The NCAA Report Card: March 30, 2022

While the official rankings are a great indicator of how a team is scoring, they don’t always tell the full story of how a team is actually doing. Overscoring, injuries, upgrades and downgrades are all things a score can’t necessarily tell you about, so I will. In my biweekly Report Card, I will grade our top teams on each event while giving feedback on what’s working well and what needs to improve to make the Honor Roll – where you want to be to truly contend for an NCAA championship.

With regionals beginning today and the seeded teams getting into the action tomorrow, it’s time for a quick refresher in a pre-regionals post-conference issue of the report card. The grading this week is again strictly based on numbers, with an NQS of 49.600 or higher warranting an “A+” and grades decreasing with each tenth the NQS does. As for analysis, it’s short and sweet with the regional outlook for each team with less than 24 hours until first vault.

Top of the Class

Florida

Vault: A

Bars: A

Beam: A+

Floor: A+

Regionals Outlook: Winning the SEC championship meet was a big step for Florida in dispelling its recent postseason woes, and that gives it great momentum heading into regionals. Despite being No. 2 the Gators’ simulated chances at winning a natty are seven percent greater than any other teams’, putting increased expectations on them to win the SEC’s first championship since 2015.

Honor Roll

Michigan

Vault: A+

Bars: A

Beam: B+

Floor: A+

Regionals Outlook: Although now with increased expectations, the defending national champions enter regionals in the same situation as last season—statistical underdogs but undoubtedly in the title conversation. If the Wolverines can find a way to break 49.500 on beam for the first time this season, their chances at again beating those odds will significantly increase despite the tricky regionals draw.

Oklahoma

Vault: A-

Bars: A

Beam: A

Floor: A

Regionals Outlook: The highest-ever NQS-earning Sooners have a favorable path to nationals thanks to their No. 1 position and home arena advantage for regionals. Oklahoma shouldn’t need an outstanding performance to advance, but it’s coming in firing on all cylinders anyways after a 198.200 at Big 12s. Regionals for the Sooners will be about finalizing lineups for nationals and seeing how many events we can expect out of Olivia Trautman.

Utah

Vault: A-

Bars: A-

Beam: A+

Floor: A

Regionals Outlook: The definite No. 4 among the four favorites took an important step in keeping themselves in that group by hitting 198 to win Pac-12s just as the other conference winners did. Utah’s goal at regionals will be finding a way to elevate its vault and bars to the level of its beam and floor while avoiding an upset from quite a few worthy challengers.

Plenty of Potential

Alabama

Vault: A-

Bars: A

Beam: A-

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: In a conference championship weekend where many teams stumbled, the Crimson Tide’s reputation as a postseason team shone as it hung around with national title favorite Florida and posted the highest non-winning score of any major conference team. Alabama still isn’t maximizing its vault difficulty, but that actually makes it more dangerous should landings be there at the right time.

Auburn

Vault: A-

Bars: A-

Beam: A-

Floor: A

Regionals Outlook: The already-historic year for Auburn looks likely to continue, as its record-breaking regular season has earned itself an incredibly favorable path to nationals. Statistically, the Tigers have an 82 percent chance at making it to Fort Worth—the highest odds of any of the two-seeds—and have the benefit of competing at home, where they didn’t lose earlier this season when they already faced Florida.

LSU

Vault: A-

Bars: A-

Beam: A-

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: While three events went well at SECs, the bars blunders spelled disaster for the Tigers, who fell from No. 5 and are now in the very competitive Raleigh Regional. Replicating that performance won’t see LSU advance to nationals, but it still holds the upper hand with two good meets likely enough to get it through.

Room for Improvement

Arizona State

Vault: B

Bars: B

Beam: B

Floor: B-

Regionals Outlook: With a disappointing fifth-place finish at Pac-12s the Sun Devils slid a few ranking positions and find themselves in a tough round two session with Oklahoma and Arkansas, who’s ranked just two spots behind them at 18th. But, if Arizona State does make it through, it already has a head-to-head victory over California to make snagging a nationals spot look more realistic.

California

Vault: B

Bars: A-

Beam: B+

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: The Golden Bears put forth one of the best performances overall of any program during conference championship weekend and were able to move up one crucial spot. A return trip to nationals is much more feasible as California now needs to knock off Minnesota instead of Auburn at Auburn, but it still faces an uphill battle to do so with the lack of vault difficulty holding it back slightly.

Denver

Vault: B-

Bars: B+

Beam: B+

Floor: B

Regionals Outlook: Putting up only five on vault and bars shows how dramatic the injury situation has gotten for Denver, but it continues to be resilient and put up competitive scores. Statistics hate the Pioneers due to their injuries, with a majority of simulations resulting in them being bested by Ohio State in the only projected round two upset.

Kentucky

Vault: B+

Bars: A-

Beam: B+

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: The Wildcats’ beam troubles showed up once again at SECs and unfortunately lost them a better overall ranking and more favorable path to nationals. Still, Kentucky’s regular season scores are competitive enough for the regional final, and it’ll likely be two familiar faces to overcome if beam can get five good numbers.

Michigan State

Vault: B

Bars: B

Beam: B+

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: Despite being 12th overall, the Spartans’ 17-percent chance to make nationals ranks second among the three seeds, and they’re carrying great momentum after a surprise second-place finish at Big Tens. A trendy upset pick, Michigan State could bring into question the relevance of postseason experience with another standout performance.

Minnesota

Vault: B+

Bars: A-

Beam: B-

Floor: A+

Regionals Outlook: Beam once again failed the Gophers at Big Tens in a disappointing fourth-place showing, and they now have a bad performance to dispel in an already tricky No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup at regionals. It’s obvious where Minnesota has to improve, but hitting beam two meets in a row hasn’t been a strength all season.

Missouri

Vault: B

Bars: B

Beam: B+

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: In an unexpected but spicy plot twist, Missouri gets a familiar matchup with LSU at regionals having already bested the other Tigers twice head to head this season. They’re a big reason why the Raleigh Regional is on upset-watch, and if Amari Celestine and Amaya Marshall have good days on vault and bars, they could complete the Tiger trilogy in 2022.

Oregon State

Vault: B

Bars: B-

Beam: B+

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: At this point it’s hard to imagine nationals without Jade Carey, with the question coming down to whether she’ll be competing alone or alongside her teammates. What’s holding the Beavers back is bars, where their best totals are tenths shy of the averages of other teams in their regional field.

UCLA

Vault: B

Bars: B

Beam: B+

Floor: A-

Regionals Outlook: The 198 the Bruins put up at the beginning of the month is terrifying to the Raleigh Regional as it proves UCLA is a legitimate threat if its top five roster once again competes like a top five team. However, the Bruins haven’t yet been above 197 away from home with inconsistency plaguing this team all season long.

READ THIS NEXT: Data Deep Dive: Simulating the 2022 Postseason

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Article by Brandis Heffner

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