2018 NCAA Tuscaloosa Regional Preview

It’s finally that time of the year! We know where each of the top 36 teams in the country will travel to compete for a chance at advancing to nationals. In the days leading up to the championships, we’ll preview and analyze each of the six regionals, discussing which teams have a chance of moving on and which individual could qualify as well. First up is the Tuscaloosa regional, featuring No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Michigan, No. 18 Georgia, No. 22 Missouri, No. 23 Illinois and No. 36 Central Michigan.

Don’t forget to enter your postseason predictions in the 2018 NCAA Gym Bracket Challenge! The deadline for submissions is Friday, April 6 at 7 p.m. ET.

Alabama and Michigan are the easy picks to make it out of this regional, though they are by no means locks. This is perhaps the second most up-in-the-air regional after Raleigh. Alabama has a tendency to peak at the right moment, so expect the Crimson Tide to look on at home in Tuscaloosa—literally. They have been on a roll both home and away, hitting 196.925 or higher in every outing since February 2. The Tide hit their 197.525 season high twice at home, though they also scored their season low there as well, so this could go very well or, if disaster strikes, very badly. Alabama struggled on bars at SECs—the rotation was 9.7-heavy, hurt by an off routine from Kiana Winston—but a big beam rotation and solid vault and floor kept the Tide in second to upset Florida, a big confidence boost coming into this home regional. It is extremely unlikely that two teams here will top Alabama, but it is vulnerable to an upset by Michigan.

Michigan is also coming off of a big conference championship meet. The Wolverines dominated Big Tens, looking consistent and clean across all four events; they only had one fall in Champaign and went 24-for-24 the previous week at Big Fives. Michigan tends to be a heartbreaker during postseason; it missed the Super Six after a beamplosion last year and missed nationals entirely in 2016 also after a beamplosion at a home regional. That said, the Wolverines hit 197 or better in their last three away outings and upset Alabama in their season-opener. Michigan is very strong on beam, ranked No. 5, so starting on that event could allow the Wolverines to get out ahead and put pressure on the rest of the field from the start. They have kept routines simple and clean rather than adding in unnecessarily risky difficulty. Emma McLean added her Yurchenko 1.5 back at Big Tens after doing fulls for several weeks due to a bruised heel, but she sat it in competition (the Wolverines’ only fall of the meet). Floor is dominated by D passes—don’t expect to see upgrades since the clean, slightly easier tumbling has been scoring so well. Michigan’s high score tops Alabama’s by 0.025, but the Wolverines put up that total at home at the beginning of the season and haven’t quite gotten that high away. That said, if the Tide falters on bars again, Michigan will have an opening to win the meet.

Georgia is the underdog in Tuscaloosa. The Gymdogs had a very rocky start to their season, but this is Georgia. This is Courtney Kupets. This is Suzanne Yoculan. Don’t underestimate what all that means. On a hit day, Georgia can score as well as the top two teams, with a season high score that matches Alabama’s. That said, the Gymdogs have only hit 197 or better at home while away totals have been held to the mid-196s. In the early session at SECs, Georgia hit 24-for-24 but still only scored a 196.350. Having six routines on all four events gives the Gymdogs some cushion, a luxury they didn’t have for most of the season. But if they are going to challenge for one of the top two spots, the first half of lineups needs to step up and hit. Georgia starts on a bye, which could either give the team time to focus or time to psych themselves out.  

Missouri, Illinois and Central Michigan are long shots for nationals, but keep in mind that this is gymnastics and anything can happen on any day. Don’t count any one of these teams out. All of Missouri’s big scores have come at home, but the Tigers have the ability to beat big opponents; they upset Florida with their season high 196.925. That total won’t be enough to top the three seeded teams at their best, but Missouri has the ability to keep things interesting. If, by the third rotation, the Tigers have scored well on floor and vault, start paying attention. A 9.7-heavy early vault and/or floor rotation are what can keep the Tigers down, so if those scores trend toward 9.8s, this team could be dangerous.

Illinois has been stunning teams throughout the recent weeks. The Illini starting the season very slowly but burst out to win their Big Five meet, taking advantage of their ability to stay focused as other teams faltered, coming in third at Big Tens over two higher ranked teams. Vault holds the Illini down: They put up six Yurchenko fulls and tend to lack control on the landings. That said, Illinois scored its season high on the road and will start on its best two events. If it has a big total after two rotations, keep an eye on the Illini. They would need top teams here to falter, but they have proven that they are capable of taking advantage of others’ mistakes if the opportunity arises.

Take a look at Central Michigan’s season high. They scored a 197.025 at MACs, proving that the Chippewas can play with the big teams. Remember week one when they were one of the most prepared teams and ranked No. 3 in the country? That said, CMU can also fall into the 194s and even 193s on a bad day. To keep up with the teams here, the Chippewas’ strong all arounders Denelle Pedrick and Gianna Plaska will need to lead the way. They get preferred rotation order, which could be a boost.

Individuals

For individuals on non-qualifying teams to advance to nationals on an event, they must win that event; the top two all arounders not on advancing teams also qualify as individuals.

Assuming Alabama and Michigan qualify to nationals, Georgia’s Rachel Dickson and Sydney Snead and Illinois’ Rae Balthazor are all arounders to keep an eye on. All three have suffered consistency issues, so watch Illinois’ Nicole Biondi as well. Beam could get very interesting: Illinois’ Bridget Hodan, CMU’s Katy Clements and Missouri’s Britney Ward are all capable of big beam totals that could top or tie scores from Alabama and Michigan. If Michigan doesn’t qualify, expect Paige Zaziski and Brianna Brown to challenge for the all around spots and for Emma McLean to advance on vault and/or floor. If disaster strikes for Alabama, Nickie Guerrero could easily challenge for her three events, and Kiana Winston is a big bars threat and also excels on beam and floor.

There are some individuals here who are threats as well, though keep in mind that it is much harder for an individual to score well because they lack their team support and the usual team atmosphere. Northern Illinois’ Ashley Potts and Katherine Prentice have an outside shot if some of the top all arounders miss. Kierstin Sokolowski from Lindenwood is another dark horse. She can compete with the best beamers in the country and is very capable of winning that title here. She can also score well on her Yurchenko full, so keep an eye on her vault score if it’s is a sloppy event for the teams in Tuscaloosa.

There are several DII gymnasts here, which is very exciting, but outside of Sokolowski they are unlikely to advance. They are focused on USAG nationals the weekend following regionals, and competing here is an extra treat in their seasons. For the MIC and MAC individuals, qualifying to regionals is a big win. Though they are very unlikely to qualify, they should be pleased that they made it into a regional.

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Article by Emily Minehart