This upcoming season, the first class of CGN five-star recruits will officially be seniors! Over the last 3 seasons, we have seen a total of 54 former five-star recruits find their way onto college rosters. While 54 athletes is still a limited data set, we decided to see if any exciting trends were forming related to the performance of five-star recruits based on their respective teams. Have specific teams capitalized on their top-level talent more than others? Are there teams that have struggled more to develop five-star recruits, or struggled with keeping them healthy? What do these possible trends mean for the incoming freshman class?
For the first time this year, recruits were rerated following their final high school seasons in order to better predict their college performance. Many athletes have their best seasons leading up to college, so it’s no surprise that the incoming freshman class has more former five-star recruits than ever before with 38.
At CGN we define the typical five-star recruit as someone who is, “one of the most promising gymnasts in her class. She’s prepared to compete successful college routines on all four events, and she’s someone we think could step in and make a difference at any top-10 program today.” The list of former five-star recruits includes some of the biggest names in the sport like Olympic gold medalists Jade Carey, Jordan Chiles, and Suni Lee, so it’s safe to say the expectations are quite high.
It’s also no surprise that top schools, such as UCLA with six, and Utah and Florida with five, have historically brought in the most former five-star recruits. The Gators and the Bruins are each adding two more with their current freshmen classes, while Michigan jumps into the top spot by adding five former five-star recruits for a total of nine, but what does the data say about their actual performance?
Former Five-Star Recruit Freshman Season Performance
| Event | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All-Around |
| High | 9.919 | 9.935 | 9.898 | 9.881 | 9.907 |
| Weighted Avg | 9.836 | 9.820 | 9.807 | 9.856 | 9.830 |
| NQS | 9.869 | 9.885 | 9.861 | 9.895 | 9.874 |
| Lineup % | 65.80% | 62.28% | 54.86% | 54.69% | 59.41% |
During their freshman seasons, former five-star recruits have historically performed very well with an average high of around 9.9, an overall weighted average of 9.83, an average NQS of around 9.875, and an average lineup frequency of around 60%. Additionally, they have competed on an average of 2.894 events during the season, and they competed enough times to earn a NQS on 2.532 events. Based on the MVP rating on Road to Nationals, which adds up the total number of points an athlete contributed to their team throughout the season, former five-star recruits fall within the top 5 most valuable on their respective teams at an average of 4.605. Of note, this data does not include known season-ending injuries. What schools stand out as outliers from this data?
Eight schools have only had one five-star recruit over the last three seasons: Denver, Fisk, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio State, Oregon State, Penn State, and Washington. All of these former five-star recruits have been at least a top-five contributor for their team during the entirety of their careers. In fact, the majority–Denver, Fisk, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon State, and Penn State–have seen their headline recruits be the top contributors for their teams as freshmen and often compete in the all-around 100% of the time. Upperclassmen such as Jade Carey, Morgan Price, Payton Harris, and Ava Pierahita have maintained this caliber of performance throughout their careers thus far. No school that has recruited multiple five-star recruits has used them in every lineup at every meet as freshmen, but that has occurred more often than not with this group of teams.
This trend makes a lot of sense. There are far more lineup opportunities for top-level talent on mid-ranked teams than on rosters full of elite athletes. There’s also likely more urgency in developing that talent from the start because there aren’t necessarily comparable caliber routines on the roster already. For some recruits, the guarantee of competing all-around every season of their career and being the star of their team may be a bigger potential upside than a possible national championship.
In some cases, these athletes may score slightly lower than their peers at higher-ranked schools, but that’s likely due to the difference in competition for lineup spots and not inferior quality. Someone with a 9.85-caliber routine on bars likely just wouldn’t make the lineup at a school like Oklahoma or Florida, but that’s a very solid mid-lineup score at a school like Iowa for instance. San Jose State is the only school bringing in its first five-star recruit this season in Madison Gustitus. If the current trend continues, she is likely to be a star contributor for the Spartans for years to come.
When looking at teams with a bit more data, Oklahoma, LSU, and Michigan State stand out as teams that have made the most of their talent, but for different reasons. Michigan State’s two former five-star recruits have scored similarly to their peers during their freshman seasons but they have both been consistent all-around competitors and appeared in 96.43% of lineups. Even later in their careers they have maintained a similar level of performance as top three contributors for the Spartans and have certainly been a big part of Michigan State’s meteoric rise in the standings over the past couple of seasons.
This season, Michigan State adds one more former five-star recruit in Amy Doyle. The competition for lineup spots may become more competitive with more talent on the roster but that can only hint towards good things ahead for Michigan State.
Oklahoma and LSU, however, have only used their five-star freshmen in 48.44% and 30.47% of lineups, respectively, but the scores have been much higher. With former elite stars such as Faith Torres and Konnor McClain headlining the rosters and recent national titles to their names, it’s safe to say that Oklahoma and LSU are using their top-level talent to the fullest. There just happens to be more competition for lineup spots.
This season, both teams are bringing in top-level talent that would likely find themselves competing in the all-around at almost any other school, but competition will be fierce, and both teams have the depth to ease freshmen into lineups slowly.
North Carolina is an interesting case. The Tar Heels have used their two former five-star recruits in more lineups than average as freshmen at 70.19%. Both have also competed in the all-around at some point and been a top 4 contributor on the team throughout their careers. However, the scores have been considerably lower, with an average high of only 9.875 and an average NQS of only 9.800 during their freshman seasons.
Even with top talent on the roster, North Carolina has struggled to make it out of the regionals bubble the last few seasons and getting a bit more out of its highly ranked recruits may be just the solution. North Carolina has no former five-star athletes in its current freshman class, so we will have to wait until they welcome Sydney Seabrooks in the class of 2025 to see if there’s improvement.
California and Michigan have both struggled with developing their five-star talent. California has less historical data to draw from, so we wouldn’t call it an emergency, but Michigan has some work to do. California has only had two former five-star recruits on its roster and both were freshmen last season. They only appeared in 22.06% of possible lineups and averaged only a single event apiece.
We didn’t see any routines from Annalise Newman-Achee and it was unclear if she was injured or not. We consistently saw high-scoring vault and floor routines from Kyen Mayhew, but she still only finished the season as the seventh most valuable contributor due to the Golden Bears’ recent tendency to rely heavily on all-arounders. Unfortunately, British Olympian, freshman Ondine Achampong, is coming off an injury, so we may have to wait a while longer before we can jump to any conclusions about what might be going on in Berkley.
Similar to California, the Wolverines have also relied heavily on all-arounders, specifically upperclassmen, in recent seasons. However, as those contributors have slowly started to graduate they have truly struggled to fill the lineup holes with similar caliber routines. They finished last season at a disappointing 19th after having won the national championship only a few years prior. A slide down the rankings like that is always concerning and the lack of underclassmen development is certainly a possible contributor.
As freshmen, former five-star recruits were only used in lineups on 16.22% of occasions and averaged only 1.333 events. Paige Thaxton did not compete in her freshman season, but it’s unclear if it was due to injury or not. However, even her sophomore contributions don’t stack up to the overall average for five-star recruits with a lineup frequency of only 23.08% and an average high score of only 9.8125 over her two events.
Kaylen Morgan showed some promise on vault as a freshman, but she spent most of last season injured and is now no longer on the roster, so we will likely never know if she could have reached her full potential at Michigan. Jacey Vore has ranked as high as the sixth-highest contributor on the team and has definitely been the Wolverine’s most successful former five-star recruit thus far, but we can’t help but think there’s more untapped potential there.
Michigan will have a true test this season as it brings a massive group of five former five-star recruits to Ann Arbor. There are a lot of lineup spots to be filled and many will be waiting with bated breath to see if Michigan can actually manage to fill them.
As far as injuries go, there really hasn’t been a particular team that has seemed to struggle more than any other with keeping their top-level recruits healthy, but it’s possible with a bit more data we could see a trend develop in the future.
As we gain a new incoming freshman class, it will be intriguing to see if these trends hold. Will teams like Michigan turn the corner in terms of performance and development? Or will teams like Oklahoma, LSU, and Michigan State continue to set the bar for leveraging 5-star recruits?
