The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 1

It’s finally the first meet week of the 2024 season! It’s a light slate this week but an exciting one nevertheless, with four sessions of the Mean Girls Super 16 meet, as well as a couple of other fun non-conference matchups around the rest of the country. Which teams will start 2024 off with a bang and which will take a bit of time to warm up in the hopes of peaking at the perfect time in April? We’ll find out Friday!

Must-Watch Meets

Super 16

Session 1 with Denver, Illinois, San Jose State, and Washington: Friday, Jan. 5 at 4 p.m. ET | YouTube

Prediction: 91.89% Denver, 5.68% Illinois, 1.97% Washington, 0.46% San Jose State

The season’s first quad meet features underdog challengers from four different conferences, with Denver a heavy favorite after making a run to nationals last postseason. Jessica Hutchinson moves into the sole spotlight for the Pioneers as they adjust to losing Lynnzee Brown, while Illini-great Mia Takekawa is back for a bonus year and should figure into the all-around conversation. Also keep an eye on Washington’s top-10 freshman class, especially former five-star recruit Kristin Lin, and San Jose State’s Jada Mazury.

Session 2 with Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State, and Oklahoma: Friday, Jan. 5 at 10 p.m. ET | YouTube

Prediction: 72.38% Oklahoma, 15.14% Michigan, 8.74% Kentucky, 3.74% Michigan State

Phew… What a lineup! We get the back-to-back reigning champs, the newly minted Elite Eight Wildcats, plus two of the hottest teams in the Big Ten. The Sooners are without a doubt likely to walk away with this one, but that’s about all that seems certain. Kentucky lost a lot of firepower after last season, but strong freshmen means it might not lose much ground and makes the fight for second anyone’s game. Betting against the Wolverines is also foolish; don’t forget that in their 2021 title win, it was Oklahoma they eclipsed. While the Spartans are the longest shot, they’re a group that returns almost every 2023 routine, and the freshmen are a strong group. This session is so stacked it would be easy to start reading postseason implications into the final scores, so keep a firm grip on the fact that it’s only week one.

Additional notes about the predictions: Oklahoma junior Danielle Sievers was seen in a boot at the team’s December intrasquad. However, since then, she has been featured in Instagram Story videos doing dance throughs on floor, sans boot. If she can compete, the Sooners’ win percentage goes up to 77%. Additionally, if Michigan can manage to outscore Oklahoma on beam, its win percentage soars to 40%, so keep an eye out for that event in particular.

Session 3 with BYU, Minnesota, Oregon State, and Southern Utah: Saturday, Jan. 6 at 3 p.m. ET | YouTube 

Prediction: 79.49% Oregon State, 18.86% Minnesota, 1.00% Southern Utah, 0.65% BYU

The data says the Beavers should take this session handily. Jade Carey returns in a limited role due to Olympic preparations, but transfer Sage Thompson and the incoming freshmen should fill in her missing routines. However, each team will look to make a push for the upset. Minnesota’s freshman class comes in with five former three-star recruits ready to make a splash, while Southern Utah brings in 12 newcomers, highlighted by Brinlee Christensen, who has had a strong preseason. BYU, the newest member of the Big 12, could be a sneaky competitor; it returns two of its highest NQS scores in Anyssa Alvarado and Elease Rollins, and brings in a freshman class that should challenge for lineup spots immediately.

Additional notes about the predictions: Jade Carey is without a doubt Oregon State’s most valuable gymnast—and it shows up in the predictions too. Without Carey on any event, the Beavers’ win percentage drops all the way down to 49%, putting them neck and neck with Minnesota at a 46% chance in this scenario. However, should Carey compete on at least bars and beam, Oregon State has a 69% chance of winning.

Session 4 with Alabama, Auburn, California, and UCLA: Saturday, Jan. 6 at 9 p.m. ET | YouTube

Prediction: 58.30% California, 20.84% Alabama, 20.83% UCLA, 0.03% Auburn

The final session of the Super 16 promises to be worth the price of admission with not one, but two pairs of in-state rivals. Conference implications aside, all four of these teams have qualified to nationals within the last two seasons and boast an imposing mix of new and veteran talent. 

Both Cal and UCLA are coming off record-breaking seasons that came to an unsatisfying end at the NCAA semifinals. However, with minimal lineup turnover and a pair of former five-star recruits added to the roster, the Golden Bears are the odds-on favorites to win here. The Bruins are poised for another strong season under second-year head coach Janelle McDonald, but with superstar Jordan Chiles and Ana Padurariu both deferring for the Paris Olympics, they have less margin for error (though adding former Florida All-American Nya Reed to the roster should help).

Similarly, the Crimson Tide could pull off the upset if everyone hits. In addition to a returning class of fifth-years led by perennial All-American Luisa Blanco, it boasts one of the top-rated freshman classes in the country. And, don’t sleep on the Tigers: After losing stars Sunisa Lee and Derrian Gobourne, Auburn is the undisputed dark horse in this race, meaning it has the ability to apply pressure to keep things interesting.

Additional notes about the predictions: Alabama freshman Jamison Sears, the No. 1 recruit in her class coming to college, has been dealing with a minor injury, only performing on bars at the team’s December intrasquad. If she isn’t at full strength on her best events and doesn’t compete, Alabama’s win chance drops from 21% to 16%. As for UCLA, if it can outscore the competition on either bars or beam, it’ll have a 42% chance of winning the meet, dropping Cal’s chances down to 41%.

Upset Alert

Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina

Friday, Jan. 5 at 7:30 p.m. ET | ACCNx

Prediction: 45.67% Ball State, 41.95% North Carolina, 11.44% Utah State, 0.94% Rutgers

Four conferences represented in a quad this early in the season is the perfect recipe for an upset in Chapel Hill, and our data says to keep an eye on Ball State for just that. North Carolina, Utah State, and Rutgers will all be eager to show the strength of their freshman classes alongside high impact transfers and injury returners. We’ll see the college debut of four four-star recruits in the Tar Heels’ Neve King and Jessica Naranjo, Utah State’s Mya Witte, and Rutgers’ sophomore Rachael Riley, while Ball State will look to strong returning scorers from all four of its seniors.

Additional notes about the predictions: As things stand now, the data says Ball State has a chance to upset the home team at this week one quad. However, if Tar Heel freshman Neve King is able to compete—she was seen on crutches with an unknown injury on Dec. 14—North Carolina actually overtakes the Cardinals with a 55% chance of securing the W to Ball State’s 35%.

Wondering how we came up with the predictions for each meet? Read more about our methodology.

There’s Other Stuff Happening Too

We’d be remiss to let a preview for week one go by without bringing up these additional points.

• It’s our first time seeing LSU’s much-hyped squad in a counting meet, and if Gym 101 was any indication, the Tigers have reloaded with plenty of routines to stack its lineups. It will be interesting to see who makes the cut against the Buckeyes, who return Big Ten Gymnasts to Watch Payton Harris and Tory Vetter. They could get big scores in an SEC environment to open up what should be another formidable campaign.
• While Utah will be easily favored to take the win at home to open the season, Boise State should give it a good run. The Broncos return a pair of individual nationals qualifiers who both earned perfect 10s in 2023—Emily Lopez on bars and Courtney Blackson on vault. They will be challenging the likes of Red Rocks Grace McCallum and Maile O’Keefe for the individual event titles.
• The top-ranked freshman class will make its debut on Saturday when Georgia takes on visiting N.C. State in Athens. Former five-star recruit Lily Smith stunned in the Gymdogs’ preseason intrasquad and looks to be the focal point of a squad looking to continue its climb up the rankings.
• Iowa State is a team to watch this year: With a new head coach and a great crop of newcomers, the Cyclones are looking to turn the page on a tough 2023 season and bring new energy into the new year. It’s a slight underdog against Nebraska, but this meet could go either way. 
• While Penn State has a pretty good chance at winning Friday’s Keystone Classic, it will be interesting to see what the other three teams are capable of in their season openers after not qualifying to regionals in 2023. Pittsburgh and Temple have new head coaches, and Penn has a freshman class full of three and four-star recruits that are likely going to make a splash for the Quakers this year.

Fantasy Corner

If you’re playing fantasy gymnastics this year, you want to do the absolute best you can do. Right? We have you covered with tips and tricks all season long in Fantasy Central. Managing editor Emily Minehart and data editor Dara Tan, will be bringing you the latest updates on injuries, scoring statistics, sneaky waiver wire targets, and more.

CGN Pick’em

Brandis

• Super 16 Session 1: Denver
• Super 16 Session 2: Oklahoma
• Super 16 Session 3: Oregon State
• Super 16 Session 4: California
• Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina: North Carolina

Claire

• Super 16 Session 1: Denver
• Super 16 Session 2: Oklahoma
• Super 16 Session 3: Oregon State
• Super 16 Session 4: Alabama
• Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina: North Carolina

Elizabeth

• Super 16 Session 1: Denver
• Super 16 Session 2: Oklahoma
• Super 16 Session 3: Oregon State
• Super 16 Session 4: Alabama
• Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina: North Carolina

Emily M

• Super 16 Session 1: Denver
• Super 16 Session 2: Oklahoma
• Super 16 Session 3: Minnesota
• Super 16 Session 4: Alabama
• Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina: North Carolina

Rebecca

• Super 16 Session 1: Denver
• Super 16 Session 2: Oklahoma
• Super 16 Session 3: Oregon State
• Super 16 Session 4: California
• Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina: Utah State

Week 1 Guest: Jenna

• Super 16 Session 1: Denver
• Super 16 Session 2: Oklahoma
• Super 16 Session 3: Oregon State
• Super 16 Session 4: Alabama
• Ball State, Rutgers, and Utah State at North Carolina: Ball State

Want to join in on the predictions? Tag us on social media with your picks then tune into the meets to see how well you do!

How to Watch

Looking for more info on how to watch your favorite gymnasts and teams in action? Head to our master schedule for all the scoring, video, and live blog links, or head to our annual “How to Watch” article (coming soon!) to see what platforms you have access to with various streaming services.

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Article by the editors of College Gym News