2018 NCAA Columbus Regional Preview

It’s finally that time of the year! We know where each of the top 36 teams in the country will travel to compete for a chance at advancing to nationals. In the days leading up to the championships, we’ll preview and analyze each of the six regionals, discussing which teams have a chance of moving on and which individual could qualify as well. Next on the list is the Columbus regional, featuring No. 3 UCLA, No. 10 Arkansas, No. 15 Boise State, No. 25 Ohio State, No. 33 Pittsburgh and No. 34 Kent State.

Don’t forget to enter your postseason predictions in the 2018 NCAA Gym Bracket Challenge! The deadline for submissions is Friday, April 6 at 7 p.m. ET.

The top-seeded UCLA Bruins should be fairly content with their draw; with a margin of around a point over the rest of the field in each RQS, average and high score, it’s difficult to conceive of a scenario where UCLA doesn’t advance. The Bruins have only one score below 197.000 in 2018, so even on a middling day it would be a challenge for two other teams to catch them. Starting on floor also suits the Bruins; it’s unlikely their No. 1-ranked floor rotation will be lowballed just because it’s in the first rotation, and while ending on a bye is never ideal, they’ll get to close their day with another strength with beam in the fifth rotation. Keep an eye out for Madison Kocian on bars; there have been hints that she’ll return there for postseason, and if she’s ready, she could make a huge impact in what’s been the least steady of UCLA’s events.

Arkansas is in a tenuous position, with only the narrowest of margins over Boise State and with five of its top six scores registered at home. Strong bars and beam rotations are essential for the Razorbacks, who are capable of 9.900s on those pieces for totals around 49.300; if beam gets stuck in the 9.850 range in the first rotation, they could be in trouble. Vault in particularly can be a liability, often struggling to crack 49.000. Arkansas will likely compete three all arounders: senior Amanda Wellick added floor back late in the main season to join SEC Freshman of the Year Sarah Shaffer and ultra-consistent Jessica Yamzon in that role.

MRGC champion Boise State will be eyeing the upset of Arkansas and the nationals berth that has eluded it so many times. The Broncos haven’t scored below 196.600 in March, including setting a season high on the road at Washington, and don’t have the home/away differential like Arkansas does. In fact, they’re not even counting the allowed three home scores, as four of their top six marks were scored on the road. The Broncos can struggle on beam, which will be their last rotation at regionals, so it’ll be thrilling to watch them attempt to close out an upset there if they perform well through the first three rotations. Watch for a key performance from No. 15 all arounder Shani Remme, as well as landings on vault, where the lineup features a strong slate of 10.0 starts but often struggles to control landings and score much above 9.850.

The remaining three teams are on the outside looking in for regionals qualification, but especially with a home regional, Ohio State does have the scoring ceiling to figure in if Arkansas and Boise have imperfect days. Bizarrely, the Buckeyes have alternated between scores in the 195s and 196s every meet since the third week of season—a streak of 10 scores—and if the pattern continues, they’ll be scoring lower this week after a 196.375 at Big Tens last weekend. However, if they can buck the trend (pun intended), they’re capable of a strong performance if senior Alexis Mattern steps up in the all around. Typical three-eventers Olivia Aepli, Jenna Swartzentruber and Jamie Stone have also registered 9.900+ on multiple pieces this season, and they’ll need to repeat those feats if Ohio State is going to stand a chance against the seeded teams.

Pittsburgh has become a fan favorite in 2018, soaring to qualify to regionals after finishing in the fifties last year. While it would take a great deal to go right for the Panthers to make a dream run to nationals, they can certainly turn in a memorable performance at regionals. Freshman Haley Brechwald has been an incredible weapon for Pitt, competing in the all around every week and only scoring below 39.000 three times. The Panthers are a bars team, so look for them to turn in a serious total in the first rotation.

Kent State likewise would have to reach to qualify to nationals, but nonetheless has some great storylines heading into likely its last meet of the season. Superstar Rachel Stypinski took a nasty fall on floor and hurt her ankle in the last week of regular season, which many feared would end her career. But she’s been spotted training bars on social media since. Even if that’s the only event she’s ready to compete, she’s ranked No. 15 nationally on it and is a huge weapon. Even without Stypinski, Kent State is a serious floor team; it’s gone up to 49.425 on that piece in 2018.

Individuals

Individual qualification to NCAA nationals is intensely competitive; only the top two all arounders who aren’t on a qualifying team advance, and event specialists can only qualify by winning or tying on their event. These few positions are often swept up by the top few non-qualifying teams, so it’s even more difficult for gymnasts who qualify to regionals without their team to advance—but a few in this group do have the potential to make it.

Assuming UCLA qualifies, whether the second spot goes to Arkansas or Boise State will have a major impact on the individual race. Boise’s Shani Remme is the highest-ranked all arounder of the group at No. 15 with a top score of 39.575. That top mark is matched by No. 20 Stypinski, who is coming back from an unidentified ankle injury and might not be able to compete all four. Remme’s teammate Courtney McGregor could also factor, with a top score of 39.500.

If Boise State qualifies and Stypinski isn’t fully fit, a clump of gymnasts ranked in the 40 to 50 range will face a close fight over the all around spots. Sarah Shaffer, Haley Brechwald and Jessica Yamzon have very similar average scores, though Shaffer has the highest ceiling of the three. Arkansas’ Amanda Wellick could also figure; she is unranked since she only added floor recently, but she has scored as high as 39.425. Individual qualifier Jovannah East of Bowling Green shares that top score.

It’s immensely challenging to qualify to nationals as an event specialist; typically only a handful of gymnasts qualify this way per year across all regionals, and it usually takes a score over 9.900. If Arkansas doesn’t qualify, expect Braie Speed to figure in on vault, as she’s ranked No. 23 and has a top score of 9.925 despite only competing the full-twisting Yurchenko. Alexis Mattern of Ohio State shares that top mark, and Mary Frances Bir of Boise has reached 9.950 with her beautiful pike front half and could factor if her team doesn’t qualify. On bars, Olivia Aepli of Ohio State is a frontrunner, topping out at 9.950, and three other Buckeyes have also broken the 9.900 mark. Lucy Brett of Pitt has also scored strongly, and four Razorbacks and two Broncos have great results.

On beam, it’s a similar story of “it depends whether Arkansas or Boise advances.” For Arkansas, Sophia Carter, Michaela Burton and Jessica Yamzon all have beam scores of 9.950+. Shani Remme of Boise could also figure in, as could Stypinski if healthy and Stone and Swartzentruber of Ohio State. Don’t be shocked if individual qualifiers India McPeak and Laura Mitchell contend as well; Mitchell has gone 9.950 twice this season and McPeak has been teasing a return of her standing full from elite days for postseason. Carter and Shaffer of Arkansas are the strongest contenders on floor, along with Remme of Boise State and Stone of Ohio State. Western Michigan’s Rachael Underwood qualified as an individual and, with a high score of 9.950, could also factor in.

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Article by Rebecca Scally