The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 11

It’s the final week before most teams square off for conference titles and the penultimate week to improve NQS. With the bubble mostly locked in, these last few opportunities are all about solidifying a solid position in the regionals picture and resting up for intense showdowns throughout the postseason.

Must-Watch Meets

Denver at Michigan

Friday, March 15 at 7 p.m. ET | BTN+

Prediction: 62.84% Denver, 37.16% Michigan

In the final regular-season meet, Jessica Hutchinson and her Denver team face Sierra Brooks and a Michigan team in the midst of a rebuild. Wildly, these teams couldn’t be much closer. The Pioneers finally hit a high score on the road last time out, putting them seven-hundredths of a point ahead of the Wolverines in the rankings. Both teams are ranked in the top 20 on all events, but Michigan has a slight advantage on beam and floor over Denver. Add home floor advantage and senior night for some Wolverine legends, and it could be a perfect recipe for Michigan to hit 198 for the first time this season. Denver won’t let that happen quietly, though; if it can get a lead in the first two rotations and capitalize on any Michigan missteps, this could be the confidence boost the Pioneers need heading into Big 12s.

Additional notes about the predictions: At the beginning of the season, Michigan would have been projected to win this meet, but with its injuries and another low 197 score this past week, its win percentage is just 37%. Scoring higher than the Pioneers on bars, however, increases its win percentage to 64%. Even with a season high, Michigan can only tie Denver in the rankings, though, but not pass it. Alternatively, Denver can move as high as sixth with another 198-plus, which we see occurring in 1% of our simulations.

Iowa State, LIU, and N.C. State at Florida

Friday, March 15 at 7 p.m. ET | SECN+

Prediction: 98.99% Florida, 0.91% N.C. State, 0.10% Iowa State, 0.01% LIU

This quad meet is about four different teams competing for a score. Each team is in a different tier when it comes to the postseason with Florida looking to hold onto a top seed, N.C. State potentially hoping to jump into a seeded position, Iowa State fighting to make it into regionals, and LIU being on the outside looking in. With it being the Gators’ senior meet, they’re expected to take this meet—and it won’t be particularly competitive.

Additional notes about the predictions: Florida has a 53% chance of scoring at least the 197.625 needed to avoid dropping in the rankings this week. N.C. State and Iowa State have more riding on their scores in Gainesville, with many different rankings possible. They have a 60% and 48% chance, respectively, of putting up a score that will increase their NQS.

North Carolina at LSU

Friday, March 15 at 8:30 p.m. | SECN+

Prediction: 99.97% LSU, 0.03% North Carolina

While this meet won’t be a nail-biter in terms of the head-to-head competition, it’s an important competition for second-ranked LSU. The Tigers will be fighting to maintain their position over No. 3 California, and they’ll need a big score to do that. But with Haleigh Bryant coming off her historic 39.925 all-around total and it being senior night in Baton Rouge, maintaining their lead is certainly realistic. As for the Tar Heels, qualifying to regionals is pretty much out of the question at this point, but they have been on the rise recently. A big score on the road would surely be a confidence boost heading into the ACC championship. 

Additional notes about the predictions: A home meet on senior night should mean another LSU win is almost a given, but a home meet also means that LSU cannot drop its low road score and is at risk of falling to third nationally. Our simulations show a 4% chance of LSU scoring at least a 198.300 to improve its NQS and avoid that situation, but it all depends on how California scores this week. North Carolina is likely out of the postseason picture, sitting at No. 46 in the rankings, but a score of 197.650 would allow it to at least reenter the bubble conversation.

San Jose State and UC Davis at California

Friday, March 15 at 10 p.m. ET | Free Live Stream

Prediction: 99.98% California, 0.01% San Jose State, 0.01% UC Davis

The first of a two-meet weekend for California brings two NorCal teams to Berkeley. While the Golden Bears should easily win this meet, all three teams have incentives to perform well. Cal will want to continue building off last weekend’s program high and will be looking to hone in on vault landings. As the postseason approaches, hops on the event could be the Golden Bears’ Achilles heel.

The Spartans are looking to continue a streak of four 196-plus scores as they prepare for the Mountain West championship next week. They’ll also want a strong score in an attempt to avoid the play-in round of regionals. And, despite being out of the regionals picture, UC Davis will want to prove its record-breaking 197.025 last weekend was no fluke and continue building momentum going into the MPSF championship. 

Additional notes about the predictions: California should not be worried about winning this meet after putting up another program record last weekend. Instead, it will be trying to regain its second place ranking from LSU. With a double meet weekend, there are many possible scenarios where that could happen, but the Golden Bears will be looking to average a 198.200 across both meets, which occurs in 2% of our simulations. San Jose State cannot escape play-in territory this week but has a 14% chance of scoring a 196.400 or higher, which would increase its NQS.

Clemson at UCLA

Saturday, March 16 at 5 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 85.55% UCLA, 14.45% Clemson

Following UCLA’s meet against Arizona State, Janelle McDonald summed up UCLA’s performance in a nutshell: “It was not one of our best days.” A 196.325 is the Bruins’ lowest score since McDonald took over as head coach, and the combination of Selena Harris resting and Emma Malabuyo at the Baku World Cup led to a dismal beam rotation with two falls. In this week’s meet against Clemson, the Bruins will hope to have both Harris and Malabuyo back in lineups. Chae Campbell’s status in the floor lineup will also be something to watch for. If she’s ready, she’ll go on senior night, but if she still needs more time, it’s likely she won’t push things with more important meets on the horizon. Plus, could this be the meet where Margzetta Frazier makes her return?

On the other side of the competition floor, Clemson is celebrating a program high 197.600 against Air Force last weekend. This will be Clemson’s first and probably last ever dual meet against a Pac-12 team. It’s also Clemson’s last chance to build its NQS and drop a 196.350 road score to put it into a better regionals position.           

Additional notes about the predictions: UCLA had a tough meet last weekend, which dropped its win percentage from 90% to 85%. Selena Harris was reportedly resting last week, but if she is out again, the Bruins win percentage drops even further to 68%. Emma Malabuyo should also be back from her World Cup this week, but without her and Harris, this becomes a 60/40 matchup. Even without a win, Clemson will be looking for a higher road score to avoid the play-in round of regionals. We see a 2% chance of it scoring at least the needed 197.175 to avoid that scenario.

Alabama at Oklahoma

Sunday, March 17 at 4 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Prediction: 97.68% Oklahoma, 2.32% Alabama

Oklahoma has had a regular season to remember, breaking program records left and right. In their regular season finale, the Sooners will welcome the Crimson Tide for senior day in a preview of future SEC matchups. It will be the final farewell for several key seniors, but KJ Kindler will have some interesting lineup decisions to make. Ava Siegfeldt scoring a perfect 10 on her first competitive beam routine in over a year might give her higher consideration over someone who is normally in the lineup. Alabama hit 198 at home for the second time this season, but the test now will be if it can hit that number on the road to improve its ranking before SECs next weekend. Makarri Doggette’s injury hurt, but Luisa Blanco has led well in her absence; her performance will be a big factor in how this meet plays out.

Additional notes about the predictions: Oklahoma continues to perform at its peak, leaving very few scenarios left to predict. Focusing on Alabama’s score, however, brings us to an interesting race for the No. 5-9 positions in the rankings next week. Alabama has a 64% chance of scoring higher than a 197.325 and improving its NQS, but it will want to be closer to 198 to have a chance of moving up in the standings. 

Upset Alert

BYU, Southern Utah, and Sacramento State at Washington

Friday, March 15 at 9 p.m. ET | Free Live Stream

Prediction: 53.78% Washington, 25.60% BYU, 20.61% Southern Utah, 0.01% Sacramento State

In this matchup, BYU, Southern Utah, Sacramento State, and Washington are going to battle it out for the win as these teams end their regular season with a quad meet. Washington heads into the meet as the favorite, and with the home crowd, it’s a good bet to happen. Southern Utah is coming off its two highest scores of the season and seems to be peaking at the right time. BYU has shown consistency all season long and is capable of scoring in the 197-plus range on a good day. Sacramento State is a bit behind these teams in terms of the rankings, but it has a season-high of 196.825, which is right in line with what these teams have been scoring all season long. If the Hornets have a good day, they could set themselves up for an upset.

Additional notes about the predictions: Washington is the favorite to win, but with both BYU and Southern Utah hitting 197-plus recently, it could be anyone’s meet. Beam will be the key event, with the team posting the highest score there winning the whole thing 63% of the time. All three teams will also be trying to put up scores to keep them out of the play-in round of regionals. Although there’s only a 1% chance of this outcome, another score of 196.950 or higher for BYU could bring it up as high as No. 27 in the rankings. Southern Utah’s jump appears more likely with a 12% chance of scoring the 196.575 needed for a similar increase. Washington has a 50% chance of increasing its NQS this week by scoring higher than 196.450.

Kidney Care Women’s Collegiate Gymnastics Championships

Session One with Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Pitt, and Talladega

Saturday, March 16 at 1:30 p.m. ET | YouTube

Prediction: 77.43% Georgia, 17.17% Maryland, 5.19% Iowa, 0.20% Pittsburgh, 0.01% Talladega

Multi-team podium meets are all the rage this time of year, as teams scramble to give their NQS a last-minute boost. There are some potentially significant postseason implications at play in the afternoon session, particularly if scoring trends the way of the now-infamous Tennessee Collegiate Classic. 

No. 19 Georgia is frontrunner in theory, but Maryland has proven much more capable of hitting the 197 mark on the road in recent weeks than the Gymdogs. Both teams need to drop scores in the low-196 range or risk being relegated to the play-in round of regionals. Similarly, Iowa is currently sitting on the wrong side of the bubble and will need to work some magic this weekend and next to break into the top 36. Talladega will be looking to close out its inaugural regular season with a bang by extending its streak of 191-plus scores to five. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Georgia is the favorite to win session one in Tennessee, but don’t count Maryland out. Posting the higher score on either bars or beam increases its win chances to 41%. Iowa’s score is also extremely important in this meet, as it needs a 196.275 to still have a chance at regionals. Our simulations show a 22% chance of the Hawkeyes reaching that score.

Session Two with Auburn, Fisk, Kentucky, and Ohio State

Saturday, March 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET | YouTube

Prediction: 83.22% Kentucky, 8.58% Auburn, 8.09% Ohio State, 0.01% Fisk

Kentucky should cruise to an easy victory here but has a shot at positioning itself as a one-seed at regionals with a hefty road score. Either Auburn or Ohio State could give the Wildcats a run for their money, but more importantly have an opportunity to control their respective postseason fates by locking up a top 16 ranking. Fisk is coming off its second-best score of the season and will be looking to build on that momentum ahead of the upcoming USAG national championships.

Additional notes about the predictions: Kentucky is likely to walk away with another win here, but both Auburn and Ohio State will be looking to upset. Kentucky counting a fall would be a major shakeup in this meet, dropping its win chances down to just 22%. However, if Kentucky can score another 198-plus, it has a chance of passing No. 4 Florida next week, which has a 2% chance of happening. Auburn has a 36% chance of scoring at least a 196.975 to stay seeded for regionals. Meanwhile, Ohio State cannot improve its ranking, but it does has a 28% chance of scoring at least the 197.075 needed so N.C. State cannot pass it.

Lindenwood and Michigan State at Illinois State

Saturday, March 16 at 5 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Note: This preview was written before Michigan State was added to the meet.

Prediction: 67.55% Illinois State, 32.45% Lindenwood

This one is juicy! If we ignore Lindenwood’s score from the Tennessee meet, its high is a 196.325, which bests Illinois State’s 2024 best of 196.275. The Lions also have two 196-plus numbers on the books to the Redbirds’ one, and their first came in a dual win at home over this Illinois State team. Both teams scored their season highs (again, ignoring Tennessee) last weekend. If they’re dialed in, this one should come down to the final routine.

Gayla Griswold has been missing from Lindenwood lineups for two weeks; if she’s back, the Lions are in even better shape. Both teams have had big beam misses this year, so if either gets through cleanly there, things will be looking up. Illinois State can also struggle on bars, so watch the second rotation closely.

Additional notes about the predictions: Although Illinois State is ranked higher, Lindenwood is the team still in the regionals hunt since it has a 194.825 it can drop this week. Our simulations show a 57% chance of it improving its NQS. If the focus is just on winning the meet, though, it can increase its chances to 63% by scoring higher on beam. Gayla Griswold has been absent for two weeks now, and without her again, Lindenwood’s chances of winning this meet drop to 27%.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week 11 go by without bringing up these additional points.

• Minnesota hosts Air Force, Northern Illinois, and West Virginia for senior night. The Falcons’ freshman all-arounder Maggie Slife is in the hunt for an individual berth to regionals. A mid-39 would do a lot to boost her chances. 
• Nebraska heads to Fayetteville for the Razorbacks’ senior night. The Huskers are in a safe regionals position, but a big road score would do a lot to move them further out of the play-in danger zone. 
• Oregon State sits just outside of the seeded regionals berths. It’ll be at Boise State with Utah State on Sunday. With a 196.525 road number to drop, a solid score there will do a lot for the Beavers’ regionals placement. The Broncos are securely in the regionals picture while the Aggies are likely out. Keep an eye out for Emily Lopez, who only competed beam last week for Boise and is suspected to have a minor injury, as well as Courtney Blackson, who went down on floor and did not compete vault a rotation later.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Note: Predictions were made for Lindenwood at Illinois State before Michigan State was added to the meet.

Brandis (Last Week: 4-3; Overall: 35-26)

• Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Western Michigan
• BYU, SUU & Sac State at UW: Washington
• Kidney Care Session One: Georgia
• Kidney Care Session Two: Kentucky
• Lindenwood at Illinois State: Lindenwood
• Arizona, Missouri & SEMO at Illinois: Missouri

Claire (Last Week: 3-4; Overall: 33-24)

• Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Western Michigan 
• BYU, SUU & Sac State at UW: Washington 
• Kidney Care Session One: Maryland
• Kidney Care Session Two: Kentucky
• Lindenwood at Illinois State: Illinois State
• Arizona, Missouri & SEMO at Illinois: Missouri 

Elizabeth (Last Week: 2-5; Overall: 36-21)

• Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Central Michigan
• BYU, SUU & Sac State at UW: Washington
• Kidney Care Session One: Georgia
• Kidney Care Session Two: Kentucky
• Lindenwood at Illinois State: Illinois State
• Arizona, Missouri & SEMO at Illinois: Missouri

Emily M (Last Week: 4-3; Overall: 40-17)

• Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Central Michigan
• BYU, SUU & Sac State at UW: Washington
• Kidney Care Session One: Maryland
• Kidney Care Session Two: Kentucky
• Lindenwood at Illinois State: Illinois State
• Arizona, Missouri & SEMO at Illinois: Missouri

Rebecca (Last Week: 4-3; Overall: 36-21)

• Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Western Michigan 
• BYU, SUU & Sac State at UW: Washington
• Kidney Care Session One: Georgia
• Kidney Care Session Two: Kentucky
• Lindenwood at Illinois State: Illinois State
• Arizona, Missouri & SEMO at Illinois: Missouri

Week 11 Guest: Julianna

• Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Central Michigan
• BYU, SUU & Sac State at UW: Washington 
• Kidney Care Session One: Georgia
• Kidney Care Session Two: Kentucky 
• Lindenwood at Illinois State: Illinois State 
• Arizona, Missouri & SEMO at Illinois: Missouri

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: Bubble Watch: March 13

Article by the editors of College Gym News