NCAA Prelims Subdivision One Analysis

After a long season that seemed to fly by, the national championships are finally upon us. Twelve teams are set to duke it out for six spots in the finals. While neither subdivision looks straightforward as to which teams will qualify, the first session will have a more difficult road ahead of them.

This session is really all about the third qualifying spot. LSU and Florida should make the finals barring disaster. (Although we know that’s a real possibility. See LSU’s 2015 preliminary beam rotation.) But going off the expectation that two spots are all but shored up, there’s one remaining position for four teams and three realistic qualifiers.Georgia, Auburn, Stanford and Minnesota each have posted scores in the 197s this year with some being more legit than others. While Minnesota will have the hardest time qualifying — more than one team above it in the rankings will have to falter — it is a possibility if the gymnasts are on that day and/or the judges are on crack like at the Big 10 qualifier competition.

More realistically, the third spot will go to the Gymdogs, Tigers or Cardinal. Georgia has the highest potential, having scored a 197.525 once this season. However, beam still remains an issue. The team counted a 9.6 at regionals, which can’t happen if it wants to get back to the Super Six for the first time since 2014.

Both Auburn and Stanford topped Georgia twice this year, though, in Athens and at away competitions. How the Gymdogs fair will really come down to hitting beam and whether Brittany Rogers has one of her good bars days. Having Sydney Snead back from a sore back will be crucial as well as her scoring potential on at least bars is higher than back-up Lauren Johnson.

Auburn is looking to make its second-consecutive Super Six after making history last year. The records didn’t stop this year as the Tigers defeated Alabama for the first time since the dinosaurs were around. While most people expected the Auburn to take a step back in 2016 after losing strong beamers like Megan Walker, that hasn’t been the case. This team has been the most consistent of the trio and has the highest probability of going through to finals.

But as we’ve learned all too well, never count out Stanford. The scoring potential is higher than Auburn and the Cardinal has beaten Georgia twice this season and tied Auburn at regionals. Elizabeth Price and Ivana Hong are the one-two punch the team needs to advance. With the McNair twins and Taylor Rice as strong supporting members, the Cardinal is a threat in this session. Remember last year when it annihilated the floor rotation, which is supposed to be one of its weaker events, on its way to qualifying to the Super Six? Do you also remember that little factoid that the Cardinal would have WON the national title had it repeated that floor performance on night two? Never underestimate Stanford. Just don’t do it.

So basically, the competition will be a dogfight until the very end. Georgia starts on beam just like at regionals, so fans will get a good idea about whether the race will include two or three teams from the get go. Auburn begins on vault, and will need to come right out without nerves and having good landings if it wants to be in contention. Stanford starts with its best two events first, so it’ll look to jump to a big lead over Auburn and Georgia if it wants to have a chance at another Super Six.

Stay tuned for our second session analysis tomorrow and our individual all around and event title contender analysis Wednesday. We will also provide all the links and information you need to follow the competition in the last Mount of the season Thursday.