2018 NCAA University Park Regional Preview

It’s finally that time of the year! We know where each of the top 36 teams in the country will travel to compete for a chance at advancing to nationals. In the days leading up to the championships, we’ll preview and analyze each of the six regionals, discussing which teams have a chance of moving on and which individual could qualify as well. Next up is the University Park regional, featuring No. 5 Florida, No. 8 Washington, No. 17 Arizona State, No. 27 West Virginia, No. 29 Penn State and No. 30 New Hampshire.

Don’t forget to enter your postseason predictions in the 2018 NCAA Gym Bracket Challenge! The deadline for submissions is Friday, April 6 at 7 p.m. ET.

By numbers alone, Florida and Washington look to have a fairly clear path to nationals at this meet. Florida, despite a season that has been bumpy by its lofty standards, shouldn’t be considered a major upset threat; its recent “miss” days have given it results in the high 196s, which would likely be unreachable under postseason scoring for all but one other team. The Gators definitely feel the loss of senior Kennedy Baker to a midseason achilles tear, but they can flourish under the steady leadership of junior Alicia Boren and take advantage of Alex McMurtry’s star power in her last collegiate meets. They also have a comfortable slate of routines from underclassmen, most of whom are capable of competing the all around. Florida’s capacity is undiminished from previous years; for the Gators, it’s all about consistency, and regionals provides them with a great opportunity to pull everything together and prove that they’re a true title contender.

Washington headed to postseason as the No. 13 team last year, and the Huskies will be grateful for a cushier draw as they attempt to return to St. Louis. They’ve established a reputation as one of the most consistent teams in the country this year—with their only two sub-196.000 scores coming from the first weekend of season—and could very well be in the hunt for their fifth 197.000+ of 2018. The Huskies are in the comfortable position of having seven great routines per apparatus, so lineups do change from week to week; in particular, watch for Evanni Roberson and Maya Washington to potentially return to the vault and bars lineups, respectively. Led by senior star Hailey Burleson and top-10 beam and floor rotations, the GymDawgs’ primary task will be to hold steady and register a high 196 that should hold off the rest of the field.

Arizona State has the ambition and X-factor to pull off an upset and cap its resurgent season with a visit to the national championships, but statistically have an uphill battle. The Sun Devils lag about half a point behind the Huskies in RQS, average, season high and road high scores. That said, half a point isn’t a huge buffer if Washington makes errors, and with freshman Cairo Leonard-Baker—who has competed in all but one all around competition in her collegiate career and scored below 39.000 only once—the Sun Devils are formidable underdogs. They’ll need to minimize 9.700s from mid-lineup routines to contend and stay clear of the unseeded teams.

The three unseeded teams have performed similarly through 2018 and have the scoring ceiling to contend, but likely only if other teams make mistakes. With a top score of 196.775, West Virginia has the best shot, armed with a top-twenty vault rotation and a superstar group of upperclassmen. Junior Kirah Koshinski has RQSs over 9.900 on both vault and floor, and senior Zaakira Muhammad has a top score of 39.575 in the all around; these two will be the Mountaineers’ primary weapons.

Penn State is armed with two top-40 all arounders in Briannah Tsang and Lauren Bridgens and is ranked No. 11 on bars. Twelve of the Nittany Lions’ routines have reached 9.900 or higher this season, so their plausible ceiling is significantly higher than their season high of 196.675; they’ve been held down by struggles with consistency especially on beam, where only one gymnast is ranked inside the top 100. It would take a lot of magic for Penn State to put everything together under pressure, but at a home regional and in head coach Sarah Shire Brown’s first postseason at PSU, it’s not completely realistic for it to set a season high and qualify.

New Hampshire is likely on the outside looking in in terms of team qualification, but keep an eye out for its No. 17-ranked beam rotation. Led by No. 18 Casey Lauter, who has a 10.0 this season, the rotation has gone as high as 49.225 and is impressively consistent. Watch for junior all arounder Danielle Doolin, who has a high of 9.925 on floor, and freshman phenom Lauren Diggan, who has gone below 9.800 only twice this season on bars.

Individuals

National qualifying is challenging for individuals; the top two all around gymnasts not from a qualifying team go forward to nationals while event specialists have to win their event to make it to St. Louis; there are usually only a handful of individual event qualifiers per year across all six regionals.

If Florida or Washington fail to qualify, then Alicia Boren and Alex McMurtry lead the likely all around qualifying race, followed by Hailey Burleson and Evanni Roberson. But assuming they do, Arizona State’s freshman phenom Cairo Leonard-Baker is the biggest factor here. Ranked No. 15 with a high score of 39.575, her power and consistency will be tough to beat. Only three other all around competitors’ high scores exceed Leonard-Baker’s RQS; unless she makes a major error, she’s on fairly solid ground. The leader of those three is No. 26 Briannah Tsang of Penn State; her 2018 high score is marginally higher than Leonard-Baker’s, and her RQS is only hundredths lower. Zaakira Muhammad’s top score is the same as Leonard-Baker’s, and while she’s less consistent, she could easily qualify for the second-consecutive year. Lauren Bridgens of Penn State is also in the top-40 and could contend if she hits. Don’t lose sight of ASU’s Anne Kuhm, either; she doesn’t quite have the scoring ceiling of the others, but she’s very consistent.

To qualify as an event specialist, a gymnast is almost guaranteed to need a 9.900+ on their qualifying event—especially with Florida in the picture—so focus on individuals who have season highs over that mark. One of the strongest condenders is WVU’s Kirah Koshinski; she’s ranked No. 10 on vault and No. 33 on floor with a top score of 9.950 on each. Bridgens of Penn State and UNH’s Casey Lauter have perfect 10s on bars and beam, respectively, and Bridgens has a 9.925 on vault as well. Keep an eye out for her teammates Tsang and Sabrina Garcia if they don’t qualify as all arounders, too; Garcia has top scores over 9.900 on three events and Tsang has four. Muhammad is another all arounder with spectacular event high scores on every piece. Arizona State’s Kuhm and Leonard-Baker can similarly contend on individual events if they don’t make the all around, and Ashley Szafranski’s two events, bars and beam, can also score well.

It’s even more challenging to qualify to nationals as a non-team individual at regionals, and while all four individual all arounders are ranked in the top 100 nationally, they might not have the top scores to contend. They shouldn’t be overlooked, though; Jacey Baldovino and Jade Buford of Yale are both underclassmen who have made an immense impact on the team and could be back here next year. It’s always great to see Division II athletes advance to regionals too, and Maya Reimers on floor for Bridgeport is a can’t-miss performer; she’s ranked No. 50 and has a top score of 9.925.

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Article by Rebecca Scally