The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 7

Heading into week seven, big quad meets take center stage along with a slate of meets with possible upsets. Lineups are firming up and routines are sharpening for the postseason, with crucial NQS scores looming.

Must-Watch Meets

Mizzou to the Lou

With Florida, Illinois, Lindenwood, and Missouri

Friday, Feb. 16 at 7 p.m. ET | SECN

Prediction: 86.08% Florida, 13.54% Missouri, 0.37% Illinois, 0.01% Lindenwood

This quad meet, the successor of the GymQuarters meet of years past, is the sort of pleasingly incongruous quad that we’re usually only treated to at the beginning and end of the season. 

A Gators team that seems to be figuring things out will love the opportunity to get a comfortable road score, but don’t forget the upside that Missouri has. For Lindenwood, meanwhile, this is a virtual home meet and should be a fun environment, and Illinois is comfortable as an underdog.

Additional notes about the predictions: The Gators are the favorites to win this matchup, but Missouri could pull off the upset. Missouri’s best chance comes if it can win beam, raising its win percentage to 45%. If the Tigers can win both beam and vault, then they become strong favorites to win with a 78% chance. Jocelyn Moore is the most impactful individual for Missouri in this one, pulling ahead of teammate Sienna Schreiber, with Missouri’s win percentage dropping to only 8% if Moore is not at full strength.

Metroplex Challenge

With Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, and Washington

Saturday, Feb. 17 at 8:30 p.m. ET | TBD

Prediction: 83.85% Oklahoma, 16.04% California, 0.1% Arkansas, 0.01% Washington

One of the most entertaining matchups of the weekend that hardly anyone will get to see is the Metroplex Challenge. No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 California will go head to head for the second time in three weeks, with the Golden Bears hoping to pull the victory after finishing almost a half of a point behind in their last meeting. Arkansas started the season strong, but it had to count falls the last two meets. The Razorbacks will want a clean meet to have a good score before NQS rankings kick in. Washington has yet to hit the 197 range this season, and if the scores start flying, this could be the meet to do it. 

Additional notes about the predictions: California continues to be the one team that can challenge Oklahoma this season, with 13% of our simulations coming down to less than a tenth. The Golden Bears will want to post the higher score on both beam and floor to gain the advantage and have a 57% chance of winning this meet. However, if Oklahoma counts a fall on any event, then California’s chances of winning jump up to 70%. Mya Lauzon was resting last week for California, but if it turns out that something bigger was going on and she is out again then California’s win chances drop to only 6%. 

Upset Alert

Arizona State at Arizona

Thursday, Feb. 15 at 8 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Networks

Prediction: 66.64% Arizona State, 33.36% Arizona

If state school rivalries are your thing, you can’t miss this nail-bitingly close matchup between Arizona and Arizona State. The Sun Devils will be looking to extend their winning streak against the Wildcats to five consecutive wins, but the Wildcats won’t make it easy this time. 

Arizona averages about 0.1 higher than Arizona State in the national rankings, but Arizona State has the greater season high. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, so it may come down to who hits. The 196.850 Arizona put up against California last week is its highest away score in nearly nine years. At that meet Arizona put up some impressive scores including Malia Hargrove’s 9.975 on vault and Alysen Fear’s 9.950 on bars. Arizona State is coming off a win against Stanford last week for a 196.975, its tenth-highest road score in program history.

Additional notes about the predictions: This will be a close matchup with 15% of our simulations coming down to less than a tenth difference in scores. Arizona State is currently the favorite, but Arizona can flip its chances if it can post the higher score on vault, increasing its win percentage to 59%. Winning bars as well gives the Wildcats an 82% chance of winning this meet. Hargrove will be the key contributor for Arizona here. Without her at full strength, Arizona’s win percentage drops to only 23%.

Clemson at N.C. State

Friday, Feb. 16 at 4 p.m. ET | ACCNx

Prediction: 61.71% Clemson, 38.29% N.C. State

It’s time for a rematch between the top two teams in the ACC. Clemson may be the higher ranked of the two teams, but that was true during the last meeting as well, and N.C. State came out on top. Beam is likely going to be the decider. In the last meeting, Clemson had a rough rotation which is ultimately how N.C. State won. Just this past week the Wolfpack scored a season-high 49.4 on the event leading to a higher peak team score this season than Clemson. This one is primed for an upset. 

Additional notes about the predictions: Last time these two teams met, Clemson struggled on the beam. Counting a fall on beam again in this meet lowers the Tigers’ win percentage to only 23%. Floor will also be a key event in this matchup. If N.C. State can post the higher score on floor then its win percentage increase to 65%.

Ball State at Western Michigan

Saturday, Feb. 17 at 4 p.m. ET | Free live stream

Prediction: 59.96% Ball State, 40.04% Western Michigan

What looked like an even-strength MAC dual a month ago is no longer, with visitor Ball State having found momentum while host Western Michigan has yet to find its stride in 2024. Since becoming fan favorite teams outside the Power 5 last spring, they’ve both relied more heavily on their multi-event athlete; they make up two of only three teams in the MAC to field more than one gymnast all around, and combined account for the majority of the conference’s all-arounders. With that plan in motion and no public notice of resting yet, we’ll be on the lookout for which team can register north of 39 more often. 

Additional notes about the predictions: The high scoring at the Tennessee Classic continues to skew our models and gives Ball State the edge on this one. Removing this meet, however, puts Western Michigan as the favorite to win with a 54% chance. Posting the higher score on bars will also be key for Western Michigan, as it gives the Broncos a 70% chance of winning the meet. Winning both bars and beam all but seals the deal for the Broncos with a 94% chance of winning the meet. Keep an eye on Payton Murphy‘s contributions though, because without her at full strength Western Michigan only has a 30% chance of winning this meet.

Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas at Texas Woman’s

Monday, Feb. 19 at 3 p.m. ET | Paid live stream

Prediction: 80.6% Alabama, 16.41% Arkansas, 2.98% Arizona, 0.01% Texas Woman’s

This is shaping up to be a sneaky good meet, folks! The Crimson Tide undoubtedly has the highest scoring ceiling of the bunch, but that’s contingent on the bars and beam lineups firing on all cylinders: They might be able to absorb a low 49 on one of those events and walk away with the win and a usable road score, but probably not both. Likewise, the Razorbacks have seen a reversal in fortunes the last two weeks as they’ve struggled to break 196 after kicking off the season with three consecutive scores in the 197s (including tying Alabama in Tuscaloosa during their week two dual meet). 

Should either team falter, Arizona is primed to swoop in and overtake them. The Wildcats have been reliably fantastic this season and—more importantly—have momentum on their side after nearly unseating the California Golden Bears in Berkley last weekend. Also, don’t sleep on the Pioneers! The home team boasts an outstanding roster whose gymnasts are quite capable of challenging for the individual event titles, particularly on floor.  

Additional notes about the predictions: Arkansas’s best chance of winning this meet comes on the beam. If it can post the higher score on this event, its win percentage increases to 41%. Alabama’s best chance of avoiding this outcome comes if they score at least a 49.3 on the event, which they have only done once so far this season. If the Razorbacks can win at least 2 events then they have a slight advantage with a 53% chance of winning this meet. The most likely pair of events is beam and floor, with that outcome occurring in 11% of our simulations. 

Utah at UCLA

Monday, Feb. 19 at 5 p.m. ET | ESPNU

Prediction: 82.35% Utah, 17.65% UCLA

One of the premier rivalry matchups in NCAA gymnastics will see its final iteration as a Pac-12 dual before both teams depart for new conferences next year, as the Red Rocks will travel to Los Angeles to battle the Bruins. The pair are both ranked in the top 10 as Utah sits at fourth and UCLA at eighth, but the Utes enter as favorites with more consistent scoring this season–even though the Bruins have the higher best score.

The Bruins will be shorthanded in this matchup, as one of their leaders–Emma Malabuyo–will be absent as she is overseas attempting to qualify for the upcoming Olympic Games for the Philippines. Stars Nya Reed and Chae Campbell both sat out last weekend, too, making UCLA’s lineups quite questionable heading into this matchup. Selena Harris will be relied upon even more to boost UCLA and will have to contend in the all-around with the likes of Grace McCallum, who returned to competing on four events last week for the Utes, and Makenna Smith, one of the more underrated all-arounders this year. And as always, keep an eye on Maile O’Keefe as she nears the top 10 in all-time 10.0s with 14 in her career already.

Additional notes about the predictions: Previously, our models were showing a 37% win percentage for UCLA, however with its mid-197 last week and Malabuyo gone for the World Cups, the Red Rocks have a strong advantage. UCLA can turn this into a 50/50 matchup if it can post the higher score on bars, however with Malabuyo gone there is only a 20% chance of this outcome occurring. This season, Utah has gone below 49.2 on at least one event in all but one meet. Continuing that streak lowers its win chances to just 60%.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week seven go by without bringing up these additional points.

• Auburn at LSU: It’s the battle of the Tigers at the PMAC this weekend as LSU and Auburn face off. Haleigh Bryant is fresh off of a gym slam, but Auburn pulled an upset victory against Alabama in the Iron Bowl last time out. This could be a closer-than-expected meet.
• Elevate the Stage: Michigan and Rutgers take the stage at the annual Elevate the Stage podium meet. Michigan appears to have found its footing in this rebuilding year, so look to see how far that momentum will go, even without Naomi Morrison, who is in a boot.
• Iowa State, West Virginia at Denver: Denver has hit its stride in recent weeks and will look to continue building in this conference tri-meet with Iowa State and West Virginia. Iowa State has shown significant improvement under first-year coach Ashley Miles Greig, while West Virginia has struggled with injuries to some of its key contributors, but competing at home should provide a boost.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis (Last Week: 4-2; Overall: 20-16)

• Metroplex: Oklahoma
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona
• Clemson at N.C. State: Clemson
• Ball State at Western Michigan: Ball State
• Alabama, Arizona & Arkansas at TWU: Alabama
• Utah at UCLA: Utah

Claire (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 21-11)

• Metroplex: Oklahoma
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona
• Clemson at N.C. State: Clemson 
• Ball State at Western Michigan: Ball State
• Alabama, Arizona & Arkansas at TWU: Alabama
• Utah at UCLA: UCLA 

Elizabeth (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 23-9)

• Metroplex: Oklahoma
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona
• Clemson at N.C. State: Clemson
• Ball State at Western Michigan: Ball State
• Alabama, Arizona & Arkansas at TWU: Alabama
• Utah at UCLA: UCLA

Emily M (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 23-9)

• Metroplex: Oklahoma
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona
• Clemson at N.C. State: N.C. State
• Ball State at Western Michigan: Ball State
• Alabama, Arizona & Arkansas at TWU: Alabama
• Utah at UCLA: UCLA

Rebecca (Last Week: 5-1; Overall: 19-13)

• Metroplex: Oklahoma
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona
• Clemson at N.C. State: NC State
• Ball State at Western Michigan: Ball State
• Alabama, Arizona & Arkansas at TWU: Alabama
• Utah at UCLA: Utah 

Week 7 Guest: Jessica

• Metroplex: Oklahoma
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona
• Clemson at NC State: Clemson
• Ball State at Western Michigan: Ball State
• Alabama, Arizona & Arkansas at TWU: Arkansas
• Utah at UCLA: Utah

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

READ THIS NEXT: Fantasy Central: Week 7

Article by the editors of College Gym News