By now you’ve probably seen our preseason poll where over 15 editors produced what they believe to be the top 36 teams for the 2024 season. Then we did some basic math and came out with our overall ranking. In this week’s roundtable, we’re talking about our decisions—why we put some teams where we did, didn’t include others, and any differences we think we may see from what we ranked in the real thing on Road to Nationals.
Did you use any sort of methodology when ranking your top 36?
Elizabeth: I looked at last year’s top 36 (mostly to ensure I didn’t forget any important teams), and then I rearranged from there based on losses and gains. Nothing too scientific went into my decisions beyond that though, as I truly feel I have a good gut sense of teams’ potential.
Julianna: For my first preseason poll (!!) I looked at a few different things when ranking my top 36. The first thing I looked at was the final standings from last year and also the potential lineups from this year to see how significantly teams might be rising or dropping from the standings at the end of the 2023 season.
Mary Emma: I have a similar strategy as Elizabeth, where I list the top 40 or so from last year and then rearrange the teams as I see fit based on what they gained and lost from the previous season.
Tara: My strategy is similar every year. I took last year’s standings and focused on the top 40, looking at both the final standing and the final regular season standings. From there, I took gains and losses into account, also relying on our potential lineups series to familiarize myself with where each team stands. Then it was just down to rearranging the teams as I saw fit.
Katherine: I look at last year’s rankings as a whole and just thought about what I’ve seen so far in preseason training. I also considered the most impactful graduations and freshman classes. It’s not really different than what everyone else did, but I suspect my attorney brain relied a little less on raw data than my peers of that background. Sometimes we go based off vibes.
Alyssa: I had a similar strategy as many others where I compared the regular season and final rankings and shifted teams around based on changes in rosters and where I anticipate each team to finish the year.
Savanna: My strategy was to take the top 36 from the end of last season plus some bubble teams, look at how many routines each team was losing and from who, and then looked at who each team was adding. I used that to create a ranking that showed where teams improved and where some lost momentum.
Claire H: I went with a data-driven approach! I used the meet predictor I’ve been building for this season to predict meet outcomes (stay tuned!), which uses previous scores for returnees and predicted scores for freshmen. Using this, I predicted 10 meets for each team, assigned home and away locations to them and then calculated potential NQS values for each team. I ran this 100 times and took the median NQS to get my final rankings. I decided not to rearrange anything based on my opinions and leave it as purely data based.
Mariah: I basically approached my ranking the same way as most everyone else. I just looked at the top 40 teams, compared the regular season and final season rankings from last year, and then moved teams around based on losses and gains.
Emily L: Like most everyone else, I looked at the final rankings from last year and moved teams around based on losses and gains.
Naomi: I’m going to sound like a broken record, but I looked at the top 40 teams, as well as losses and gains and potential lineups, and went from there.
Which team did you pick to win it all and why?
Elizabeth: I went with Oklahoma because as I always say, never count KJ Kindler out (I mean, Soraya Hawthorne’s vault was to OU standards within, like, a month of being in Norman…). Plus, if I’m wrong, I feel like I still win because the result is a fun upset, a “finally” moment, or a dramatic finish.
Julianna: I picked LSU to win it all this year. For the past few seasons since Jay Clark has taken over as head coach, LSU has been trying to find its rhythm until last season. Even with a handful of season-ending injuries, LSU still managed to make it to the team final. With the team coming back at full strength, a strong senior and fifth-year class staying for their last season, and an incoming class with huge names and talent, I feel like LSU is finally in the right position to win in 2024.
Mary Emma: As I’ve learned from many years past, never bet against Oklahoma, so it’s my pick again this year. KJ Kindler has shown time and time again that she can make a championship team no matter what gymnasts she has, and I think this year’s team is even stronger than years past.
Tara: I went with Oklahoma. It’s so hard to bet against the Sooners, especially as they continue to bring in strong recruiting classes. As others said, never count KJ Kindler out.
Katherine: I also picked Oklahoma. The Sooners lose legend Olivia Trautman this year, but with their trademark depth being offset by a strong freshman class, transfer Soraya Hawthorne, and a healthy Caitlin Smith, there’s no reason to believe they’ll suffer from it.
Alyssa: I picked Oklahoma. The Sooners have been dominant in recent years, and with this freshman class, I do not see that ending any time soon.
Savanna: Oklahoma. The Sooners have dominated for years, and I don’t expect that to change this year. We’ve seen glimpses of greatness throughout preseason, and they already look in great form.
Claire H: Oklahoma came out with the top NQS in my calculations. I would not be surprised to see the Sooners win another title this year, but personally, I’d always love to see someone new win a championship!
Mariah: I went with Oklahoma. I just don’t see a reason for the Sooners not to win it again, but I would love to be proven wrong. Seriously, nothing would make me happier.
Emily L: I picked Oklahoma. The Sooners aren’t losing too many key contributors, and those who left should be easily replaced by Caitlin Smith, Hannah Scheible, and Keira Wells. Oklahoma just looked too good last year, and I currently can’t see anyone else coming out on top.
Naomi: I picked Oklahoma. It isn’t facing any major gaps in its lineup, and I can’t see any team fielding a major challenge to it this year. However, I would love to see a new winner, and I’ll confess I’m sometimes an “anyone but Oklahoma” person, so I hope I’m proven wrong!
Looking at the top four, which will be the teams in the national final, why did you go with the teams you did?
Elizabeth: The only change I made from the 2023 team final was subbing in California for LSU—but it’s going to be SO close, as always. I just felt like California was nearly there in 2023, and it may be even better in 2024.
Julianna: For my top four, which I also believe will be the final four in the national final, I chose LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and UCLA. OU and Florida have been making consistent appearances in the team final for the past couple of years, and with LSU being my top pick, I also have UCLA, taking into consideration the strength they showed last season under a new head coach and returning high-scoring competitors that were out last season, as well as a great incoming class. I believe they will make it to the last day of championships.
Mary Emma: I had the same top four as the final in 2023, except I switched LSU and Utah. I think LSU is going to be even stronger than it was in 2023, and while I don’t think all the roster turnover will hurt Utah too much, I think LSU will still be the better team.
Tara: My top four teams were unchanged from the 2023 team final. The only difference was the order, where I put LSU at No. 2 but moved Florida and Utah down to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. LSU has a strong recruiting class coming in and a duo of strong transfers, all while maintaining most of its 2023 lineups. That, I think, will give the Tigers the advantage when it’s all said and done.
Katherine: Shocker, my teams were also the same as the ones in the 2023 final. I had Oklahoma and Florida repeating their 2023 positions while switching LSU and Utah. With LSU’s depth being back to the levels we’re used to seeing from it, I think the Tigers have a leg up over the Utes, but I believe the latter team will once again contend, even with all the offseason turmoil impacting that program.
Alyssa: I have the same top four as Elizabeth. The past couple of seasons the top four have been Florida, Oklahoma, and Utah with one other team in the mix. After watching California in Pittsburgh, I thought California would make it to the final day of competition last season, but counting a fall on bars caused the Golden Bears just to miss out. I expect that not to be the case in 2024.
Savanna: I have Oklahoma, LSU, UCLA, and Utah in my final four. The depth situation for the Tigers appears to be a thing of the past and the Bruins, while losing key pieces in Chiles and Padurariu, have consistency in other areas that could propel them to the finals. As for Utah, while the turmoil this offseason has been a hot topic, I think the pieces are still there for them to make a nationals run.
Claire H: After Oklahoma, I have California, Utah, and Florida as my top four, in that order. I was most surprised to see California at No. 2 in my calculations but even with a few different methodologies, they consistently ranked in the top two, so clearly they have some big scoring potential this year.
Mariah: My top four was Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, and Utah. Barring injury, LSU should have more depth to play with this season and has very few routines to replace. Florida on the other hand has a lot of important routines to replace from Trinity Thomas and Kayla DiCello, but they should have enough incoming routines to manage. I really went back and fourth on the final spot, but Utah always seems to sneak in, so I let its reputation persuade me.
Emily L: My final four teams are Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, and Utah. I went with LSU in second place because the Tigers have a lot of talent coming in and also aren’t losing many members from last year’s final four teams. I have Florida and Utah in the final four because even though those teams may look a little different this year, with the absences of Trinity Thomas and Kayla DiCello for the Gators and Tom Farden for the Utes, I believe these historically dominant teams will find a way into the final this year again.
Naomi: I had Oklahoma (self-explanatory), LSU based on all its gains this year, Florida as I think it has the depth to deal with the loss of Thomas and DiCello, and UCLA. I was initially going to put Utah in that spot, but with all the drama behind the scenes, I think UCLA is a more solid bet. It has a strong team this year even without Chiles and Padurariu.
Let’s expand it one more time and look at the top eight. Which teams made yours and why?
Elizabeth: Making nationals with Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, and California, I have LSU, Michigan, Alabama, and Michigan State. Like my reasoning for the top four, I feel like Michigan State has been so close recently that it has as good of a chance as any team in 2024 to qualify. That meant UCLA just misses out. However, I could easily see the Bruins making it and another team staying home—the lack of Jordan Chiles will be a thing; it’ll just depend on how big of one.
Julianna: For the top eight teams making nationals, I have my top four as well as Utah, California, Michigan State, and Kentucky. I feel like Utah will still be up in the rankings, even with the major roster shifts during the offseason, and I also think Michigan State, California, and Kentucky have been on the rise for the past couple of seasons and are showing the strengths of their teams with each new year.
Mary Emma: My next four were Michigan, UCLA, California, and Michigan State. I could definitely see those first three contend for the final, but each of them have some concerns that kept them out of the top four for me. Michigan State is a team that came so close last year, and I think 2024 might finally be the Spartans’ year.
Tara: My other four nationals teams were Michigan, California, UCLA, and Michigan State. Without Jordan Chiles and Ana Padurariu, I see UCLA taking a step back this year, but I still have the Bruins in the picture. This could be Michigan State’s year to make a run for nationals, with an experienced team and a strong class coming in. I’m giving the Spartans the edge but can see a number of teams challenging for the final spot.
Katherine: My other four Elite Eight teams were Alabama, Michigan State, Kentucky, and California. Nope, no Michigan or UCLA, but that’s more a testament to the capabilities of the preceding four than the weaknesses of those two. I am very high on the Tide and the Spartans, especially, and I think California’s freshman duo of Kyen Mayhew and Annalise Newman-Achee could be more impactful than people are betting on.
Alyssa: My top eight in order were Oklahoma, Utah, California, Florida, LSU, UCLA, Michigan State and Alabama. LSU and UCLA look like teams that will make a nationals return. As for Michigan State, the Spartans continue to be a team on the rise, and I believe this is the year the trip to Fort Worth as a team will be most possible. Alabama had a new head coach last year and only narrowly missed a nationals berth. With the great freshman class, I expect to see the Tide back.
Savanna: Rounding out my Elite Eight are Florida, California, Michigan State, and Alabama. Florida’s losing a LOT of routines and star power, and I don’t think it’s something that can easily be replaced. California’s freshman power duo should give the Golden Bears a leg up while the Spartans and the Crimson Tide both have lots of newcomers and returners that can push them over the finish line to get to nationals.
Claire H: In addition to my top four, I have LSU, Michigan, Alabama, and UCLA rounding out the top eight. LSU was really close to the top four in my calculations, just barely losing out to Florida. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the top four instead. My methodology struggles a bit when it comes to depth and probably counted some lower scoring routines more often than we should expect to see this season, assuming everyone stays healthy. Losing Chiles (and Padurariu, but that happened after my poll was submitted) will be tough for UCLA, but I believe they still have the talent to make nationals.
Mariah: In addition to Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, and Utah, I had UCLA, Alabama, Michigan State, and Kentucky making nationals. Picking my top eight was HARD, but the line had to be drawn somewhere. I was one of the few people who predicted Kentucky would make it last year, so I decided to bet on it again. Michigan State has been on a huge upswing, and if it doesn’t make it to nationals this year, I would expect it to very soon. I may have underestimated Cal and overestimated UCLA a bit here, but I think there’s a great group of around 10 teams that are fighting for the top eight, so there’s going to be some teams that are certainly good enough that aren’t going to make the cut.
Emily L: My other four members of the Elite Eight are Auburn, Alabama, UCLA, and Michigan State. I think both Auburn and Alabama’s freshmen will be able to help them make it back to nationals. UCLA was tricky for me, but ultimately I decided that the talent from the other teams will be able to keep the Bruins out of the final. Finally, we have Michigan State. I’m so excited to see what the Spartans do this year, and I think it’s their year to finally make it to nationals.
Naomi: I have California and Utah at No. 5 and No. 6, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made the final four with the right lineups and hits on the day. Then I had Kentucky and Denver, which may be a bit optimistic, but I’m always a believer in those teams and I want to see it happen. Realistically though, I think Michigan State and Alabama are better bets.
Now we’re going all the way down to the regionals bubble teams where the most variety tends to occur across our ballots. Why did you include the teams you did?
Elizabeth: Deciding who will make regionals and who will just miss gets harder and harder each year. For 2024, I have North Carolina, San Jose State, West Virginia, and Ball State squeezing in with Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Iowa State, and Utah State just outside. All four of my regionals bubble teams have shown an upward trajectory recently that I feel like will only continue. And as for my near-misses, it was more about the others being stronger than these not being good enough. I can’t wait to watch this fight in March.
Julianna: Rounding out my top 36, I have Boise State, Western Michigan, BYU, Nebraska, West Virginia, N.C. State, North Carolina, Towson, and Ball State. Where I ranked these teams was heavily dependent on where they finished last season, as well as who they may have lost or gained for this coming season. I feel like some of these teams always finish around these rankings, but others like Towson and North Carolina have either been in those last spots or just missed it; with what they are bringing in and what they showed last season, I believe they will be moving up these rankings as the season goes on.
Mary Emma: My last four in were Boise State, West Virginia, Southern Utah, and Clemson. I also considered Ball State, Rutgers, San Jose State, and Central Michigan for the top 36. It’s always so hard to fill in those last few teams because it really could go many different ways. I always like to make my No. 36 a somewhat feelings pick—not an outlandish, never-going-to-happen choice but a team that I genuinely think could make it to regionals and would be absolutely thrilled if it did. This year that team for me is Clemson. It would be really cool for a first-year program to qualify for regionals right off the bat, and I think the Tigers have the potential to do just that.
Tara: I went with West Virginia, North Carolina, N.C. State, and Towson as my final four teams in the top 36. I initially had Ball State at No. 36, but adding Clemson into the back half of the top 36 meant someone had to come out. Unfortunately for a still-solid Ball State team, that was the cut. All four of these teams have potential but will need to hit when it counts. Just outside of the top 36, I had Ball State, Central Michigan, San Jose State, and UC Davis—all teams that have potential to sneak into the top 36.
Katherine: I had Ball State, Clemson, Towson, and UC Davis as my last four in. I know Clemson may be a controversial pick that high, but I think the Tigers are capable of coming out strong right out of the gate with their high-profile transfers leading the way. As for Towson, I think the Tigers are set to continue their rise of multiple seasons right now, and I think UC Davis will finally make the jump behind them after last year’s disappointment.
Alyssa: The bubble is always tough to call, but this year the teams that I had making it to regionals include Western Michigan, North Carolina, BYU, Nebraska, Boise State, Towson, San Jose State, and Clemson, with teams like Central Michigan and UC Davis missing out. I was looking at the scoring potential of the bubble teams, and these were the teams that I think will make the top 36. Clemson was the most difficult to judge without having prior years to look at, but what makes Clemson different as a new program is all of the transfers that have competition experience.
Savanna: I hate making bubble predictions because every team is so good! However, I have Clemson, San Jose State, N.C. State, and Iowa State sneaking into the top 36. It was a hard call, but Clemson’s transfers are too high profile not to consider. San Jose State has a killer freshman class that will make waves, and the Wolfpack, although it returns a few key names, is losing some routines that make me a little concerned. As for Iowa State, it’s a rebuilding year, but what we have seen on social media gives me hope that the Cyclones should make it back to regionals after missing out last year.
Claire H: I have BYU, Western Michigan, Ball State, and San Jose State being the last four in, with N.C. State being the team that made it last year that’s not making the cut in my current poll. These are not teams I follow as closely, so I’m sticking with what the data says for this one and we’ll see how it turns out!
Mariah: My last four in were Boise State, North Carolina, San Jose State, and Clemson. Ball State, Central Michigan, West Virginia, and Utah State were my first four out but could certainly still be contenders. Admittedly, Clemson is a bit of a gamble, but it has a lot of experienced athletes on the team despite it being a new program, and I could definitely see it challenging for a spot at regionals in its inaugural season.
Emily L: My final four in the top 36 are Towson, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Boise State. It hurt me to leave Clemson out of regionals, but I think that it might be tricky to make regionals in its first year of competition, especially against a team like North Carolina that is starting to hit its stride. I would love to be proven wrong and see the Tigers in regionals, though!
Naomi: Watching the bubble is always so stressful! I have Towson, BYU, Ball State, and North Carolina. I think they have the lineup potential to squeak into regionals, but in my heart I’ll always be a believer in Clemson.
Are there any other surprises—whether it’s a big drop or big leap—featured elsewhere in your top 36?
Elizabeth: Honestly, it depends on your personal viewpoint on some of these teams, but I wouldn’t say there are any major surprises. I have Kentucky just outside the nationals picture, and Georgia up at No. 12 (that freshman class is a killer).
Julianna: I think the only thing that might be surprising is having Auburn at No. 21. Auburn lost a lot of big names and scores this season, and with where it finished in the 2024 season, I felt like this would be a realistic ranking as the team is in a building period again.
Mary Emma: I have Georgia at No. 14, primarily because I’m excited to see what Lily Smith and Ady Wahl contribute. I’m fully prepared to be wrong about that one though! I also dropped Southern Utah a lot—all the way down to No. 35—primarily because its outgoing class will be hard to replace.
Tara: While it’s hard to see how Clemson will fare in its first season, the talent on that roster is there. For that reason, I conservatively placed the Tigers at No. 31. My biggest move down was Southern Utah to No. 29, as it will be hard to replace the contributions of its large outgoing class. I also have Washington closer to its regionals performance than the rest of the season, thanks to a strong incoming class.
Katherine: Like Elizabeth, my rankings aren’t that surprising to me!
Alyssa: I did not make any drastic changes with my rankings, but the main ones would be the switch up with who makes nationals with Alabama and Michigan State in and Denver and Kentucky out. I also dropped Michigan to ninth after the Wolverines have struggled to get past regionals in recent years and the loss of Natalie Wojcik and Abby Heiskell.
Savanna: The biggest surprise to me was Southern Utah dropping out of my rankings entirely. It loses a lot of routines, and I’m not entirely sure how the freshmen are going to contribute just yet. I would love to be wrong!
Claire H: Clemson ended up at 25th in my poll based on its transfers’ scores and freshmen predictions. Whether it can execute to its potential as a brand new team will be interesting to watch for sure.
Mariah: I have Michigan and Cal missing nationals and Clemson in my top 36, but otherwise I think my ranking is pretty straightforward.
Emily L: I also have Michigan missing nationals. Losing Wojcik, Heiskell, and Koulos will hurt, and I’m not sure that the incoming freshmen can fill those big shoes quite yet.
Naomi: I have Michigan missing nationals. I just don’t think the Wojcik-Heiskell gap can be filled by anyone on the current roster. I also dropped Auburn quite a bit. I think the loss of Sunisa Lee hit it hard last season, and after Goburne’s departure, I think this is going to be more of a rebuilding season.
Finally, we know things change quickly in the gym world. How would you change your ranking now based on anything you’ve seen from teams since you submitted your poll?
Elizabeth: I really wanted to put Missouri higher than No. 15. This isn’t based on anything recent I’ve seen from the team, but 15th just seems low for a strong Tigers squad. I just couldn’t fit it in when I felt the other teams in front were just a touch stronger. There’s also the Clemson factor. I could see the (other) Tigers making regionals, but I could also see struggles in their inaugural season. There are just so many unknowns that I took the easy way out and didn’t include them in my rankings. I can’t wait to be proven wrong.
Julianna: I’m sure my thoughts will change as time goes on and we see more of what these teams are capable of during the season, but I really wanted to put Georgia higher! Georgia has definitely been building over the past couple of years, and with its incoming class, I feel like it really does have the potential to get to the higher rankings it was previously achieving. I also agree with Elizabeth; after watching Clemson, it has a real shot of making the top 36. There are a lot of great transfers who have a good amount of competition experience and a big group of newcomers who have shown their talent thus far. The biggest test will come when the team actually competes and more importantly how the gymnasts compete together to get into this top 36 ranking.
Mary Emma: Since I procrastinated finalizing my rankings until the last minute, it hasn’t been very long since I turned my poll in, so I don’t think there’s anything I would change. The McCusker injury is a big blow for Florida, but I think I’d still keep the Gators second anyway.
Tara: I don’t think I’d change much right now, but who’s to say in the coming weeks. With the news of Riley McCusker’s injury, I may have toyed with the idea of switching Florida and Utah, but I think the Gators will be fine. Luckily, I submitted my poll after the Padurariu deferral news, so I was able to take that into account.
Katherine: I agree with Julianna that Georgia could realistically finish higher with that incredible freshman class. I have a hard time envisioning it based on recent years, but I think I’ll have to come to grips with it soon.
Alyssa: I had Florida fourth before the McCusker injury and probably would have bumped Florida to five and LSU to fourth had I known before submitting. However, it is very plausible that the injury will not translate to a lower ranking. I did submit my poll before the Padurariu news, but I would have kept that ranking the same.
Savanna: I don’t think I would change much of anything. I did submit before McCusker’s injury, Padurariu’s deferment, and Tom Farden’s resignation were made public, but I don’t think those would’ve changed my rankings.
Claire H: Similar to many of the people above me, the McCusker, Padurariu, and Farden announcements happened after I submitted. I believe Florida and UCLA should be pretty resilient to these changes, but Utah I’m more unsure of.
Mariah: Like many of the other editors, I submitted my poll before a lot of major announcements happened. Maybe I would bump Utah out of the national final, but there isn’t another team that I feel strongly enough about moving into its place.
Emily L: Tom Farden’s resignation was announced after I’d already submitted my poll, so I’m interested to see how this season plays out for Utah. I do believe these gymnasts are incredible and capable of big things, but their coach’s quick departure has to make at least a little bit of an impact, no matter their feelings about the situation.
Naomi: I have Georgia at 12th based on, well, Georgia’s track record with potential versus actual results. But if this is the year Georgia’s freshmen perform to the potential they have, it could certainly go up in the rankings. I also submitted my ranking before the McCusker injury, but I think Florida has the depth to deal with that since she’s a one-to-two eventer at most.
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