Hunter | #33 BYU | 9.865 |
| Natalia Pawlak | #43 Pittsburgh | 9.865 |
| Avery Balser | #42 Rutgers | 9.865 |
| Megan Teter | #34 Ball State | 9.860 |
| Brianna Brooks | #47 Utah State | 9.860 |
Luciana Alvarado-Reid (Central Michigan; 9.855), Elizabeth Culton (North Carolina; 9.855) and Isabelle Schaefer (North Carolina; 9.855) are currently on the outside looking in. Schaefer has the most room to move up the rankings, but most of the athletes currently favored to qualify have even more room to improve, so it will be an uphill battle to break into this group. With a hit routine this weekend, Anna Bramblett (BYU, 9.850) could find herself in qualification position as she has quite a bit more range in her counting scores than those ranked above her. Should Syd Morris (LIU) not qualify through the all-around, one more usable score on bars could put them in a possible qualification position as well.
Projected Beam Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Elease Rollins | #33 BYU | 9.910 |
| Chloe Negrete | #27 N.C. State | 9.890 |
| Ella Chemotti | #55 Eastern Michigan | 9.885 |
| Ilka Juk | #46 LIU | 9.880 |
| Jessica Castles | #29 Arizona | 9.875 |
| Emma Loyim | #31 Boise State | 9.875 |
| Alyssa Al-Ashari | #45 Northern Illinois | 9.875 |
| Emma Milne | #32 San Jose State | 9.875 |
| Sofi Sullivan | #47 Utah State | 9.875 |
| Adriana Popp | #31 Boise State | 9.870 |
| Reyna Garvey | #43 Pittsburgh | 9.870 |
| Emily Lopez | #31 Boise State | 9.865 |
| Amber Koeth | #54 Sacramento State | 9.865 |
| Robyn Kelley | #48 New Hampshire | 9.865 |
| Sirena Linton | #29 Arizona | 9.855 |
| Alyssa Worthington | #48 New Hampshire | 9.855 |
Currently missing out on qualification are Brooke Donabedian (Temple; 9.85) and Elizabeth Culton (North Carolina; 9.85). Of these two, Culton is the most likely to move up, but Taylor Waldo (Ball State; 9.845) still has a 9.750 to drop and a double meet weekend ahead. She could jump both of them in the standings with a good performance this weekend. A possible spoiler to this group is Elena Deets of Arizona. She needs two more scores to earn an NQS, but has three remaining meets to do it. She has yet to score below 9.85 this season. Linton is the most likely to fall out of qualification standing should anyone move up, but she has two opportunities this weekend to try to hold her spot.
Projected Floor Qualifiers
| Gymnast | School | Current NQS |
| Maddie Diab | #44 Iowa State | 9.930 |
| Chloe Negrete | #27 N.C. State | 9.920 |
| Emily Holmes-Hackerd | #35 West Virginia | 9.915 |
| Jada Mazury | #32 San Jose State | 9.910 |
| Brooke Donabedian | #49 Temple | 9.910 |
| Alyssa Guns | #40 Kent State | 9.905 |
| Kendall Whitman | #38 George Washington | 9.905 |
| Malia Hargrove | #29 Arizona | 9.890 |
| Karlie Franz | #40 Kent State | 9.890 |
| Emmalise Nock | #45 Northern Illinois | 9.890 |
| Renee Schugman | #49 Temple | 9.890 |
| Courtney Blackson | #31 Boise State | 9.885 |
| Emily Leese | #42 Rutgers | 9.880 |
| Lauren Rutherford | #27 N.C. State | 9.875 |
| Sidney Washington | #43 Pittsburgh | 9.875 |
| Gayla Griswold | #53 Lindenwood | 9.870 |
Keanna Abraham (UC Davis; 9.870), Megan Ray (UC Davis; 9.870) and Abbie Pierson (West Virginia; 9.870) miss out on qualification due to a tie break here, but Abraham and Ray both have considerably more room to improve their NQS and could find themselves pushing Griswold out of contention. Ellen Collins (West Virginia) is currently one score short of having an NQS, but she has a double meet weekend coming up and should be considered a qualification threat as well.
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Article by Jenna King, Mariah Dawson, Dara Tan, Emma Hammerstrom and Elizabeth Grimsley
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The “regional” nonsense has to end.
NC State might have to do a play in for a 2nd time and Towson gets a bye because of regional placements. That is completely unfair.
Now that the regions are down from 6 to 4 there is no real logistical reason for placing teams regionally.
All teams are seeded due to NQS rankings so distribute them accordingly.