Believe it or not, we’ve reached week 10 of the regular season, and it’s already time to start looking at the regionals qualification bubble. As a reminder, qualification is based on NQS, which is calculated by taking a team’s top six scores of the season, at least three of which must be on the road, dropping the highest score overall, and averaging the remaining five.
Each year in this series we take a look at each “bubble” team’s highest possible NQS after this coming weekend’s slate and discuss what they’ll need to do to finish in the top 36 and make regionals. This week, we’ll stick only to team discussion, adding in potential individual qualifiers next week.
Let’s start with a postseason bracket projection based on current standings. Teams in bold are located within 400 miles of a host site, so we have placed them accordingly (geography does not matter for the top 16 seeds). The remaining teams were placed using a mixture of geography and conference alignment while attempting to keep the playing field as level as possible.
Note: While official rankings are released each Monday, we are using unofficial NQS rankings following the March 5 Maryland at Temple meet throughout this article.
| University Park | Seattle | Tuscaloosa | Salt Lake City |
| 1. Oklahoma | 2. LSU | 3. UCLA | 4. Florida |
| 8. Michigan State | 7. Missouri | 6. California | 5. Utah |
| 9. Kentucky | 10. Georgia | 11. Oregon State | 12. Stanford |
| 16. Arkansas | 15. Minnesota | 14. Alabama | 13. Auburn |
| 17. Michigan | 19. Nebraska | 20. N.C. State | 18. Denver |
| 23. Ohio State | 22. Arizona | 24. North Carolina | 21. Southern Utah |
| 27. Penn State | 25. Arizona State | 26. Illinois | 29. Boise State |
| 31. Maryland | 33. Iowa | 28. Clemson | 30. Utah State |
| 34. Towson | 35. Central Michigan | 35. George Washington | 32. BYU |
In past years, we’ve seen several examples where geographical proximity to a regionals host has caused teams ranked higher than No. 29 to compete in the play-in round. There are two regionals this year that could cause this issue: Salt Lake City and University Park. In Salt Lake City, there are four teams within 400 miles (excluding Utah), and three of them are currently in play-in position, causing No. 29 Boise State to get a first-round bye instead of No. 28 Clemson in the current projection. In University Park, six teams ranked between No. 17 and No. 36 are located within 400 miles, including three in play-in position. We’ve seen in similar situations in the past that the committee has elected to move one of the three in play-in position to another regional, so we have projected George Washington to go elsewhere. However, it is not guaranteed that this is what would happen.
Bubble Teams
For this article, we’re assuming every team currently ranked in the top 20 will make it to the postseason ranked at least No. 28, which is an important cutoff since play-in rounds should theoretically contain teams ranked No. 29 through No. 36. So we’ll be examining teams currently ranked Nos. 21 through 45 today. Bold scores can no longer be replaced in the NQS calculation while scores with a strikethrough indicate it is the team’s season high, meaning it’s currently being dropped. Scores with an asterisk indicate they can be replaced this coming weekend.
No. 21 Southern Utah
| Current NQS | 196.205 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.475, 196.150, 196.125* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.310 |
| Highest possible ranking | 20 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 26 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Southern Utah is coming off a season-high performance at UC Davis and has scored 196-plus five meets in a row, so the Thunderbirds have consistency going for them. With four NQS scores between 196.100 and 196.175 (but only one locked into counting), they will need to perform in the mid-to-high-196 range to maintain their place in the rankings in the coming weeks.
Score to watch: SUU cannot guarantee staying ahead of Arizona or Ohio State this week, but a season-high-tying 196.650 would keep the team ahead of North Carolina.
No. 22 Arizona
| Current NQS | 196.180 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.650, 196.125, 196.125 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.355 |
| Highest possible ranking | 20 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 26 |
| Meets remaining | 2 home, 1 road |
Similar to Southern Utah, Arizona has several scores bunched in the 196.100 range, but with a higher season high, there is more room to grow. The Wildcats scored a disappointing 195.300 on the road against West Virginia last week and will have to wait until the Big 12 championship for its final opportunity to put up a mid-to-high-196 as its last road score. However, home meets against BYU and Utah State provide opportunities to replace the 196.100 and 195.900 currently counting toward its NQS.
Scores to watch: A 196.575 would guarantee a higher ranking than Southern Utah next week, and a 196.700 would prevent Ohio State from passing.
No. 23 Ohio State
| Current NQS | 196.165 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.425, 196.300, 196.025 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.335 |
| Highest possible ranking | 20 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 26 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
The lowest score Ohio State is locked into counting toward its NQS is 196.300, higher than that of Southern Utah, Arizona, and North Carolina, so the Buckeyes have a great opportunity to significantly improve their NQS if they can replace the 195.800 and 196.025 with much higher scores. Injuries continue to mount, but they managed a season high this past weekend at their home Big Four meet, so it still feels possible to reach the scores needed to move up in the rankings and avoid a potential play-in-round appearance.
Scores to watch: A 196.550 would guarantee passing Southern Utah, and a 196.525 would hold off North Carolina.
No. 24 North Carolina
| Current NQS | 196.125 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.200, 196.150, 195.775* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.305 |
| Highest possible ranking | 20 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 26 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
With two sub-196 scores currently counting toward its NQS, North Carolina’s primary goal should be to replace those with numbers in the mid-196 range in order to stay out of danger of dropping into the play-in round. The Tar Heels’ highest road score so far is a 196.200, but they have two away opportunities remaining to improve that.
Score to watch: A 196.425 this weekend would prevent Arizona State from passing.
No. 25 Arizona State
| Current NQS | 196.065 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.000, 195.950, 195.675* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.250 |
| Highest possible ranking | 21 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 29 |
| Meets remaining | 4 road |
The lowest score Arizona State is locked into counting toward its NQS is a 196.475, and with four road meets left on the schedule, there is plenty of opportunity to move up several slots in the rankings. Breaking into the high-196 range would be a significant help in this regard. With two sub-196 scores currently counting, the Sun Devils are in danger of falling in the rankings and having to compete in the first round.
Scores to watch: A 196.575 this weekend would make it impossible for Illinois to pass the Sun Devils, and they can have a chance of passing Southern Utah with a 196.400 or higher.
No. 26 Illinois
| Current NQS | 195.960 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.200, 195.900, 195.275* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.240 |
| Highest possible ranking | 21 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 32 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Illinois has a large range of scores currently counting toward its NQS (1.400 difference between its highest and lowest), so its range of possible rankings is correspondingly high. The 195.275 is the lowest counting score of any team currently projected to receive a first-round bye, so replacing that with a score at least a full point higher should be the Illini’s first priority. Luckily there are two road meets left on the schedule.
Score to watch: A 195.925 this weekend would prevent Penn State from passing and would guarantee a top 28 ranking on Monday.
No. 27 Penn State
| Current NQS | 195.890 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.100, 195.700, 195.550* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.085 |
| Highest possible ranking | 25 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 32 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
With three mid-195 scores currently counting toward its NQS and three meets left to replace them, there is no room for error if Penn State wants to remain in the top 28. While the 400-mile rule may play out in the Nittany Lions’ favor (meaning they may avoid the first round even if they fall out of the top 28), there are too many factors at play to depend on that.
Scores to watch: A 196.500 would prevent Clemson from being able to pass while a 196.560 would make it possible (but not guaranteed) for the Nittany Lions to pass Arizona State.
No. 28 Clemson
| Current NQS | 195.860 |
| Highest three road scores | 196.225, 195.800, 195.500* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.075 |
| Highest possible ranking | 25 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 32 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Clemson is the first team on this list guaranteed to count a sub-196 score in its final NQS, with three more currently counting that can be replaced. Like Penn State, the top priority should be replacing those low scores with low-to-mid-196s in hopes of avoiding the first round.
Scores to watch: A 196.575 would prevent Utah State from passing while a 196.250 would hold off Boise State.
No. 29 Boise State
| Current NQS | 195.845 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.975, 195.900, 195.625* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.005 |
| Highest possible ranking | 26 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 32 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Boise State is currently projected to avoid the first round only because there are two lower-ranked teams that share proximity to Salt Lake City, but the rankings are too tight to guarantee that will remain the case. With only one 196-plus score on the season so far, the Broncos need to start replicating that performance in order to prevent further drops in ranking.
Score to watch: Boise State can prevent BYU from passing with a 196.350.
No. 30 Utah State
| Current NQS | 195.815 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.300, 195.725, 195.200* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 196.070 |
| Highest possible ranking | 25 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 33 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Utah State is not guaranteed to count any sub-196 scores in its final NQS, so it is actually in better shape than Clemson and Boise State if it can replace that 195.200 with a much higher score.
Score to watch: A 196.175 would guarantee passing Boise State.
No. 31 Maryland
| Current NQS | 195.790 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.125, 195.750, 195.400* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.975 |
| Highest possible ranking | 26 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 34 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
Maryland smartly scheduled six meets in March, including a matchup at Temple earlier today and a tri-meet with LIU at Yale this Sunday. The Terrapins’ new season high of 196.325 against Temple moved them up three spots in the realtime rankings, but there are still four sub-196 scores counting. They’ll want to ride the momentum to another high road score at Yale.
Score to watch: A 196.275 on Sunday would give Maryland a chance of passing Illinois.
No. 32 BYU
| Current NQS | 195.750 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.900, 195.825, 195.750 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.985 |
| Highest possible ranking | 26 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 35 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
Like Boise State, BYU has surpassed the 196 mark only once this season, though a 196.775 season high is tied for second highest among all the teams featured in this bubble watch. That score came at home on senior night, so replicating that performance in its three remaining home meets will be an uphill battle. While the Cougars are safely in the regionals field for another week, it feels unlikely they will rise out of the play-in position.
Score to watch: BYU needs a score of 196.675 to have a chance of passing Illinois, and a 196.000 will prevent Towson from passing.
No. 33 Iowa
| Current NQS | 195.700 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 196.200, 196.125, 195.975* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.775 |
| Highest possible ranking | 32 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 35 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Iowa is not yet guaranteed to count a sub-196 score in its final NQS, but it has two remaining road meets to replace its two low-195 numbers currently factoring in. There is little room for error, and increasing its season high by several tenths this weekend at home would help create more breathing room for the Hawkeyes.
Score to watch: With a 196.250, Iowa would have a chance to pass BYU in the rankings.
No. 34 Towson
| Current NQS | 195.660 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.650, 195.600, 195.400 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.825 |
| Highest possible ranking | 30 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 36 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 3 road |
Towson is unlikely to finish in the top 28 at this point but may avoid the first round if the 400-mile rule plays in its favor. However, the Tigers will still want to finish as high as possible, and replacing some of those mid-195s with 196-plus scores would help keep them above the cutline for regionals.
Scores to watch: Towson can guarantee a higher ranking than Iowa on Monday with a 196.175 this weekend, and a 196.275 would ensure George Washington cannot pass for another week.
No. T-35 George Washington
| Current NQS | 195.555 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.800, 195.750, 195.475 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.795 |
| Highest possible ranking | 31 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 39 |
| Meets remaining | 2 home, 2 road |
With four meets remaining on the schedule, George Washington has plenty of opportunities to increase its NQS and move up the rankings. The Revolutionaries will need to replace as many of those mid-195s with 196-plus scores as possible or they will be in danger of being knocked out of the regionals field by lower-ranked teams.
Scores to watch: A 196.475 would guarantee a higher ranking than Iowa on Monday, and a 196.075 would keep GW ranked ahead of Central Michigan.
No. T-35 Central Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.555 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.750, 195.600, 195.500 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.695 |
| Highest possible ranking | 34 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 39 |
| Meets remaining | 2 home, 1 road |
Central Michigan is in a precarious position with only a 196.000 season high and two mid-195 scores guaranteed to count in its final NQS. Increasing that season high to create more breathing room in the final weeks of the season should be a top priority in its final road meet of this weekend.
Score to watch: A 195.850 on Saturday would ensure a higher ranking than Ball State on Monday.
No. T-37 Washington
| Current NQS | 195.325 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.700, 195.650, 195.425 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.575 |
| Highest possible ranking | 35 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 47 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
There is over a two-tenth gap in NQS between the two teams tied at No. 35 and the two teams tied at No. 37; for context, the difference between No. 35 and No. 47 is currently only 0.300. This gap between the regionals field and the chasers is partly because this is where we start to see teams counting sub-195 scores toward their NQS. Washington currently has two such scores; neither one is locked into counting in the Huskies’ final NQS, but they will need to replace them with substantially higher scores if they want to bridge the gap and move into qualifying position. As a regionals host this season, it would be a shame to see Washington miss out on qualification as a team.
Score to watch: Washington needs a score of 196.050 to have a chance of passing Central Michigan.
No. T-37 Illinois State
| Current NQS | 195.325 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.725, 195.275, 194.875* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.580 |
| Highest possible ranking | 35 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 47 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
The composition of Illinois State’s current NQS-counting scores is remarkably similar to Washington’s, with even the same score possible to replace this weekend, so the goal is largely the same: Replace the low-195 and high-194 scores with performances closer to the level of the season high.
Score to watch: A 195.775 will prevent Iowa State from passing the Redbirds.
No. 39 Kent State
| Current NQS | 195.285 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.425, 195.200, 195.175 |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.415 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 47 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
It’s not possible for Kent State to move into a qualifying position this weekend, largely thanks to the relatively small range of its NQS-counting scores. The Golden Flashes need to increase their season high by several tenths in order to have any shot at making regionals this year.
Score to watch: A 195.500 on Sunday would give Kent State a shot at passing Illinois State and Washington.
No. 40 Ball State
| Current NQS | 195.270 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.275, 195.000, 194.950* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.660 |
| Highest possible ranking | 34 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 48 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
Ball State is the only team ranked lower than No. 37 with a possibility of moving into a qualifying position this weekend thanks to its very high season high of 196.900. Replicating that this weekend would increase its NQS by almost four-tenths! The Cardinals have three road meets left in which to replace two low-195 scores and one 194.950, so the opportunity is there if they can put together complete meets.
Scores to watch: Ball State can guarantee passing Illinois State with a score of 196.525, and a 196.125 would prevent Iowa State from passing.
No. 41 Iowa State
| Current NQS | 195.250 |
| Highest three road scores | 195.375, 194.850, 194.575* |
| Other NQS scores | |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.500 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 48 |
| Meets remaining | 3 road |
Iowa State is in a similar position to Kent State, with a season high that is too low to allow for big jumps in NQS. Dropping the 194.575 would definitely help, but ideally the Cyclones need to set a new season high by several tenths in order to remain in the regionals qualification conversation.
Score to watch: The Cyclones can guarantee passing Kent State with a 195.425 on Friday.
No. 42 Pittsburgh
| Current NQS | 195.225 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.125, 195.100, 195.050* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.345 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 48 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
The five teams ranked below Pittsburgh all have 196-plus season highs while the Panthers have only managed a 195.650, leaving them very vulnerable to being passed this week. In addition, there is only a six-tenth spread in all its NQS-counting scores, so even with a new season high, the increase in NQS will be minimal. Pitt needs to start scoring over 196 in order to have any chance at qualification.
Score to watch: A 195.575 would give Pitt a chance to pass Illinois State and Washington.
No. T-43 Penn
| Current NQS | 195.105 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.075, 194.975, 194.950* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.355 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 49 |
| Meets remaining | 2 home, 1 road |
Penn’s season high of 196.200 puts it in a much better position to increase its NQS than Pitt, but there is still a long road to regionals qualification. Penn is guaranteed to count two low-195 scores in its final NQS, so multiple repeated performances of its season-high level are needed in order to be in the qualification conversation moving forward.
Score to watch: A 196.175 on Saturday would guarantee a higher ranking than Pitt on Monday.
No. T-43 Rutgers
| Current NQS | 195.105 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.350, 194.850, 194.550* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.450 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 49 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
While Penn and Rutgers are currently tied, Rutgers has the advantage of a higher season high and a lower score that can be replaced this weekend. However, like Penn, there is no room for error, and the Scarlet Knights need to replace all three of those sub-195 scores with scores in the 196 range in order to have any shot at regionals qualification.
Score to watch: Rutgers can guarantee passing Kent State with a 196.125 on Friday.
No. 45 Western Michigan
| Current NQS | 195.095 |
| Highest three road scores | |
| Other NQS scores | 195.350, 195.300, 194.825* |
| NQS with season high this weekend | 195.430 |
| Highest possible ranking | 37 |
| Lowest possible ranking | 49 |
| Meets remaining | 1 home, 2 road |
Western Michigan’s season high of 196.500, set this past weekend, is the second highest among all teams ranked outside the top 36, so the possibility of moving up the rankings is definitely there. However, it’ll likely take all three remaining scores being in the low-196 range in order to keep regionals hopes alive.
Score to Watch: A 196.450 on Saturday would guarantee a higher ranking than Kent State.
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